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Oktoberfest 2015: Beer Price Inflation?

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Oktoberfest 2015: Beer Price Inflation? 16 September 2015 Economics & FI/FX Research Economics Special Oktoberfest 2015: Beer price inflation? It’s that time of year again. The Oktoberfest or “Wiesn” (the Bavarian abbreviation for its location, the Theresienwiese) will open its doors to the public on Saturday 19 September for the 182nd time. Its origins date back to the beginning of the 19th century to celebrate the marriage of Bavaria’s Crown Prince Ludwig to Princess Therese of Saxe-Hildburghausen (for more on the history of the Oktoberfest see box in the appendix). Compared to other popular events around the world, the Oktoberfest takes one of the top spots. With the participation of 6.3mn visitors in 2014 (chart 1), it ranges between mega events like the 2012 Summer Olympics in London with 8.2mn visitors and the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil with about 3.4mn visitors. The 2014 carnival in Rio drew around 920,000 visitors. CHART 1: OKTOBERFEST VISITORS 8.0 Visitors (mil) 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Source: City of Munich, UniCredit Research The number of visitors to last year’s Oktoberfest declined by 100,000 from 6.4mn in 2013. This is still below the most recent peak in 2011 with 6.9mn visitors. However, 2011 was a year in which the “Oide Wiesn” took place. The Oide Wiesn opened for the first time in 2010 to celebrate the 200th anniversary of the Oktoberfest and provides visitors with nostalgic beer tents and folk festival attractions. Thereafter, it has been held every year except for 2012 when an agricultural exhibition took place in addition to the Oktoberfest. In 2011 the “Große Wiesn” also took place (an extended version of the Oktoberfest), which is hosted whenever the Day of German Unity, the national holiday on 3 October, falls at the beginning of the week after the two regular Oktoberfest weeks, which will be the case again next year. In the following we will analyze beer price behavior as well as beer supply and Author demand at the Oktoberfest in more detail. Dr. Thomas Strobel, Economist (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378-13013 [email protected] Bloomberg UCGR, UCFR Internet www.research.unicreditgroup.eu UniCredit Research page 1 See last pages for disclaimer. 16 September 2015 Economics & FI/FX Research Economics Special Some Wiesn arithmetic What do you think you can buy for EUR 10? I will tell you. You can book a direct flight from Köln to London with Ryanair, buy a copy of Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner’s bestseller Freakonomics or call a cab from Munich’s Marienplatz to the Theresienwiese. Alternatively, and here it comes, you can buy one Maß (containing one liter) of beer at the world’s largest fair, the Oktoberfest! While last year’s average price of a Maß still remained below EUR 10, it will exceed this threshold in all tents this year. The average price will be EUR 10.2 compared to EUR 9.9 in 2014 (an overview of Wiesn beer prices by tent is provided in the appendix). Compared to last year’s average price per Maß this translates into an inflation rate of about 3.0%. Without getting nostalgic and blaming anybody, in 1985 the price for one Maß was 6.1 deutschmarks, or the equivalent of EUR 3.1. Since then, the beer price at the Wiesn has risen by more than 220%. This compares to just a 69% rise in German consumer prices. Overall, prices at the Oktoberfest stand in stark contrast to the low actual inflation and fears of deflation within the eurozone. This is reflected in the UniCredit Wiesn Visitor Price Index (WVPI) (chart 2). The WVPI is a composite index reflecting the cost of visiting the Wiesn, which is broken down as follows: the price of public transportation (return ticket), consumption of two liters (two Maß) of beer and half of a grilled chicken (Hendl). While last year’s WVPI saw an increase of 2.0%, this year’s increase is 3.6%. This is way above the inflation in the German CPI, which increased by 0.2% yoy in August 2015. Comparably high inflation rates date back to years after the German reunification, with average CPI rates above 4% during 1992 and 1993. Since 1985, the WVPI has shown an average annual increase of 3.9%, which is more than double the rate of annual consumer price inflation, which stands at 1.8% for the same period (chart 2). CHARTS 2: WIESN VISITOR PRICE INDEX (WVPI) AND COMPONENTS 350 400 Transport Price Index (TPI) Consumer Price Index (CPI) 350 300 Beer Price Index (BPI) Wiesn Visitor Price Index (WVPI) Chicken (Hendl) Price Index (HPI) 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Source: City of Munich, Munich public transport authority, Wiesn vendors, UniCredit Research Along with last year’s decline in visitors, beer sales also decreased to 6.5mn liters in 2014. However, as we saw an even stronger decline in beer sales than in the number of visitors, sales per visitor also fell (chart 3). This was the second consecutive fall after 2013, when sales per visitor dropped to the 2006 level. Before 2013, the trend of per-capita consumption had risen steadily since 1995, despite increases in Maß prices. This suggested that beer at the Oktoberfest was a Giffen good, goods that people consume more of as prices increase. There has been a lot of discussion as to whether such goods really exist, until Jensen and Miller1 showed that they actually do. In their 2008 paper the two economists looked at 1 Jensen, R. T. and N. H. Miller (2008),"Giffen Behavior and Subsistence Consumption”, American Economic Review, 98(4), pp. 1553–77 UniCredit Research page 2 See last pages for disclaimer. 16 September 2015 Economics & FI/FX Research Economics Special consumption behavior of poor Chinese households and showed that households consume more rice as prices go up. This is due to the fact that when the price of rice increases, consuming other more expensive substitutes, like meat, to satisfy the daily amount of calories needed is no longer affordable. Households need to stick with rice alone and therefore buy more of it despite the increase in price. In similar ways this behavior applies to beer consumption at the Oktoberfest, particularly as close substitutes available inside the tents are lacking and visitors need to consume the goods provided. However, as sales per visitor have fallen for two consecutive years, the question is whether Oktoberfest beer is beginning to turn into a normal good or whether we are just seeing a transitory correction in beer consumption at the Oktoberfest. CHART 3: BEER SALES AT OKTOBERFEST 8.0 1.2 Beer sales in mn liters 7.0 1.1 Mass beer per visitor (RS) 6.0 1.0 5.0 0.9 4.0 0.8 3.0 0.7 2.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.4 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Source: City of Munich, UniCredit Research Assessing the higher price increases at the Oktoberfest, it needs, however, to be mentioned that there has also been a clearly disproportionate increase in the costs of erecting and operating a Wiesn tent, not least because of the much more stringent security requirements. Furthermore, the competitive situation at the Oktoberfest is completely different compared to that of restaurants and the retail beer trade in Germany. The variety of beers offered in Germany is huge. Across the country, there are more than 1,300 breweries operating, suggesting that German breweries have little pricing power. From a European perspective, with 33.9bn liters of beer produced in 2013, Germany represents about a quarter of total EU beer production. Regarding consumption, 35.0bn liters were consumed in 2013, again roughly one quarter of it in Germany (see chart 4). UniCredit Research page 3 See last pages for disclaimer. 16 September 2015 Economics & FI/FX Research Economics Special CHARTS 4: BEER PRODUCTION AND BEER CONSUMPTION (% OF EU TOTAL) others Germany others Germany 25.5% 24.6% 23.1% 24.5% Czech Republic Romania 4.4% 4.2% UK Romania UK Belgium 10.9% 4.7% 12.1% 4.7% Italy Czech Republic 5.0% France 4.9% Poland Poland Netherlands 5.5% Spain 10.4% Spain 10.7% 6.2% 8.5% 10.0% Source: The Brewers of Europe, UniCredit Research However, this does not hold true for the Oktoberfest, since competition is limited. The regulations for operating a beer tent at the Wiesn state: “The Oktoberfest is the traditional Munich festival with Munich hospitality and Munich beer. The aim is to preserve this tradition. For this reason, visitors to the Wiesn may only be served Munich beer brewed by the efficient and traditional Munich breweries that comply with the Munich Purity promulgated in 1487 and the German Purity promulgated in 1906.” Accordingly, only larger breweries with production facilities located in the City of Munich are allowed to supply tents at the Wiesn to ensure a secure and uninterrupted flow in the beer tents. At the moment, only six breweries meet this standard. One of the interesting questions this year is whether the solid increases in beer prices, as well as the high level of the WVPI, will have an impact on beer sales. The continuous decline in consumption over the last three years suggests that there is further downward pressure on sales in the pipeline.
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