Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 Surface and Groundwater Modelling of the Ganga River Basin GRBMP: Ganga River Basin Management Plan by Indian Institutes of Technology IIT IIT IIT IIT IIT IIT IIT Bombay Delhi Guwahati Kanpur Kharagpur Madras Roorkee 1 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 Preface In exercise of the powers conferred by sub-sections (1) and (3) of Section 3 of the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986 (29 of 1986), the Central Government has constituted National Ganga River Basin Authority (NGRBA) as a planning, financing, monitoring and coordinating authority for strengthening the collective efforts of the Central and State Government for effective abatement of pollution and conservation of the river Ganga. One of the important functions of the NGRBA is to prepare and implement a Ganga River Basin Management Plan (GRBMP). A Consortium of 7 Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) has been given the responsibility of preparing Ganga River Basin Management Plan (GRBMP) by the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), GOI, New Delhi. Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) has been signed between 7 IITs (Bombay, Delhi, Guwahati, Kanpur, Kharagpur, Madras and Roorkee) and MoEF for this purpose on July 6, 2010. This report is one of the many reports prepared by IITs to describe the strategy, information, methodology, analysis and suggestions and recommendations in developing Ganga River Basin Management Plan (GRBMP). The overall Frame Work for documentation of GRB EMP and Indexing of Reports is presented on the inside cover page. There are two aspects to the development of GRBMP. Dedicated people spent hours discussing concerns, issues and potential solutions to problems. This dedication leads to the preparation of reports that hope to articulate the outcome of the dialog in a way that is useful. Many people contributed to the preparation of this report directly or indirectly. This report is therefore truly a collective effort that reflects the cooperation of many, particularly those who are members of the IIT Team. Lists of persons who have contributed directly and those who have taken lead in preparing this report is given on the reverse side. Dr Vinod Tare Professor and Coordinator Development of GRBMP IIT Kanpur 2 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 The Team Team Leader: Prof A K Gosain, IIT Delhi Faculty Students & Staffs IIT Delhi Prof R Khosa Jatin Anand, Research Scholar Dr R Maheswaran, INSPIRE Faculty Jyoti Nale, Research Scholar Prof B R Chahar Jayshree Patel, Research Scholar Dr C T Dhanya Chakresh Sahu, Research Scholar Dr D R Kaushal Ravindra Pal Singh, Research Assistant Sanjay Sharma, Research Assistant Sankalp Lahiri, , Research Assistant IIT Madras Prof B S Murty Dr Balaji Narasimhan IIT Guwahati Prof Subashisa Dutta Dr Suresh Kartha IIT Kharagpur Prof D J Sen Dr Anirban Dhar IIT Kanpur Dr Shivam Tripathi IIT Roorkee Prof P Perumal Prof C S P Ojha NIH Roorkee Dr S K Jain Consultants Prof R Srinivasan, Professor, Texas A&M University Dr Sandhya Rao, Executive Director, INRM Dr S K Sharma, Ex- Member, CGWB Dr S K Sinha, CGWB 3 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 Content Executive Summary Page 1 Introduction 10 The Ganga River Basin Profile 10 Physiography 10 Climate 11 Drainage and Major Tributaries 12 Geotectonic Framework 12 Sedimentation in the Ganga Basin 13 Soils 13 Landuse 13 Demography 14 Irrigation 14 2 Surface Water Modelling (SWAT) - for the Ganga River Basin: Calibration and 16 Validation Objective of the Study 16 Methodology 16 Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model 16 Advantages of the SWAT Model 18 Development of Hydrological Model for the Ganga River Basin 19 Data Used 19 Model Performance 20 Mapping the Ganga River Basin 21 Basin Demarcation 22 Watershed (Sub-Basin) Delineation 23 Land Cover/Land Use Layer 24 Soil Layer 25 Hydro-Meteorological and Water Resources Structures Data 25 Model Assumptions 27 Swat Model Performance for the Study Area 28 Water Balance Estimates Based on the Calibrated/Validated SWAT Model 36 Flow Duration Curve and Flow Dependability 48 Conclusions 52 Limitations 52 3 Groundwater Modelling 54 Introduction 54 Background 54 Objectives of the Groundwater Modelling 55 Hydrogeology 55 Unconsolidated Formations 56 4 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 Page Semi-Consolidated Formations 56 Consolidate Formations 56 Aquifer Geometry 57 Recharge to the Deeper Aquifer 59 Occurrence of Ground Water under Artesian Pressure 60 Hydrogeological Situation in Foredeep 60 Geometry of Shivaliks Aquifers 60 Groundwater Flow Modelling 62 Finite Difference Approximation 62 Model Conceptualization and Data Acquisition 63 Model Area and Boundary. 63 Aquifer Geometry 65 Aquifer Parameters 65 Recharge 66 Groundwater Draft through Pumping 66 Boundary Conditions 67 Conceptualization of Flow Regime and Model Design 69 Model Calibration 70 Transient State Calibration 70 Pest (Parameter Estimation By Sequential Testing) Run 71 Discussions of Results 79 Mass Balance 79 Conclusions and Recommendations 80 4 Water Demand- Stylised Scenario Simulation 82 Description of The Scenarios 82 Scenario 1 – Current Baseline 82 Scenario 2 - Virgin Condition 83 Scenario- 3 - Implementation of Planned Projects (Future Scenario) 83 Scenario -4 - Business as usual with Increased Irrigation Efficiency Condition 83 Attributing Impact of Increased Irrigation Efficiency Condition 83 Model Results 84 Yamuna Sub-Basin 84 Ganga Basin before Allahabad 86 Ghaghra Basin 87 Chambal Basin 88 Sindh Basin 89 Betwa Basin 90 Ken Basin 91 Gandak and Kosi Basin 91 Son Basin 94 Ton Basin 95 Ground Water Results 96 Recommendations 100 Appendix 102 5 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 List of figures Figure Page 1 Geographical Context of the Ganga river basin 10 2 The Ganga river basin 19 3 Digital Elevation Model of the Ganga river basin 21 4 Basin delineation using DEM for the Ganga river basin 22 5 Sub basin delineation using DEM for the Ganga river basin 23 6 Landuse map for the Ganga river basin 24 7 Soil map for the Ganga river basin 25 8 IMD Gridded Rainfall and Temperature grid locations for the Ganga river basin 26 9 Water resources structure locations for the Ganga river basin 27 10 SWAT Calibration Locations for the Ganga river basin 28 11 Line Diagram of Calibration Locations for the Ganga river basin 29 12 SWAT Calibration Locations for the Ganga river basin 30 13 Model performance graph for the Ganga river basin 35 14 SWAT Model Performance for the Ganga river basin 36 15 Annual and seasonal water balance components for the Ganga river basin 37 16 Long-term Monthly water balance components for the Ganga river basin 39 17 Spatial distribution of Annual and seasonal water balance components for the Ganga 40 river basin 18 Spatial distribution of contribution of snowmelt to stream flow for the Ganga river 42 basin 19 Annual water balance components for major tributaries of the Ganga river basin 43 20 Flow Duration Curve at selected Locations for the Ganga river basin 49 21 Hydrogeology of the Ganga river basin 55 22 Fence diagrams for Yamuna, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (CGWB Report, 57 1996) 23 Flowchart Showing the Recharge process in the Ganga river basin 61 24 Groundwater Model Area and Boundary - Ganga river basin 63 25 Modified Portion of the Ganga basin used for groundwater modelling 64 26 Final Portion of the Ganga basin used for Groundwater modelling 64 27 Conductivity zones of the entire Ganga Basin 65 28 Specific yield values for the different zones of the entire Ganga Basin 66 29 Major River Network in Ganga River Basin 67 30 Incorporated River network boundary conditions in the Groundwater model 68 31 Implementation of Specified flow Boundary in the MODFLOW 69 32 Model region as represented in MODFLOW 70 33 Location of the observation wells 71 34 Simulated versus observed heads at the end of 723 days since May 2000 (a) datum as 72 mean sea level (b) datum as local ground level 35 Calibration residual Histogram 74 36 Time series plot of the Model results and observations for three observation wells 74 6 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 Figure Page 37 Contour plot of the water levels (msl) obtained from the model using PEST 76 38 Depth to water Table in Ganga basin ( Pre monsoon and Post monsoon average) 77 39 Scatter plot between the simulated water levels using auto calibration and observed 77 water levels 40 Mass balance for the entire study region 80 41 Annual Water Balance for Yamuna Basin Till Agra 85 42 Annual Water Balance for Ganga Basin Till Allahabad 86 43 Annual Water Balance for Ghagra Basin 87 44 Annual Water Balance for Chambal Basin 88 45 Annual Water Balance for Sindh Basin 89 46 Annual Water Balance for Betwa Basin 90 47 Annual Water Balance for Ken Basin 91 48 Annual Water Balance for Gandak Basin 92 49 Annual Water Balance for Kosi Basin 93 50 Annual Water Balance for Son Basin 94 51 Annual Water Balance for Tons Basin 95 52 Plot showing the Depth to Water Table for Present and Virgin 96 53 Plot showing the Depth to Water Table for different scenarios 97 54 Plot showing the Surface GW interaction for Present and Virgin 98 55 Plot showing the Surface GW interaction for different scenarios-Pre Monsoon 99 7 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 List of Tables Table Page 1 Elevation Summary – Ganga Basin 22 2 Statistics on growth of errors at various stages of model runtime ( the results 76 are wrt the msl datum) 3 Scenarios used in the study 82 8 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 Chapter 1 Introduction 9 | P a g e Report Code: 057_GBP_IIT_ WRM_ANL_02_Ver 1_Aug 2014 Chapter 1 - Introduction The Ganga River Basin profile The river Ganga is a part of the composite Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin draining 1,086,000square kilometres in China, Nepal, India and Bangladesh the Ganga-Brahmaputra divide.