Preparing for the Worst – Conscription and Reserve Forces in the Nordics Author: Järvenpää, Pauli Publication Date: October 2016 Category: Analysis
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Title: Preparing for the Worst – Conscription and Reserve Forces in the Nordics Author: Järvenpää, Pauli Publication date: October 2016 Category: Analysis Cover page photo: Army conscripts attend a base training at the armoured battalion in Setermoen, northern Norway on August 11, 2016 (AFP / Kyrre Lien) Keywords: conscription, military, reserve, training Disclaimer: The views and opinions contained in this analysis are those of its author only ISSN 2228-2076 ©International Centre for Defence and Security 63/4 Narva Rd., 10152 Tallinn, Estonia [email protected], www.icds.ee training that provides them a solid foundation for such operations.3 The modern system of military conscription dates all the way back to the French Revolution In a nutshell, conscription is a time-tested way of in the 1790’s, and it soon thereafter became the providing military training to young men (and means of creating large and powerful armed now also young women) cheaply. But can con- forces. Most major European states conscripted script forces handle their tasks with the level of their male populations at a certain young age, professionalism that is required in today’s battle- trained them, and then kept them in their re- field? Through the build-up of the Russian mili- serve force, giving them periodical refresher tary, a “new normal” has been established in training exercises to maintain their military read- northern Europe. It can be argued that Russia’s iness. swift annexation of Crimea with the use of the “little green men”, and a subsequent “hybrid In many countries, conscription was considered war” in Ukraine, with its military, political, eco- not only as a method of building up military de- nomic, cyber, information and even cultural di- fence but also as a way of instilling maturity in mensions - as well as the “snap exercises” de- young males, creating social equality, fostering signed to improve the readiness of its troops - social consciousness, breaking down class divi- have set new standards. So, the central question sions, and in general immersing the country’s is: Can conscript forces fight effectively in the male adults in activities supporting the state and contemporary environment? its structures.1 These developments bring us to a set of crucial During the Cold War, all countries in northern questions: Can a conscription system produce Europe adopted a system of military conscrip- troops that are able to answer these challenges, tion, including the Soviet Union. After the Cold or will the answers be found only by creating War was over, most countries in the region came and maintaining fully or near-fully professional to the conclusion that they could scale down military forces? What are the weaknesses of a their militaries in order to enjoy a “peace divi- system that conscripts most of its soldiers, and dend”; in other words, they sought to save mon- what are its possible strengths? Specifically and ey by cutting their defence costs in order to use most critically, how will the countries that have these resources for other societal needs. Out opted to base their defences on conscription be went territorial defence, and in came the projec- able to maintain a necessary level of readiness tion of force in an expeditionary way. In this for their troops? process, many of the countries dropped con- scription and adopted fully all-voluntary or near- This paper aims at providing background materi- fully professional forces.2 al to answering three separate questions: The only exception in the Nordic-Baltic region 1. Can conscription produce troops that are was Finland. Against the fashion of the times, sufficiently prepared for today’s highly the Finns have maintained their universal con- demanding battlefield? How can prepa- scription, which also has given them an oppor- ration be measured? tunity to create capabilities for participating 2. Can conscription produce troops that abroad in peacekeeping and crisis management can be mobilized quickly enough to meet operations. Finnish conscripts who volunteer for today’s requirements? international operations are given a special 1 For a concise analysis of various pros and cons of military con- scription, see Matthias Bieri, “Military Conscription in Europe: New Relevance”, ISN ETH Zurich, 27 October 2015. 2 Bieri, op.cit., concludes that between 1990 and 2013, 24 Europe- 3 For details, see “International Crisis Management” The Finnish an countries ceased to practice military conscription. Defence Forces. 3. Can the small countries of the Nordic- annual basis (as an annual “cohort group”, i.e. Baltic region acquire and maintain the the total number of citizens born any given weapons systems required by today’s year), there have been about 38,000 fit males battlefield standards; and more specifi- and 36,000 females per year. For example, in cally, can they rely on conscription to 2015, the exact figures were 37,913 males and train soldiers to use those highly sophis- 35,865 females. In the same year, 567 female ticated systems? volunteers finished their service as conscripts.4 The countries studied in this report are Den- A unique Danish feature is that all young con- mark, Finland, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden. script-age men are called up (and all conscript- Most attention will be focused on Finland, for age young women invited) to attend a so-called the simple reason that Finland is the country in Day of the Armed Forces, which was previously the Nordic-Baltic region that most relies on con- known as the examination day of the Conscrip- scription to produce its military reserves. At the tion Board. There, they are given a chance to end of this paper, general conclusions will be get familiarized with various opportunities to drawn on the basis of “best practices”, focusing volunteer for one of the armed forces’ basic on how relevant the experiences described in training programmes. this report are for other countries in the region, During the Armed Forces Day, the young men such as Estonia. and women also undergo a medical examination and take an intelligence test. They can also ob- tain information on the various types of national service available (including non-military options) and watch videos on the training programmes of the armed forces and the Danish Emergency Management Agency in order for them to famil- iarize themselves with what is available in the armed forces and other security-producing au- thorities in Denmark.5 In Denmark, all male citizens between the ages 18 and 30 are liable for conscription. All women Since there are more young people than open also have the right to serve, if they so wish. conscript positions, the process of who is to be However, not all the young Danish citizens are conscripted is determined by drawing of lots. deemed to be needed for military training. The The lot numbers range from 1 to 35,000, to re- selection of who will actually serve in the Armed flect the total number of young men in the an- Forces is made by lottery. As a result, the major- nual cohort group. First, those who have volun- ity of the Danish conscripts are volunteers. teered to serve are drafted as a priority, regard- less of their lot numbers. From the remaining How does the Danish system work? Especially, pool of conscripts only those who have drawn how does it select those who are called up for the very lowest numbers are drafted, until the conscript military training? necessary number of conscripts has been reached. Those young men with high enough First of all, the total manpower available for ballot numbers are not called up to do conscript military service in Denmark for the years 2010- 2015 has been relatively stable, altogether about 2.4 million citizens (all males and females be- tween ages 16 and 49). Of this total, the number of those mentally and physically fit for military 5 Major Enrico Schou, Chief of Conscript Management Section, Danish Defence Personnel Organization, Conscript Management, service has been about 2 million. Counted on an Personnel Organization, Danish Defence, DDPO-27-10-2015. service at all, but are instead transferred to a days, 255 days or 347 days of service, depending “reservist” category.6 on the tasks in the reserves they are trained for), they are eligible for call-ups for reserve refresher There has been a temporary reduction in the training exercises.9 intake of conscripts between 2011 and 2014 as a result of the lowering of the actual needs of the All eligible draftees are evaluated in special call- armed forces. The annual need for conscripts in up examinations, which determine whether or the three military services (the Army, the Navy not they are fit to serve without endangering and the Air Force) has been 4,100 conscripts for their own or the other conscripts’ safety. These the Army, 400 conscripts for the Navy, and 300 examinations take place during the year when conscripts for the Air Force during this period.7 the draftee turns 18 years old. Information con- cerning a draftee’s fitness to serve is collected at Military conscripts generally serve four months, the call-up examination from the draftee him- with some exceptions: conscripts in the Guard self, from a medical examination, from a general Hussar Regiment Mounted Squadron serve aptitude test, and from information received twelve months, conscripts aboard the Royal from the other public authorities on the basis of Yacht Dannebrog serve nine months, and con- the law on conscription.10 scripts in the Royal Life Guards serve eight months.8 Conscripts assigned to the Danish Since 1995, it has also been possible for Finnish Emergency Management Authority – of which female citizens to voluntarily take part in general there have been about 420 in recent years – also conscription.