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Cultural Cognition and Climate Change: Communicating Climate Science Across Potential Divides in Sweden

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Cultural Cognition and Climate Change: Communicating Climate Science Across Potential Divides in Sweden Master thesis in Sustainable Development 250 Examensarbete i Hållbar utveckling Cultural Cognition and Climate Change: Communicating Climate Science across Potential Divides in Sweden Jamieson Bray DEPARTMENT OF EARTH SCIENCES INSTITUTIONEN FÖR GEOVETENSKAPER Master thesis in Sustainable Development 250 Examensarbete i Hållbar utveckling Cultural Cognition and Climate Change: Communicating Climate Science across Potential Divides in Sweden Jamieson Bray Supervisor: Erica von Essen Evaluator: Eva Friman Copyright © Jamieson Bray and the Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University Published at Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University (www.geo.uu.se), Uppsala, 2015 Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 2. Climate Change Science ......................................................................................... 1 3. Problem Formulation ............................................................................................... 2 4. Case Study ............................................................................................................... 3 5. Research Questions ................................................................................................ 4 6. Research Objectives ................................................................................................ 4 7. Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................ 4 7.1. Dual Process Reasoning ....................................................................................................... 5 7.2. Ideological Predispositions ................................................................................................... 7 7.3. Motivated Reasoning ........................................................................................................... 10 8. Methodology & Methods ........................................................................................10 9. A Summary of the Findings ...................................................................................12 9.1. Influence of seniority on Climate Change Perception ............................................... 12 9.2. Contesting the Science: Public Ignorance and Scientific Uncertainty .................... 14 9.3. Media Sensationalism and Hyperbolism ..................................................................... 16 9.4. Distrust of Higher Authorities ........................................................................................ 17 9.5. Climate Change as a Religion and Denial of Injury ................................................... 19 10. Second-tier Analysis: Risk Perception amongst the Sceptics ............................20 10.1. The Role of Ideological Predispositions ...................................................................... 20 10.2. Psychological Mechanisms Associated with Dual Process Reasoning ................. 21 10.3. Peer Group Loyalty Associated with Motivated Reasoning ..................................... 23 10.4. Different Perceptions of Risk in Space and Time ...................................................... 24 11. Barriers and Ways Forwards in Communicating Climate Science ......................24 12. Conclusion ..............................................................................................................26 13. Acknowledgements ................................................................................................26 14. References ..............................................................................................................27 Appendix .............................................................................................................................35 Cultural Cognition and Climate Change: Communicating climate science across potential divides in Sweden JAMIESON BRAY Bray, J., 2015: Cultural Cognition and Climate Change: Communicating climate science over potential divides in Sweden. Master Thesis E in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No. 250, 37 pp, 30ECTS/hp Abstract: Human civilization is failing in the fight to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and limit the impact of anthropogenic climate change. Whilst there are likely numerous reasons for this inertia, societal risk perception plays a fundamental role in influencing the speed and effectiveness of political and social action to address climate change. This study presents the psychological, sociological and cultural reasons for variations in the perceptions of risk amongst a group of climate change sceptics in Sweden. Highlighting cognitive barriers and characteristics associated with different ideological biases and worldviews. The paper concludes that people become more or less sceptical to climate change based on a variety of potentially intersectional issues. Whilst gender, age and wisdom all play a role, the social groups with which people identify, as well as individuals’ values and ideas of what constitutes an ideal society ultimately shape ones perception of risk in relation to climate change. The implications for the communication of climate science are discussed, revealing that any inclusive communication strategy will fail unless it is presented in a way that affirms rather than challenges one’s cultural identity. Key Words: Sustainable Development; Climate Change; Scepticism; Cultural Cognition; Risk Perception, Ideological Predispositions Jamieson Bray, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden Cultural Cognition and Climate Change: Communicating climate science across potential divides in Sweden JAMIESON BRAY Bray, J., 2015: Cultural Cognition and Climate Change: Communicating climate science over potential divides in Sweden. Master Thesis E in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No. 250, 37 pp, 30ECTS/hp Popular Summary Climate change has become a major threat to a globalised world. Despite over 20 years of international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), we are no closer to reducing the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that is altering the climate of our planet. In Sweden, presently all the political parties support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) findings on climate change and the country as a whole is supportive of moving towards a low greenhouse gas emitting economy. This paper asks why, despite the political consensus and the multiple lines of empirical evidence, are there still factions in Swedish society that refuse to accept the science supporting anthropogenic climate change. This study positions the problem as a cognitive challenge that could inhibit cooperative outcomes and support for any grass-root, as well as top down, action to address climate change. The research focuses on a group of climate change sceptics in Sweden, and a non- governmental organisation through which they operate called The Stockholm Initiative. The Stockholm Initiative has attempted to influence Swedish politics on several occasions and is the main arena for questioning the consensus on climate change within Sweden. Drawing on the experiences and opinions of several of its members, insights are provided into how risk perception works for climate sceptic individuals. The paper concludes by illuminate alternative ways forward for the communication of climate change science across potential divides. It is suggested that any proposed communication strategies need to be culturally affirming to individuals, as well sensitive to the levels and scales at which people generally apprehend the greatest risks. Key Words: Sustainable Development; Climate Change; Scepticism; Cultural Cognition; Risk Perception, Ideological Predispositions Jamieson Bray, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden 1. Introduction This paper examines the importance of cognition – process of thought – and cultural commitments in shaping individuals’ perception of risk towards climate change. Sweden is recognized throughout the world as a leader in environmental issues, an image that Swedish governments, right wing or left wing, try to maintain (Sarasini, 2009). Yet why, despite large political and public support, as well as decades of empirical evidence showing man’s effect on the climate, are there still factions of Swedish society that actively deny anthropogenic climate change? This study positions the problem as a cognitive challenge that could inhibit cooperative outcomes and support for any grass-root, as well as top down, action to address climate change. After a brief outline of the problem statement and current scientific position on anthropogenic climate change, an introduction of three dynamics of cultural cognition will be presented. In order to resolve individual differences in risk perception, the three conceptions will be examined separately; the first is dual process reasoning - two modes of information processing that influence the effectiveness of decision making. The second is the ‘group’ and ‘grid’ scheme, drawn from cultural theory that helps measure cultural worldviews and ideological predispositions. Finally, the third is motivated reasoning – how individuals selectively credit and discredit evidence in patterns that reflects their commitments to various self- defining groups. The interaction of these three dynamics is known
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