NOVEMBER 2009 Table of contents Transnational terrorism 2 Profi le: Taking on the Taleban 3 Worldwide terrorist activity 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa In-depth 8 Coming up 9 Military spokesman Maj-Gen Athar Abbas addresses a press conference following the Rawalpindi attack PAKISTAN Tehrik-e-Taleban Pakistan (TTP, Pakistani Taleban) on 12 October claimed responsibility for an attack on Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi on 10 October in which around 20 people, including senior army offi cers, were killed. The attack was striking in its audacity and well-planned. The targeting For more information about Hiscox or Control of the military establishment has revived concerns about the safety of senior Risks, please contact: fi gures and sensitive assets, while the fact that the attack took place despite Stephen Ashwell warnings from civilian authorities that it was being planned is discomfi ting. Tel: 020 7448 6725 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX The timing of the attack was signifi cant, coming amid claims by the [email protected] authorities that they were preparing for military offensive in South Waziristan www.hiscox.com aimed at routing groups such as the TTP from tribal safe havens; the subsequent launch of the operation (see inside for further details) brings Peter Simpson with it a heightened risk of retaliatory attacks. Meanwhile, the fact that the Tel: 020 7970 2373 Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, sole perpetrator of the attack to be detained was Punjabi betrays the extent London SE1 2QG to which militancy and radicalisation is not restricted to tribal areas and the [email protected] north-west. There are growing concerns about the grip of extremists in parts www.control-risks.com of Punjab, particularly in the south and in cities such as Lahore, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, though the federal government will seek to play these down. Prepared by for Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach of this will lead to removal from the distribution list. Transnational groups and Islamist extremism SAUDI ARABIA EXTREMIST THREAT Two suspected al-Qaida militants and a police offi cer were killed on 13 October in a gunfi ght at a checkpoint in al- Hamraa, around 75 miles (120km) from the southern city of Jizan and 62 miles (100km) from the border with Yemen. The men, who were reportedly wearing explosive vests, fi red on security personnel after their car was stopped at the checkpoint. The incident followed the announcement in August of the arrests of 44 extremist suspects in previous months and the discovery of an arms cache – including 70 machine guns, ammunition and 300 electronic detonation devices – in the capital Riyadh and central Qassim province. The fact that the men were carrying grenades, automatic weapons and bomb-making materials suggests that they were part of cell planning future attacks rather than carrying out an operation. Extremists belonging to the main regional extremist al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) who are currently based in Yemen are likely to be planning a series of spectacular attacks and in the process The aftermath of an attack on a Riyadh housing complex in of moving cell members and materials into position. The November 2003 security forces are better placed to counter an increased terrorist threat than at the height of the last extremist MAURITANIA BORDER REGIONS campaign in the kingdom in 2003-04, though they remain According to a report by the Agence France Presse news untested in terms of responding to a series of major attacks. agency on 28 September quoting a source in the Mauritanian security services, the military had arrested seven armed men TURKEY ARRESTS on suspicion of belonging to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM), the main Algerian Islamist extremist group, in eastern The security forces on 15 October reportedly detained Mauritania near the border with Mali. The arrests reportedly at least 32 people across eight provinces on suspicion took place near Lemgheity, the scene of a 2005 attack by of links to al-Qaida and plotting attacks against US and QIM (then known as the Salafi st Group for Preaching and Israeli diplomatic missions, as well as NATO facilities in Combat (GSPC)) on a Mauritanian military unity in which Turkey and Germany. Six people convicted in absentia 15 soldiers were killed. Local weekly newspaper Tahalil of involvement in the 2003 bombings in Istanbul were Hebdo on 27 September reported that, in addition to the also detained. Some reports described those arrested arrests, the security forces claimed to have captured QIM as belonging to a group called the Islamic Jihad Union, scouts in the region and that resulting intelligence led which they claimed to be the Turkish branch of al-Qaida, to the discovery of arms caches in eastern border areas. though the group is primarily based in Central Asia. The arrests underline the insecurity of eastern and north- The arrests are unlikely to indicate a major increase in the eastern desert regions, as well as areas bordering Mali. Islamist extremist threat to Turkey. While there have been The country’s eastern deserts are vast and Mauritania’s periodic large-scale arrests of extremists in recent years, borders with Algeria and Mali long and porous, while the signifi cant attacks remain rare. Furthermore, while Islamist resources available to the security forces are limited. extremists detained in Turkey are frequently described as Extremists have carried out three notable attacks in eastern linked to al-Qaida and a number of domestic extremists desert areas since 2005, all against the Mauritanian military, appear to have trained in Afghanistan, there is little evidence while there have also been occasional reports of banditry. to suggest that most domestic extremist networks have signifi cant links to transnational networks. Most appear to be home-grown and to have limited capabilities and little in the way of external fi nancial or logistical support. Prepared by for 2 Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list. Any breach of this will lead to removal from the distribution list. Profi le: Pakistan - Taking on the Taleban MILITARY OFFENSIVE The Pakistani military on 17 October launched an offensive against militants in South Waziristan, reporting one day later that resistance had been lighter than anticipated. The operation had long been expected, coming months after the government fi rst indicated that a military operation in the region was imminent, since when South Waziristan has been subject to blockades and air strikes. The start of military operations was accompanied by a spate of attacks across the country; at least three army offi cers were killed and another was injured on 22 October when two unidentifi ed assailants opened fi re on a military vehicle in Sector G-11 of the capital Islamabad, while two suicide bombers on 20 October attacked the International Islamic University in Islamabad, killing at least four people. The military operation in South Waziristan follows a campaign to clear Swat of militants earlier this year and may have been hastened by the recent humiliating string of attacks on security forces, including the brazen attack on the army headquarters in Rawalpindi on 10 October. SOUTH WAZIRISTAN South Waziristan is the de facto headquarters of the Troops patrol a town on the border of South Waziristan Pakistani Taleban (Tehrik-e-Taleban Pakistan, TTP), OUTLOOK which claimed responsibility for the 10 October attack in Rawalpindi. Along with other tribal areas in the north-west, A crackdown on extremism in recent days has extended it has remained an effective safe haven for extremists, to Karachi, where local authorities on 19 October many of whom are intent on staging armed operations on reported the detention of several people linked to an Pakistani soil. The army will hope to win the support of tribal attempted attack on an oil facility in the city in September. commanders, though any deals (including one reportedly The detainees reportedly included Karachi TTP chieff. already reached with the commander controlling the capital In addition, security forces in Punjab have conducted raids of South Waziristan) will be diffi cult to negotiate and maintain. on religious schools. Sustained crackdowns on extremists, including those operating through questionable groups and MILITANT CAMPAIGN religious schools, will be key to containing the militant threat. The TTP is keen to demonstrate its capabilities following There is a heightened risk of terrorist attacks across Pakistan the killing in August of its founder Baitullah Mehsud in a US as militants retaliate, though their capacity to sustain missile attack and had previously warned the authorities battlefi eld operations and continue perpetrating attacks in to halt military operations in the north-west, threatening urban areas simultaneously is unclear. Authorities will be on retaliatory attacks if an offensive in South Waziristan was high alert, with political and military assets and personnel launched; the authorities on 18 October closed military- most vulnerable to being targeted. Under pressure, the run schools and colleges following a TTP threat to hijack a TTP will fi nd its links to militants elsewhere being tested school bus. The most recent wave of militant operations has included a suicide-bomb attack a police station in Peshawar on 16 October that killed at least 11 people; a series of attacks on security force facilities in Lahore on 15 October, in which at least 38 people were killed; and a car-bomb attack, also on 15 October, targeting the security forces in the town of Kohat (NWFP), in which 11 people were killed. Prepared by for 3 Note: Hiscox Syndicates and Control Risks request that recipients do not forward the contents outside the distribution list.