Rainfed , Climate Change & Prospects, Opportunities and Risks Mitigation and Adaptation

Mahendra Shah, Guenther Fischer and Harrij van Velthuizen IIASA, Laxenburg , Austria www.iiasa.ac.at

FAO Expert Meeting 2 Climate Change, and Food Security 26 -28 th 2008 FAO, Rome IntegratedIntegrated AgroecologyAgroecology --SocioeconomySocioeconomy SpatialSpatial MethodologyMethodology andand PolicyPolicy AnalysisAnalysis

 ClimateClimate ChangeChange andand Variability:Variability: AgroAgro --ecologyecology  Arable Land & Water Resources: Productivity & Sustainability  FoodFood ProductionProduction andand Trade:Trade: FoodFood SecuritySecurity  RuralRural Population:Population: AgricultureAgriculture andand RuralRural LivelihoodsLivelihoods  RainfedRainfed AgricultureAgriculture && ClimateClimate ChangeChange MitigationMitigation  RainfedRainfed AgricultureAgriculture && ClimateClimate ChangeChange AdaptationAdaptation Agroecology-Socioeconomic Modeling

33

Climate impact 4 Climate response relations 4 22 model

11 GGI Production Demand scenario Global Food Trade System

World Market 55

66 IPCC SRES Scenarios

Source: IPCC, 2001. IPCC SRES Development Scenarios to 2100

Population, Scenario A1, B1 GDP per caput 10000 A1,B1 120000 100000 8000 A1-MDC A1-LDC AML 80000 A2-MDC 6000 ASIA A2-LDC 60000 REF B2-MDC millions 4000 OECD GDP $/cap 40000 B2-LDC B1-MDC 2000 20000 B1-LDC

0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Population, Scenario B2 Population, Scenario A2 12000 B2 16000 A2 14000 10000 12000 8000 AML 10000 AML ASIA ASIA 6000 8000 REF REF millions millions OECD 6000 OECD 4000 4000 2000 2000

0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Agro-ecological Zones Methodology AgroAgro --ecologicalecological ZonesZones MethodologyMethodology GeographicalGeographical DataData LayersLayers

1. Monthly climatology 1960 – 1996; CRU at University of East Anglia; at 0.5 deg. latitude/longitude AgroAgro --ecologicalecological ZonesZones MethodologyMethodology GeographicalGeographical DataData LayersLayers

2. Terrain slope database; USGS Eros Data Center; digital elevation at 30 arc-seconds latitude/longitude AgroAgro --ecologicalecological ZonesZones MethodologyMethodology GeographicalGeographical DataData LayersLayers

3. FAO/Unesco digital Soil Map of the World; UN Food and Agriculture Organization; at 5 arc-min. latitude/longitude AgroAgro --ecologicalecological ZonesZones MethodologyMethodology GeographicalGeographical DataData LayersLayers

4. Global land cover characteristics database; USGS Eros Data Center; at 1 km resolution. AgroAgro --ecologicalecological ZonesZones MethodologyMethodology GeographicalGeographical DataData LayersLayers

5. Global gridded population distribution data of 1995; CIESIN; at 2.5 arc-min. latitude/longitude resolution. Global Agro-ecological Zones

Environmental resources database including climate, soil, terrain, and land cover

comprising 2.2 million grid cells,

assessing the agricultural potential

of all crops, pastures, trees, shrubs

at three levels of farming technology. Environmental constraints to -fed agriculture, reference climate 1961-90

Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, HadCM3-A1FI 2080s Length of Growing Period, reference climate 1961-90

Length of Growing Period, HadCM3-A1FI 2080s Suitability for rain-fed cereals, reference climate 1961-90.

Change in suitability for rain-fed cereals, HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s Undefined SI > 75 : Very high SI > 63 : High SI > 50 : Good SI > 35 : Medium SI > 20 : Moderate SI > 10 : Marginal SI > 0 : Very marginal Not suitable Water Suitability for pastures, reference climate 1961-90.

Undefined SI > 75 : Very high SI > 63 : High SI > 50 : Good SI > 35 : Medium SI > 20 : Moderate SI > 10 : Marginal SI > 0 : Very marginal Not suitable Water Suitability for pastures, ECHAM-A2, 2080s. Undefined < 10% 10% - 30% 30% - 50% 50% - 70% 70% - 90% > 90% Water Protected Unproductive Very marginal Intensity of grass/scrub/wood land (percent)

None < 1 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 > 200 Water Density of ruminant livestock (cattle equiv./ha)

Source: GAEZ 2007, IIASA-LUC/FAO and FAO, 2005. 1800

1750 A2 Cultivated B2 1700 A1 Land B1 1650 A2 projected for 1600 B2 A1 different IPCC 1550 Cultivated Land (1000 ha) Land (1000 Cultivated B1 economic 1500 development paths 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

WORLD 1200 Source: Fischer et al., 2002 1150 1100

1050 A2 B2 1000 A1 950 B1 DEVELOPING 900

COUNTRIES ha) Land (1000 Cultivated 850 800 1990 2020 2050 2080 28%

Cereals 48% Other crops GlobalGlobal UseUse ofof Fodder crops ArableArable Land,Land, MDCs: yearyear 20002000 24% 619 mln ha Land in consumption World mln ha

Crops (excl feed) 1005.4 3% Cereals 536.9 Other crops 468.5

Feed use 514.1 Cereals 51% Other crops Cereals 214.2 46% Other crops 94.4 Fodder crops Fodder crops 205.5 of which LDCs: Ruminants 307.7 900 mln ha Other livestock 206.4 How much land is available?

14.0 Built-up Crops 12.0 1.6 Forest Unvegetated 10.0 3.7 Grass/Shrub

8.0 Very marginal 12% 13.1 12.9 6.0 3.1 11.4 Livestock& 10**9 hectare Bioenergy 4.0 7.6 46% Unproductive 2.0 4.5 22%

0.0 1 2 3 4 5

Too steep 1 ... Total land (excl. Antarctica and Greenland) Protected 11% 2 ... excluding built-up land 9% 3 ... excluding arable and perennial cropland Source: IIASA-LUC, 2007 4 ... excluding forests 5 ... excluding barren land & water FoodFood andand AgricultureAgriculture OutlookOutlook Growth of: 2000 -2050 Sources of growth in Arable land 12% agricultural production, Cereal production 69% Scenario A2r, 2000-2050 Ruminant meat 73% Other meat 85% Agriculture 86% 75% Yield increases

Index of agricultural production, IIASA A2r scenario, 2000-2080 250 LDCs MDCs

200 Intensification Increases in 13% cropping intensity 150 12% Arable land expansion

100 Index(2000 =100) 50 Source: World Food System simulations of IIASA GGI scenarios, Fischer et al. (2005). 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Integrated ecological-economic Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Food and Agriculture Systems COUNTRY A TheThe InternationalInternational LinkageLinkage EXCHANGE PRODUCTION EQUILIBRIUM Non-agriculture Agriculture production production Prices, consumption, stocks, net inin thethe WorldWorld FoodFood SystemSystem exports to satisfy: Production inputs: • Budget constraint • Land • Fertilizer • Market clearance • Labour • Others Model • Trade balance Model • Capital • Trade quota 18 national models, 2 country-group models, GOVERNMENTPOLICIES 14 regional models Target price, tariffs, taxes, quota, etc.

Commodities: wheat, rice, International commodity prices PW Net trade EA coarse grains, protein feed, COUNTRY B

bovine & ovine meat, dairy PW products, other animal WORLD MARKETS

products, other food, non- EB International prices to satisfy: food agriculture, non- • commodity balances agriculture. • financial transfer balance

EC ED EE Linkage: trade, world market PW PW PW prices and financial flows COUNTRY C COUNTRY D COUNTRY E SimulatedSimulated ImpactsImpacts ofof ClimateClimate ChangeChange onon RegionalRegional CropCrop andand LivestockLivestock ProductionProduction –– 2080s2080s

10

8

6

4

2 WORST 0 AVERAGE

% change -2

-4

-6

-8

-10 WORLD North Europe & East Asia South Sub- Russia Asia Saharan America Africa

Note: percent changes relative to SRES A2 reference projection without climate change. The diagram is based on food system simulations using climate projections obtained from four climate models for the IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario. Cereal Net Imports of Developing Countries

projected for different IPCC economic development paths

2080

2050 B1 B2 2020 A2

1990

0 100 200 300 400 Cereal Net Imports (million tons) Number of People at Risk of Hunger projected for different IPCC economic development paths

900 800 700 600 A2 500 B2 400 B1 300 A1 200 100

Poeple of (millions) Hunger Risk at 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Source: Fischer et al., 2002 EconomicEconomic ImpactsImpacts ofof ClimateClimate ChangeChange HadleyHadley A1F1A1F1 ScenarioScenario 20802080

% Ag GDP % Cereal Production World -1.5 -1.4 Developed -0.5 2.8 North America 7.5 1.3 Europe -14.7 -3.4

Devloping -1.9 -3.9 Africa -4.9 -0.6 Latin america 3.7 15.9 Asia -4.3 -8.6

World Market prices( % change from Ref Scenario) Cereals 19.5% All crops 10.5% IndiaIndia :Climate:Climate ChangeChange YieldYield ImpactImpact -- 20802080

Wheat Rice Maize Pulses Roots Oil Sugar H3A1f -41.5 0.2 -2.5 6.1 -7.5 -5.3 -9.8 H3A2 -36.6 -3.6 -3.1 1.4 -23.9 -8.8 -9.6 H3B2 -20.8 -3.3 -2.8 3.0 -9.3 -6.5 -8.9 H3B1 -15.6 0.5 -0.8 5.9 3.8 -0.6 -6.3

CSA1 -25.2 -0.1 -0.4 9.6 1.8 -2.4 -8.0 CSA2 -25.8 -1.1 -1.0 6.7 -4.8 -4.5 -9.7 CSB2 -18.3 -2.7 -1.2 5.6 -1.0 -4.7 -8.9 CSB1 -17.3 -1.9 -1.6 5.3 -2.2 -4.0 -7.5

C2A2 -16.5 0.5 2.4 17.2 13.7 2.3 -9.9 C2B2 -17.7 2.4 1.9 17.6 17.4 3.0 -7.5

NCA2 -32.5 4.5 0.6 13.7 19.7 0.3 -6.3 NCB2 -19.4 4.0 -0.5 11.4 19.9 -0.4 -4.7

Note: weighted yield impact for rain-fed and irrigated cultivation (% change). IndiaIndia :: ImpactImpact ofof ClimateClimate ChangeChange onon AgricultureAgriculture –– 2080s2080s

Cereal GDP Cereal Production Agriculture Consumption H3A1f -15.7 -4.8 -7.5 H3A2 -15.9 -7.9 -6.4 H3B2 -9.8 -4.4 -4.4 H3B1 -5.7 -1.0 -3.8

CSA1b -9.6 -1.8 -4.6 CSA2 -10.4 -3.9 -4.1 CSB2 -8.2 -2.8 -4.9 CSB1 -7.5 -2.7 -5.0

CSA2 -5.7 1.0 -2.2 CSB2 -5.4 2.5 -1.2

NCA2 -10.3 0.9 -0.4 NCB2 -5.7 1.9 0.1

Note: percent change relative to respective reference projection without climate change DownDown --scalingscaling ResultsResults :: ValueValue ofof AgriculturalAgricultural OutputOutput perper GridGrid --cellcell

0 167 333 500 667 833 1000 1167 1333 1500 1667 1833 2000 2167 2333 2500 2667 2833 3000 3167 3333 3500 3667 3833 >=4000 Climate Change Impacts and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ECHAM4, 2080s

150 125 Developing Developed 100 Transition 75

50 25 0 -25

% production change potential -50 0.01 0.1 1 10

CO2 emissions per capita (tons Carbon; logarithmic scale) (Fairness and Equity? Greenhouse gas emissions since 1950: 75% from developed countries, 25% from developing countries water water water water – – fedandirrigated), land fedandirrigated), land - -

ecological Spatial Analysis Spatial ecological Analysis Spatial ecological - - energy energy and foodcropcompetition Agro Agro energy and foodcropcompetition - - stress areas(rain stress areas,scarcepressures forest areas,on arid semi and arid areas crops,andcurrentpotentialFood land and resources, water yield gap analysis production Livestock (pastoral, intensive and mixed) and environmentalhealth and impacts Bio Climate change agricultural adaptation and mitigation Assessment of Assessment environmental changes stress areas(rain stress areas,scarcepressures forest areas,on arid semi and arid areas crops,andcurrentpotentialFood land and resources, water yield gap analysis production Livestock (pastoral, intensive and mixed) and environmentalhealth and impacts Bio Climate change agricultural adaptation and mitigation Assessment of Assessment environmental changes           - -

socioeconomic Spatial Analysis socioeconomic Spatial Analysis - -

Agroecological Agroecological adaptation and mitigation and adaptation International food system and prices; prices; and system food International crop of impacts regional and Global and producer major in failures security Food regions: consumer implications reforms trade and subsidy of Impacts change climate of costs and Impacts adaptation and mitigation and adaptation International food system and prices; prices; and system food International crop of impacts regional and Global and producer major in failures security Food regions: consumer implications reforms trade and subsidy of Impacts change climate of costs and Impacts         Rainfed Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation

 Conserve forest areas to reduce CO2 emissions; also important wi th regard to protecting wetland areas, reducing risks  Promote conservation tillage, agro -forestry, and rehabilitation of degraded crop and pasture land  Reduce practices of “slash and Burn” especially in range land ar eas as well with regard to crop residue burning.  Monitor seasonal variability and integrate rangeland and feedlot s as well as livestock migration in response to seasonal climate changes on g razing availability and condition, especially in semi -arid rangelands where soil erosion and decreased recharge of local watering points and aqui fers severely limit the productivity rangeland.  Improvement of nutrition and genetics of ruminant livestock, sto rage and capture technologies for manure, and conversions of emissions in to biogas.  Ensure efficient use and application of fertilizers through for example, precision agriculture  Adopting livestock production technologies that reduce GHG emiss ions RainfedRainfed AgricultureAgriculture && ClimateClimate ChangeChange AdaptationAdaptation

 Climate Change Research : Systemic observation, monitoring and data gathering; building scientific capacity and establishing researc h networks; downscaling GCMs to RCMs , climate change and food security policy analysis

 Agricultural Knowledge Systems: Information communication networks; Inventory existing adaptation practices

 Agricultural Sciences: A systemic combination biological sciences, agro - ecology, social and economic sciences.

 Agricultural Extension Services : Promotion of moisture conserving technology in rainfed areas including conservation tillage; biological and chemical responses to potential climate change emergence of pes ts and diseases; management and supplementary system s; changing crop varieties and planting dates etc

 Agricultural Marketing Services: Disseminating market price information as well as timely weather information; crop insuranc e schemes; agro -industries to maximize value chain to farmers Intergenerational Sustainability

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