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Central Asia Central Asia Water & Energy Program Working for Energy and Water Security Development Aspirations of Central Asia THE WORLD BANK THE WORLD BANK Central Asia is a dynamic and geographically diverse scarcity of water resources have strained relations region enjoying steady economic growth and new among the countries of the region. Climate change development opportunities. A key element in the and population growth have the potential to strain continued growth, prosperity, stability, and well-being resources and relations further. of the population is the smart management of the region’s energy and water resources. The Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP) recognizes that strengthened water and energy Although Central Asia is increasingly globalized, resources management at the national and regional national aspirations, such as food security and reliable levels can lead to increased incomes, poverty reduction, energy services, still drive development decisions. The sustainable development, shared prosperity, and climate competition for energy markets and the anticipated resilience across the region. THE WORLD BANK 2 The Benefits of Smart Management of Natural Resources Central Asia is endowed with water and varied Change of Water Availability in Central Asia energy resources—fossil fuels: oil, gas, and coal, Categories of water availability and even more abundant renewables: hydro- thousand m3/capita/year >1.7 significant 10 1.0-1.7 not significant power, wind and solar. These resources can support 9 8.4 <1.0 shortage 8 increased agricultural production and have the 7 5.9 Central Asia 6 Europe potential to exceed domestic energy demand to 5 4.2 4 supply export markets. 3 2.55 2 1 years However, water and energy resources are unevenly 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 distributed across the region and access varies. In some cases there is a lack of physical infrastructure Over the past 40 years, water supply in Central Asia declined from 8.4 th. m3/person/year to 2.5 th. m3/person/year. By 2030, at the current and the outdated systems that exist are unreliable rate of population growth in Central Asia, this reduction will reach a 3 and inefficient. Some communities cannot meet critical value of less than 1.7 th. m /year. And it is still necessary to an- nually provide an additional 500-700 million m3 of water to sustain the citizens’ electricity needs during certain times of the population of Central Asia even at very low levels of consumption. year, while others lack adequate water supply. Source: EC IFAS Total Fossil Fuel MTOE Working at the national and regional levels Coal MTOE KAZAKHSTAN Crude Oil MTOE 22,629 Gas MTOE 16,000 to manage water and energy resources 4,080 Hydro MTOE 2,549 can bring: MTOE=million tons of oil equivalent 58 • Reliable energy supply and reduced winter energy shortages KYRGYZ REPUBLIC 590 • Higher earnings generated by exporting 5 580 and trading energy UZBEKISTAN 5 4,589 266 • Greater agricultural productivity through 2,851 80 1,657 more reliable access to water 32 • Improved water quality and reduced land CHINA degradation TAJIKISTAN 514 • Better adaptation to climate change and 507 2 water/hydrological variability 5 TURKMENISTAN 412 2,698 • Cost-effective infrastructure development 82 68 • Enhanced environment for international 2,549 4 and private investment for both water AFGHANISTAN and energy Source: Energy Supply/Demand balances and Infrastructure Constraints in Central Asia. Asian Development Bank. 2009 3 Water Melting snow from high mountain peaks and precipita- tion provide the seasonal flows to the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea Basin: the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The origins of the Syr Darya are the snow-covered slopes of the Tien Shan Mountains in Kyrgyz Republic. The Amu Darya originates from the glaciated northern slopes of the Hindu Kush and from Wakhan in the Pamir Highlands in Afghanistan and the Pamirs in Tajikistan. 4 Water Resources in Central Asia Water is a vital resource across the region. Both the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya river systems have the potential to provide abundant low-carbon hydropow- er. At the same time, these and other rivers are vital arteries for livelihoods—providing water for agricul- ture and local fisheries, and sustaining environmental ecosystems, human health, and electricity generation across Central Asia. However, the water sector faces many challenges: 50 percent of irrigated lands are affected by salinization and waterlogging as a result of poor irrigation and drainage systems. In Turkmenistan that number is 96 percent, compromising both agricultural productivity and water quality. Improvements to Increase Efficiency National governments are struggling to rehabilitate THE WORLD BANK aging irrigation and drainage infrastructure and implement innovative irrigation technologies to ad- dress these problems and improve food security and resilience to hydrologic variability. Looking ahead, population growth and the need for increased agri- utes 11 percent to these economies’ GDP. Proposed cultural production will continue to strain the region’s improvements in irrigation efficiency could begin to water resources, making smart water management alleviate the problem. For example, in Uzbekistan, a both nationally and regionally a key factor for the 1 percent increase in water pumping efficiency would livelihoods of farmers and agriculture. Across Kazakh- result in savings of $10 million per year; and a 10 stan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, over 10 million percent increase in water pumping efficiency would hectares of agricultural land depend on these waters result in regional savings of $188 million per year. for irrigation, where agriculture on average contrib- Photo to the left and cover © Daniel Korzhonov, Moscow, Russia. 5 Aralsk Lake Balkhash Northern Aral Sea (38) 5 Population (millions) 18 Ili GNI per capita (US$) $7,970 K A Z A K H S T A N GDP (billions US$) $162.9 Southern % rural population w/access to an 86% Aral Sea improved water source (2010) seasonal lake Kazakhstan Land area (1,000 sq. km) 2,725 A r a l K u m Muynak KAZ 10 S Population (millions) 6.2 yr Da GNI per capita (US$) $1,130 r Karakalpakstan 7.9 ya Bishkek Ysik-Kol GDP (billions US$) $7.6 1 % rural population w/access to an 82% Sarygamysh Planned collector Lake K K Y R G Y Z R E P. improved water source (2010) a r a Chirchik- Kyrgyz Republic Land area (1,000 sq. km) 192 B Naryn o Charvak g a z G Ahangaran o Dashoguz 6.5 15 l Tashkent Horezm 4.4 U Z B E K I S T A N 9 UZB 10 KYR 3 Golden Age Lake Population (millions) 8.9 (under construction) (UZB) (37) GNI per capita (US$) $990 Dashoguz Collector 4 Kara Darya UZB 5.3 Aydar Lake TJK 2 (under construction) 1 GDP (billions US$) $7.1 Lebap 3.9 2 Rivers of Ferghana Valley: 8 % rural population w/access to an 64% UZB 10 Tajikistan improved water source (2010) Za T U R K M E N I S T A N rafs Land area (1,000 sq. km) 141 ha KYR 0.1 n C H I N A Great Turkmen Collector Amu-Bukhara 5.2 Kashkadarya Kafarnigan (under construction) 5.3 0.3 TJK 6.6 1.2 Vakhsh Population (millions) 5.8 Dushanbe T A J I K I S T A N GNI per capita (US$) $6,380 Surhandarya Karshi 4.19 0.6 Panj GDP (billions US$) $37.9 Ashgabat UZB 1.5 Sherabad 1.4 % rural population w/access to an 54% 1.5 Amu Darya improved water source (2010) 0.5 0.2 4 20.2 Turkmenistan Land area (1,000 sq. km) 488 0.9 5.6 Karakum Canal 11 M u 33.3 r g a b Kokcha Average river flow and water intake by canals 3 Population (millions) 32.4 T (km /year) e Rivers of Northern j e Prospective expansion GNI per capita (US$) $2,000 n Afghanistan: 6.1 of irrigation 70 Water discharge GDP (billions US$) $49.7 30 (km3/year) % rural population w/access to an 81% I.R. OF 10 A F G H A N I S T A N 5 Uzbekistan improved water source (2010) IRAN Land area (1,000 sq. km) 447 Kunduz Mountain regions above 2000 metres Kabul Irrigated lands i Rud Source: World Bank 2017 Har 0 250 500 750 1000 km 6 © Zoï Environment Network Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net ab en s h u C d In WATER RESOURCES OF THE ARAL SEA BASIN Aralsk Lake Balkhash Northern Aral Sea (38) 5 Ili K A Z A K H S T A N Southern Aral Sea seasonal lake A r a l K u m Muynak KAZ 10 S y r Da r Karakalpakstan 7.9 ya Bishkek Ysik-Kol 1 Sarygamysh Planned collector Lake K K Y R G Y Z R E P. a r a Chirchik- B Naryn o Charvak g a z G Ahangaran o Dashoguz 6.5 15 l Tashkent Horezm 4.4 U Z B E K I S T A N 9 UZB 10 KYR 3 Golden Age Lake (under construction) (UZB) (37) Dashoguz Collector 4 Kara Darya UZB 5.3 Aydar Lake TJK 2 (under construction) 1 Lebap 3.9 2 Rivers of Ferghana Valley: 8 UZB 10 Za T U R K M E N I S T A N rafs ha KYR 0.1 n C H I N A Great Turkmen Collector Amu-Bukhara 5.2 Kashkadarya Kafarnigan (under construction) 5.3 0.3 TJK 6.6 1.2 Vakhsh Dushanbe T A J I K I S T A N Surhandarya Karshi 4.19 Ashgabat UZB 0.6 1.5 Panj Sherabad 1.4 1.5 Amu Darya 0.5 0.2 4 20.2 0.9 5.6 Karakum Canal 11 M u 33.3 r g a b Kokcha Average river flow and water intake by canals 3 T (km /year) e Rivers of Northern j e Prospective expansion n Afghanistan: 6.1 of irrigation 70 Water discharge 30 (km3/year) I.R.
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