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Norfolk's Story

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Norfolk’s Story – March 2021 Norfolk’s Story March 2021 Page 1 of 62 Produced by NCC Insight & Analytics Team Norfolk’s Story – March 2021 Contents 1 Key findings 3 2 Introduction 9 2.1 Purpose of ‘Norfolk’s Story’ 9 2.2 Statement on data 9 2.3 Norfolk the place – an overview 10 3 Norfolk’s population 12 3.1 Current population profile 12 3.2 Future population profile 15 4 Norfolk – both urban and rural 20 4.1 Classification 20 4.2 Population by district 21 4.3 Population by age 23 5 Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk 25 5.1 Income 25 5.2 Deprivation indices 26 5.3 Child poverty 29 5.4 Fuel poverty 32 6 Health and wellbeing in Norfolk 33 6.1 Children’s and young people’s health 33 6.2 Adults’ health and lifestyle 34 6.3 Disease and poor health 35 6.4 Life expectancy and causes of death 37 7 Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk 39 7.1 National context 39 7.2 Local picture of crime and disorder 40 8 Norfolk’s economy 43 8.1 Structure of the local economy 43 8.2 Economic competitiveness 49 8.3 Labour market 53 9 Education and skills in Norfolk 56 9.1 Educational attainment 56 9.2 Skills 59 10 Concluding remarks 61 Page 2 of 62 Produced by NCC Insight & Analytics Team Norfolk’s Story – March 2021 1 Key findings This report highlights key and cross-cutting issues for Norfolk such as changes in Norfolk’s population, deprivation, economic, health and rural issues, which could then be used to inform the planning of local service strategies and provision. It is a high-level report that is supported by detailed needs assessments and plans. As a result, Norfolk’s Story is not a strategy, but is the evidence base to support the development of strategy and policy to inform decision making and resource allocation. This report contains the most up to date data and information available at the time of publication. Much of the data used in this report is published annually or quarterly. Stringent methodological practices are in place to ensure published data is accurate and reliable, and this means that there is often a lag in publication of data. Consequently, the data and analysis contained in this report will often not reflect the changed landscape resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic since March 2020. However, this report provides data and analysis that could contribute toward a baseline to measure the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Norfolk’s population • Norfolk’s population is around 907,800, with more people living in King’s Lynn & West Norfolk and fewer people living in Great Yarmouth and North Norfolk. • Over the five years since 2014, Norfolk’s population has increased by 3.5%. • Norfolk’s ethnic make-up is characterised by a predominantly White English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish, British or Irish population (92.9%). • The proportion of people with an ethnic group other than White is 3.5%, and this varies from 1.4% in North Norfolk to 9.2% in Norwich. • There are around 160 languages spoken in Norfolk. English is not the first language of around 12,400 school children in the county. • Norfolk’s population could rise by an estimated 60,600 over the decade to 2028 - this is an increase of 6.7%. • South Norfolk, Breckland and Broadland are projected to be the fastest growing districts in the county. • In the main, Norfolk has an ageing population. It is expected that around 27% of the population will be aged 65 and over by 2028. • The 85+ population of Norfolk is projected to grow significantly with a 24% increase by 2028. • Norfolk’s population is projected to exceed one million by 2036. Page 3 of 62 Produced by NCC Insight & Analytics Team Norfolk’s Story – March 2021 Norfolk – both urban and rural • While Norfolk’s land area is around 93% rural, just over half our residents live in an environment that can be classed as urban. • Over the past few years, there has been a shift in where people live in Norfolk, with an increase in numbers of people living in urban settings and a corresponding reduction of people living in rural settings. • All districts except North Norfolk have at least a third of their population living in urban areas and none of Norfolk’s districts is wholly rural. • There has been a shift in the county’s urban/rural split at district level over recent years, with people living in an urban setting markedly increasing in Breckland, King’s Lynn & West Norfolk and South Norfolk. • Great Yarmouth also has a marked change in its urban/rural split, but conversely with an increase in people living in a rural setting. • People in Norfolk aged 45 to 64 and older people aged 65+ are more likely to live in rural as opposed to urban areas. The opposite is true of children aged 0 to 15, younger adults aged 16 to 29 and adults aged 30 to 44. • Almost 60% of Norfolk people aged 65+ live in rural areas. Deprivation and poverty in Norfolk • The average annual gross pay in Norfolk is around £22,860. Over the last year Norfolk’s pay gap has widened compared with national pay levels. • Great Yarmouth has had the highest average pay increase (proportionately) in the county, compared with the previous year, with South Norfolk having a decrease. • The Indices of Deprivation 2019 show that Norfolk has experienced an increase in relative deprivation compared with 2015 and 2010. • Of Norfolk’s 538 LSOAs, 97 have moved to a relatively more deprived decile compared with 2015. • Around 135,000 Norfolk residents live in areas which have been classified as being among the 20% most deprived in England. • The most deprived areas in Norfolk are largely centred around the urban areas such as Norwich, Great Yarmouth, and King’s Lynn, as well as some market towns such as Thetford, Dereham, and Watton. • There are around 21,820 children living in families with Absolute low-income, and around 28,150 children living in families with Relative low-income in Norfolk. • Great Yarmouth, Norwich and North Norfolk each have higher rates of children living in low-income families, for both Absolute and Relative low-income, than the Norfolk average. • There are around 45,600 Norfolk households in fuel poverty. Page 4 of 62 Produced by NCC Insight & Analytics Team Norfolk’s Story – March 2021 • Except for Norwich and Great Yarmouth, the level of households in fuel poverty has increased (worsened) over the year for each of Norfolk’s districts. • North Norfolk has the highest proportion of households in fuel poverty in the county. Health and wellbeing in Norfolk • Conceptions by girls aged under 18 years has seen a reducing trend over the past ten years for Norfolk. • Norfolk has a significantly worse rate of women smoking during pregnancy (at the time of delivery) than the England average. • Over recent years, Norfolk’s level of childhood obesity has an increasing trend, with the latest data showing one in five children are obese. • Over recent years, prevalence of smoking in adults aged 18 and over for Norfolk peaked in 2011 and since then has gradually decreased until 2017 when the rate started to increase. • Two in three Norfolk adults are classed as overweight or obese. • Three in ten Norfolk adults do not take enough physical exercise to benefit their health. • Overall, Norfolk people continue to rate their life satisfaction more highly than the England average, although their anxiety level has worsened over the last year. • For Norfolk, the numbers diagnosed with diabetes are getting closer to what would be expected, suggesting that identification of the condition is improving. However, the number (and proportion) of people diagnosed is increasing. • For Norfolk during 2018/19, there were around 1,300 emergency admissions to hospitals as a result of hip fractures. • During the three-year period 2017 to 2019, in Norfolk around 265 people killed themselves. The rate for emergency hospital stays due to self-harm in Norfolk is significantly lower than the England average. • Norfolk’s rate of admissions to hospital for alcohol-related conditions is not significantly different to the England average. • For Norfolk, around three in five people with dementia have been diagnosed. • For Norfolk, life expectancy for males is 80.1 years and for females is 84.1 years, with both being significantly better than the England average. Males are living in poor health for an average of 17 years and females for 21 years. Crime and disorder levels in Norfolk • For most people Norfolk is very safe - it continues to have one of the lowest crime rates in the country. • Overall, the total number of crimes recorded by police in Norfolk decreased by around 0.5% over the 12 months to September 2020. Page 5 of 62 Produced by NCC Insight & Analytics Team Norfolk’s Story – March 2021 • The rate of total recorded offences per 1,000 residents for Norfolk has decreased to 71.6, which continues to be better (lower) than the national rate. • Total police recorded crime has decreased in the twelve months to September 2020 for Norwich and Great Yarmouth, with the other five Norfolk districts showing increases. • Norwich and Great Yarmouth continue to have higher crime rates than the Norfolk average. • Norfolk’s Crime Severity Score is better (lower) than the scores for the region and nationally, although the county has a higher score increase, indicating that the seriousness of types of crimes committed in Norfolk is increasing at a faster rate than regionally and nationally.
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