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“EMPOWERING SOCIETY” Faits Marquants 2019 (Plus De Faits Sur Le Site Web De La FEBEG)

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“EMPOWERING SOCIETY” Faits Marquants 2019 (Plus De Faits Sur Le Site Web De La FEBEG) Slide deck statistiques Rapport Annuel 2019 “EMPOWERING SOCIETY” Faits marquants 2019 (plus de faits sur le site Web de la FEBEG) La Chambre approuve la proposition de loi-cadre sur le CRM, soit le mécanisme de marché visant au soutien des capacités pilotables Les réseaux électriques britannique et belge connectés via Nemo Link Le gouvernement fédéral décide de désormais organiser des enchères pour l’implantation de nouveaux parc éoliens offshore Démarrage en juillet du déploiement des compteurs intelligents en Flandre Mémorandum FEBEG élections 2019 : « Ensemble pour une transition énergétique abordable ». La FEBEG propose aux pouvoirs publics la mise en place d’une « plateforme de transition énergétique » où pouvoirs publics, secteur de l’énergie et autres secteurs concernés puissent collaborer pour faire de cette transition un succès. Gel des tarifs sociaux pour le gaz et l’électricité par le gouvernement fédéral Avec un taux de disponibilité élevé des installations de production et une capacité de production en hausse, la Belgique redevient pour la première fois exportatrice nette d’électricité depuis 2009 European Green Deal : La Commission Européenne annonce un projet du type ‘man on the moon’ pour l’Europe. Ce projet transversal a pour ambition de combiner décarbonation et croissance économique à l’échelle européenne. 2 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 => plus de faits 2019 et de détails sur le site WEB de la FEBEG Economie & marchés 3 26/06/2019 • Annual report FEBEG 2018 “EMPOWERING SOCIETY” Economique Le chiffre d’affaires (2018*) Turnover (in thousands €) 30.000.000 26.251.794 25.598.777 -32,5% 25.000.000 23.460.326 21.730.108 17.723.180 20.000.000 18.362.633 17.854.001 17.766.64617.369.324 16.676.775 15.000.000 10.000.000 + 2 % 5.000.000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Légère progression du chiffre d’affaires. Un nouveau membre (Lampiris) s’est ajouté en 2019. A périmètre inchangé vs 2018 le chiffre d’affaires aurait en revanche encore diminué de -3,6% 4 17/06/2020 • Source: Belfirst - * Les chiffres de 2019 ne sont pas encore disponibles à ce jour. NB changement de périmètre de consolidation pour les 4 dernières années pour tenir compte de l’évolution du nombre de membres Economique La valeur ajoutée (2018*) Added value (in thousands €) 4.000.000 3.438.902 3.500.000 3.012.646 3.000.000 2.761.130 2.528.252 -72,8 % 2.500.000 2.396.103 2.074.139 1.952.023 2.000.000 1.664.179 1.593.127 1.500.000 1.000.000 935.024 500.000 -43,8 % 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Comme le confirme une étude du Consultant Arthur D.Little (02/2020), la situation financière des fournisseurs de gaz et d’électricité est structurellement trop faible en Belgique comparé aux pays voisins. 5 17/06/2019 • Source: Belfirst - * Les chiffres de 2019 ne sont pas encore disponibles à ce jour. NB : changement de périmètre de consolidation pour les 4 dernières années pour tenir compte de l’évolution du nombre de membres Social L’emploi stable chez les membres de la FEBEG 9000 8800 8.790 8600 8.587 -12,6% 8400 8200 8.310 8000 8.004 +2,1 % 7800 7.895 7.795 7.780 7600 7.683 7400 7.522 7200 7000 6800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 En additionnant l’emploi indirect, les membres de la FEBEG génèrent près de 23.000 emplois en Belgique (ratio de 2,94 selon le bureau du Plan). 6 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2018 Marchés du gaz Des sources d’approvisionnement diversifiées garantissent la sécurité d’approvisionnement Natural gas imports in Belgium Les importations de gaz by country of origin (2018) : 208,5 TWh néerlandais, qui se tariront fin 2029, se taillent toujours la part 2,9% 2,2% du lion dans le mix 13,2% 0,9% d’approvisionnement belge L’essentiel de l’approvisionnement provient de 50,3% sources européennes et de transport de gaz naturel via 39,0% pipeline, même si l’on observe une hausse progressive des approvisionnements en gaz liquéfié par bateau Others Germany Netherlands Norway Qatar United Kingdom 7 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 - Source SPF Economie (chiffres 2019 pas encore disponibles) Marchés du gaz Marché long terme: prix de gros en baisse vs 2018 Prix moyen ‘year ahead’ €/MWh 2018 (CAL 19) 2019 (CAL 20) 20,70 € - 12,1 % 18,19 € 8 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 Marchés du gaz Marché long terme ‘year ahead’ Evolution of the long term gas prices in 2019 - ICE Endex 22 TTF (EUR/MWh) 21 20 19 18 17 16 CAL20 CAL 21 CAL 22 15 14 13 12 Les prix à long-terme du gaz plongent, particulièrement en fin d’année, ce sous pression d’un approvisionnement abondant et d’un hiver peu rigoureux 9 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 Marchés du gaz Consommation de gaz pour la production d’électricité Evolution of natural gas consumption 70 67,1 for electricity production in Belgium 64,3 65 60 +4,1 % 54,6 53,9 55 -25% 50,2 50 48,1 48,2 46,3 44,6 44,7 45 42,5 39,7 40 35 Electricity production 30 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* Evolution positive, mais le niveau de production reste bien inférieur au pic de 2010 10 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 - Source: Synergrid Marchés du gaz Consommation de gaz pour la production d’électricité Gas consumption (kWh) of the Belgian Gas Power Plants in 2019 250.000.000 200.000.000 150.000.000 100.000.000 50.000.000 0 En toutes saisons, les unités de production gaz assurent la flexibilité dans le système électrique belge 11 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 - Source: Fluxys Marchés de l’électricité Marché court terme Prix moyen ‘day ahead’ €/MWh 2018 2019 57,09 € - 29,1 % 40,46 € 12 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 Marchés de l’électricité Marché court terme Evolution 2019 - Day Ahead Electricity Market (€/MWh) € 100,00 € 86,05 € 50,00 € - € -50,00 € -100,00 € -133,56 € -150,00 Prix moyens du marché day ahead -29% moins élevés qu’en 2018 13 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 Marchés de l’électricité Marché long terme Prix moyen ‘year ahead’ €/MWH 2018 (CAL 19) 2019 (CAL 20) 51,00 € +/- 0 % 50,98 € 14 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 Marchés de l’électricité Marchés long-termes : tendance baissière fin 2019 Evolution of the long term electricity prices in 2019 - ICE 58 Endex BE (EUR/MWh) 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 CAL20 CAL 21 CAL 22 42 40 38 15 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 Marchés de l’électricité Convergence des prix améliorée dans la zone CWE € 60,0 Annual average price convergence on electricity daily markets in the respective bidding zones € 55,0 € 55,3 € 50,0 € 49,4 € 47,5 € 47,0 € 45,0 € 46,3 € 40,0 € 45,0 € 44,7 € 40,8 € 41,2 € 40,0 € 39,4 € 39,4 € 37,8 € 36,6 € 35,0 € 30,0 € 25,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Belgium Netherlands France Germany Tassement convergent des prix moyens annuels sur les marchés quotidiens en 2019, ce tant en Belgique que dans les pays voisins. L’intégration eurorégionale des marché est toujours plus évidente. 16 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2020 – Source : Note de la CREG – (Z)2045 du 30 01 2020 Production électrique La production nette d’électricité en fort rebond Total net electricity production in Belgium (TWh) 2007-2019 100 + 24,9 % 95 91,5 89,9 90 87,5 86,7 85,1 83,1 85 81,4 82,5 79,8 80,3 80 75 72,0 69,8 70 67,4 65 60 Une disponibilité normale du parc nucléaire belge permet à la production d’électricité de retrouver des niveaux normaux dans notre pays 17 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2018 - Source: SPF Economie, Eurostat Production électrique Un mix de production électrique varié Total net electricity production in Belgium by production technology 2019* (89,85 TWh) 0,5% 4,2% 10,2% Thermal, incl. biomass 37,3% Pumped hydro Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar 46,5% 0,9% Other 0,3% 84% de l’électricité produite provient des filières classiques : électricité de sources thermiques (dont biomasse) et nucléaire. Un peu moins de 15% provient de l’éolien et du solaire. 18 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 - Source: SPF Economie et estimations propres de la FEBEG Production électrique Evolution du taux de charge des installations Load factor: percentage of total number of hours per year when production assets are in operation in Belgium (equivalent full load hours capacity) 90% 84% 80% 70% 60% 50% 43% 38% 40% 27% 30% 18% 20% 9% 10% 0% Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Onshore Wind Offshore Solar PV 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Le taux de charge est élevé dans le nucléaire et dans le gaz naturel. Cela permet à la Belgique de redevenir exportatrice nette d’électricité en 2019. 19 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 – calculs FEBEG + données Apere pour l’éolien Production électrique Capacité de production installée record Installed capacity in Belgium by production technology (MW) +4,5 % 25.000,00 24.340 Biomass and biogas 20.000,00 Solar Wind 15.000,00 Hydro Pumped hydro 10.000,00 Nuclear 5.000,00 Conventional thermal 0,00 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* La capacité continue à progresser de 4,5 % pour culminer à 24.340 MW, ce sous l’impulsion de la forte croissance du solaire et de l’éolien tant onshore que offshore 20 17/06/2020 • Annual report FEBEG 2019 - Source: Elia, ENTSOE, Apere Production électrique Capacité de production installée record Installed capacity in Belgium by production technology 100% 90% 80% Biomass and biogas 70% Solar 60% Wind 50% Hydro 40% 30% Pumped hydro 20% Nuclear 10% Conventional thermal 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* La capacité installée progresse de 4,5 % pour culminer à 24.340 MW, principalement sous l’impulsion de la forte croissance du solaire
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