Preparing for the Worst – Conscription and Reserve Forces in the Nordics Author: Järvenpää, Pauli Publication Date: October 2016 Category: Analysis

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Title: Preparing for the Worst – Conscription and Reserve Forces in the Nordics Author: Järvenpää, Pauli Publication date: October 2016 Category: Analysis

Cover page photo: Army conscripts attend a base training at the armoured battalion in Setermoen, northern Norway on August 11, 2016 (AFP / Kyrre Lien)

Keywords: conscription, military, reserve, training Disclaimer: The views and opinions contained in this analysis are those of its author only

ISSN 2228-2076 ©International Centre for Defence and Security 63/4 Narva Rd., 10152 Tallinn, Estonia [email protected], www.icds.ee

training that provides them a solid foundation for such operations.3 The modern system of military conscription dates all the way back to the French Revolution In a nutshell, conscription is a time-tested way of in the 1790’s, and it soon thereafter became the providing military training to young men (and means of creating large and powerful armed now also young women) cheaply. But can con- forces. Most major European states conscripted script forces handle their tasks with the level of their male populations at a certain young age, professionalism that is required in today’s battle- trained them, and then kept them in their re- field? Through the build-up of the Russian mili- serve force, giving them periodical refresher tary, a “new normal” has been established in training exercises to maintain their military read- northern Europe. It can be argued that Russia’s iness. swift annexation of Crimea with the use of the “little green men”, and a subsequent “hybrid In many countries, conscription was considered war” in Ukraine, with its military, political, eco- not only as a method of building up military de- nomic, cyber, information and even cultural di- fence but also as a way of instilling maturity in mensions - as well as the “snap exercises” de- young males, creating social equality, fostering signed to improve the readiness of its troops - social consciousness, breaking down class divi- have set new standards. So, the central question sions, and in general immersing the country’s is: Can conscript forces fight effectively in the male adults in activities supporting the state and contemporary environment? its structures.1 These developments bring us to a set of crucial During the Cold War, all countries in northern questions: Can a conscription system produce Europe adopted a system of military conscrip- troops that are able to answer these challenges, tion, including the Soviet Union. After the Cold or will the answers be found only by creating War was over, most countries in the region came and maintaining fully or near-fully professional to the conclusion that they could scale down military forces? What are the weaknesses of a their militaries in order to enjoy a “peace divi- system that conscripts most of its soldiers, and dend”; in other words, they sought to save mon- what are its possible strengths? Specifically and ey by cutting their defence costs in order to use most critically, how will the countries that have these resources for other societal needs. Out opted to base their defences on conscription be went territorial defence, and in came the projec- able to maintain a necessary level of readiness tion of force in an expeditionary way. In this for their troops? process, many of the countries dropped conscription and adopted fully all-voluntary or near- This paper aims at providing background materi- fully professional forces.2 al to answering three separate questions:

The only exception in the Nordic-Baltic region 1. Can conscription produce troops that are was Finland. Against the fashion of the times, sufficiently prepared for today’s highly the Finns have maintained their universal con- demanding battlefield? How can prepa- scription, which also has given them an oppor- ration be measured? tunity to create capabilities for participating 2. Can conscription produce troops that abroad in peacekeeping and crisis management can be mobilized quickly enough to meet operations. Finnish conscripts who volunteer for today’s requirements? international operations are given a special

1 For a concise analysis of various pros and cons of military conscription, see Matthias Bieri, “Military Conscription in Europe: New Relevance”, ISN ETH Zurich, 27 October 2015. 2 Bieri, op.cit., concludes that between 1990 and 2013, 24 Europe- 3 For details, see “International Crisis Management” The Finnish an countries ceased to practice military conscription. Defence Forces.

3. Can the small countries of the Nordic- annual basis (as an annual “cohort group”, i.e. Baltic region acquire and maintain the the total number of citizens born any given weapons systems required by today’s year), there have been about 38,000 fit males battlefield standards; and more specifi- and 36,000 females per year. For example, in cally, can they rely on conscription to 2015, the exact figures were 37,913 males and train soldiers to use those highly sophis- 35,865 females. In the same year, 567 female ticated systems? volunteers finished their service as conscripts.4

The countries studied in this report are Den- A unique Danish feature is that all young con- mark, Finland, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden. script-age men are called up (and all conscript- Most attention will be focused on Finland, for age young women invited) to attend a so-called the simple reason that Finland is the country in Day of the Armed Forces, which was previously the Nordic-Baltic region that most relies on con- known as the examination day of the Conscrip- scription to produce its military reserves. At the tion Board. There, they are given a chance to end of this paper, general conclusions will be get familiarized with various opportunities to drawn on the basis of “best practices”, focusing volunteer for one of the armed forces’ basic on how relevant the experiences described in training programmes. this report are for other countries in the region, During the Armed Forces Day, the young men such as Estonia. and women also undergo a medical examination and take an intelligence test. They can also ob- tain information on the various types of national service available (including non-military options) and watch videos on the training programmes of the armed forces and the Danish Emergency Management Agency in order for them to famil- iarize themselves with what is available in the armed forces and other security-producing authorities in Denmark.5 In Denmark, all male citizens between the ages 18 and 30 are liable for conscription. All women Since there are more young people than open also have the right to serve, if they so wish. conscript positions, the process of who is to be However, not all the young Danish citizens are conscripted is determined by drawing of lots. deemed to be needed for military training. The The lot numbers range from 1 to 35,000, to re- selection of who will actually serve in the Armed flect the total number of young men in the an- Forces is made by lottery. As a result, the major- nual cohort group. First, those who have volun- ity of the Danish conscripts are volunteers. teered to serve are drafted as a priority, regardless of their lot numbers. From the remaining How does the Danish system work? Especially, pool of conscripts only those who have drawn how does it select those who are called up for the very lowest numbers are drafted, until the conscript military training? necessary number of conscripts has been reached. Those young men with high enough First of all, the total manpower available for ballot numbers are not called up to do conscript military service in Denmark for the years 2010- 2015 has been relatively stable, altogether about 2.4 million citizens (all males and females between ages 16 and 49). Of this total, the number of those mentally and physically fit for military 5 Major Enrico Schou, Chief of Conscript Management Section, Danish Defence Personnel Organization, Conscript Management, service has been about 2 million. Counted on an Personnel Organization, Danish Defence, DDPO-27-10-2015.

service at all, but are instead transferred to a days, 255 days or 347 days of service, depending “reservist” category.6 on the tasks in the reserves they are trained for), they are eligible for call-ups for reserve refresher There has been a temporary reduction in the training exercises.9 intake of conscripts between 2011 and 2014 as a result of the lowering of the actual needs of the All eligible draftees are evaluated in special call- armed forces. The annual need for conscripts in up examinations, which determine whether or the three military services (the Army, the Navy not they are fit to serve without endangering and the Air Force) has been 4,100 conscripts for their own or the other conscripts’ safety. These the Army, 400 conscripts for the Navy, and 300 examinations take place during the year when conscripts for the Air Force during this period.7 the draftee turns 18 years old. Information concerning a draftee’s fitness to serve is collected at Military conscripts generally serve four months, the call-up examination from the draftee him- with some exceptions: conscripts in the Guard self, from a medical examination, from a general Hussar Regiment Mounted Squadron serve aptitude test, and from information received twelve months, conscripts aboard the Royal from the other public authorities on the basis of Yacht Dannebrog serve nine months, and con- the law on conscription.10 scripts in the Royal Life Guards serve eight months.8 Conscripts assigned to the Danish Since 1995, it has also been possible for Finnish Emergency Management Authority – of which female citizens to voluntarily take part in general there have been about 420 in recent years – also conscription. In order to qualify for voluntary serve nine months. In 2013, 19.3 per cent of military service, a female must be a citizen of conscripts were female. Finland and at least 18 years but not yet 30 years of age, and capable of participating in the mili- As is seen here, the Danish conscription is very tary service under the same premises as the selective. The Danish armed forces are effective- male citizens.11 The number of females who ly recruited from a pool of volunteers. Conscripts seek to do military service on a voluntary basis are not called up at all unless there are not has stabilized to around 500-550 women each enough volunteers to fill the required slots. As a year. However, in 2015, a record number of 818 consequence, there are no notable military re- women sought to do military service.12 serves in Denmark. Conscripts are registered for three years after finishing their service, ready to According to the latest available figures, the be called back to the Danish Total Defence, if total manpower available for military service in needed. According to the political agreement Finland in 2014 was 1,155,368 males (men aged concerning the Danish armed forces in 2013, the 16-49 years) and 1,106,193 females. Manpower current conscription system will remain in place fit for military service was 995,151 males and until at least the year 2020. 912,983 females. That year, 32,599 males and 31,416 females reached military conscription age.13

All able-bodied Finnish male citizens, starting Legislation for implementing military service is from the year they turn 18 and continuing until the responsibility of the Finnish Ministry of De- they turn 60, are subject to universal conscrip- fence. Regional Defence Forces´ offices are re- tion by Article 127 of the Finnish Constitution. 9“Conscription in Finland”, Wikipedia. After their mandatory conscription period (165 10“Siviilipalveluslaki”, Finlex. 11 Ibid. 12 It will be interesting to see whether this was just a one year’s 6 Ibid., p.5. peak, or if it will represent a longer term trend. 7 Ibid., p. 18. “Conscription - a Finnish choice” The Finnish Defence Forces. 8“Denmark”, War Resistors International. 13 See, “Finland”, The Military Balance 2014, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, Routledge, London, February 2016.

sponsible for all matters relating to conscripts It is possible in Finland to apply for exemption and reservists.14 from military service based on personal beliefs. In this case, the applicant is obliged by law to Service time for the conscripts varies between perform non-military civil service for 347 days. three options: 165, 255 or 347 days. On the basis Such work usually takes place in social and of conscripts’ performance during the mandato- health care services, teaching, cultural services, ry eight-week long introductory training period or civil defence and environmental protection (“boot camp”), as well as their educational back- duties.19 Such exemptions are valid only for ground and general aptitude, some are selected peace-time. to continue their military training in reserve officer schools (RO), reserve non-commissioned Training for the conscripts can be divided into officer (NCO) schools, or specialist’s training three distinct periods, the first of which is basic programmes. Only 5-7 per cent of the conscripts training. It lasts about three months and concen- are selected for RO training, with about one trates on teaching the conscripts the elementary third assigned to reserve NCO training; both individual skills of a soldier. The second phase serve for 347 days.15 A majority of the conscripts lasts about two months, and it is the period dur- continue their training as specialists or as com- ing which the conscripts will be introduced to mon soldiers, serving 255 and 165 days respec- special tasks required in their military branch. tively.16 Finally, there is the period during which the conscripts, now equipped with individual and special As enshrined in the Finnish Government Defence skills of being a soldier, form a unit (platoon or White Books (the latest available from the cur- company), and they are training and exercising rent year 2016), it is government policy for the as a military unit. This is a particularly important entire annual cohort group of men (men reach- phase of training for the conscripts, since they ing conscription age on any given year) to be are now conducting their training in their real called up and trained. The latest full information war-time units with the unit’s real war-time available for the annual cohort group of male leaders. When they will after their conscript citizens is for those who were born in 1983. In service be called up for refresher training, they that group, 76.5 per cent were fit and willing to are already familiar with both of their leaders serve as conscripts. The percentage of those and their fellow reservists.20 who were judged unsuitable for service in the call-up examination or who for some reason All in all, obligatory conscription continues to be interrupted their conscript service was 17.1 per highly popular in Finland, as it tends to be in the cent. Another 5.6 per cent of the cohort group whole Nordic-Baltic region. In national Finnish chose non-military alternative service.17 As men- opinion polls, more than 70 per-cent support tioned above, annually an average of about 550- general conscription, and more than 80 per cent 600 female citizens have chosen to participate in say that they would fight for their country, no the voluntary general conscription and to do matter how high the odds against them.21 This military service. Altogether almost 7,000 Finnish has not changed very much over the years. What women have taken advantage of this opportuni- has changed is the number of reservists to be ty since 1995, when military conscription for called to service in case there would be a need female Finnish citizens became possible.18

19 There is a small number of Jehova’s Witnesses (60-70 individuals annually) who refuse to do any service offered. Also, those who have a permanent residence in the Åland Islands are exempted 14 “Organisation of the Ministry of Defence”, Ministry of Defence. from military service but can attend on a voluntary basis. 15 “Conscription – a Finnish choice” The Finnish Defence Forces. “Conscription in Finland”, Wikipedia. 20 16 “Conscription in Finland”, Wikipedia. “Sodan ajan joukkojen tuottamisen ja perustamisen peri- 17 Interviews with personnel experts from the Finnish Defence aatteita”, Pääesikunta, Muistio, 5.11.2014, p, 8. Staff, Helsinki, 5 November 2014. 21 See, “Finns’ Opinions on Foreign and Security Policy, Defence, 18 See footnote 17. and Security Issues”, Ministry of Defence.

for full mobilization. Whereas in the 1980’s the stance due to poor health or pressing work size of the fully mobilized Finnish Defence Forces schedules. 24 was still about 700,000, that number has come To enhance readiness, in April and May 2015, down, step-by-step, so that in 2015 it was about the Finnish military authorities sent a letter to 230,000 (154,000 for the army, 20,000 for the about 900,000 reservists. The letter started by navy, 24,000 for the air force, and 11,000 for the reminding the recipient that “universal conscrip- border guards). About 95 per cent of these tion is the cornerstone of Finland’s defence ca- troops consist of reservists. This change does not pability” and continued by explaining each re- reflect the number of reservists who have reservist’s war-time duties before then closing by ceived military training, but rather the change in asking them to respond with up-to-date contact the strategic and operational evaluations of how information, details of their occupations, and many of the reservists would be needed to de- other relevant information. 25 fend the country in a worst case scenario.22 Later on that same year, the military authorities Furthermore, the Finnish military has recognized revealed their plan to move towards establishing that the system of conscription-produced re- simpler call-up processes in order to lend greater serves might not be able to react in foreseeable flexibility and higher readiness to the conscrip- crisis situations quickly enough. When the situation system. There was a proposal by the Minis- tion was reviewed in the 2000’s, it came as ra- try of Defence to amend the existing Law on ther a nasty surprise that even the key units had Conscription so that in certain situations the not been given a sufficient number and quality Chief of Defence will get the authority to sum- of refresher exercises, and that military registers mon up to 25,000 reservists to active duty im- were missing data as basic as reservists’ ad- mediately, rather than letting them know of dresses. Furthermore, the reservists’ occupa- their call-up three full months in advance.26 Re- tions were for the most part not even known, let servists included in such units would be no more alone taken into account in placing the reservists than 20-25 years old, would be informed of their in their military tasks.23 placement in such rapid action units at the end This prompted the authorities to take several of their conscription service, and would be asked measures that have increased the speed at to sign an agreement with the Defence Forces to which they can call up reservists for refresher join their units immediately under all circum- training. Under current legislation, reservists stances. At the same time, the Ministry of De- must receive notice three months before the fence is doubling the number of regular reserv- beginning of the refresher exercise. As a peace- ists included in refresher training exercises from time regulation this makes good sense, since it the past year’s 18,000 to 36,000 starting in gives the reservists plenty of time to arrange 2016.27 their civilian matters in order to participate in There is also a voluntary defence organization in the exercise. Or, as it is the case in about a quar- Finland called “Maanpuolustuskoulu- ter of the training orders, the reservists can tell the authorities that they cannot attend, for in- 24 Interviews with Finnish military authorities in 2013-2015 by this author. 25 “Reserviläiskirjeet aiheuttaneet pettymyksiä – "Sodankäynti on nuorten miesten hommaa" Yle Uutist. 26 After some debate it turns out that the principle of rapid call-ups will be kept, but the authority to make the call-ups will stay with 22 “Sodanajan joukkojen tuottamisen ja perustamisen periaatteita”, the President of the Republic, not with the Chief of Defence. For Pääesikunta, Muistio, 5.11.2014, p.6. further discussion, see “Varusmiehistä kootaan uusia valmiusjouk- 23 It is only fair to point out that such reviews were periodically koja – niiden sotilaat kohtaisivat yllätyshyökkäyksessä vihollisen carried out by the military authorities, but the fact was that the ensimmäisenä” Helsingin Sanomat, 25 July, 2016. badly needed changes were not made due to lack of resources. 27 Tuomas Kaarkoski, ”Nykyistä nopeampaa reagointia”, Re- Several interviews with the Finnish military authorities in 2013- serviläinen, 2/2016. See also Ossi Mansikka, “Reserviläisten pak- 2015 by this author. kokertaus kerää kritiikkiä”, Helsingin Sanomat, 12 March 2016.

tusyhdistys”, or MPK, (National Defence Training suitable male citizens without criminal court Association of Finland) which offers an oppor- conviction between ages 19 and 28, but only tunity for those who would like to receive mili- voluntary female citizens. tary and non-military security and defence relat- Mandatory military draft was suspended by the ed training on a voluntary basis. In 2015, MPK Minister of National Defence in September 2008 arranged training for about 50,000 participants – four years after the country joined NATO and in about 250 training events. Two-thirds of that as part of the focus to build smaller and lighter training was funded by the Defence Forces to force for international crisis management opera- support and supplement the training it provides tions. Between 2008 and 2012, the government to reservists.28 established a short basic training course to at- tract volunteers who, upon successful completion, we supposed to either become full-time The Lithuanian National Defence System (the members of the Lithuanian Armed Forces or join Lithuanian Armed Forces, which are organized the reserves. However, this had proven largely into Land Forces, Navy, Air Force Special Opera- inadequate to cope with the personnel needs of tions Forces, Logistics Command and Training the armed forces. Conscription was reintroduced and Doctrine Command, as well as the Ministry again in 2015, thus making Lithuania the very of National Defence and various agencies under first, and so far the only country in NATO and the it) consists of 15,570 active personnel.29 In 2015, EU to reverse a post-Cold War trend towards manpower available in the whole country and fit abolishing conscription. The initiative was an- for military service was about 670,000 males nounced by the President of the Republic and (aged between 16 and 49 years) and 720,000 unanimously approved by the State Defence females (between 16 and 49). The annual cohort Council in February of that year, and on 11 May group was about 20,500 males and 19,500 fe- of that year, the Lithuanian Parliament (Seimas) males, who can also join as volunteers. The total voted overwhelmingly in favour of returning number of reserve personnel consisting of those conscription to address growing concerns about who had been conscripted before 2008 or who Russian assertiveness in the Baltic region.32 Ac- had retired from active military service was cording to the Lithuanian President Dalia about 80,000 persons.30 Grybauskaitė, “today’s geopolitical environment requires us to strengthen the army, and to do so In Lithuania, universal conscription is mandated as fast as it is possible.”33 by the Constitution, Article 139, which establish- es that “the defence of the State of Lithuania It was also considered that by reinstating con- against a foreign armed attack shall be the right scription, Lithuania was sending to its allies and and duty of each citizen of the Republic of Lithu- partners a strong political message of resolve ania. The citizens of the Republic of Lithuania and will to defend itself. Concerns about poor must perform military or alternative national manning of the standing units of the Lithuanian defence service according to the procedure es- Armed Forces, where some battalions were filled tablished by law.31 By law, military draft was just with 20%-30% of requisite personnel and mandatory to all physically and psychologically where highest-readiness units did not exceed the 80% level, played an important role in this

28 See Maanpuolustuskoulutusyhdistys decision, as did the diminished numbers of ready 29 I owe a great amount of gratitude to Mr. Tomas Jermalavicius, my colleague and friend at the ICDS, for helping me understand the Lithuanian National Defence System. All possible mistakes and misunderstandings are of course mine. 32 A total of 112 parliamentarians voted in favor of the conscrip- 30 See, “Lithuania”, The Military Balance 2014, The International tion’s return, three lawmakers voted against the initiative, while Institute for Strategic Studies, Routledge, London, February 2014. another five abstained. 31 Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania, Constitution of the Republic 33 ”President Grybauskaite: Conscription Might Remain a Necessi- of Lithuania, 1992. ty” Delfi by the Lithuanian Tribune, October 8, 2015.

reservists (by some estimates, not exceeding main manned mostly by full-time professionals, 5,000 personnel). while the lower-readiness motorized infantry brigade (“Žemaitija”), which is currently estab- During summer 2015 conscription notices were lished, will rely mostly on conscripted manpow- sent to 37,000 Lithuanian young men, out of er. whom about 3,000 - 3,500 per year were to be recruited, using the method of randomized se- The updated Conscription Law and the laws lection by computer (lottery).34 The conscription mandating the personnel categories and their period is nine months, and there are exemptions numbers in the National Defence System initially offered to certain categories, such as university envisaged conscription only as a temporary students and single fathers. A strong political measure which would last for five years.35 How- emphasis was placed on ensuring that most if ever, on 15 March 2016, the Lithuanian State not all the conscripts volunteer to do military Defence Council decided to make conscription service rather than are coerced to do so. A pack- permanent, while gradually increasing the annu- age of social, financial and legal benefits was al intake of conscripts to 4,000 persons.36 This passed in Seimas, which expanded the range of should permit the total personnel to grow to privileges and benefits offered to those who join 24,000 by 2021, with a total mobilization reserve the service voluntarily and/or complete it suc- of 102,000 (out of which 28,000 will have com- cessfully (e.g. those whose service record is pleted conscription within the past five years).37 marked as excellent receive a substantial financial bonus).

Whether as a result of these measures or due to According to the Norwegian Constitution, all the surge in patriotic sentiment to protect their physically and mentally fit citizens - male and homeland against resurgent Russia, the first female - are obliged to serve in the defence of intake of conscripts consisted solely of volun- their country: “All citizens of the State are in teers (more than 10% of whom were female general equally obliged, for a certain time, to citizens). By the estimates of the Ministry of protect their fatherland, regardless of birth or National Defence, about one third of those who fortune.”38 completed military draft in 2016 have applied for full-time military positions in the Lithuanian Liability for military service starts at the age of Armed Forces. 19 and continues until the age of 44. It is the operational requirements of the Norwegian An absolute majority of the conscripts undertake Armed Forces that determine the number of their service in the Land Forces, with only small conscripts called to do military service.39 In other numbers directed to the units of the Navy, Air words, the practical solution to conscription in Force and Logistics Command. For the time be- Norway is not universal, but partial, depending ing, all conscripts are distributed straight to the on the Defence Forces’ needs: “Expand general units where they undergo basic military training conscription to include all citizens, and to mod- as well as specialist training. However, there are ernize and develop the national service accord- plans to reconstitute the Training Regiment that ing to the Defence Forces’ needs. This will also existed until 2008 and centralize basic training. Force development plans envisage that highest- readiness units of the “Iron Wolf” mechanized 35 It is interesting to note that by May 2015, already 1,124 Lithua- infantry brigade which constitute the spearhead nian citizens have voluntarily signed up for military service since March of that year when the country decided to restore conscrip- of the national rapid reaction task force will re- tion. See, ibid. 36 BNS, Baltic Press Overview, 15 March 2016. 37 Tomas Jermalavicius, ICDS, 18 March 2016. 34 ”Conscription notices to be sent to 37,000 men in Lithuania”, 38 Norwegian Constitution, Article 119. Delphi by the Lithuanian Tribune, May 11, 2015. 39 “Norwegian Defence 2013” Norwegian Ministry of Defence.

imply a further professionalization of operational Currently, all military units included in the Nor- units.”40 wegian defence structures are standing units, though not all of them are at their full strength, In 2015, the total manpower available for con- and consist mainly of professionals and conscript military service in Norway was 1,079,043 scripts, with hardly any reservists. The whole males (ages of between 16 and 49) and defence structure has a total of about 75,000 1,051,278 females (also between 16 and 49).The men and women, with the peace-time opera- annual cohort group was 32,290 males and tional structure including 11,800 military profes- 30,777 females.41 The length of conscription in sionals and about 7,000-8,000 conscripts. If fully Norway is one year, followed by four to five re- mobilized, the structure would include a small fresher training periods (which add up to 18 reserve and about 45,000 Home Guard troops in months in total) through ages 35-60, depending addition to the peacetime structure.46 on the conscript’s position in the reserves. A small number of conscripts, on a trial project The conscription model in Norway is as follows: basis, were called up in summer 2013 for an First, the entire cohort group takes part in an eighteen-month service in the Army.42 The con- internet-based screening process. In 2014, the scripts were selected based on physical and psy- total number of eligible young people moving on chological tests, as well as their willingness to to the second phase (physical and mental exam- serve. Based on the Armed Forces’ needs, only ination) was about 63,000 (there were about 8,000 to 10,000 people are called up each year 12,000 deferrals). 14,500 men and 7,100 wom- from among the approximately 60,000 theoreti- en then went through the second part, out of cally available.43 which 10,600 men and 2,000 women were assigned to units. Out of them 7,000 men and Norway is the first European country to draft all 1,000 women reported for national service. At women in peacetime. Since the plan to call up the end, about 7,000 conscripts completed na- women for a voluntary examination for military tional service.47 service was introduced in 2007, the ratio of women who have completed national service In the current model, the conscripts are trained has almost doubled. An obligatory examination for their war-time tasks while performing their for women liable for military service was intro- national service. After their service is completed, duced in 2010. The aim was to increase the they will be placed in the so-called CHOD’s re- number of young women undergoing initial mili- serve pool for 1-3 years. The total service time tary service and basic officer training to 25 per will be 19 months, with the national service time cent of the total before 2015.44 and refresher training time added together. About 800 reservists are placed in police re- Norway is also able to offer the conscripts rela- serves, while the others find military or military- tively substantial monetary incentives. Compen- related tasks in the Home Guards.48 In today’s sation paid for conscripts is about 5,000 Norwe- Norwegian reserve system, there are very few gian kroner per month (about 540 euros), with a actual refresher training opportunities available completion bonus of 30,000 kroner (about 3270 for those who have completed their national euros).45 conscript military service.49

The Norwegian system is, however, in the pro- 40 Norwegian Government Declaration, 7 October, 2013. 41 See,”Norway”, The Military Balance 2014, The International cess of being modified. A Law on General Con- Institute for Strategic Studies, Routledge, London, February 2014. scription for men and women was adopted by 42 En fremtidig vernepliktsordning, Anbefaling fra Vernepliktutvalget 2015. 43 Interviews by this writer at the Ministry of Defence, Oslo, 18 46 “Norwegian conscription system”, 18 November 2015. November 2015. 47 Op. cit. 44 Interviews at the Ministry of Defence, Oslo, 18 November 20115. 48 Op.cit. 45 Interviews at the Ministry of Defence, Oslo, 18 November 2015. 49 Op. cit.

the Norwegian Parliament in 2014, and it be- this number would be around 5,000. One alter- came effective on 1 January 2015. The law ap- native cost-saving measure would be the sus- plies to women born on 1 January 1997 or later. pension of conscription and the expansion of the The first non-volunteer female conscripts re- volunteer Home Guard.52 ported for national service in the summer of To further investigate and make recommenda- 2016. tions on conscription, a special Commission on On 28 April 2015, the Expert Commission on Conscription was also established that produced Norwegian Security and Defence Policy present- its report in October 2015.53 The mandate for its ed a study, commissioned by the Defence Minis- work was to “assess the military professional, ter, which recommended that the Norwegian defence policy and civil society perspectives of defence concept be based on four mutually rein- conscription, and recommend a future conscrip- forcing pillars: tion system based on the requirements of the Defence Forces.” 1. National defence forces with a core of high readiness capabilities; As the Commission on Conscription saw it, “the primary purpose of conscription is to provide the 2. Allied military support and international personnel and competence required for the defence cooperation; Defence Forces to solve their missions.” Con- 3. Conscription, and; scription must also enjoy high legitimacy in the Norwegian society. The legitimacy of conscrip- 50 4. Effective total defence. tion primarily depends on:

On the basis of this study and its recommenda- 1. The popular perception that it is needed tions, the Norwegian Chief of Defence (CHOD) for the defence of the country; presented his Military Advice on 1 October 2015. It spelled out the following recommendations on 2. The perception that conscripts make a conscription: real and direct contribution to the De- fence Forces operational capability, and; 1. Continuation of conscription at the level of 8,600 conscripts a year; 3. The conscripts’ own perception that their service is meaningful and neces- 2. Priority should be given to conscription sary. from North Norway, and; Legitimacy is all the more relevant, when only 3. Trained reserves should be created and about 13 per-cent of the annual cohort actually 51 maintained by each military service. performs military service.54 In addtion, 14 per- cent of the cohort group is of foreign origin The CHOD estimated in his Advice that if carried (meaning that either the conscripts themselves out, over the next 10 years his recommendations or their parents were born in a foreign country). would cost 20 billion kroner (2.15 billion euros) above current expenditures. In the event that The Commission recommended that 12 months there is no budget increase, the CHOD recom- of national military service be considered the mended that there should be a reduced force norm. There should, however, be options of 6 or structure and a smaller number of conscripts per 18 months of service, with the latter being vol- year. He did not spell out how small that number untary and only offered in case there is a military should be, but there are some indications that

50 Unified Effort, Expert Commission on Norwegian Security and 52 Op. cit. Defence Policy, Norwegian Ministry of Defence, Oslo, April 2015. 53En fremtidig vernepliktsordning, Anbefaling fra 51 Et forsvar I endring.Forsvarssjefens fagmilitaere råd, Forsvaret, 1 Vernepliktutvalget, Forsvarsdepartementet, Oslo, 10/2015. October 2016. 54 Op, cit.

requirement. The 18-month service should be be re-adopted, compulsory military service will offered in those areas where there is a primary be gender-neutral. need for standing operational capability and In fact, even before 2010 the Swedish conscrip- readiness. In this option, the number of con- tion system had grown to be notably selective. scripts would be limited to the requirements of Not nearly everybody was called to do military the Defence Forces.55 An experiment has been service. At the height of the Cold War, almost 85 launched by the Norwegian Defence Forces, in per cent of Swedish men performed military which the 18-month conscript period is being service, with some 50,000 men conscripted out tested, with conscripts being placed with the of a cohort group amounting to about 60,000 Border Guards, Military Police and Navy person- men. With the Cold War behind, these numbers nel. fell dramatically in the early 2000’s, with only an To conclude, there is a continuing military de- average of about 5,000 conscripted soldiers serv- mand in Norway for conscription, especially now ing each year, including several hundred women when there is a growing interest by Russia in the since 1980.57 northern Nordic region and the Arctic. As the By 2010, it was widely felt across political party Commission on Conscription puts it, “there is at lines in Sweden that, with the new demands on present no realistic alternative for conscription, national security, especially with the new mili- unless there are large reductions in defence tary requirements of expeditionary warfare structures, tasks and levels of ambition. The emerging and with old military threats appearing current defence structure and today’s levels of to diminish in Europe, obligatory military service threat to the Norwegian society require limited had become both old-fashioned and ineffec- numbers of conscripts with high level of compe- tive.58 tence and training.”56 As a result, it was argued that the transition away from the old universal conscription system would produce a more functional, available, and For more than a hundred years, Sweden main- flexible defence force that would be readily de- tained universal compulsory conscription to raise ployable for far-away operations like Afghani- the manpower needed for its military defence. stan. Consequently, it was concluded that there Then, on 1 July 2010, with a slim three-vote ma- was no need to maintain a system of large num- jority in Parliament, conscription was officially bers of reservists ready to provide for territorial suspended. Before then, all able-bodied Swedish defence. Instead, what was needed was a rela- men aged between 18 and 47 years old were tively small defence force operating long dis- conscripted to serve with the armed forces over tances away from Swedish borders. As a conse- a period ranging from 80 to 450 days, depending quence, all Swedish units would be manned by on the tasks they would have as reservists in the personnel who had voluntarily sought employ- war-time defence structures. ment in the Swedish Armed Forces.59 Conscription was not, however, totally forsaken. Voluntary participation in the Armed Forces was As a matter of fact, the concept of universal con- possible either for those who had served as conscription as a means of recruiting young Swedes to be trained for the military defence of their 57 See, for example, “Military service comes to an end in Sweden”, country was to remain, and it could be re- The Local, July 01, 2010. applied, if required, for reasons of military pre- 58 The opportunities were still there for those who wanted to volunteer for the Defence Forces. See, for example, “A Career in paredness. However, in case conscription is to the Swedish Armed Forces” Swedish Armed Forces. 59 See the full argumentation in International Defence Cooperation: Efficiency, Solidarity, Sovereignty, Report from the Inquiry on 55 Op. Cit. Sweden’s International Defence Cooperation, Ministry of Defence, 56 Op. cit. Government Offices of Sweden, Stockholm, October 2014.

scripts prior to 2010 or for those who completed conscription had to be brought back in one form an approximately three-month long basic mili- or another. This was strongly supported by Swe- tary training programme. After completion of dish popular opinion. In a poll taken in early basic training came a trial posting with a mis- 2016, seven out of ten Swedes wanted to bring sion-based unit or service with the Home back general conscription, and 87 per cent of Guards. For those who were considered poten- them wanted to have gender-neutral conscrip- tial officers or warrant officers, a preparatory tion.63 officers’ course was conducted over a period of The question of what exact form renewed con- up to three months. For those who chose to scription could and should take is still under serve with the Home Guards, there were also intense debate. One proposal under considera- preparatory Home Guards courses over a period tion is that out of total cohort group of about of up to three months.60 100,000 eligible men and women, roughly With the new way of recruiting for the defence 20,000 persons would be selected on the basis forces, the end result was that in 2015, out of a of information voluntarily provided in response total of about 18,000 persons employed by the to an internet inquiry. Out of that number, be- Swedish Armed Forces almost 7,000 were civil- tween 6, 000 – 7, 000 of the most suitable per- ians and the balance being officers and other sons would be conscripted. These conscripts ranks in the military services. However, recruit- would then be formed into and trained as units, ing for professional soldiers was far from suc- not as individuals. After a conscription period of cessful. It has been pointed out that of the re- 12 months, they would be placed in reserves. quired number of soldiers about 7,500 soldiers Refresher training for these units would be pro- were missing, corresponding to about a half of vided every four years to ordinary soldiers, and the strength of the Swedish defence organiza- every two years to officers and NCO’s. Training tion.61 would be aimed at producing high-readiness forces for war-time service. In this model, sign- In 2014-2015, the pendulum of Swedish defence ing up for training would still be voluntary but and national security thinking started to swing while participating in them, training for war-time back again, and it was argued in many quarters tasks would be compulsory. 64 that universal conscription should be restored. It was also clear that the prevailing recruiting sys- While the above changes are still being debated, tem did not function satisfactorily. Sweden has already begun to carry out exercises in order to retrain reservists for their war-time At the same time, Russia’s illegal annexation of tasks. For example, it was recently announced Crimea, and Russian support for the separatists that the land forces were arranging a military in eastern Ukraine were, in the Swedish view exercise for some of their reservists in the region strong signals denoting that the security situa- of Norrbotten. According to Peter Hultqvist, tion in Europe was changing. These points were Swedish Minister of Defence, about 100 reserv- strongly argued in the Swedish Government’s ists were taking part in that exercise, which 2015 defence policy assessments and reviews on makes it the largest repetition exercise for 18 the tasks of the Swedish defence forces.62 More years in Sweden. In addition, he stated that “we and more support was given to the notion that are just now reviewing how we could find a combination of professional military service and 60 Interviews with Swedish defence officials, November 2015. 61 Mikael Holmström och Jens Kärrman, ”Strkt stöd att införa värnplikt för båda könen”, Dagens Nyheter, 4.1.2016. 62 For example, see Inriktning för Försvarsmaktens verksamhet för åren 2016 till och med 2020, Regeringsbelut, Försvarsdepartementet, 25 June 2015; and En långsiktigt hållbar personalförsörgning av det militära försvaret, Kommittédirektiv, 63 Holmström och Kärrman, loc.cit. Beslut vid regeringssammanträde, 1 October 2015. 64 Interviews with Swedish defence officials, November 2015.

conscription, as they have already done in Nor- quent, regular and robust refresher training ex- way and Denmark.”65 ercises.

In a recent study that was carried out by the Voluntary defence and security organizations in Swedish Defence Forces it was recommended all of these countries have a long and honoured that gender-neutral conscription would be rein- tradition. Not only do they give the citizens a troduced in Sweden in 2019. It would not be a strong feeling of defence of their homeland, but fully general conscription as it was in the Cold they also form a basis for military defence of War years but a selective one. Perhaps as many their countries, in addition to the regular military as 10,000 young men and women would be con- forces they have. scripted out of the annual cohort group of What can these small countries learn from each 100,000 individuals. Whatever the outcome of other? These are some of the “best practices” these particular debates, it is clear that discus- that can be gleaned from the ways in which con- sion on conscription will continue to be debated scription is carried out in the countries reviewed in Sweden over the next few years. 66 here. With these lessons learnt, the “best practices”, are particularly valuable right now, when by far the strongest country in the region, Rus- sia, has chosen a policy of aggression, military assertiveness and unpredictability to further its The new security environment that these gener- interests in the region67: ally small and, in military terms, relatively weak 1. Conscription is the most cost-efficient countries face in the Baltic Sea and Arctic regions way of producing large reserves and cre- underlines the need for high readiness, modern ating needed resilience to a country’s equipment, and societal resilience. It is also fair defence. This applies with special force to talk about their “total defence”: these coun- to a country with a small population as tries need to harness all their capabilities to de- compared to its territorial size. To build fend themselves, either as non-allied or as up defence that covers the whole coun- members of the NATO alliance. Popular support try, a defence system based on conscrip- in these countries for national defence efforts is tion and regularly trained reserves is a unusually high: in opinion polls conducted over must. many decades, more than 80% of the population says that they would defend their homeland 2. It is important that as high a percentage with military means even if the success of the of the annual cohort group as possible defence would be uncertain. will be recruited and trained. Conscrip- tion should also be extended to the fe- Judging from the defence systems these coun- male population on a voluntary basis if tries have adopted, the creation and mainte- not as an obligation. In addition to pure- nance of credible national defence call for a sys- ly military tasks, there are a great num- tem of conscription and reservist training. Regu- ber of tasks that support the country’s lar forces are necessary, but they must be sup- societal resilience and where special ed- plemented by a structure of conscription and ucation and training are needed. consequent reservist formations. It is also necessary that the military capabilities thus acquired will be further developed and fine-tuned in fre- 67 On purpose, this writer has drawn the conclusions, “best practices”, on a general level and not specific to any country studied 65 Mr. Peter Hultqvist, Swedish Minister of Defence, “Vill återinföra here in detail. A “perfect” defence system would contain a combi- allmän värnplikt” in Norrbotten,23 November, 2015. nation of these practices, adjusted to the country’s historical 66 ”Utredning: Värnplikt återinförs i Sverige 2019”, Svenska experiences, resources, and military culture, as well as its status of Dagbladet, 1 September 2016. being allied or non-allied.

3. Drafting as high a percentage of the scription should be completed no later male cohort group as possible (and the than the year the conscript turns 30. In voluntary women) will mean that all reserves, the most fit and militarily ca- possible talents embedded in the popu- pable units should have personnel who lation can be utilized. This should apply are between 20 to 25 years old. The in particular to young people with tech- leadership in these units could be up to nical skills such as IT and cyber defence 30 years old. After 5 years in the re- skills in addition to more traditional mili- serves, these units could be rotated to tary skills. less demanding but still militarily important tasks. Leaders of these units

4. As few exemptions from conscript ser- could well be placed and rotated up to vice as possible should be allowed. For when they are 35-40 years old. In some example, no special allowance should be higher ranks, the reservists could be as given to university students. In general, high as 50-60 years old. Reservists these students will be most qualified to should be promoted only through regu- receive training to become reserve non- lar training and exercises. commissioned officers (squad leaders) or reserve officers (platoon leaders). If the 8. In the last 2-3 months of their service, university students are exempted, that conscripts should be trained and exer- will drastically shrink the talent pool for cised as whole units in their war-time these positions. configurations. In particular, it is vital to 5. The shortest required conscription ser- have them exercise in demanding, realis- vice-time for the simplest basic soldiers’ tic and robust conditions. tasks should be no shorter than six months, nine months for more demand- 9. After the troops have fulfilled their con- ing technical tasks, and a year for the re- scription requirement, units should be serve non-commissioned officers and re- kept together and exercised together serve officers. There should be special each year for the first five years. These compensation for those who serve the troops could also be used in foreign op- longest (monetary benefits, easier ac- erations (of a crisis management type) cess to university studies, better and less as a unit. This would greatly improve expensive health services etc.). Also, it is their unit cohesion and thus increase exceedingly important that the con- their battle worthiness. Some of the scripts have meaningful tasks to do troops should also be formed, trained, while they are carrying out their duties. and exercised into high-level rapid deployment formations, deployable within 6. Access to reserve non-commissioned of- 24 to 48 hours. Refresher training exer- ficer and reserve officer training should cises, lasting from 2 to 3 weeks, should be made as competitive as possible. At- be arranged regularly, at least annually, tention should be paid to academic for those troops with rapid deployment achievements at the secondary school tasks. level, physical fitness, and in particular to the conscripts’ performance in the

early “boot camp” training period. 10. In order to improve their rapid deployment quality, the troops should be 7. The best time to enter the conscription trained in “snap exercises”. Part of the system would be the year when the con- reserves should also be formed into script becomes 18-19 years old. Con- units that could be quickly called up by

the Chief of Defence, if the situation so leaders (in particular platoon and com- requires. pany commanders) could periodically call up their troops for voluntary exer-

11. Some of the troops should also be given cises. They should of course be compen- territorial and local defence tasks, espe- sated for the costs accrued. cially when the reservists are over 25 but not over 35 years of age. These troops 15. It would be helpful if the reservists were would provide the vital task of “deter- given call-up schedules, say, for the next rence by denial”; in other words, they five years. They could use that infor- would be trained, equipped and exer- mation to make themselves more avail- cised for delaying tasks to gain time, to able. They should also be advised of bleed the enemy, and in general to slow their war-time placements in order for down an attack. Such units should have them to sharpen their military skills vol- high competence in particular at anti- untarily. tank, anti-air, signals, and engineering skills. 16. With today’s high educational background, conscripts could and should be 12. When reserve troops are called back to trained to handle the most sophisticated refresher training exercises, it should modern weapons systems. Those con- happen in their war-time formations. Re- scripts who have been taught to use fusal to participate in these exercises such systems during their conscription should be possible only under the strict- period, should be called back for re- est of condition, such as: if the reservist fresher training at least once a year, if is living abroad; if his health condition not more often. has badly deteriorated (a medical state- ment by a certified medical doctor 17. IT and cyber experts should be formed should always be required); or if the re- into special cyber defence units and they servist’s skills could be better used in should be recalled back to refresher some other task. Particular attention training exercises at least once a year, if should be given to those reservists who not more often. have high IT and cyber skills. 18. Societal resilience to military and non- 13. A follow-up system to monitor reserv- military challenges (including all kinds of ists’ life after the conscription period hybrid war situations) could be im- should be developed, and reservists proved by training reservists in the so- should be required to inform military au- called “whole of government” or “whole thorities of any changes to their address, of society” tasks. Such training should be contact details, or place of employment, offered in particular to those reservists and to notify them of any special skills who are more than 30 years old and acquired after the conscription period. who in general are no longer included in the front-line military formations. Such 14. Reservists should be encouraged to join individuals could be also used as “ena- voluntary defence organizations in order blers” in various support and logistics to keep up and sharpen their military tasks, and tasks associated with ensuring and other defence-related skills. Volun- the continuity of critical government tary organizations should be organized services. All conscription-age men and accordingly in order to provide profes- women should be introduced to such sional training opportunities to their “whole of society” tasks. members. It would be useful if reserve