Pdf/Pesticides En.Pdf

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List of Figures

Figures for the Introduction ix 1 Some measures of the “size” of humanity (from [308]). Source: From [308]. Reprinted with permission...... x 2 The “blue marble.” Source: NASA. Public domain. http://tinyurl.com/y6vmy47o ...... xi 3 Marine rescue operation in Galveston, Texas, following Hurricane Harvey, August 31, 2017. Source: Sgt. Ian Ferro. Public domain. Marine Corp Photo 170831-M-TI204-002.JPG. http://tinyurl.com/ycsxqhb9 .... xii 4 Sustainability and limits. Redrawn from [65]. Source: From [65]. Redrawn with permission...... xiii 5 Pope Francis has said: “These ancient stories...bear witness to a conviction which we today share: that everything is interconnected, and that genuine care for our own lives and our relationships to nature is inseparable from . . . justice and faithfulness to others” [123]. Source: a katz/Shutterstock. Standard license. Stock photo ID: 320559005...... xvi

Figures for Chapter 1 3 1 Measuring instruments. Source: pio3/Shutterstock. Standard license. Stock vector ID: 80904334...... 3 2 Boeing 747 at takeoff. Source: Adrian Pingstone/Wikimedia Commons. Oct 21, 2007. Public domain. http: //tinyurl.com/y9d3x75a ...... 5 3 Illustrating the formation of units of area. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 9 4 Illustrating the formation of units of volume. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 11 5 Celsius and Fahrenheit comparison. Source: Gringer/Wikipedia. Public domain. http://tinyurl.com/gku4uqd 14 6 A grown elephant can weigh 4 tons. Source: Ikiwaner/Wikipedia. GNU Free Documentation License version 1.2. http://tinyurl.com/y9xc3azr ...... 18 7 All the water on Earth would ﬁt into a “raindrop” 430 miles in radius. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Photo of Earth from NASA. Public domain. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/resources/blogs/ earthday_day_lrg.jpg. Image of water texture. Public domain...... 20 8 Standing by the Sun on the Sagan Planet Walk. Source: Author photo...... 21 9 A smart phone calculator app. Turning the phone on its side changes the display and the set of buttons available. Source: Screen captures by author...... 31 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 491 J. Roe et al., Mathematics for Sustainability, Texts for Quantitative Critical Thinking, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76660-7 492 List of Figures

10 A smart phone calculator app. To enter numbers in scientiﬁc notation, use the E button. Results can be displayed in the usual way (“FIXED” mode, shown on the left) or using scientiﬁc notation by choosing the “FLOAT” mode (center and right). Source: Screen captures by author...... 32 11 Dinosaur skeleton. Source: Davide Costanzo/Flickr. Nov 11, 2011. Creative Commons license (CC BY 2.0). http://tinyurl.com/y97zsbqs ...... 33 12 Planes at San Francisco Airport. Source: Erik Pesik/Flickr. Jun 29, 2007. Creative Commons license (CC BY 2.0). http://tinyurl.com/y77e7vsy ...... 40 13 Fireworks. Source: TMAB2003/Flickr. June 27, 2009. Creative Commons license (CC BY-ND 2.0). http:// tinyurl.com/ycy54gva ...... 45 14 Ocean currents and garbage. Source: Greenpeace [167]. 2012. Reprinted with Permission...... 46 15 Bar chart representation of the data in Table 11 on page 47 on U.S. peak generating capacity from various sources (gigawatts). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data Source: Table /vrefCD1 ...... 49 16 Pie chart representation of the data in Table 11 on page 47 on U.S. peak generating capacity from various sources (gigawatts). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data Source: Table 11 on page 47 ...... 49 17 Scatter plot of data from Table 12 on page 47 on U.S. natural gas production (billions of cubic feet per quarter). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from Table 12 on page 47 ...... 50 18 The Keeling curve, which shows atmospheric CO2 concentrations in parts per million by volume (ppmv). Source: NOAA/Wikimedia Commons. May 12, 2013. Creative Commons license (CC BY-SA 3.0).http://tinyurl. com/y9vsxaxy ...... 50 19 Scatter plot of the data from Table 12 on page 47 on U.S. natural gas production (billions of cubic feet per quarter). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from Table 12 on page 47 ...... 51 20 Obama administration (2015) graphic of high school graduation rates. Source: White House tweet [245]...... 52 21 Senate Budget Committee (2012) graphic of welfare rolls. Source: Senate budget committee graphic [294]. Accessed via [149]...... 52 22 Body temperature plot. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 52 23 Body temperature plot starting at zero. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 52 24 Prevalence of West Nile virus. Avoid the use of three-dimensional charts. Source: From [319]. Original source unknown ...... 53 25 U.S. annual energy consumption by fuel source as a percentage of total (2016). Avoid using 3-dimensional charts. Source: Produced by the author using TIKZ. Data source: [191] TIKZ ...... 54 26 Average temperatures in PA plotted against time. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 54 27 Global monthly mean temp anomaly1997–2014, data from [119]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data Source: [119] ...... 55 28 Sen. J. Inhofe carries a snowball into the Senate to “refute” global warming. Source: Wikimedia Commons. Public Domain. Uploaded April 28, 2017. http://tinyurl.com/yan47y2w ...... 55 29 Global monthly mean temp anomaly 1880–2016, data from NASA [119]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data Source:[119] ...... 56 30 Five-pronged industrial AC plug. Source: ER 09/Shutterstock. Standard License. Stock photo ID: 63751945. . . 60

Figures for Chapter 2 67 1 Heraclitus, painting by Johannes Moreelse. Source: Wikipedia. Public domain. http://tinyurl.com/y8layo4b 67 2 A bathtub is a standard example of a stock-flow system. Source: Erica Nicol/Flickr. Sept 25, 2006. Creative Commons license (CC-BY-SA 2.0). http://tinyurl.com/ybl7xvzn ...... 70 3 System diagram for the bathtub. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 70 4 Stock-flow system for a primary cell, such as an AA battery. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 71 5 The Earth’s carbon cycle from [271]. The white numbers in the figure refer to stock levels, measured in gigatons (billions of tons) of carbon. The yellow numbers refer to natural flows, in billions of tons of carbon per year. The red numbers refer to human-caused flows, or human-caused changes to the natural flows. Source: NASA Earth Observatory [271]. Public Domain...... 72 6 Simple stock-flow model of radon concentration in a home. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 75 7 A student ready to graduate. “Residence time” in college is the average length of time from matriculation to graduation. Source: Courtesy of R. Hoellman ...... 75 8 A globe. Source: Wendy Cope/Flickr. Aug 15, 2015. Creative Commons license (CC BY 2.0). http:// tinyurl.com/nxjn2k8 ...... 77 9 The Wason four-card task. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 78 10 Rowing machine. Image courtesy of Concept 2. Source: Concept 2. Reprinted with permission. http://www. concept2.com/ ...... 81 11 Energy stock-flow diagram for athlete and rowing machine. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 82 List of Figures 493

12 Rappel device. Source: Roylindman/Wikipedia. May 17, 2011. Creative Commons License (CC BY-SA 3.0) http://tinyurl.com/yayg6nqt ...... 84 13 The Hoover Dam (Ansel Adams photo). Source: [4] ...... 87 14 Perpetual Motion by Norman Rockwell. Source: Wikimedia Commons. Public domain. http://tinyurl.com/ y73c4g7u ...... 88 15 Nuclear thermoelectric power system for Mars rover. Source: Idaho National Laboratory/Flickr. Feb. 7, 2009. Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0) http://tinyurl.com/yc8m4kxd ...... 89 16 Cooling towers. Source: zootalures/Wikimedia Commons. May 22, 2004. Creative Commons License (CC BY- SA 3.0). http://tinyurl.com/y96aeykj ...... 92 17 Incandescent bulb. Source: James Bowe/Flickr. Mar. 8, 2009. Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0) http: //tinyurl.com/ze4ypqn ...... 92 18 Energy flows in the U.S. in 2016. Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [191] ...... 93 19 Stock-flow model of the bathtub example. The thick blue arrows denote flows. The red control arrow indicates a relationship between the water level and the outflow through the drain. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . 96 20 Equilibrium for the bathtub model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 96 21 Lakeside factory. Source: ttarasuik/Flickr. Nov. 20, 2009. Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0). http:// tinyurl.com/ybhdotgh ...... 97 22 Energy consumption in U.S. homes by end use (2009). Source: Data from EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey [5]...... 99 23 Thermographic image, showing heat loss through uninsulated walls. Source: Ivan Smuk/Shutterstock. Standard License. Stock photo ID: 543798988 ...... 99 24 Stock-flow diagram for a model of home heating. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 100 25 Furnace rating plate. Source: Author photograph ...... 101 26 Stock-flow diagram with outside temperature as a parameter. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 103 27 Two-box model for hemispheric ethane flow, after Harte [156]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . . . . . 103 28 Stock-flow diagram for two-layer insulating sandwich. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 104 29 The naked planet model. Notice that the wavelength of the incoming radiation is governed by the surface temperature of the Sun (relatively high, hence short wavelength), whereas the wavelength of the outgoing radiation is governed by the surface temperature of the Earth (relatively low, hence long wavelength). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 110 30 The naked planet model as a stock-flow system. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 112 31 Equilibrium in the naked planet model occurs at about 255 K. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 113 32 A greenhouse. Source: Lilla Frerichs/PublicDomainPictures.com. Public Domain. http://tinyurl.com/ yczp2zbp, created by Lilla Frerichs ...... 113 33 Svante Arrhenius. Source: Wikimedia Commons. Public Domain. http://tinyurl.com/y8d2alqv ...... 114 34 The “glass ball” greenhouse model as a stock-flow system. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 115 35 Stock-flow climate model with variable greenhouse effect. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 116 36 Figure for Exercise 47 on page 121. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 122

Figures for Chapter 3 127 1 A network. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 127 2 Two representations of the same network. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 130 3 One author’s Facebook neighborhood. Source: Author ...... 131 4 Two paths from A to E in the network of Figure 1 on page 127. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . . . . . 131 5 A network with several components, colored differently. Blue might be considered a “giant component.” Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 132 6 Indian vulture. Source: Goran Eckstrom, from [141]. Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0) ...... 133 7 Predation links in the Indian vulture crisis. The solid arrows show direct predation; the dashed arrow represents the effect of dogs on humans via the transmission of rabies. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 133 8 Aftermath of Smokey Spur ﬁre, Wisconsin. Source: Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources/Flickr. Aug. 4, 2012. Creative Commons License (CC BY-ND 2.0) http://tinyurl.com/yc39e87q ...... 134 9 Figure 1 on page 127, redrawn. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 135 10 Weak ties link different clusters in a network. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 136 11 Explanation of the three components of the resilience measure β: from Gao et al. [126]. Source: [126]. Reprinted with permission...... 138 12 Vaccination. Source: Daniel Paquet/Flickr. Oct. 22, 2010. Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0)...... 141 13 The bystander effect. Source: Wikimedia Commons. Creative Commons License (CC BY-SA 3.0) http:// tinyurl.com/ydflbmys ...... 144 14 The bystander effect. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ...... 144 15 Restructuring the social network by appealing to a speciﬁc bystander. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . . 145 494 List of Figures

16 Percentage agreeing with “The Earth is growing warmer, mostly because of human activity” by self-described political affiliation [61]. Source: Produced by the author using TIKZ. Data Source: [61] ...... 146 17 Harary’s triangles. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ...... 148 18 Dynamic behavior of bathtub model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 152 19 Examples of oscillation and overshoot and collapse. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ...... 153 20 Stock-flow model of heat in home. There are two feedback loops. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . . . . 154 21 Feedback loop for bacteria population. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 154 22 Growth of bacteria population, starting with a single cell. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 155 23 System diagram for heat in home, signs marked. We mark the red thermostat control arrow with a − because an increase in temperature tends to decrease the inflow of heat (by shutting off the furnace). We mark the red control arrow to “heat loss” with a + because an increase in temperature increases the rate of heat loss. Both feedback loops are stabilizing. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 156 24 Stock-flow model for metabolism of caffeine in the body. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 157 25 Stock-flow diagrams for the Carters’ electric blanket. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ...... 158 26 Climate model with parameter g that governs the strength of the greenhouse effect (GHE). An increase in g decreases the outflow of long-wave radiation from the planet. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 158 27 Stock-flow model for phosphorus in a lake, with a pollution parameter. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . 159 28 Basic demographic model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 160 29 A Canadian lynx. Source: Keith Williams/Wikimedia Commons. Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0). http://tinyurl.com/yab287ts ...... 160 30 Interaction between lynx and hare populations. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 160 31 Simulation and historical data for hare and lynx populations. Source: Data from [94] based on [107] and [200] . . 161 32 Inventory system with delay. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 162 33 St. Matthew Island. Source: Carport/Wikimedia. May 24, 2010. Public Domain. Screenshot from NASA World Wind. http://tinyurl.com/y7tvhjau ...... 162 34 Model for the reindeer of St. Matthew Island. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 163 35 Growth of $100 at different annual interest rates over 20 years. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . . . . . 169 36 Basic demographic (population) model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 170 37 Demographic model indicating the strength of each control. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 171 38 Find nodes that exhibit triadic closure and calculate clustering coefficients. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ176 39 Find nodes that exhibit triadic closure and calculate clustering coefficients. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ176 40 Find the clustering coefficients and identify bridges. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 177 41 Stock-flow model for Exercise 31 on page 179; the ice-albedo feedback. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ 180 42 Stock-flow model for Exercise 35 on page 179; the Arctic methane release feedback. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 180 43 Stock-flow model for Exercise 37 on page 179; the chemical rock-weathering and biosequestration feedback. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 180

Figures for Chapter 4 183 1 A peach. Source: jrmclovin/Flickr. Aug. 2, 2008. Creative Commons License (CC BY-ND 2.0). http:// tinyurl.com/l9wr8b3 ...... 183 2 John Napier, 1550–1617. Source: Wikimedia Commons. Public Domain. From engraving by Samuel Freeman (1835) based on portrait (1616) ...... 188 3 Graph of y = 3x. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 189 4 Plot of log of soybean production. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 192 5 Simple model for capital formation. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 195 6 Moore’s law: transistors per microprocessor have doubled about once every two years. Source: Data from [80] . . 196 7 William Stanley Jevons. Source: Wikipedia. Public Domain. http://tinyurl.com/ycae3c9j Public Domain 197 8 Your new residence awaits. Source: rSnapshotPhotos/Shutterstock. Standard License. Stock Photo ID: 238032067 199 9 Radiative forcing (relative to the year 1750) over time, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Source: [19] Data from [247]...... 203 10 Likelihood of various estimated values for the climate sensitivity, after [273]. Source: From [273]. Reprinted with permission...... 204 11 Simulation of the constrained growth of a population. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 208 12 Donella Meadows, environmental scientist and lead author of The Limits to Growth. Source: The Donella Meadows Project. Reprinted with permission. http://donellameadows.org/donella-meadows-legacy/ photos-dana/ ...... 210 13 The logistic model is a feedback loop, but the control function is nonlinear. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ212 14 Control function for the logistic model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 212 15 Stock (blue) and ﬂow rate (red) in a logistic model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 213 List of Figures 495

16 Logistic model for nonrenewable resource extraction, e.g., mining. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . . . 214 17 Graphical representation of growth rates in the logistic model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 215 18 Plots of stock against the growth rate for data from a logistic model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. . . 216 19 Fitting a logistic model to U.S. oil production, 1930–1999. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 218 20 One example of a “peak oil” production forecast. Source: Gralo/Wikimedia Commons. Modified from [120]. Copyright holder allows unrestricted redistribution. http://tinyurl.com/y8ea8jxk ...... 219 21 Bathtub example indicating the strength of the control arrow. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 222 22 Stock-flow model for caffeine metabolism. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 223 23 Population model for the U.S. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 223 24 Stock-flow model for fish farm. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 225 25 Graph of inflow and outflow of phosphorus when the pollution level is P = 15 tons per year. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 226 26 Plots of the inflow and outflow of phosphorus, indicating stable and unstable equilibrium points when the pollution level is P = 15 tons/yr. The gray arrows indicate the direction in which the phosphorus stock level will move. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 227 27 The strength of the control is the slope of the red line. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 229 28 Stock-flow diagram for lake phosphorus model, showing control strengths at equilibrium A. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 230 29 Kelp forest at Monterey Bay Aquarium. Source: Tom Bridge/Flickr. Aug. 24, 2010. Creative Commons License (CC BY-ND 2.0). http://tinyurl.com/mn6u4qx ...... 231 30 Kelp forest stock-flow model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 231 31 Plots of the inflow and outflow of phosphorus when the pollution rate is P = 25 tons/yr. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 234 32 Stock-flow diagram for phosphorus at new equilibrium (P = 25 t/ yr). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . . 234 33 Amplification factor. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 237 34 Cover of NAS report. Source: National Academies Press ...... 239 35 The naked planet climate model, from Section 2.4. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 240 36 Graphical representation of equilibrium in the “naked planet” model. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ . . 240 37 Graphical representation of equilibrium taking the greenhouse effect into account. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 241 38 Climate model with greenhouse parameter. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 241 39 Equilibrium at various values of g. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 242 40 Climate model with ice-albedo feedback. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 243 41 The ice-albedo feedback. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ...... 244 42 Graphical representations of the climate model with ice-albedo feedback as it approaches a tipping point. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ...... 245 43 An ordinary light switch is an example of “tipping point” behavior. Source: Steve Cukrov/Shutterstock. Standard License. Stock Photo ID: 95322187...... 246 44 Representations of climate model with Earth in a “Snowball Earth” state. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. 246 45 Graphical representation of model for phosphorus pollution as it approaches a tipping point. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ...... 247 − 46 Stock-flow diagram for phosphorus in a lake showing the strength of each control when P = 27 t yr 1. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 248 47 Critical slowing down in an ecosystem, from van Nes and Scheffer [332]. Source: [332]. Reprinted with permission.249 48 Risks of various climate tipping points at various levels of global warming, from Lenton et al. [192]. Source: [192]. Reprinted with permission...... 250 49 Visual representation of Earth at a tipping point. Illustration by Cheng “Lily” Li. Used with permission. Source: From [42]. Attrib to Cheng (Lily) Li ...... 251 50 A phosphorus model with an unrealistic inflow, used in Exercise 51 on page 257. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 257

Figures for Chapter 5 259 1 Is this a risky activity? Source: szanyierika97/Pixabay. Public Domain. http://tinyurl.com/ycahh8ql . . . 259 2 Is this a risky activity? Source: U.S. Department of Transportation/Wikimedia Commons. Public Domain. http: //tinyurl.com/yauv8wkc ...... 260 3 Box plot for heights in example data set. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 265 4 Box plot of phosphorus data set, with outliers. Data from [130]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [130]...... 267 5 Histogram of class heights corresponding to frequency table given in Table 3 on page 268. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 269 496 List of Figures

6 Histogram of phosphorus concentrations corresponding to Table 4 on page 269 [130]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [130]...... 270 7 Box plot of employee salaries (in thousands of dollars). Note the diamond indicating the mean. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 271 8 Box plot of student scores. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 272 9 A distribution can be skewed to the left or the right. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 274 10 Illustrating skewness via box plots. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 275 11 Body mass index dataset, from [263]. Source: [263] Reprinted with permission...... 275 12 The MIT “Greenhouse Gamble” spinners. “No policy” at the left; “with policy” at the right. From [219]. Source: [219]. Reprinted with permission...... 286 13 Venn diagram for Problem 11 on page 290. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 290 14 Result of flipping ten virtual coins at random.org [144]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Trial and individual coin images from “Coin Flipper” at [144]...... 294 15 Probability distributions for obtaining heads in (a) 20 and (b) 200 flips of a fair coin. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ...... 295 16 A lottery ticket (it lost). Source: Jeffrey Beall/Flickr. July 15, 2006. Creative Commons License (CC BY-ND 2.0). http://tinyurl.com/lenv2dn ...... 300 17 Illustration of the random variable W, the payoff for a certain bet on a coin flip. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 301 18 A random variable X based on the roll of a die. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 301 19 Illustrating the random variable that gives the total number of heads in two coin flips. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 302 20 Total loss. Source: Dedyukhin Dmitry/Shutterstock. Standard Licensed. Stock photo ID: 39504259 ...... 305 21 A risk-averse utility function. Notice how the graph “bends over to the right.” As explained in the text, this “bending” is a sign of risk aversion. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 312 22 A utility function that might be used in prospect theory. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 313 23 Extreme rainfall in Beckley, West Virginia, from [194]. Source: [194] ...... 315 24 Venn diagram for problems 1 on page 318 and 2 on page 318 Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 318 25 Cover of [289], which describes the Sally Clark case. Reprinted with permission. Source: [289]. Reprinted with permission from Hachette Book Group ...... 328 26 The process of (Bayesian) statistical inference. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 330 27 Posterior distributions for arsenic concentrations. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 334 28 Bar chart for Exercise 5 on page 337. U.S. rates of death by age group, 2004. Data obtained from [90]. Original source: [117]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 338

Figures for Chapter 6 345 1 The “blue marble.” Source: NASA. Public domain. http://tinyurl.com/y6vmy47o ...... 345 2 Lord Nicholas Stern. Source: London School of Economics. Courtesy of Lord Stern...... 356 3 The prisoners’ dilemma [344]. Source: Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal [344] ...... 363 4 Productivity of the commons as a function of the number of cows grazing. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ 375 5 Pile of bison skulls waiting to be ground into fertilizer, ca. 1892 [216]. Source: [216] Public Domain...... 379 6 Title page of an Inclosure Act [29]. Source: Adapted from [29] (cropped image). Public Domain...... 380 7 Tightening of U.S. emissions standards for heavy-duty compression-ignition (diesel) engines. Data from [32]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [32]...... 380 8 The cap and trade system. Source: Produced by the author using TIKZ. Factory graphic from Studio G/Shutterstock. Standard License. Image ID: 334409558 ...... 381 9 Carbon Tax Center. Polling data from [185]. Source: Carbon Tax Center. Reprinted with permission. Polling Data from [185]...... 384 10 North Face of Half Dome. Karl Bralich photo. Source: Karl Bralich ...... 390 11 Haidt’s ﬁve moral foundations or scales (a sixth was added later). Source: See [147]...... 391 12 Skipping stones. Source: Cathleen A. Clapper/Shutterstock. Standard License. Stock Photo ID: 828125...... 395 13 Weight of mammals on earth (from xkcd.com). Source: Webcomic “xkcd.” http://xkcd.com/1338/ . . . . . 396 14 The TP aisle. Source: Krista/Flikr. Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0) http://tinyurl.com/ybquvyaz 399

Figures for Chapter 7 411 1 Bottled water for sale on a store shelf. Source: Yusuf C./Flickr. Mar. 3, 2010. Creative Commons License (CC BY 2.0).http://tinyurl.com/hsyr7o7 ...... 414 2 Niagara Falls. Source: jgorzynik/Shutterstock. Standard License. Stock photo ID: 112275293 ...... 416 List of Figures 497

3 Annual premature deaths attributable to household air pollution (from [314]). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [314] ...... 417 4 Box plot for the data from Table 2 on page 420 on millions of acres burned by wildfires in recent years (2005– 2016). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [36]...... 420 5 Box plot for summary statistics from Table 5 on page 421 on millions of acres burned by wildfires (1960–2015). Source: Produced by the author using TIKZ. Data from [36]...... 421 6 View from Mt. LeConte in early April, Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Source: Aviator31/Wikipedia. April 7, 2007. Public Domain. http://tinyurl.com/yd5xcsnm ...... 422 7 KBDI for the continental U.S. on Nov 26, 2016. Throughout much of the Southeast, the KBDI was above 700. In the Great Smoky Mountains National Park along the border of TN and NC, the KBDI ranged from 500-750 [317]. Source: U.S. Forest Service Wildland Fire Assessment System [317] ...... 423 8 KBDI for the continental U.S. on Nov 5, 2007. The KBDI for the region around Great Smoky Mountains National Park is above 500; there are no extensive regions in the Southeast where the index exceeds 700 [317]. Source: U.S. Forest Service Wildland Fire Assessment System [317] ...... 423 9 Predicted changes in the Keetch–Byram Drought Index, 2041–2070 (change relative to the years 1971–2000). Reprinted from [198]. Source: Future U.S. wildfire potential trends. Reprinted with permission from [198] . . . . 424 10 Management of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the U.S., 2014. Adapted from [15]. Source: Produced by the author using TIKZ...... 426 11 A one ounce gold bar, the amount of gold in about 28 tonnes of low-grade ore from an open pit gold mine, or in about 900 smart phones. Source: Stanslavs/Shutterstock. Standard License.Stock photo ID: 746851675 . . . . . 427 12 Sunrise Dam open pit gold mine, Australia. Source: Calistemon/Wikipedia. Oct 12, 2010. Creative Commons License (CC BY-SA 3.0) ...... 427 13 Cradle-to-grave life cycle of a plastic water bottle. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Images (left to right): pan demin/Shutterstock. Stock photo ID: 412353814. 06photo/Shutterstock. Image ID: 133014653. Yvvtt 1b/Flickr. July 13, 2012. Creative Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0). http://tinyurl.com/y9hupk3v Andrey Arkusha/Shutterstock. Image ID: 484717678. mraoraor/Shutterstock. Stock photo ID: 428424577...... 428 14 Comparative energy usage for recycled vs. virgin content products. Reprinted with permission from [228]. Source: Comparative LCAs for Curbside Recyling [228] ...... 430 15 Materials discarded in municipal solid waste (percentage by weight), 2014. Adapted from [15]. Source: EPA [15] 431 16 Four stages of the demographic transition. Adapted from [279]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Adapted from [279]. Creative Commons License (CC BY-SA 4.0) ...... 434 17 Number of deaths per year of children under age five, 1960–2015. Data from [277]. Source: Produced by the author using TIKZ. Date from [277]...... 435 18 Fertility rates by nation, 1960. Data from [278]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [278] . . . . 436 19 Fertility rates by nation, 2015. Data from [278]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [278] . . . . 437 20 Fertility rates in China, which instituted a one-child policy in 1979, and in Thailand, which adopted a national population policy in 1971 based on education and voluntary family planning, 1950–2015. Data from [278]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [278]...... 438 21 Fertility rates by level of development, 1950–2015. Data from [278]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [278]...... 438 22 Population structure of the the world population (2016). The total population in 2016 was estimated at 7.4 billion people. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 439 23 Population structure in first generation. The total population is 75 million people. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 439 24 Population structure in the second generation. The people in the age 0–25 class in the first generation have moved to the second age class (and reproduced themselves). The total population is 110 million people. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 439 25 Percentage of planted acres in the U.S. for GE crops of different types. Bt crops contain an insecticide. HT crops are herbicide resistant. These traits can be “stacked” in the same plant [248]. Source: USDA Economic Research Service [248]...... 444 26 Comparison of rapeseed (canola) yields in Canada and Western Europe. Data from FAO [109]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [109] ...... 444 27 Hypothetical changes in yields based on changes in the amount and quality of land in production. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 446 28 Corn yield in bushels per acre [236]. Reprinted with permission. Source: Historical Corn Grain Yields for Indiana and the U.S. [236]...... 447 29 Herbicide-resistant weeds [129]. Reprinted with permission. Source: A hard look at GM crops [129] ...... 448 30 Schematic diagram of the fission process. At left, a neutron (blue) strikes a fissile nucleus (magenta). The results of fission are shown at the right: two fission product nuclei of slightly different sizes (orange and yellow) and several more neutrons (blue). Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 451 31 Schematic of Yucca Mountain site. 1. Canisters of waste, sealed in special casks, are shipped to the site by truck or train. 2. Shipping casks are removed, and the inner tubes with the waste are placed in steel multilayered storage containers. 3. An automated system sends storage containers underground to the tunnels. 4. Containers are stored along the tunnels, on their sides. (Nuclear Regulatory Commission.) Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, http://www.nrc.gov/images/waste/hlw-disposal/yucca-drawing.jpg ...... 454 32 Use of electricity in U.S. homes, from [9]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 458 33 Whole-house fan remote controller. Source: Author picture ...... 464 34 U.S. residential installed solar PV capacity, from [293]. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ. Data from [293] 466 35 Energy balance of the global solar PV industry. Source: [85] ...... 468 36 The Lucas gusher. Source: Public domain. Original photo by John Trost ...... 471 37 U.S. ethanol production, in billions of gallons. Source: Produced by author using TIKZ ...... 474

List of Tables

Tables for Chapter 1 3 1 Units of Time ...... 7 2 Units of Length (U.S.) ...... 8 3 Units of Length (Metric) ...... 8 4 U.S. Units of Area ...... 10 5 Units of Volume ...... 11 6 Units of Mass (U.S.) ...... 11 7 Units of Mass (Metric) ...... 12 8 Unit Conversions ...... 12 9 Temperature Scale Conversions ...... 14 10 Volume of Water on Earth ...... 18 11 U.S. installed electric generating capacity by source in 2015 (gigawatts) [7]. Source: Produced by the author. Data Source: [7] ...... 47 12 U.S. quarterly natural gas production (billions of cubic feet) [8]...... 47

Tables for Chapter 2 67 1 Amounts of Energy ...... 85 2 Conventional Units of Energy ...... 86 3 Efﬁciency of passenger cars by type. Data from the U.S. Department of Energy [331]...... 90 4 Notations for Simple Climate Model ...... 111

Tables for Chapter 3 127 1 Calculation of β in Figure 1 on page 127 ...... 139 2 Result of Bystander Experiment ...... 143 3 Homophily on Global Warming Concern ...... 147 4 Time Steps and Rate Constants ...... 167 5 The Law of Exponentials ...... 169 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 498 J. Roe et al., Mathematics for Sustainability, Texts for Quantitative Critical Thinking, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76660-7 List of Tables 499

Tables for Chapter 4 183 1 Forested areas in two countries (square miles). Source: UN FAO [109] ...... 185 2 Soybean production ﬁgures and logarithms. Source: Data from [109] ...... 192 3 U.S. population data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau [160]...... 206 4 U.S. population data, with growth rates. Source: 1900-2000 data from [160], 2010 data from [204] ...... 207 5 ACME Corp sales ﬁgures. Source: Author example ...... 208

Tables for Chapter 5 259 1 Example student data. Source: Randomly generated by authors ...... 262 2 Measured phosphorus concentrations and land-use data for lakes used to evaluate phosphorus loading by residential area run-off. Source: From [130]...... 262 3 Frequency table for height data from Example 3 on page 263. Source: Mock data produced by author ...... 268 4 Frequency table for the phosphorus concentration data given in Problem 3 on page 266 Source: From [130] . . . 269 5 Descriptive Statistics ...... 273 6 Solution to Problem 1 on page 282 ...... 283 7 Calculating expectation in the two-dice multiplication problem. Source: Author ...... 306 8 Two-Way Frequency Table ...... 318 9 Shark Attacks ...... 319 10 Two-Way Frequency Table ...... 320 11 Inference Table ...... 322 12 Breast Cancer Screening ...... 324 13 Radioactivity Testing ...... 326 14 Methane Contamination ...... 327 15 Prosecutor’s Fallacy ...... 327 16 Biased Coin Problem ...... 331 17 Biased Coin Problem: Posterior Distribution ...... 332 18 Biased Coin Problem After New Evidence ...... 332 19 Biased Coin Problem: New Posterior Distribution ...... 333

Tables for Chapter 6 345 1 Dilithium Power Plant Analysis: Present Values of Gain and Loss ...... 355 2 Payoff Matrix for “Rock, Paper, Scissors” ...... 361 3 Payoffs for Software Engineers Problem ...... 363 4 Example Payoff Matrix ...... 365 5 Payoff Matrix for Polluted Lakes Example ...... 368 6 Table of Strictly Best Responses ...... 368 7 Payoff Matrix for Shared Pollution Example ...... 369 8 Should I Buy a Cow? ...... 376 9 Should I Buy a Cow? (We Both Have c Cows!) ...... 377 10 Should I Buy a Cow? (We Both Have 1 Cow) ...... 377 11 Should I buy a cow? (We both have 5 cows) ...... 377 12 Should I Buy a Cow? (We Both Have 6 Cows!) ...... 378 13 Should I Buy a Cow? (We Both Have 7 Cows!) ...... 378 14 Milk Production Scenarios ...... 382 15 Should I Buy a Cow? (We Both Have c Cows!) ...... 385 16 Should I buy a cow? (We Both Have c Cows and Tax is Payable!) ...... 385

Tables for Chapter 7 411 1 Rhetorical Appeals ...... 415 2 U.S. Wildfire Data, 2005–2016 ...... 420 3 U.S. Wildfire Data 2005–2016, Sorted by Acres Burned ...... 420 4 Summary Statistics, 2005–2016 ...... 421 5 Summary Statistics, 1960–2016 ...... 421 6 Keetch–Byram Drought Index ...... 422 7 Greenhouse Gas Benefits Associated with Recovery of Materials (2014) ...... 431 8 Natural Radiation Exposures ...... 455 9 Thermal EROEI for Liquid Fuels ...... 473 10 EROEI for Electricity Sources ...... 473 500 List of Tables

Tables for Chapter 8 483 1 Temperature Conversions ...... 485 2 Metric Preﬁxes ...... 486 3 Energy Flows ...... 487 4 Estimated Global Energy Reserves ...... 488 5 Fossil Fuel Facts ...... 488 6 Facts About “Standard” Human Adults ...... 489 Bibliography

Whenever possible we have used a permanent digital object identiﬁer (doi) to provide an active link to material referenced in the bibliography. To visit a source online using the doi listed, use the web address http://dx.doi.org/. For example, the article “Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildﬁre across western U.S. forests” can be accessed at http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113. If you are using the ebook version of the textbook, clicking on a doi below should take you directly to that source. For each online reference without a DOI, we have provided a URL. Whenever a URL would span more than one line of text, we have opted to use the URL-shortening service http://tinyurl.com.

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absolute size, 19 reverse, 463 agent, 349, 361 central limit theorem, 275, 297, 314 albedo, 111 change, 183 allocation, 349 relative v. absolute, 186 amplifying feedback, see feedback chaos, 162 Anthropocene, 394–396, 400, 450 charts, see graphs antilogarithm, 188 cherry-picking, 56 appeal to authority fallacy, 30 chicken game, 369 approximately equal, 38 citing sources, 418 area class interval, 267, 333 and radiant heat, 109 climate change, 73, 107, 141, 379 forested, 185 anthropogenic, 73, 204, 356, 379 in heat loss calculation, 100 climate sensitivity, 203, 237, 260 units of, 9, 484 clustering coefﬁcient, 135 Arrhenius, 114, 202 codistill, 97 atmosphere, 15, 50, 72, 110, 374, 486 commons, 373, 392 tragedy, see tragedy of the commons bar chart complement, 287 column, 269 complete graph, 149 basic demographic model, 159, 170, 195 component, 132 Bayes’ theorem, 325 compound interest, 165 best response, 366 concave, 311 blackbody radiation law, see Stefan’s law concentration, 15, 97, 313 border leakage, 386 conditional probability, 318 box plot, 263, 265 rule, 320 breeder reactor, 453, 487 conduction, 99 Brundtland Report, xi, 393 control burping v. farting, 28 arrow, 154, 171 bystander effect, 142, 360 linear, 222 nonlinear, 212, 227 cap and trade, 381 strength of, 228 capital, 195 sign of, 156, 171, 221 carbon budget, 219, 406 strength, 221–232 carbon cycle, 72 control arrow, 95 carbon dioxide, 15, 50, 73, 79, 106, 114, 202 convection, 99 and carbon, by mass, 73 conversion factor, 7–15, 86, 483–485 and the atmosphere as a commons, 374 cooperate v. defect, see Prisoners’ Dilemma cap and trade, 381 core values, 390 ﬂows, 72 correlation v. causation, 323, 344, 417 revenue-neutral taxation, 383 critical slowing down, 235, 248, 249 carbon fee and dividend, 384 critical thinking, 79, 80 carbon intensity, 459 carbon neutral, 442 data, 261–275, 330 Carnot limit, 91, 461 and politics, 146

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 519 J. Roe et al., Mathematics for Sustainability, Texts for Quantitative Critical Thinking, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76660-7 520 INDEX

communicating, 44–57 eutrophic, 227, 248, 369 precision of, 34 event, 280 set, 261 excludable, 380 decimal notation, 25 expectation, 303 degree, 130, 135 expected payoff, 370 demographer, x expected utility rule, 308 demographic, see basic demographic model expected value, 303 profile, 74, 437 exponent, 24 transition, 434 exponential depreciation, 195 and growth rates, 206 descriptive statistic, 270 and logarithms, 192 directed network, 133 decay, 165, 174 discount rate, 354 discounting, 354 disjoint, 289 growth, x, 165, 166, 169, 172 distribution, 262, 281 law of, 168 skewed, 274 reserve index, 201 doubling time, 172 exponential model, 164 approximation, 173 offset, 165 exact rule, 194 externality, 350, 380 drinking water regulations, 16 extrapolation, 216 extreme value, 264 Earth, xi, 19, 55, 107, 151, 210, 246 physical data, 486 fallacy of multiplication, 56 Summit (Rio, 1992), 398 false negative error, 322 surface temperature, 108 false positive error, 322 ecological footprint, 209, 440 feedback ecosystem services, xiii, 196, 351 amplifying, 155 criticism of, 351 delay, 159 efficiency, 90, 459 ice-albedo, 242 theoretical maximum, see Carnot limit loop, 153 electromagnetic radiation, 108 negative, 155 emissions trading, 393 positive, 155 energy, 20, 49, 81–94, 141, 354, 470 rule of signs, 156 and recycling, 429 stabilizing, 155 and thermodynamics, 88 Fermi problems, 42 centrality of, 84 fertility rate, 436 conservation of, 88 fissile, 451 consumption, 93, 167, 209 flow, 69, 70, 74, 77, 79, 80 definition, 82 dependence on stock, see control arrow different forms of, 83–84 flow arrows, 95 from biomass, 416 foot-pounds, 82 from food, 61 fossil fuels, 162 from fossil fuels, see fossil fuels carbon intensity of, 488 investments and returns, 470 energy content of, 488 nuclear, 84, 450–452 framing, 414 radiant, 84, 108–110 frequency, 268 units of, 86 frequency table, 267, 268 use in home, 99, 153, 458–465 friend network, 130 useful data, 485, 487 energy balance (in climate modeling), 112, 240–247 game, 361 energy trap, 468 game theory, 360, 361 epoch, 394 genetic modification, 444 equally likely probability rule, 282 geoengineering, 254, 407 equilibrium, 69, 72–73, 80, 112, 151, 368, 376 geometric progression, 197 calculating, 95–105 glaciers, 18 Nash, see Nash equilibrium globe, 77 sensitivity of, 232 GMO, see genetic modification stable v. unstable, 225–227 goods, 349 static v. dynamic, 73 grade (of heat energy), 82, 90 sudden change in, see tipping point graphs EROEI, 470, 487 bar charts, 48 INDEX 521

line graph, 50 kelvin, 91 misleading, 51, 55 pie charts, 49 latent heat of evaporation, 92, 486 scatter plots, 50 law of large numbers, 296 use in communicating quantitative information, 48 length, 8 use in determining equilibria, 97, 112, 226, 233, units of, 8 240–247 link (in network), 129 use in exponential models, 191 directed, 133 use in logistic models, 215 strength of, 136, 137 use in modeling dynamic behavior of a system, loan formula, 199 152, 161 logarithmic approximation, 190 gravitational constant, 86, 120, 486 logarithmic change, 190 Great Law of Peace, xii logarithmic transformation, 191 Great Pacific Garbage Patch, 46, 69 logarithms, 188 greenhouse effect, 113 lower quartile, see quartile glass ball model, 114 lumen, 92, 459 gross domestic product, 356 luminous coefficient, 93, 459 growth rate, 207 Malthus, Thomas, 433 half-life, 174 market, 360 approximation, 174 market failure, 350, 356 exact rule, 194 market paradigm, 349 Harary’s theorem, 149 mass heat, 84 units of, 12 high-grade, 88 mean, 270 low-grade, 90 measure of spread, 273 heat engine, 91 measurement claim, 34 heat pump, 462 median, 263 histogram, 268 meta-game, 403 homophily, 147 micron, 62 human power, 87 mixed strategy, 370 human terms, 9, 17, 45, 416 model, 22, 77, 80 measurement rules, 17 and scientific method, see scientific method hypothesis testing, 321 dynamic, xvi stock-flow, 69–80 independent, 291, 307, 320 money, 349 Indian vulture crisis, 132 mutually exclusive, 289 individual in data set, 261 naked planet model, 110 individualism, 391 Napier, 188 inference, 279, 321, 326, 417 Nash equilibrium, 368, 377 numerical, 328 natural capital, 196 inflow, 69, 70, 80 neighbors, 130 information cascade, 143, 360 nepers, 190 information deficit, 141 net flow, 69, 73, 80, 164 integrated assessment modeling, 356 net metering, 309 intellectual capital, 196 network, 129, 360 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 106, 141, connected, 131 204, 237, 298 degree of node, 130 interquartile range, 266, 421 distance between nodes, 131 intersection of events, 289 heterogeneity, 138 investment, 195 strength of ties, 136 invisible hand, 348 node (in network), 129 IPAT equation, 441 nonrenewable resource, 71 Iroquois Confederacy, xii nonsubstitutable, 85 nonuniform probability rule, 285 Jevons paradox, 94, 200, 458 normal distribution, 275–276, 333 joule, 86 nuclear power, 260, 450–457

Keeling curve, 50, 52, 201 observation, 261 Kelvin, 14 odds, 287 522 INDEX offset exponential model, 165 quantitative reasoning, 411, 413–418 Ogallala aquifer, 71, 119, 373, 379 quartile, 264 order of magnitude, 39–43 order-of-magnitude estimation, 41 R-value, 100 oscillation, 159 radiant energy, 108 outcome, 278 radiation, 99 outflow, 69, 70, 80 radiative forcing, 202 outlier, 266 random process, 278, 370 overshoot and collapse, 152, 162, 211 random variable, 301 oversimplification, 74, 116, 184, 259 range, 264 rate constant, 164, 165 Pandora’s Promise, 457 ratio, 15 parameter, 102, 314 regulatory capture, 383 Pareto efficiency, 375 relative frequency, 294 Pareto optimal, 349, 360, 377 relative size, 19 parts per billion, 15 rescaling, 20 parts per million, 15 example of, 44 path, 130 reserve index payback time, 309, 466 exponential, see exponential energy, 467 static, 201 payoff, 361 residence time, 69, 75, 76, 80, 152 payoff matrix, 361, 362 resilience, xii, 134 peak oil, 217 measure of, 137–139 percentage, 14 revealed preferences, 357 perfect information, 361, 365 revenue-neutral tax, 383 perpetual motion machine, 88 rhetoric, 413 Planck’s law, 110 risk aversion, 311–313 planet walk, 21 risk seeking, 312 Poiseuille’s law, 60 pollution, 350 Saint Matthew Island, 162 air, 61, 62, 417 sample space, 280, 300, 370 dilute and disperse, 98 satisficing, 399 phosphorus, 159, 226, 247 savings formula, 198 plastic, 17, 46 scientific method, 69, 77–78, 80, 279, 329–330 population, x scientific notation, 24 population momentum, 437 calculations with, 27 portfolio of sustainability choices, 400 calculator, 31 posterior distribution, 331 conversion, 26 power, 83, 86 standard form, 25, 26 precautionary principle, 398 semilogarithmic, 192 precision, 34, 483 set point, 155, 165 in tables, 48 significand, 24 of measurement , 333 significant figures, 34–39, 483 order of magnitude, 39 calculations, 37 significant figures, 36 sink, 71, 374 v. accuracy, 34 slippery we, 345–347 prediction, 78 small-world, 131 present value, 354, 472 social capital, 196 prior distribution, 329 social optimum, 376 prisoners’ dilemma, 363, 375, 378 socially optimal, 377 privatization, 380 solar constant, 111 probability, 281 source, 71, 374 probability distribution, 204 square root heuristic, 268 probability model, 281 stabilizing feedback, see feedback prosecutor’s fallacy, 327 stable equilibrium, 244 proxy, 97 standard deviation, 273 public goods, xiv standard form, 24 pure number, 14–15, 20, 97 static reserve index, 452 pure time preference, 355, 357 steady state, 358 Stefan’s law, 109, 485 quantitative literacy, xviii stock, 67, 69–71, 74, 76, 77, 79, 80 INDEX 523

computing equilibrium levels, 95–105 uniform probability, 282 in exponential process, see exponential union of events, 288 in logistic model, see logistic unit-factor method, 5–7, 19, 76 in tragedy of commons, 378 units nonequilibrium behavior, 151 control strength, 222–223 of heat conversion, 6, 12, 87, 483–485 in a home, 100, 154 energy, 86 on Earth, 110, 240 flow, 231 stock-flow system, 70 heat loss, 101 Stockholm Convention, 406 human scale, 17, 46, 416 strategy, 361 length, 8 dominant, 366 mass, 12 pure, 370 of flow, 70 strictly dominant, 363, 365, 376 power, 86 strictly best response, 364 radiation exposure, 455 substitutable, 85 temperature, 13 substrate, 97 time, 7 surface temperature volume, 10 of Earth, 55, 108, 240–246 weight, 12 of Mars, 113, 123 unstable equilibrium, 244 of Mercury, 59 upper quartile, see quartile of Sun, 109 utility, 308 of Venus, 113, 123 sustainability, x–xiii, 73, 85, 106 vaccination, 140 and decision-making, 399–400 value of a statistical life, 352 Brundtland Commission definition of, xi variable, 261 question, xi, 80, 85, 345, 355, 392 categorical, 262 numerical, 262 sustainable, xi, 162, 379, 397, 452 Venn diagram, 318 system diagram, 69, 70, 77 virtue ethics, 392 volume, 10 tables of water on Earth, 18 best practices in use of, 47 units of, 10 temperature, 13, 91, 100, 112, 203 absolute zero of, 14 Wason 4-card task, 78 and climate change, 107, 242 watt, 86 and offset exponential model, 165 wavelength, 108 anomaly, 64 weight global mean, 55 units of, 12 probability distribution, 204, 285 work, 82 conversion, 14, 485 surface relative to upper atmosphere, 116 zero sum, 348, 362, 363 units of, 13 test, 321 thermal imaging, 99 thermal radiation, 109 thermal resistance, 100 thermodynamics, 88–93 laws of, 89 thermostat, 100 thesis, 414 time units of, 7 time step, 164, 165 tipping point, 239, 246 climate system, 250 sensitivity, 248 tragedy of the commons, 378, 435 transmission, 458 triadic closure, 135 two-way frequency table, 323