NOVEMBER 2009 Table of contents

Transnational terrorism 2

Profi le: Taking on the Taleban 3

Worldwide terrorist activity 4 Africa Americas Asia Europe Middle East and North Africa

In-depth 8

Coming up 9

Military spokesman Maj-Gen Athar Abbas addresses a press conference following the Rawalpindi attack

PAKISTAN

Tehrik-e-Taleban Pakistan (TTP, Pakistani Taleban) on 12 October claimed responsibility for an attack on Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi on 10 October in which around 20 people, including senior army offi cers, were killed. The attack was striking in its audacity and well-planned. The targeting For more information about Hiscox or Control of the military establishment has revived concerns about the safety of senior Risks, please contact: fi gures and sensitive assets, while the fact that the attack took place despite Stephen Ashwell warnings from civilian authorities that it was being planned is discomfi ting. Tel: 020 7448 6725 1 Great St Helen’s, London EC3A 6HX The timing of the attack was signifi cant, coming amid claims by the [email protected] authorities that they were preparing for military offensive in South Waziristan www.hiscox.com aimed at routing groups such as the TTP from tribal safe havens; the subsequent launch of the operation (see inside for further details) brings Peter Simpson with it a heightened risk of retaliatory attacks. Meanwhile, the fact that the Tel: 020 7970 2373 Cottons Centre, Cottons Lane, sole perpetrator of the attack to be detained was Punjabi betrays the extent London SE1 2QG to which militancy and radicalisation is not restricted to tribal areas and the [email protected] north-west. There are growing concerns about the grip of extremists in parts www.control-risks.com of Punjab, particularly in the south and in cities such as Lahore, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, though the federal government will seek to play these down.

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SAUDI ARABIA EXTREMIST THREAT

Two suspected al-Qaida militants and a police offi cer were killed on 13 October in a gunfi ght at a checkpoint in al- Hamraa, around 75 miles (120km) from the southern city of Jizan and 62 miles (100km) from the border with Yemen. The men, who were reportedly wearing explosive vests, fi red on security personnel after their car was stopped at the checkpoint. The incident followed the announcement in August of the arrests of 44 extremist suspects in previous months and the discovery of an arms cache – including 70 machine guns, ammunition and 300 electronic detonation devices – in the capital Riyadh and central Qassim province.

The fact that the men were carrying grenades, automatic weapons and bomb-making materials suggests that they were part of cell planning future attacks rather than carrying out an operation. Extremists belonging to the main regional extremist al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) who are currently based in Yemen are likely to be planning a series of spectacular attacks and in the process The aftermath of an attack on a Riyadh housing complex in of moving cell members and materials into position. The November 2003 security forces are better placed to counter an increased terrorist threat than at the height of the last extremist MAURITANIA BORDER REGIONS campaign in the kingdom in 2003-04, though they remain According to a report by the Agence France Presse news untested in terms of responding to a series of major attacks. agency on 28 September quoting a source in the Mauritanian security services, the military had arrested seven armed men TURKEY ARRESTS on suspicion of belonging to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM), the main Algerian Islamist extremist group, in eastern The security forces on 15 October reportedly detained Mauritania near the border with Mali. The arrests reportedly at least 32 people across eight provinces on suspicion took place near Lemgheity, the scene of a 2005 attack by of links to al-Qaida and plotting attacks against US and QIM (then known as the Salafi st Group for Preaching and Israeli diplomatic missions, as well as NATO facilities in Combat (GSPC)) on a Mauritanian military unity in which Turkey and Germany. Six people convicted in absentia 15 soldiers were killed. Local weekly newspaper Tahalil of involvement in the 2003 bombings in Istanbul were Hebdo on 27 September reported that, in addition to the also detained. Some reports described those arrested arrests, the security forces claimed to have captured QIM as belonging to a group called the Islamic Jihad Union, scouts in the region and that resulting intelligence led which they claimed to be the Turkish branch of al-Qaida, to the discovery of arms caches in eastern border areas. though the group is primarily based in Central Asia. The arrests underline the insecurity of eastern and north- The arrests are unlikely to indicate a major increase in the eastern desert regions, as well as areas bordering Mali. Islamist extremist threat to Turkey. While there have been The country’s eastern deserts are vast and Mauritania’s periodic large-scale arrests of extremists in recent years, borders with Algeria and Mali long and porous, while the signifi cant attacks remain rare. Furthermore, while Islamist resources available to the security forces are limited. extremists detained in Turkey are frequently described as Extremists have carried out three notable attacks in eastern linked to al-Qaida and a number of domestic extremists desert areas since 2005, all against the Mauritanian military, appear to have trained in Afghanistan, there is little evidence while there have also been occasional reports of banditry. to suggest that most domestic extremist networks have signifi cant links to transnational networks. Most appear to be home-grown and to have limited capabilities and little in the way of external fi nancial or logistical support.

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MILITARY OFFENSIVE

The Pakistani military on 17 October launched an offensive against militants in South Waziristan, reporting one day later that resistance had been lighter than anticipated. The operation had long been expected, coming months after the government fi rst indicated that a military operation in the region was imminent, since when South Waziristan has been subject to blockades and air strikes. The start of military operations was accompanied by a spate of attacks across the country; at least three army offi cers were killed and another was injured on 22 October when two unidentifi ed assailants opened fi re on a military vehicle in Sector G-11 of the capital Islamabad, while two suicide bombers on 20 October attacked the International Islamic University in Islamabad, killing at least four people. The military operation in South Waziristan follows a campaign to clear Swat of militants earlier this year and may have been hastened by the recent humiliating string of attacks on security forces, including the brazen attack on the army headquarters in Rawalpindi on 10 October.

SOUTH WAZIRISTAN

South Waziristan is the de facto headquarters of the Troops patrol a town on the border of South Waziristan Pakistani Taleban (Tehrik-e-Taleban Pakistan, TTP), OUTLOOK which claimed responsibility for the 10 October attack in Rawalpindi. Along with other tribal areas in the north-west, A crackdown on extremism in recent days has extended it has remained an effective safe haven for extremists, to Karachi, where local authorities on 19 October many of whom are intent on staging armed operations on reported the detention of several people linked to an Pakistani soil. The army will hope to win the support of tribal attempted attack on an oil facility in the city in September. commanders, though any deals (including one reportedly The detainees reportedly included Karachi TTP chieff. already reached with the commander controlling the capital In addition, security forces in Punjab have conducted raids of South Waziristan) will be diffi cult to negotiate and maintain. on religious schools. Sustained crackdowns on extremists, including those operating through questionable groups and MILITANT CAMPAIGN religious schools, will be key to containing the militant threat.

The TTP is keen to demonstrate its capabilities following There is a heightened risk of terrorist attacks across Pakistan the killing in August of its founder Baitullah Mehsud in a US as militants retaliate, though their capacity to sustain missile attack and had previously warned the authorities battlefi eld operations and continue perpetrating attacks in to halt military operations in the north-west, threatening urban areas simultaneously is unclear. Authorities will be on retaliatory attacks if an offensive in South Waziristan was high alert, with political and military assets and personnel launched; the authorities on 18 October closed military- most vulnerable to being targeted. Under pressure, the run schools and colleges following a TTP threat to hijack a TTP will fi nd its links to militants elsewhere being tested school bus. The most recent wave of militant operations has included a suicide-bomb attack a police station in Peshawar on 16 October that killed at least 11 people; a series of attacks on security force facilities in Lahore on 15 October, in which at least 38 people were killed; and a car-bomb attack, also on 15 October, targeting the security forces in the town of Kohat (NWFP), in which 11 people were killed.

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AFRICA

Guinea: Security forces on 28 September opened fi re at an opposition rally in the capital Conakry, killing at least 157 people. Demonstrators had gathered following reports that the leader of the ruling National Council for Democracy and Development military junta was about to announce his intention to stand for the presidency.

Senegal: Suspected members of the separatist Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance on 2 October reportedly killed at least six soldiers in the southern Casamance region near the border with Guinea-Bissau.

Somalia: At least 25 people were killed on 22 October in clashes between Islamist insurgents and government forces in the capital Mogadishu. Separately, at least 12 people were reportedly killed on 21 October in clashes between Islamist insurgent groups north-west of the southern port of Kismayo.

Niger: Leader of the ethnic-Tuareg rebel Front of Restoration Forces Rhissa Ag Boula on 10 October rejected the latest peace deal and pledged to continue the group’s armed struggle. Libyan leader Col Muammar Gaddafi on 7 October claimed to have brokered a comprehensive peace agreement with Tuareg rebel leaders from Niger and Mali. Terrorism Other political violence Warnings/arrest

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Colombia: Suspected members of the leftist guerrilla Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) on 18 October killed two local politicians and abducted three other people in the southern, rural Sumapaz district of the capital Bogotá. The kidnap victims were subsequently released.

Honduras: Rallies by supporters of ousted president Manuel Zelaya and counter-demonstrations by supporters of interim president Roberto Michelleti were staged almost daily in the capital Tegucigalpa following Zelaya’s return to the country on 21 September.

Paraguay: Two police offi cers of the local commissary of Paso Barreto (Concepción department) were seriously injured on 16 October when a bomb exploded in a vehicle that they were inspecting. The vehicle was owned by a cattle- rancher who had been kidnapped hours earlier by radical organisation the Army of the Paraguayan People (EPP).

Peru: One soldier was killed and another injured on 12 October when suspected Shining Path (SL) guerrillas attacked a military base in the Vizcatán area in the valley of the Apurímac and Ene rivers (VRAE).

ASIA India: Two members of the Hindu extremist Sanathan Sanstha (SS) group were killed on 16 October when an improvised explosive device (IED) that they were carrying exploded in the South Goa district of Goa state. At least three other IEDs were defused nearby.

Pakistan: At least ten people on 23 October were injured in a car-bomb attack outside the Swan restaurant in the Hayatabad residential area of south-western Peshawar (North West Frontier Province (NWFP)). The explosion damaged the restaurant, which is owned by the son of the head of NWFP’s ruling Awami National Party, Asfandyar Wali.

Philippines: Suspected members of the Abu Sayyaf Islamist militant group on 5 October carried out a bomb attack on a bridge in the south-western town of Indanan (Jolo island, Sulu archipelago). Earlier the same day, a roadside explosion occurred in Lanao del Norte province (Mindanao island).

Thailand: At least two people were killed and 12 others Afghanistan: A car bomb detonated near the interior were injured on 6 October when unidentifi ed gunmen on ministry and the Indian embassy in Kabul on 8 October, motorcycles threw a grenade at and opened fi re on two killing at least 12 people. The attack refl ected other restaurants in the border town of Sungai Kolok, in the southern incidents in the capital in the preceding weeks, including province of Narathiwat. More than 23 people were injured in an attack on the NATO International Security Assistance a subsequent car-bomb explosion outside a hotel in the town. Force (ISAF) headquarters in August and an attack in September on ISAF troops travelling along the Airport Road.

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France: The authorities on 12 October placed Adlène Hicheur, a research scientist from the Switzerland-based European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) laboratory, under formal investigation for criminal association with a terrorist enterprise. The police had arrested Hicheur, a French national of Algerian origin, in Vienne, 400km (250 miles) south-east of Paris, on 8 October on suspicion of links to al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM).

In an unrelated incident, a small home-made bomb detonated on 27 September at a bank branch in Ciboure (Pyrénées-Atlantique department), six miles (10km) from the border with Spain. The attack did not cause any injuries and the bank suffered only superfi cial damage. Basque nationalist group Irrintzi was likely to have been responsible.

Germany: The authorities on 1 October arrested a 24- year-old man with dual German and Turkish citizenship in Frankfurt on suspicion of possessing bomb-making • 16 Oct: A woman sustained minor injuries after a bomb materials and attempting to recruit for al-Qaida. A exploded under her car in the eastern Kingsdale Park search of the man’s apartment in the city of Offenbach area of Belfast, the capital of Northern Ireland. The and an offi ce in Frankfurt yielded a small amount of injured woman was the partner of a police offi cer, potentially explosive compound and a home-made who may have been the intended target of the attack. electronic device that could be used as a detonator. • 14 Oct: Police arrested two people in connection with Georgia: The commander of the Russian border guard a hoax bomb alert in the village of Clady (County unit deployed in the separatist region of Abkhazia on Tyrone), close to the border with Ireland. An anonymous 27 September announced that Russia would send telephone call had been made warning that a 600lb- additional vessels to defend Abkhazia’s maritime bomb had been left in a vehicle abandoned on a bridge border from a base in the Abkhaz port of Ochamchire. in the village. Police subsequently sealed off the area and carried out a controlled explosion on the vehicle. Italy: Police on 13 October arrested an Egyptian and a Libyan national on suspicion of involvement in an attack • 9 Oct: Four masked, armed men told a taxi driver in against an army barracks in the northern city of Milan the the town of Strabane (County Tyrone) that they had preceding day by another Libyan national, Mohammed placed a bomb in his car and ordered him to drive to the Game. Police also discovered more than 220lbs (100kg) town’s courthouse. The device placed in the taxi was of explosives at a house near Game’s residence. later inspected and the incident was declared a hoax. On the same evening, attackers threw a petrol bomb Russia: The security forces on 1 October killed at least at police offi cers in the same town; no-one was injured. eight suspected militants during an operation in the south- western district of Nozhai-Yurt in the republic of Chechnya. Tajikistan: Four suspected members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) were killed and a police Spain: Police in the Basque city of San Sebastián offi cer was injured on 18 October during a raid by the on 13 October arrested ten people suspected of security forces on the group’s hide-out in the northern forming the governing council of banned Basque town of Isfara (Sughd province). Although one militant separatist party Batasuna. Those arrested include was arrested, several others managed to escape. The Arnaldo Otegi, the long-time spokesman for Batasuna. militants were reportedly wanted in connection with the killing of a senior police offi cial in Isfara in September. United Kingdom: Several violent incidents thought to be connected to dissident republican (Irish nationalist) paramilitary activity continued in Northern Ireland in October:

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Algeria: Security offi cials on 19 October announced that Mourad Louzai, a commander within al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (QIM), had been killed during a military operation near the city of el-Bayadh (el-Bayadh province), 240 miles (386km) south-west of the capital Algiers. The operation reportedly took place on 7 October.

Iran: A suicide bomb attack targeting senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in south- eastern Sistan-e Bakuchistan province on 18 October reportedly killed at least 42 people. Sunni Baluchi militant group Jundallah claimed responsibility for the attack.

Iraq: Two people were killed and four people were injured in the northern city of Mosul (Nineveh province) on 5 October in a series of explosions and clashes. Thirty members of the Kurdish security forces were also reportedly injured in a bomb attack north-west of the city.

Turkey: Eight alleged members of the Kurdish-linked Separately, Laith Mishaan, a local leader of the anti- leftist ‘Revolutionary Headquarters’ group were reportedly insurgent Awakening movement, was killed on 13 October arrested on 3 October on suspicion of plotting terrorist in a suicide bomb attack in the town of Buhriz (Diyala attacks in Istanbul and other cities. On the same day, the province). The incident came four days after two bomb Maoist Communist Party claimed responsibility for the attacks had targeted a national reconciliation meeting assassination on 28 September of a retired colonel in Bursa. in Ramadi, the main city of western Anbar province, killing 23 people and injuring more than 60 others. Yemen: Clashes between the security forces and supporters of an opposition leader were reported on 28 September in Lebanon: At least eight people were injured on 7 October the southern town of Zinjibar (Abyan province). The clashes in rocket-propelled grenade attacks in the districts of were believed to have involved supporters of Tariq al-Fadlhi, Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen in Tripoli, around 43 a former government ally who has since joined the pro- miles (70km) north-east of the capital Beirut. Unidentifi ed southern independence Southern Mobility Movement (SMM). assailants threw grenades at a café in Jabal Mohsen, while a similar attack occurred near a mosque in Bab al-Tabbaneh. In a related development, thousands of protesters on 14 October staged a demonstration in al-Hablain in the Saudi Arabia: The British embassy on 20 October southern province of Lahj to mark the anniversary of an issued a warden notice reminding British nationals of uprising against British colonial rule in 1963. Protesters the continued risk posed by terrorism in the kingdom. chanted anti-government slogans and denounced the The message followed the killing of two suspected al- authorities for the alleged neglect of southern provinces. Qaida militants on 13 October in a clash with the security Similar protests occurred in the southern port city of Aden. forces and the attempted assassination of deputy interior minister Prince Muhammad bin Nayef in August. The interior ministry on 20 October announced that 257 terror suspects were arrested in the fi rst half of 2009. Sudan: Sixteen people were reportedly killed on 2 According to the authorities, the arrests were connected October in clashes between factions of the Sudan to 142 terrorism-related incidents throughout the country. People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in Bentiu, the capital of southern Unity state. Meanwhile, at least 30 people were killed in several days of fi ghting in early October between the Mundari and Dinka Bor tribes in Jonglei and Bahr el Jebel states, according to unconfi rmed reports.

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CHINA

A court in Urumqi, the regional capital of Xinjiang, on 15 October sentenced six people to death for their role in ethnic riots in July in which around 200 people were killed in the city. A total of 12 people were sentenced to death and several others handed prison terms. More trials are expected, mostly apparently members of the ethnic-Uighur minority (Muslim, Turkic-speaking), which is concentrated in Xinjiang.

July’s violence was primarily characterised by violent attacks on Han (China’s main ethnic group) civilians by Uighur rioters, and prompted an angry backlash from Han Chinese, who blamed the government for failing to prevent the killings. The issue has placed severe pressure on both local and central government leaders up to the highest levels, who are seeking to draw a line under recent unrest. Leaders will hope that trials and sentencing will show tough justice being done, reassure Xinjiang’s Han population (especially in Urumqi) and placate public opinion An armed police offi cer stands in front of an armoured vehicle nationwide. This is refl ected in the prominent coverage in Urumqi following riots in the city in July. of the issue in local Chinese-language media. However, authorities in Xinjiang now face an intensifi ed, long-term ALGERIA dilemma as they must appease Han demands for security A number of small-scale attacks and other terrorism-related without provoking another outpouring of Uighur discontent. incidents occurred in October outside extremist groups’ main areas of activity. Ten suspected extremists and three NIGERIA soldiers were killed on 9 October when the security forces attacked a convoy transporting weapons in Bechar province The leader of the main ethnic-Ijaw militant Movement for (south-western Algeria), while the security forces on 4 the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), Henry Okah, October killed four suspected extremists in Hassi Fedoul on 19 October met President Umaru Yaradua for the fi rst (northern Djelfa province, on the border with Tiaret province) time since Okah was released from detention in June as after following them from their hideout in Tissemsilt province. part of the government’s amnesty deal. However, while the fresh talks point to a potential rapprochement between the Despite occasional attacks outside extremist cells’ traditional government and MEND, which has previously refused to strongholds in certain mountainous areas of northern accept the government amnesty and promised to resume (mostly north-eastern) Algeria, the geographical distribution attacks against oil installations, MEND is tactically astute of extremist activity has changed little over the past three and likely to remain defi ant in the near term, despite publicly years and is unlikely to alter signifi cantly in the medium declaring its optimism with regard to the current dialogue. term. Over the past year, the security forces have foiled efforts by extremist cells to establish a new presence in The amnesty programme represents a signifi cant the cities of Oran and Annaba. The vast majority of attacks achievement for a government that previously denounced occur in areas where extremist groups have a known militant groups as criminals, and the surrender of a presence, refl ecting the reliance of extremist cells on local number of key militant leaders is notable. Nevertheless, support networks and the cover offered by mountainous and the complex interplay of militancy and criminality in the forested terrain, as well as their overall reluctance to incur Niger delta means that a resolution is unlikely to be risks by attacking strategic targets outside their strongholds. imminent. Despite the short-term success of the amnesty, the government is yet to offer a comprehensive long- term solution. It also still has to address the militants’ key demand of resource control and make concrete provisions for the social and economic development of the region.

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NEWS AND EVENTS

These are some of the events that Control Risks is involved with or organising in the coming months:

28 Oct: ‘Preventing and Managing Corruption’; workshop (New York)

17 Nov: ‘Annual Seminar 2009’; Control Risks’ 18th annual seminar (Washington DC)

1 Dec: Control Risks ‘RiskMap 2010’; breakfast/morning briefi ng (Paris)

COUNTRIES TO WATCH

Honduras: Political tensions are likely to remain high following the return to the country of ousted president Manuel Zelaya.

Lebanon: Further border incidents are likely in the south of the country amid continued manoeuvring by Hizbullah and Israel.

Nigeria: The militant threat to oil-industry operators in the Niger delta appears set to persist following the end of the MEND’s unilateral ceasefi re.

Pakistan: Further militant attacks remain possible following the launch of a military offensive in South Waziristan.

KEY DATES

7 Nov – Afghanistan: Second round of presidential election; heightened risk of insurgent attacks will persist throughout election cycle. Control Risks Group Limited (‘the Company’) endeavours to ensure the accuracy of all information supplied. Advice and opinions 9 Nov – Germany: Anniversary of fall of Berlin Wall, Nazi destruction of given represent the best judgement of the synagogues (1938); clashes likely between left-//right-wing groups. Company but, subject to section 2 (1) Unfair Contract Terms Act 1977, the Company shall in no case be liable for any claims, or special, 10 Nov – Nigeria: Anniversary of execution of Ken Saro-Wiwa; protests incidental or consequential damages, whether possible in Ogoni areas of Niger delta. caused by the Company’s negligence (or that of any member of its staff) or in any other way. Copyright: © Control Risks Group Limited 2009. All 17 Nov – Greece: Anniversary of student uprising in Athens: leftist march in rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part capital may prompt clashes between students, police. prohibited without the prior consent of the Company.

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