The Art of Fortune-Taking
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Ron Roberts, David Groome – Parapsychology
Parapsychology This page intentionally left blank Parapsychology The science of unusual experience RON ROBERTS Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Research Centre, Institute of Psychiatry, London and DAVID GROOME Department of Psychology, University of Westminster, London A member of the Hodder Headline Group LONDON Distributed in the United States of America by Oxford University Press Inc., New York First published in Great Britain in 2001 by Arnold, a member of the Hodder Headline Group, 338 Euston Road, London NW1 3BH http://www.arnoldpublishers.com Distributed in the United States of America by Oxford University Press Inc., 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 © 2001 Arnold All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronically or mechanically, including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without either prior permission in writing from the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying. In the United Kingdom such licences are issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency: 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WIT 4LP. The advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of going to press, but neither the author[s] nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress ISBN 0340 76169 5 (hb) ISBN 0340 76168 7 (pb) 2345678910 Typeset in 1 Ipt Times by Saxon Graphics Ltd, Derby Printed and bound in Malta. -
The Art of Thinking Clearly
For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & Stoughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & Stoughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH www.sceptrebooks.co.uk CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO -
Modern Fantasy
Modern Fantasy Teaching Resources Center, Joyner Library A Selective Annotated Bibliography Titles in the Teaching Resources Center are cataloged with Dewey call numbers and are preceded by Curric. Please ask someone at the Teaching Resources Service Desk if you need any assistance. Grade Title Information Call Level Number BIG BOOKS PreK-2 Roberts, Bethany. A Mouse Told His Mother. Glenview, IL: Scott Foresman, BB 2000. R5413M A little mouse's imagination makes his bedtime an exciting adventure, as he takes a fantasy trip to catch crocodiles, ride bucking broncos, and sail where the wind blows. EASY PreK-2 Becker, Aaron. Journey. Somerville, MA: Candlewick Press, 2013. E B38838J Using a red marker, a young girl draws a door on her bedroom wall and through it enters another world where she experiences many adventures, including being captured by an evil emperor. K-2 Berry, Julie, and April Lee. Don't Let the Beasties Escape This Book!. Los E Angeles: J. Paul Getty Museum, 2019. B45958D A boy discovers a medieval Book of Beasts and uses it to invent a tale of heroic deeds. Each time he says the name of an animal, it magically emerges from the book, causing a day full of hilarity and mayhem at the castle. PreK-2 Burningham, John. It’s a Secret! Somerville, MA: Candlewick Press, 2009. E B935I 1 Every night Marie-Elaine's cat, Malcolm, goes out, and every morning he comes back in and sleeps. "Where do cats go at night?" the girl wonders. So when she sees him at his cat door dressed to the nines, she begs to come along. -
THE INFLATED SELF the INFLATED SELF Human Illusions and the Biblical Call to Hope
THE INFLATED SELF THE INFLATED SELF Human Illusions and the Biblical Call to Hope DAVID G. MYERS The Seabury Press * New York 1981 The Seabury Press 815 Second Avenue New York, N.Y. 10017 Copyright © 1980 by David G. Myers All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, storedin a retrieval system, or transmitted, in anyform or by anymeans, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the written permission of The Seabury Press. Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Catalogingin Publication Data Myers, David G The inflated self. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Good and evil. 2. Beliefand doubt. 3. Hope. I. Title. BJ1401.M86 24r.3 80-16427 ISBN: 0-8I64-2326-I Grateful acknowledgment is made to the following publishers for per mission to use the materials listed: American Psychological Association for a chart excerpted from "Meta- Analysis of Psychotherapy Outcome Studies," by Mary Lee Smith and Gene V. Glass which appeared in volume 32 of the American Psychologist. Faber and Faber Ltd for excerpts from "The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock" and "The Hollow Men" in Collected Poems 1909-1962 byT. S. Eliot. Harcourt BraceJovanovich, Inc. for excerptsfrom "The LoveSongof J. AlfredPrufrock" in Collected Poems 1909-1962 byT. S. Eliot, and for excerpts from the "The Hollow Men" in Collected Poems 1909- 1962 by T. S. Eliot, copyright 1936by Harcourt BraceJovanovich, Inc.; copyright 1963, 1964 by T. S. Eliot. Three Rivers PoetryJournal for the poem "The Healers" by Jack Ridl. To my parents Kenneth Gordon Myers Luella Nelson Myers Lord, I have given up my pride and turned away from my arrogance. -
Oh No, Ross and Carrie! Theme Song” by Brian Keith Dalton
00:00:00 Music Music “Oh No, Ross and Carrie! Theme Song” by Brian Keith Dalton. A jaunty, upbeat instrumental. 00:00:08 Ross Host Hello, and welcome to Oh No, Ross and Carrie!, the show where we Blocher don’t just report on fringe science, spirituality, and claims of the paranormal, no, we take part ourselves. 00:00:17 Carrie Host Yup, when they make the claims, we show up so you don’t have to. Poppy I’m Carrie Poppy. 00:00:20 Ross Host And I’m Ross Blocher, and we are joined with two exciting guests today. We have Susan Gerbic— 00:00:25 Susan Guest Yay! Gerbic 00:00:26 Ross Host —and Mark Edward. 00:00:27 Mark Guest Hey. Edward 00:00:28 Ross Host Welcome, and welcome back, Mark. 00:00:29 Mark Guest Thank you. It’s been awhile. 00:00:30 Ross Host I had to look this up. Our thirteenth episode was an interview with you. 00:00:34 Susan Guest Carrie said this house was weird— 00:00:35 Mark Guest Blissfully creepy, which I really liked. [Carrie laughs.] 00:00:38 Susan Guest He’s bringing it to my house in Salinas now. My house is becoming blissfully creepy, it’s great. 00:00:43 Ross Host Wonderful. 00:00:44 Carrie Host So you’re moving in. You’re shacking up. 00:00:46 Mark Guest Yeah, we’re shacking up. 00:00:47 Susan Guest It’s only been ten years. 00:00:48 Mark Guest After ten years, you know. -
Barnum Effect' in Personality Assessment: a Review of the Literature1.'
Psychologicul Reports, 1985, 57, 367-382. @ Psychological Reports 1985 THE 'BARNUM EFFECT' IN PERSONALITY ASSESSMENT: A REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE1.' D. H. DICKSON AND I. W. KELLY University of Saskatchewan Sz~mmusy.-This review summarizes to date the research on the Barnum effect, the tendency for people to accept vague, ambiguous, and general state- ments as descriptive of their unique personalities. Studies examined address interpretation variables of the Barnum profiles in regard to generality and supposed relevance of the interpretation, favorability of interpretation, type of assessment procedure, and origin and format of interpretation. Also the role of personal factors such as characteristics of the subject and test administrator are examined. It is concluded that the level of acceptance of Barnum profiles depends on the relevance and favorability of the profile and to some extent on the type of assessment utilized. Directions for research on the Barnum effect are provided. The psychological phenomenon whereby people accept general personality interpretations (Barnum profiles) as accurate descriptions of their own unique personalities has been given the name "the Barnum effect" after P. T. Barnum, a famous circus owner whose formula for success was always to have a little something for everybody (Snyder & Shenkel, 1976). Barnum profiles consist of a variety of statements: "Vague, e.g., 'you enjoy a certain amount of change and variety in life'; Double-headed, e.g., 'you are generally cheerful and opti- mistic but get depressed at times'; Modal characteristics of the subject's group, e.g., 'you find that study is not always easy'; favorable, e.g., 'you are forceful and well-liked by others'" (Sundberg, 1955). -
S T a T E S M
Rec Sports: Trip into the Shakespeare experience! Outdoor Program ventures to the Grand Canyon! THE UMD Decembers, 1988 Editorial 4A Opinion 5A Duluth, Minnesota Arts & Entertainment 6A Volume 59 On Campus 11A Sports IB Number 11 Rec Sports 5B Statesman Classifieds 6B Book prices questioned Timothy Louis Franklin tiy," Romano said. Staff Writer "Freight Is also another major expense which stud- Over the past several years, ents don't consider. That ex- editorials In the UMD pense raises the prices of the STATESMAN have focused on iDooks around seven percent. the htgh prices at certain en- Another 14 percent are sales tities at UMD. One of those pay for our payroll. We have entitles Is the UMD Main 24 student employees making Street Store. The students $6 an hour and we also have that write these editorials Civil Sei-vlce employees. The think the bookstore Is out to Civil Service employees get a make a fast buck off the stud- benefit package which Is ents. Jeff Romano, manager of roughly 25 percent of their the UMD Main Street Store, salary. We Iry to keep our ex- says that Is just not true. penses down, but some of "Costs keep on going up them we have no control year after year. Inflation Is over." he added. around 3-4 percent a year Prices have gone up on while textbook prices, on the most textbooks at UMD this whole, went up 10 percent year. The bookstore says that What students don't consider they have not done this on A maze-ing Photo • Tom Torkelson is that you have to pay for the purpose but must do It to author, printing, marketing, keep up with expenses. -
SMU in the News Highlights from June 6-12, 2017 News Austin American
SMU in the News Highlights from June 6-12, 2017 News Austin American-Statesman Cal Jillson, Dedman, Gov. Abbot calls for special session http://www.mystatesman.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/out-from- capitol-shadows-gov-abbott-looms-large-with-special- session/6GtsEPfRVbYZWk86rv95DN/ CBS DFW Cal Jillson, Dedman, Gov. Abbott schedules news conference amid talk of special session http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2017/06/05/governor-news-conference-special-session/ CBS Minnesota Josh Rovner, Dedman, U.S. international relations http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/audio/jordana-green-on-wcco/ D Magazine Bernard Weinstein, Cox, predicting bullet train ridership is a numbers game https://www.dmagazine.com/publications/d-ceo/2017/june/predicting-bullet-train- ridership-is-a-numbers-game/ Dallas Innovates Pia Vogel and John Wise, Dedman, Corey Clark, Guildhall, SMU researchers, gamers partner on cancer research https://www.dallasinnovates.com/smu-researchers-gamers-partner-cancer- research/ Arthur Peña, Meadows, Dallas culture-maker's surprising new collaboration with the retailer Coach https://www.dallasnews.com/arts/visual-arts/2017/06/09/art-commerce-dallas- culture-maker-arthur-peas-surprising-new-coach-collaboration Diverse Issues in Higher Education Candice Bledsoe, Simmons, commentary, excellence does not shield black students from racism http://diverseeducation.com/article/97469/ FOX DFW Cal Jillson, Dedman, on Comey testimony http://www.fox4news.com/good-day/260009834-story Meadows hosted festival last weekend to honor famous cellist Lev -
A Framework for Studying Biases in Visualization Research
A Framework for Studying Biases in Visualization Research André Calero Valdez, Martina Ziefle, Michael Sedlmair Real Cognitive Scientists! André Calero Valdez Martina Ziefle Thanks André! Michael Sedlmair A Framework for Studying Biases in Visualization Research. IEEE VIS Decisive Workshop: Phoenix, AZ, USA. Oct 2nd, 2017. 3 Background story • InfoVis 2017 paper: - Priming and Anchoring Effects in Visualization [Wed, 8:30, Perception session] • Geoff told us about DECISIVe • We have to write a paper!! Geoff @EuroVA, Barcelona, 2017 Michael Sedlmair A Framework for Studying Biases in Visualization Research. IEEE VIS Decisive Workshop: Phoenix, AZ, USA. Oct 2nd, 2017. 4 Next step: brainstorming … • There are so many biases out there! • Map by Buster Benson. Michael Sedlmair A Framework for Studying Biases in Visualization Research. IEEE VIS Decisive Workshop: Phoenix, AZ, USA. Oct 2nd, 2017. 5 Next step brainstorming … IV. What Should We I. Too Much Information II. Not Enough Meaning III. Need to act fast remember? a. We notice things 1. Availability Heuristic a. We find stories and 1. Confabulation a. To act, we must be 1. Peltzman effect a. We edit and 1. Spacing effect 2. Attentional Bias 2. Clustering illusion 2. Risk compensation 2. Suggestibility • already primed in 3. Illusory truth effect patterns even in confident we can 3. Effort justification reinforce some 3. False memory 3. Insensitivity to sample size There are so many 4. Mere exposure effect 4. Trait ascription bias 4. Cryptomnesia memory or repeated sparse data 4. Neglect of probability make an impact and memories after the often 5. Centext effect 5. Anecdotal fallacy feel what we do is 5. -
Republicans Sweep Council Races to Retain Majority on Town Council
The Westfield Serving the Town Since 1890 Leader USPS 680020 Published OUR 109th YEAR ISSUE NO. 44-99 Periodical Postage Paid at Westfield, N.J. Thursday, November 4, 1999 Every Thursday 232-4407 FIFTY CENTS Republicans Sweep Council Races To Retain Majority on Town Council By PAUL J. PEYTON This year was the second time in while running as a slate in both 1997 dollars. Council seats pay $1 a year. Specially Written for The Westfield Leader three years Democrats had the op- and 1999. His comment was a direct referral Calling it a sweet victory, Republi- portunity, but failed to gain the coun- Second Ward Councilman Mat- to his attempt at being a contestant can incumbents retained four Town cil majority. thew P. Albano, who won a third on a television pilot game trivia show, Council seats in Tuesdays election Celebrating their victory at B.G. term while facing opposition for the called Who Wants to be A Million- and maintained a 5-4 majority on the Fields Restaurant on Springfield first time, noted that the Republicans aire? which aired this past summer. governing body for at least another Avenue, the Republican candidates cannot take a campaign for granted. The candidate needed, but failed to year. cited their teamwork as a major fac- The Dems, we realize, will do gain, a waiver from his opponent, Ms. The victory is a far cry from last tor in their win. anything to win an election, he told Claire Lazarowitz, to appear on the year when Democrats took three of Through the course of the whole supporters. -
2013-14 Men's Hockey Media Information
2013-14 MEN’S HOCKEY MEDIA INFORMATION 2013-14 MEN’S HOCKEY MEDIA INFORMATION MEN’S HOCKEY CONTACT LEANN PARKER Office Phone: 614-688-0294 Cell Phone: 614-266-4309 E-mail: [email protected] OHIO STATE ATHLETICS COMMUNICATIONS CREDENTIAL REQUESTS WEEKLY INTERVIEWS Associate Athletics Director/Communications...... Dan Wallenberg In order to qualify for a credential, an applicant must represent Head coach Steve Rohlik and his staff can best be reached during Director.........................................................................Leann Parker the recognized news organization requesting credentials. Please the morning hours, when in town, in the men’s hockey office at Associate Directors ............................... Jerry Emig, Adam Widman contact Leann Parker, athletics communications director, for 614-292-0820. Media wishing to conduct interviews with student- Assistant Directors...............................Alex Morando, Brett Rybak, information on how to apply for single game or season credentials. athletes should contact Leann Parker. Please call at least one day in Danielle Warner, Kendra Willard advance to allow setup time. One day a week (typically Wednesday) Communications Assistants......................Julie Brown, Ben Vondal CREDENTIAL PICKUP before or after practice usually is reserved for the media. Website ......................................... OhioStateBuckeyes.com Credentials may be picked up at the media entrance on the north Main Office Phone .......................................... 614-292-6861 side of -
Prophecy, Cosmology and the New Age Movement: the Extent and Nature of Contemporary Belief in Astrology
PROPHECY, COSMOLOGY AND THE NEW AGE MOVEMENT: THE EXTENT AND NATURE OF CONTEMPORARY BELIEF IN ASTROLOGY NICHOLAS CAMPION A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the University of the West of England, Bristol for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at Bath Spa University College Study of Religions Department, Bath Spa University College June 2004 Acknowledgments I would like to acknowledge helpful comments and assistance from Sue Blackmore, Geoffrey Dean, Ronnie Dreyer, Beatrice Duckworth, Kim Farnell, Chris French, Patrice Guinard, Kate Holden, Ken Irving, Suzy Parr and Michelle Pender. I would also like to gratefully thank the Astrological Association of Great Britain (AA), The North West Astrology Conference (NORWAC), the United Astrology Congress (UAC), the International Society for Astrological Research (ISAR) and the National Council for Geocosmic Research (NCGR) for their sponsorship of my research at their conferences. I would also like to thank the organisers and participants of the Norwegian and Yugoslavian astrological conferences in Oslo and Belgrade in 2002. Ill Abstract Most research indicates that almost 100% of British adults know their birth-sign. Astrology is an accepted part of popular culture and is an essential feature of tabloid newspapers and women's magazines, yet is regarded as a rival or, at worst, a threat, by the mainstream churches. Sceptical secular humanists likewise view it as a potential danger to social order. Sociologists of religion routinely classify it as a cult, religion, new religious movement or New Age belief. Yet, once such assumptions have been aired, the subject is rarely investigated further. If, though, astrology is characterised as New Age, an investigation of its nature may shed light on wider questions, such as whether many Christians are right to see New Age as a competitor in the religious market place.