Demonstration of Tsunami and Storm Surge Modeling

Disaster Mitigation Workshop APAN 44 at Dalian, China

Yu-Lin Tsai1, Tso-Ren Wu1, Simon C. Lin2, Eric Yen2

1Graduate Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, NCU, Taiwan 2Academia Sinica Grid Computing, ASGC, Taiwan

水文與海洋科學研究所 Tsunami Science Laboratory Tsunami Disaster

http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEd http://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2017 geArticles/ArticleID/9563/Can-Acoustic-Waves-Act-as- /08/ghosts-tsunami-what-disaster-japan-left-behind Tsunami-Detectors.aspx 2 /49 COMCOT Tsunami Model COrnell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model

Solve nonlinear shallow water equation directly �� 1 �� + + �� = 0 �� 1 � � 1 � �� + + + − � � + � = 0 ��

�Q 1 � �� 1 � � �� + + + + � � + � = 0 �t ��

• Solve nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates. • Explicit leapfrog Finite Difference Method for stable and high speed calculation. • Multi/Nested-grid system for multiple shallow water wave scales. • Moving Boundary Scheme for inundation.

• High-speed efficiency of OpenMp parallel computation. 3 /49 COMCOT has been used on many scientific papers At least 26 SCI papers were published during 2001 to 2011 (Including Science)

1. Title: Long waves through emergent coastal vegetation 7. Title: An insitu borescopic quantitative imaging profiler for the 12. Title: Analytical and numerical simulation of tsunami Author(s): Mei Chiang C.; Chan I-Chi; Liu Philip L. -F.; et al. measurement of high concentration sediment velocity mitigation by mangroves in Penang, Malaysia Source: JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS Volume: 687 Pages: Author(s): Cowen Edwin A.; Dudley Russell D.; Liao Qian; et al. Author(s): Teh Su Yean; Koh Hock Lye; Liu Philip Li-Fan; et al. 461-491 DOI: 10.1017/jfm.2011.373 Published: NOV 2011 Source: EXPERIMENTS IN FLUIDS Volume: 49 Issue: 1 Special Issue: Source: JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES Volume: 36 SI Pages: 77-88 DOI: 10.1007/s00348-009-0801-8 Published: JUL Issue: 1 Pages: 38-46 DOI: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.09.007 2. Title: Insights on the 2009 South Pacific tsunami in Samoa 2010 Published: SEP 4 2009 and Tonga from field surveys and numerical simulations Author(s): Fritz Hermann M.; Borrero Jose C.; Synolakis Costas 8. Title: Tsunami hazard from the subduction megathrust of the 13. Title: Simulation of Andaman 2004 tsunami for assessing E.; et al. South China Sea: Part I. Source characterization and the resulting impact on Malaysia Source: EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS Volume: 107 Issue: 1-2 tsunami Author(s): Koh Hock Lye; Teh Su Yean; Liu Philip Li-Fan; et al. Special Issue: SI Pages: 66-75 DOI: Author(s): Megawati Kusnowidjaja; Shaw Felicia; Sieh Kerry; et al. Source: JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES Volume: 36 10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.03.004 Published: JUL 2011 Source: JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES Volume: 36 Issue: 1 Issue: 1 Pages: 74-83 DOI: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.09.008 Pages: 13-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.11.012 Published: SEP 4 Published: SEP 4 2009 3. Title: Solid landslide generated waves 2009 Author(s): Wang Yang; Liu Philip L. -F.; Mei Chiang C. 14. Title: SPECIAL ISSUE Tsunamis in Asia Preface Source: JOURNAL OF FLUID MECHANICS Volume: 675 Pages: 9. Title: Simulation of Andaman 2004 tsunami for assessing impact Author(s): Liu Philip L. -F.; Huang Bor-Shouh 529-539 DOI: 10.1017/S0022112011000681 Published: MAY on Malaysia Source: JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES Volume: 36 2011 Author(s): Koh Hock Lye; Teh Su Yean; Liu Philip Li-Fan; et al. Issue: 1 Pages: 1-1 DOI: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2009.05.001 Source: JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES Volume: 36 Issue: 1 Published: SEP 4 2009 4. Title: An explicit finite difference model for simulating Pages: 74-83 DOI: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.09.008 Published: SEP 4 weakly nonlinear and weakly dispersive waves over slowly 2009 15. Title: INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI ON 26 DECEMBER 2004: varying water depth Times Cited: 0 (from Web of Science) NUMERICAL MODELING OF INUNDATION IN THREE CITIES ON Author(s): Wang Xiaoming; Liu Philip L-F THE SOUTH COAST OF SRI LANKA Source: COASTAL ENGINEERING Volume: 58 Issue: 2 Pages: 10. Title: Modeling tsunami hazards from Manila trench to Taiwan Author(s): Wijetunge J. J.; Wang Xiaoming; Liu Philip L. -F. 173-183 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.09.008 Published: Author(s): Wu Tso-Ren; Huang Hui-Chuan Source: JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI Volume: 2 FEB 2011 Source: JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES Volume: 36 Issue: 1 Issue: 2 Pages: 133-155 Published: JUN 2008 Pages: 21-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.12.006 Published: SEP 4 5. Title: Field Survey of the Samoa Tsunami of 29 September 2009 16. Title: TSUNAMI SOURCE REGION PARAMETER 2009 Times Cited: 0 (from Web of Science) IDENTIFICATION AND TSUNAMI FORECASTING Author(s): Okal Emile A.; Fritz Hermann M.; Synolakis Costas E.; Author(s): Liu Philip L. -F.; Wang Xiaoming et al. 11. Title: Tsunami hazard and early warning system in South China Source: JOURNAL OF EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI Volume: 2 Source: SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Volume: 81 Sea Issue: 2 Pages: 87-106 Published: JUN 2008 Issue: 4 Pages: 577-591 DOI: 10.1785/gssrl.81.4.577 Author(s): Liu Philip L. -F.; Wang Xiaoming; Salisbury Andrew J. Published: JUL-AUG 2010 Source: JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES Volume: 36 Issue: 1 17. Title: Bottom friction and its effects on periodic long wave Pages: 2-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.12.010 Published: SEP 4 propagation 6. Title: Impact of a 1755-like tsunami in Huelva, Spain 2009 Author(s): Orfila A.; Simarro G.; Liu P. L. F. Author(s): Lima V. V.; Miranda J. M.; Baptista M. A.; et al. Source: COASTAL ENGINEERING Volume: 54 Issue: 11 Pages: （） Source: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 856-864 DOI: 10.1016/j.coastalene.2007.05.013 Published: To be continued Volume: 10 Issue: 1 Pages: 139-148 Published: 2010 NOV 2007 4 /49 Supporting Tool with COMCOT Tsunami Model

• Fortran Compiler: ifort

• Data Processing: MATLAB/Octave

• Figure Plotting: MATLAB/Octave

5 /49 1. Demonstration of 2004 Sumatra Tsunami Tsunami Source Reconstruction of 2004 Sumatra Tsunami

Source Constraints and Model Simulation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean Tsunami (Grilli et al., 2007)

7 /49 Initial Tsunami Wave Height of 2004 Sumatra Tsunami

Bangladesh Myanmar

Malaysia

India Sumatra

Sri Lanka

8 /49 Bangladesh

Myanmar

Malaysia

Sumatra

India

Sri Lanka

9 /49 2. Demonstration of 2011 Japan Tsunami Tsunami Source Reconstruction of 2011 Japan Tsunami

Development of a tsunami early warning system for the South China Sea (Lin et al., 2015)

11 /49 12 /49 Maximum Tsunami Wave Height of 2011 Japan Tsunami

13 /49 iCOMCOT Cloud Computing Service at ASGC

iCOMCOT (https://icomcot.twgrid.org/index.html)

14 /49 15 /49 Storm Surge Modeling STORM SURGE

• Storm surge is a coastal flood of rising water commonly associated with low pressure weather systems : ü Tropical cyclones ü Storms ü Typhoons Sea Surface induced by typhoons (Wiki) ü Hurricanes

• The two main meteorological factors contributing to a storm surge are: ü Pressure gradient ü Wind shear stress

Tidal Effect with Storm Surges (Wiki) 17 /49 Inundation induced by Storm Surges • Destroy of homes and business • Potential threat of coastal communities • Damages of roads and bridges

Inundation induced by 2005 Hurricane Katrina. Flooded by storm surge of Hurricane Katrina (2005) in the northwest New Orleans. (http://www.stormsurge.noaa.gov/) 18 /49 Tropical Cyclones in East Asia

Korea Taiwan Japan China

Taiwan Hong Kong

Pacific Ocean

Philippines Philippines South China Sea

Tracks of all tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific Ocean between 1951 and 2014.

19 /49 COMCOT-SURGE Model (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model – Storm Surge) Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations on the Spherical Coordinate ¶¶¶h 1 ìüP ++íý()cosj ×Q = 0 ¶¶¶tRcosjyîþ j

2 s ¶¶¶P 11æöPæö PQ gH ¶h b H ¶Pa Fy +++ç÷ ç÷ -fQ+ Fy =-+ ¶¶tRcosjyèø H R ¶ jèø H Rcosjy ¶ rwwRcos jy¶ r

2 s ¶¶¶Q 11æöPQæö Q gH ¶h b H ¶Pa Fj ++++ç÷ ç÷ fP+ Fj =-+ ¶¶tRcosjyèø H R ¶ jèø H R ¶ j rwwR ¶ y r

• Fortran Compiler: ifort

• Data Processing: MATLAB/Octave

• Figure Plotting: MATLAB/Octave

21 /49 1. The Case Study of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

Source: Hong Kong Observatory 22 /49 Four-Level Nested Computational Domain

LAYER 01 (4 km)

LAYER 02 (1 km) • Layer 01 can cover the complete typhoon life cycle of Typhoon Haiyan and the full storm surge propagation.

• Layer 02 can include the offshore hydrodynamic progresses of storm surge on the fine mesh domain.

23 /49 Near-shore Computational Domain Layer 03 (500 m)/ Layer 04 (120 m) LAYER 04 (120 m) LAYER 03 (500 m)

Leyte Gulf

The computational domain of Layer 03 and Layer 04 could cover the storm surge propagations in offshore and nearshore regions. 24 /49 Combine with the Atmospheric WRF Model Pressure Field

Wind Field • Asymmetric effect • Topographic effect • Hydrodynamic Pressure

The WRF simulations are provided by Prof. Chuan- Yao Lin, AAR Modeling Laboratory (Sinica). 25 /49 Storm Surges Induced by Typhoon Haiyan 2013.11.06 00:00 – 2013.11.09 00:00 (UTC+0)

Large computational domain to cover the complete storm surge propagation induced by Typhoon Haiyan with Coriolis effect.

26 /49 Snapshots of Storm Surges in the Philippines

27 /49 Maximum Simulated Storm Tides at Leyte Gulf

28 /49 2. Demonstration of Operational Storm Surge Prediction in Taiwan 2016 Catogory-5 Typhoon Nepartak in Taiwan

Our COMCOT storm surge model has been to the official operational system at CWB, Taiwan since Typhoon Nepartak.

The track of Typhoon Nepartak (CWB, Taiwan) U.S Naval Research Laboratory 30 /49 Storm Surge Operational Task Our COMCOT storm surge model has been the official operational system at the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) from 2016.

COMCOT Start INPUT Storm Surge OUTPUT Exit Model

Parametric Typhoon Model (3 hr/cycle) / TWRF Model (6 hr/cycle)

Ø Meteorological Force: Parametric Typhoon Model or TWRF Model. INPUT Ø Tidal Boundary Condition: TPXO 7.1 model.

Ø 48-HR Time Series for Storm Tide and Pure Tide at 34 specified locations. OUTPUT

Ø 2-dimensional model product. 31 /49 Schematic Diagram for Storm Tide Run and Pure Tide Run

48-HR Warm-up 48-HR Forecast Storm Tide Run Start (Storm Surge + Tide) 2015.09.01 2015.09.03 2015.09.05 02:00 (UTC+8) 02:00 (UTC+8) 02:00 (UTC+8)

Pure Tide Run 96-HR Forecast 2015.09.01 2015.09.05 02:00 (UTC+8) 02:00 (UTC+8)

1. Every forecasting includes two 96-HR computations, and one for storm tide (storm surge + tide) run and another for pure tide run.

2. There are 48-HR warm-up and 48-HR forecast at each storm tide run.

32 /49 Two-level Nested-grid Domain for Operational Task Layer 01 (8 km)/Layer 02 (2 km)

LAYER 01 (Deep-water Regions) LAYER 02 (Offshore Regions)

33 /49 Grid Information of Two-Level Nested Domains

Grid Bathymetry Layer ID Domain Array Size Number Database

LAYER-01 (110.00-134.00, 10.00-35.00) 361 * 376 135,736 ETOPO 1

LAYER-02-A (119.80-122.25, 21.40-25.50) 144 * 244 35,136 GEBCO

LAYER-02-B (119.09-119.80, 23.05-23.89) 80 * 88 7,040 GEBCO

LAYER-02-C (117.80-118.99, 24.09-24.70) 136 * 72 9,792 GEBCO

LAYER-02-D (119.39-120.19, 25.84-26.35) 88 * 48 4,224 GEBCO

34 /49 Tide Validation of COMCOT-SURGE Model Toucheng (2016.09.11 00:00 – 2016.09.15 00:00) 頭城

Dawu 大武

Anping 安平

35 /49 Storm Surges Induced by Typhoon Nepartak

Storm surges could be calculated for 2-day predictions and only spends 1.0 hr on a PC-level computational resources. 36 /49 Surge and Wave in Taiwan (http://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1271353- 20160708.htm)

People live in these areas need to pay attention to the storm surge inundation.

37 /49 3. 2016 Severe Typhoon Meranti

Typhoon Meranti was one of the most intense tropical cyclones on record. Impacting the Batanes in the Philippines, Taiwan, as well as Fujian, China in September 2016.

Best-track parameters of Typhoon Meranti 近中心最中心位置中心氣壓七級風半徑年月日時大風速 (經/緯) (Pa) (km) (m/s) 2016 9 12 00 130.4 18.0 940 180 45 2016 9 12 06 129.3 18.3 925 200 51 2016 9 12 12 128.2 18.9 910 200 55 2016 9 12 18 126.7 19.3 905 200 58 2016 9 13 00 125.5 19.6 905 200 58 2016 9 13 06 124.1 20.2 905 200 58 2016 9 13 12 122.9 20.4 900 220 60 2016 9 13 18 121.8 20.9 905 220 58 2016 9 14 00 120.8 21.5 905 220 58 2016 9 14 06 119.8 22.6 925 200 51 2016 9 14 12 118.9 23.4 930 200 48 2016 9 14 18 118.4 24.4 950 180 40 2016 9 15 00 117.6 25.2 970 150 33

莫蘭蒂路徑圖 38 /49 3-D Demonstration of Storm Surge Modeling in Deep-water Regions

39 /49 3. Demonstration of High-Resolution Storm Surge Inundation Calculation in Taiwan Typhoon Soudelor in 2015 • Typhoon Soudelor was the strongest typhoon in Western North Pacific regions at 2015. According to the brief analysis, more than 4,000 thousands families lost their electricity during typhoon period and accumulative rainfall is more than 1,000 mm. • Because of the destructive damages, economic loss and human casualties at Mariana Islands, Taiwan, and China, the name “Soudelor” was removed from the list of typhoon names and would not be used forever.

（資料來源：中央氣象局颱風資料庫） The flood in low-lying region at Ilan because of Typhoon Soudelor.()中央社記者沈如峰宜蘭縣 41 /49 Nested-Grid Computational Domain (1) – Open Ocean and Offshore Region

Res = 4.0 km

Layer 01 is adopted to cover the complete typhoons’ life cycle and full storm surge propagations.

採用大尺度之球座標系統計算域，涵蓋颱風生命週期以及完整的風暴潮傳遞歷程。

42 /49 Nested-Grid Computational Domain (2) - Near-Shore and Coastal Region

Res = 1.0 km Res = 0.2 km

Layer 02 and Layer 03 are adopted to calculate nonlinear shallow water equations with tidal effect, bottom effects, and Coriolis effect, and evaluate inundation area in the resolution of 200 meters. 43 /49 Large-Scale Storm Surge Simulation on Spherical Coordinate System 2015.08.02 00:00 – 2015.08.09 06:00 (UTC)

Pressure Field

Wind Field

The large computational domain is adopted to simulate the complete storm surge propagation on spherical coordinate system.

44 /49 Coastal Inundation Calculation

Storm Tides (Storm Surge + Tide) Pure Tide

Pingtung Pingtung

Our COMCOT storm surge model could also calculation the inundation area with nonlinear shallow water equations which considers nonlinear effects, bottom effects, and Coriolis effects inside.

45 /49 Combine with GIS Google Earth Software

46 /49 Comparison with Observed Data 2015.08.06 00:00 -2015.08.09 06:00 (UTC)

The tide observed data are provided by our CWB in Taiwan.

47 /49 Conclusion • Demonstration of Tsunami Modeling • 2004 Sumatra Tsunami • 2011 Japan Tsunami

• Demonstration of Storm Surge Modeling • 2013 Typhoon Haiyan (Philippines) • 2015 Typhoon Soudelor (Taiwan) • 2016 Typhoon Netpark (Taiwan) • 2016 Typhoon Meranti (Taiwan)

• iCOMCOT – Cloud Tsunami Modeling Service

• iSurge – Coming soon

48 /49 Welcome for Discussion!

水文與海洋科學研究所 Tsunami Science Laboratory

Prof. Tso-Ren Wu ([email protected]) Dr. Eric Yen ([email protected]) National Central University, Taiwan ASGC, Sinica, Taiwan

Yu-Lin Tsai ([email protected]) Prof. Simon C. Lin ([email protected]) National Central University, Taiwan ASGC, Sinica, Taiwan

49 /49 Source Constraints and Model Simulation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean Tsunami

Stéphan T. Grilli; Mansour Ioualalen; Jack Asavanant; Fengyan Shi; James T. Kirby; and Philip Watts

50 /49 Source Parameters (Grilli et al., 2007)

51 /49 (1). NOAA Benchmark Problem Validation Compare with the Solitary Wave Run-up Experiments (Synolakis, 1986 and 1987).

(from NOAA Official Website)

soliton

Simulated by COMCOT (Wu, 2012)

52 /49 (2). High-speed Calculation CWB COMCOT-Surge Model can finish 48 hrs forecast in 30 mins and be used for the operational system.

Parallel Computing on Multi Cores.

Dynamic resources sharing. The results has been published on Ocean Engineering (Simon C. Lin et al., 2015). 53 /49 (3). Combine with the Atmospheric Model WRF/TWRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)

• TWRF model is an atmospheric model adopted for Wind Field operational forecasts by Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan.

• The TWRF model will start its simulation per 6 hours in a day at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC time respectively.

Pressure Field

54 /49 WRF Computational Domain (CWB) (4). Combine with Global Tide Model (USA OSU TOPEX/POSEIDON Global Tidal Model)

The tides are provided as complex amplitudes of earth-relative sea-surface elevation for eight primary (M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1, Q1), two long period (Mf,Mm) and 3 non-linear (M4, MS4, MN4) harmonic constituents.

User Interface of TPXO

TPXO can provide tidal information, like M2. (Dushaw et al., 1997) 55 /49 (5). High-Accuracy Tide Simulation The bias is smaller than 0.1 m and RMSE is smaller than 0.4 m.

Validated Gauge Locations at Taiwan

The observed data and harmonic data are provided by CWB (Taiwan). 56 /49 Forecast Product (1) Maximum Storm Surge

2016年莫蘭蒂颱風颱風警報單時間：2016031308

(颱風資料庫提供) 57 /49 Forecast Product (2) Maximum Storm Tides 2016年莫蘭蒂颱風颱風警報單時間：2016031308

(颱風資料庫提供)

58 /49 Forecast Product (3) Maximum Tides 2016年莫蘭蒂颱風颱風警報單時間：2016031308

(颱風資料庫提供)

59 /49 Forecast Product (4) Maximum Storm Tides – Maximum Tides

2016年莫蘭蒂颱風颱風警報單時間：2016031308

(颱風資料庫提供)

60 /49