2011 Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs (APSIA)

JOURNAL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 2011 Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs (APSIA) and The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Princeton University ROBERTSON HALL PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRINCETON, NJ 08544-1013 HTTP://WWW.PRINCETON.EDU/~JPIA The Journal of Public and International Affairs is a joint publication of the Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs (APSIA) and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University. It seeks to publish scholarly articles on a diverse range of subjects, covering the areas of international affairs, development studies, and domestic policy. JPIA is an annual publication that accepts submissions from any advanced student at an APSIA institution. Submissions are reviewed in a blind screening process by an editorial board comprised of students at Princeton University and contributing editors from other APSIA schools. Subscription or copy requests may be sent to [email protected] or JPIA, Robertson Hall, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544-1013. Copyright © 2011, the Trustees of Princeton University 1. World Politics—Periodicals. 2. International Relations—Periodicals. 3. Policy sciences— Periodicals. I. Association of Professional Schools in International Affairs. II. Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. III. Title: JPIA. ISSN: 1070-521x CONTENTS Letter from the Editors v Articles 1 Improving the American Health Benefit Exchanges’ Capacity for Increasing Access to Affordable Health Insurance 7 Christian D. Phillips, Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs 2 A Step Short of the Bomb: Explaining the Strategy of Nuclear Hedging 29 Ches Thurber, Tufts University The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy 3 Balancing Financial Terror: The Game Theoretic Dynamics of Massive Debt 48 Gregory Hudson Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva 4 Targeted Killings: Does Drone Warfare Violate International Law? 68 Rebecca Perlman, Tufts University The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy 5 Understanding State Resistance to International Regulation of Private Military and Security Companies 88 Adam Ross, London School of Economics 6 Homegrown Islamist Terrorism: Assessing the Threat 109 Wesley Craig Heinkel and Alexandra Lindsay Mace, University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public and International Affairs 7 Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Regional Trade in the East African Community 137 Mary Yang, Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs 8 Between Market Blip and Municipal Bloodbath: Understand Short- and Long-Term Crisis Avoidance in the Municipal Bond Market 155 Katie Cristol, Princeton University Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Editors-in-Chief Sarita Vanka Lynn von Koch-Liebert Contributing Editors Carleton University University of Michigan Norman Paterson School of International Affairs Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy Jeff Ahonoukoun Michael Olender George Stankow Sophie Hashem Stephanie Tissot Princeton University Tufts University Woodrow Wilson School of Public and Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy International Affairs Daniel Brutlag Elise Crane Dan Fitchler Will Wagner Graduate Institute of International and University of Pittsburg Development Studies, Geneva Graduate School of Public and Sandra Paola Alvarez International Affairs A.S.M. Ali Ashraf University of California San Diego Graduate School of International Relations and Syracuse University Pacific Studies The Maxwell School of Citizenship and Elisabeth Best Public Affairs Selina Howe Carter Minhae Choi London School of Economics and Political Science University of Washington Erica Barbosa Matina Stevis Evans School of Public Affairs Annamaria Pagano University of Denver Yale University Josef Korbel School of International Studies The Whitney and Betty MacMillan Center for Clifton Martin International and Area Studies Hanna Azemati Julie McCarthy National University of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Aarushi Sinha Naomi Jacob JPIA Princeton Staff Associate Editors Nazir Harb Andrew Shaver Sarah Sieloff Assistant Editors Ian Aucoin Elina Sarkisova Sophia Peters Mary Yang Letter from the Editors We are pleased to present the 2011 edition of the Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA). Now in its 22nd year, JPIA continues to publish exceptional work of graduate students in public and international affairs. It has provided a unique forum for young scholars to present original research, analysis, and commentary on issues of domestic and international concern. JPIA also provides an opportunity for professional and intellectual exchange among the members of the Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs (APSIA). Each year, JPIA solicits contributions from graduate students at the APSIA member schools. Contributing editors from each school play a crucial role in screening articles and working with their school’s authors to prepare articles for submission. Each spring, contributing editors from the United States, Europe, and Canada meet at Princeton University for a reading weekend to debate and discuss the merits of the submissions. The eight articles in this volume were selected following a rigorous evaluation of sixty-two articles from twenty schools. The editorial team used electronic pre- screening, scoring, and editing throughout the selection process, which allowed the editors to spend more time providing detailed substantive feedback to the contributors. Following the reading weekend, the Princeton editorial team worked closely with each of the authors to provide multiple rounds of substantive feedback and editing. The aim of this year’s journal is to showcase domestic and international policy issues that are currently being debated by policy makers. Christian Phillips examines the American Health Benefit Exchanges, which was created by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) to improve the affordability of health insurance in the United States. Her paper evaluates whether the Exchanges have fulfilled the conditions for a competitive market for consumers and to what extent states can enhance the ACA regulations to improve affordability and coverage. Philips concludes that while the Exchanges are an improvement, states should consider additional measures to help protect consumers, particularly those facing health crises. Two articles this year examine state behavior and its impact on foreign policy decisions. Ches Thurber investigates why some states choose to conduct explicit nuclear testing while others simply hedge their capabilities. He argues that understanding these motivations can help policy makers deal with the rapid spread of nuclear technology. The paper adopts a case study approach and draws several conclusions that are then applied to dealing with Iranian nuclear situation. Gregory Hudson’s paper uses a game theory model to examine the “balance of financial terror” between the U.S. and China. His paper tests several scenarios to determine the optimal move for each actor. Even though China is a significant holder of U.S. debt, Hudson’s game theory models conclude that neither actor can unilaterally change the current status quo without harming their own interests. Moving to international law and regulation, Rebecca Perlman’s article uses the framework of international law to evaluate the use of drones in targeted killings. Her article analyzes the policy from three perspectives and concludes that targeted killings are not supported under the current international regime. She recommends that the U.S. should reframe its legal arguments, tighten definitions governing “self-defense,” and work with the international community to propose regulations that reduce the legal uncertainties. Adam Ross discusses the role of private military and security companies (PMSCs), specifically identifying why states do not wish to regulate this industry. He argues that states and private citizens benefit from an unregulated industry, which diminishes the momentum needed to create international regulation. His article concludes by offering potential approaches to motivate states, particularly the United States to regulate PMSCs. Wes Heinkel and Alexandra Mace study the issue of homegrown terrorism in the United States. They studied twenty-seven terrorist plots and drew conclusions about the frequency, profile, and intentions of the perpetrators. The authors conclude that despite the recent media and political coverage, there are few facts to support the idea that the homegrown terrorist threat and radicalization of Muslim-Americans has increased post-9/11. Mary Yang uses econometric analysis to test the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade within the East African Community (EAC). Her paper is pre- mised on the argument that by creating a monetary union, the EAC can increase intra-regional trade and economic development. Her findings show a negative relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility, leading to the conclusion that a common currency among EAC countries would positively impact trade. Turning back to domestic politics, Katie Cristol examines the challenges facing the municipal market with a focus on dispelling the current media attention on short-term problems. She argues that short-term threats such as default and changes to macroeconomic policy are often

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