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Assessment of the Relative Risk of Water Quality to Ecosystems of the Eastern Cape York NRM Region, Great Barrier Reef

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Assessment of the Relative Risk of Water Quality to Ecosystems of the Eastern Cape York NRM Region, Great Barrier Reef Assessment of the relative risk of degraded water quality to ecosystems of the eastern Cape York NRM Region, Great Barrier Reef Authors: Jane Waterhouse, Jon Brodie, Caroline Coppo, Dieter Tracey, Eduardo da Silva, Christina Howley, Caroline Petus, Len McKenzie, Stephen Lewis, Gillian McCloskey, Will Higham Report No. 16/24 January 2016 Assessment of the relative risk of degraded water quality to ecosystems of the eastern Cape York NRM Region, Great Barrier Reef A Report for South Cape York Catchments as part of the Cape York Water Quality Improvement Plan projects Report No. 16/24 January 2016 Jane Waterhouse, Jon Brodie, Caroline Coppo, Dieter Tracey, Eduardo da Silva, Christina Howley, Caroline Petus, Len McKenzie, Stephen Lewis, Gillian McCloskey, Will Higham Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research (TropWATER) James Cook University Townsville Phone : (07) 4781 4262 Email: [email protected] Web: www.jcu.edu.au/tropwater/ This report should be cited as: Waterhouse, J., Brodie, J., Coppo, C., Tracey, D., da Silva, E., Howley, C., Petus, C., McKenzie, L., Lewis, S., McCloskey, G., Higham, W. 2016. Assessment of the relative risk of water quality to ecosystems of the eastern Cape York NRM Region, Great Barrier Reef. A report to South Cape York Catchments. TropWATER Report 16/24, Townsville, Australia. For further information contact: Jane Waterhouse Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research (TropWATER) James Cook University Email: [email protected] This publication has been compiled by the Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research (TropWATER), James Cook University. © James Cook University, 2016. Except as permitted by the Copyright Act 1968, no part of the work may in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or any other means be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or be broadcast or transmitted without the prior written permission of TropWATER. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. The copyright owner shall not be liable for technical or other errors or omissions contained herein. The reader/user accepts all risks and responsibility for losses, damages, costs and other consequences resulting directly or indirectly from using this information. Enquiries about reproduction, including downloading or printing the web version, should be directed to [email protected]. i Acknowledgements The authors of this report would like to thank South Cape York Catchments and Cape York NRM for the project funding, and all of the authors for their valuable contributions to the project. Disclaimers TropWATER advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. To the extent permitted by law, TropWATER (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. i Contents Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................................................i Disclaimers .....................................................................................................................................................................i Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 8 2 Methods ............................................................................................................................................................ 12 2.1 The water quality risk assessment framework ........................................................................................... 12 2.2 Habitats and boundaries ............................................................................................................................ 15 2.2.1 The Cape York marine NRM region .................................................................................................. 15 2.2.2 Cape York sub-regions ...................................................................................................................... 15 2.2.3 Defining basin ‘Zones of Influence’................................................................................................... 15 2.2.4 Habitat mapping ............................................................................................................................... 17 2.3 Selecting and classifying variables for estimating ecological risk ............................................................... 17 2.3.1 Annual TSS and Chlorophyll .............................................................................................................. 17 2.3.2 TSS, DIN and PN loading ................................................................................................................... 23 2.3.3 Pesticide concentration mapping ..................................................................................................... 26 2.3.4 Other variables ................................................................................................................................. 28 2.4 Assessment Indexes .................................................................................................................................... 32 2.4.1 Marine Risk Index ............................................................................................................................. 32 2.4.2 Loads Index ....................................................................................................................................... 34 2.4.3 COTS Influence Index ........................................................................................................................ 35 2.4.4 Relative Risk Index ............................................................................................................................ 37 2.5 Recognising and assessing uncertainties in the data ................................................................................. 37 3 Results ............................................................................................................................................................... 39 3.1 River Zones of Influence ............................................................................................................................. 39 3.2 Habitat areas .............................................................................................................................................. 44 3.3 Relative differences between marine water quality variables and basin influences ................................. 45 3.4 Marine Risk Index: Combined risk of degraded water quality to coral reefs and seagrass ....................... 60 3.5 Loads Index: Assessment of end-of-catchment pollutant loads ................................................................ 64 3.6 COTS Influence Index .................................................................................................................................. 72 3.7 Combined assessment: Relative Risk Index ................................................................................................ 76 4 Linking Marine Risk to land based pollutant loads ............................................................................................ 80 4.1 Catchment land use .................................................................................................................................... 80 4.2 Ports and Shipping ...................................................................................................................................... 87 4.3 Future scenarios ......................................................................................................................................... 94 4.4 Conclusions and potential management priorities .................................................................................... 94 5 Limitations to the risk assessment and future needs ........................................................................................ 96 6 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 99 Executive Summary A risk assessment method was developed and applied to the eastern catchments of the Cape York Natural Resource Management (NRM) region in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to provide robust and scientifically defensible information for catchment managers on the key land-based pollutants of greatest risk to the health of the two main GBR ecosystems (coral reefs and seagrass beds) in the region. The main water quality pollutants of concern for the whole GBR are enhanced levels of suspended sediments, excess nutrients and pesticides (predominantly photosystem II inhibiting herbicides) added to the GBR lagoon from the adjacent catchments. Until
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