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The Emerging Indo-Pacific Era

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The Emerging Indo-Pacific Era JAPAN-SOUTHEAST ASIA RELATIONS THE EMERGING INDO-PACIFIC ERA KEI KOGA, NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY Japan-Southeast Asia relations have been largely positive over the past year and this trend will likely continue in a foreseeable future. Relations have gained new political traction since early 2018 from Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) concept, which has bolstered Japan’s political, economic, and security engagement with Southeast Asia. There are three main positive trends: a synchronization of Indo-Pacific concepts, Japan’s enhanced security commitment to Southeast Asia, and constructive development of bilateral relations between Japan and Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam. However, these trends have been focused on short-term goals and have not yet cemented a strategic relationship between Southeast Asia and Japan. Accomplishing that longer-term goal depends on whether Japan and Southeast Asian states can effectively manage three emerging challenges: reconciling differences with the US approach to the FOIP, expanding economic connectivity, and developing digital infrastructure. This article is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal of Bilateral Relations in the Indo-Pacific, Vol. 21, No. 1, May 2019. Preferred citation: Kei Koga, “Japan-Southeast Asia Relations: The Emerging Indo-Pacific Era,” Comparative Connections, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp 125-134. JAPAN-SOUTHEAST ASIA RELATIONS | MAY 2019 125 Japan-Southeast Asia relations have been ASEAN/India/Australia up.” While encouraging largely positive over the past year and this trend a sustained US presence in the region and will likely continue in the foreseeable future. constraining China’s behavior with existing This is partly because Japan-Southeast Asian international rules and norms, Japan aims to relations have gained new political traction from empower ASEAN, India, and Australia through Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific”(FOIP) the enhancement of bilateral and multilateral concept, which has bolstered Japan’s political, ties. However, there is always a risk that Japan economic, and security engagement with could face a situation where its FOIP concept is Southeast Asia. Relations have reached a high not endorsed by regional states. point. According to the 2019 ISEAS survey, Southeast Asian states consider Japan (65.9%) Indeed, in May 2018, Singapore’s Foreign the most trusted state; compared to the United Minister Vivian Balkrishnan stated that unless States (27.3%) and China (19.6%). They also ASEAN centrality was clearly defined in the FOIP believe Japan (65.9%) would contribute to global concept, Singapore would not join related peace, security, prosperity and governance groupings such as the quadrilateral cooperative whereas the US (27.3%) and China (19.6%) had framework between Australia, India, Japan, and much lower scores. the United States. This concern was generally shared by all ASEAN member states because Further, the warming relationship between such non-ASEAN arrangements would Japan and China, which has been maintained politically marginalize the association and since Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to Japan in May prevent it from setting or controlling the agenda 2018, made it easier for Southeast Asian states for regional multilateralism. This is one of the to enhance their relations with Japan. Despite most compelling reasons why Indonesia began existing regional issues such as territorial pursuing the idea of developing a separate disputes in the South China Sea, the most ASEAN Indo-Pacific concept in 2018, resulting significant strategic concern for most Southeast in ASEAN’s formal discussion on the concept in Asian states is that they might be forced to align November. In March 2019, Indonesia hosted the with a particular major power, either the US or first High-Level Dialogue on Indo-Pacific China. Since Japan consistently sides with the Cooperation, emphasizing the basic principles US, improvement in China-Japan relations that ASEAN values: openness, inclusivity, provides Southeast Asian states with more transparency, rules-based order, and ASEAN strategic space to flexibly manage relations with centrality. the major powers, at least in the short-term. Japan moved to mitigate ASEAN’s concern by In this context, three main positive trends incorporating the association’s principles into strengthened Japan-Southeast Asia relations: a its FOIP concept between mid-2018 to early- synchronization of Indo-Pacific concepts, 2019. In August 2018, some ASEAN member Japan’s enhanced security commitment to states argued that it would be difficult to Southeast Asia, and the constructive support the “strategy” as it would presumably development of bilateral relations between target China. Accordingly, Japan eliminated the Japan and Southeast Asia states, particularly term “strategy” since it was seen as connoting Vietnam. However, these are short-term trends. that there were targeted actors to “defeat,” Ultimately, the relationship depends on whether shifting from talking about the “Free and Open Japan and Southeast Asian states can manage Indo-Pacific Strategy,” to simply using “FOIP.” three emerging challenges: reconciling While the change in terminology does not have differences with the US approach to the FOIP, a strategic impact on Japan’s basic posture or expanding economic connectivity, and policies, it sends a political signal that Japan is developing digital infrastructure. open to suggestions from external actors, particularly ASEAN. Three positive trends A second, more important, change was Japan Recent stability in Japan-Southeast Asian incorporation of the principle of “ASEAN unity relations is well illustrated by three major and centrality” into its FOIP concept. Japan’s positive trends. First, Japan and Southeast initial FOIP framework in 2016 was rudimentary Asia’s concepts of the Indo-Pacific concept have and did not include a reference to ASEAN. In gradually aligned in the past year. The basis for 2018, Japan incorporated ASEAN in its FOIP Japan’s FOIP concept is “US in, China down, conceptual map and publicly emphasized the 126 MAY 2019 | JAPAN-SOUTHEAST ASIA RELATIONS importance of ASEAN centrality and unity. The from April to July, bringing JS Izumo and JS Quad states also publicized the importance of Murasame with approximately 590 personnel to these principles: there is Indian Prime Minister visit Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and Narendora Modi’s keynote speech at the 2018 Singapore. Shangri-La Dialogue, Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne’s speech at the These operations are neither equivalent to US 2019Australia-US Dialogue, and the 2019 joint freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) nor statement of the US-Japan Security Consultative guaranteed to be conducted every year given Committee. Mitigating ASEAN’s political Japan’s limited military assets. Also, if they not concerns in the context of the emerging FOIP carefully managed, these operations could concepts have gradually aligned the concepts of provide China justification to be more assertive Japan and ASEAN, creating a shared vision in the South China Sea. Nevertheless, Japan’s toward the Indo-Pacific region. increased presence and visibility in the South China Sea has served to check China’s activities, Japan has also started institutionalizing its which has been welcomed by some Southeast defense commitment to Southeast Asia. Japan’s Asian states, especially Vietnam. Japan has also “Vientiane Vision” in 2016 set the framework engaged with other potential partners, for cooperation to ensure regional security, including France and the United Kingdom, to including management of nontraditional coordinate such operations. If a division of labor security and maritime security, with ASEAN is established, this could offer a new strategic member states. As part of this effort, Japan has option that Southeast Asian states can rely on conducted joint military exercises and capacity- for ensuring freedom of navigation and building programs. overflight in the South China Sea. Bilaterally, as the Philippines and Vietnam face While Japan’s bilateral relations with each acute strategic pressures from China over the Southeast Asian state have been well managed, South China Sea, Japan not only provided these efforts have been concentrated on a maritime law enforcement assets, such as coast limited number of states, Vietnam in particular. guard patrol ships, but also conducted The focus on Vietnam is partly because it is the coordinated capacity building programs with ASEAN country coordinator for Japan from 2018 the United States, aimed at strengthening to 2021. However, with Vietnam becoming the Southeast Asian states’ capabilities, including ASEAN chair in 2020, it will also be able to shape maritime domain awareness (MDA). In this the ASEAN agenda during its tenure. Vietnam connection, Japan also plans to launch new welcomes this opportunity because Japan has programs, such as the “professional airmanship been an important strategic partner for its program,” which facilitates confidence- economic and defense development. building measures between air services and Additionally, 2018 was the 45th anniversary of nurtures shared values to adhere to rule of law. Japan-Vietnam diplomatic relations, which gave both states traction to enhance bilateral ties. While these programs illustrate the continuity of Japan’s commitment, the most salient trend President Tran Dai Quang visited Japan in May of Japan’s policy in Southeast Asia from 2018 is
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