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Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2 January 2009 SAP 4.2: Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Final Report, Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2 U.S. Climate Change Science Program And the Subcommittee on Global Change Research Lead Agency U.S. Geological Survey Contributing Agencies National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Science Foundation U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Environmental Protection Agency SAP 4.2: Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Federal Executive Team Director, Climate Change Science Program William J. Brennan Director, Climate Change Science Program Office Peter A. Schultz Lead Agency Principal Representative to CCSP; Senior Advisor for Global Change Programs, U.S. Geological Survey Thomas R. Armstrong Product Lead, U.S. Geological Survey Colleen W. Charles Synthesis and Assessment Product Advisory Group Chair; Associate Director, EPA National Center for Environmental Assessment Michael W. Slimak Synthesis and Assessment Product Coordinator, Climate Change Science Program Office Fabien J.G. Laurier Editorial and Production Team Layout editor, U.S. Geological Survey Anna Glover Copy editor, U.S. Geological Survey Jeanette Ishee This document, part of the Synthesis and Assessment Products described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Strategic Plan, was prepared in accordance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and theinformation quality act guidelines issued by the Department of the Interior and the U.S. Geological Survey pursuant to Section 15). The CCSP Interagency Committee relies on the Department of the Interior and the U.S. Geological Survey certifications regarding compliance with Section 515 and Department guidelines as the basis for determining that this product conforms with Section 515. For purposes of compliance with Section 515, this CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product is an “interpreted product” as that term is used in U.S. Geological Survey guidelines and is classified as “highly influential”. This document does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or provide recommendations for regulatory action. ii SAP 4.2: Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems January 2009, Members of Congress: On behalf of the National Science and Technology Council, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is pleased to transmit to the President and the Congress this Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems. This is part of a series of 21 SAPs produced by the CCSP aimed at providing current assessments of climate change science to inform public debate, policy, and operational decisions. These reports are also intended to help the CCSP develop future program research priorities. The CCSP’s guiding vision is to provide the Nation and the global community with the science- based knowledge needed to manage the risks and capture the opportunities associated with climate and related environmental changes. The SAPs are important steps toward achieving that vision and help to translate the CCSP’s extensive observational and research database into informational tools that directly address key questions being asked of the research community. This SAP addresses and synthesizes the current state of scientific understanding regarding potential abrupt state changes or regime shifts in ecosystems in response to climate change. It was developed in accordance with the Guidelines for Producing CCSP SAPs, the Information Quality Act (Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554)), and the guidelines issued by the Department of Interior and the U.S. Geological Survey pursuant to Section 515. We commend the report’s authors for both the thorough nature of their work and their adherence to an inclusive review process. Sincerely, Carlos M. Gutierrez Samuel W. Bodman John H. Marburger III Secretary of Commerce Secretary of Energy Director, Office of Science Chair, Committee on Vice Chair, Committee on and Technology Policy Climate Change Science Climate Change Science Executive Director, Committee and Technology Integration and Technology Integration on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration iii SAP 4.2: Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Author Team for this Report Lead Authors: Daniel B. Fagre, USGS; Colleen W. Charles, USGS. Authors: Craig D. Allen, USGS; Charles Birkeland, USGS-University of Hawaii; F. Stuart Chapin, III, University of Alaska; Peter M. Groffman, Institute of Ecosystem Studies; Glenn R. Guntenspergen, USGS; Alan K. Knapp, Colorado State University; A. David McGuire, USGS-University of Alaska; Patrick J. Mulholland, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Debra P.C. Peters, USDA Agricultural Research Service; Daniel D. Roby, USGS-Oregon State University; George Sugihara, Scripps Institute of Oceanography and University of California at San Diego. Contributors: Brandon Bestelmeyer, Jornada Basin LTER; Julio L. Betancourt, USGS; Jeffrey E. Herrick, Jornada Basin LTER Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Federal Advisory Committee An eight-member Federal Advisory Committee oversaw the scientific review and development of this Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) at the request of the U.S. Geological Survey. Linda Joyce, Forest Service Steven McNulty, Forest Service Ronald Neilson, Forest Service Dennis Ojima, John H. Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and theEnvironment David Peterson, Forest Service Franklin Schwing, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries Service John P. Smol, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario Leigh Welling, National Park Service v SAP 4.2: Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Acknowledgments CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2 (SAP 4.2) was developed with the benefit of a scientifically rigorous first draft peer review conducted by a committee appointed under the Federal Advisory Committee Act—Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Federal Advisory Committee (FAC). The resultant review was instrumental in shaping the final version of SAP 4.2 and in improving its completeness, sharpening its focus, and communicating its conclusions and recommendations. We would like to acknowledge Susan Haseltine, Associate Director-Biology USGS, Robert Szaro, Chief Scientist-Biology USGS (retired), Bruce Jones, Chief Scientist- Biology, and Jeffrey Kershner, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center- USGS for the support, encouragement, and accommodation provided in order to carry out this complex task. The authors extend their sincere thanks and appreciation to Fabien Laurier, CCSP, for his patience, guidance, and encouragement all through the development of SAP 4.2. We wish to thank the members of the Review FAC: Linda Joyce, USDA Forest Service; Steven McNulty, USDA Forest Service; Ronald Neilson, USDA Forest Service; Dennis Ojima, The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment; David Peterson, USDA Forest Service; Franklin Schwing, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries Service; John P. Smol, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario; Leigh Welling, National Park Service. We would like to thank Anthony C. Janetos, Joint Global Change Research Institute, for providing guidance and support in developing this document and vi SAP 4.2: Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems encouragement in getting this information out. We also extend appreciation to Patricia Jellison, USGS, for her support in completing SAP4.2. The authors also express deep gratitude to Lindsey Bengtson and Kimberly Dueling, Jeannete Ishee, and Anna Glover, USGS, for their invaluable time and dedication to the production of SAP 4.2. We are also grateful to all the reviewers who provided valuable comments during the public comment period. The author team carefully considered all comments and the subsequent revisions resulted in improving the quality and clarity of this report. vii SAP 4.2: Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems Synopsis As defined in this Synthesis and Assessment Report, ‘an ecological threshold is the point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon, or where small changes in one or more external conditions produce large and persistent responses in an ecosystem’. Ecological thresholds occur when external factors, positive feedbacks, or nonlinear instabilities in a system cause changes to propagate in a domino-like fashion that is potentially irreversible. This report reviews threshold changes in North American ecosystems that are potentially induced by climatic change and addresses the significant challenges these threshold crossings impose on resource and land managers. Sudden changes to ecosystems and the goods and services they provide are not well understood, but they are extremely important if natural resource managers are to succeed in developing adaptation strategies in a changing world. The report provides an overview of what is known about ecological thresholds and where they are likely to occur. It also identifies those areas where research is most needed to improve knowledge and understand the uncertainties regarding them. The report suggests a suite of potential actions that land and resource managers could use to improve the
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