East Riding of Yorkshire Housing Needs and Market Assessment Final Report May 2007 JOB NUMBER: 5042721 DOCUMENT REF: Document1 0 Draft Report MB/MT RS PL LC Jul-06 1 Draft Final Report MB/MT RS PL LC Sep-06 2 Final Report MB/MT RS PL LC Nov-06 3 Amended Final Report MB/MT RS PL LC Dec-06 4 Amended AS LC Apr 07 Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date Revision Purpose Description East Riding of Yorkshire Housing Needs and Market Assessment CONTENTS Glossary 1-1 1. INTRODUCTION 1-1 2. POLICY CONTEXT 2-1 National Policy 2-1 Regional Policy 2-5 Local Policy 2-12 3. SPATIAL EXTENT OF LOCAL HOUSING MARKETS 3-1 Conclusions 3-3 4. KEY ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 4-1 Conclusions 4-13 5. SUPPLY OF DWELLINGS 5-1 Introduction 5-1 Stock of Dwellings 5-1 Housing Pipeline 5-10 Conclusions 5-12 6. MARKET PROFILE 6-1 Introduction 6-1 Methodology 6-1 Market Profile by Sub-area 6-2 Conclusion 6-12 7. HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT 7-1 Conclusions 7-18 8. HOUSING NEEDS ANALYSIS 8-1 Introduction 8-1 Conclusions 8-34 i East Riding HMAS Final Report.doc East Riding of Yorkshire Housing Needs and Market Assessment List of Tables Table 3.1 – Migration movements originating in East Riding 2000-2001 3-2 Table 3.2 – Migration movements to East Riding 2000-2001 3-4 Table 3.3 – Destination of commuters who live in East Riding 3-5 Table 3.4 – Origin of commuters who work within East Riding 3-5 Table 4.1 – Total Population 2001 by Sub-area 4-1 Table 4.2 – Population change 1982-2002 4-3 Table 4.3 – Population Turnover 2000-2001 4-5 Table 4.4 – Total Migration per 1,000 Population 2000-2001 by Age 4-6 Table 4.5 – Total In Migration per 1,000 population (2000-2001) by Age and Sub-area 4-7 Table 4.6 – Average Household Size by Sub-area 4-7 Table 4.7 – Average IMD Score 2004 4-9 Table 4.8 – Proportion of jobs within each sub-area 4-11 Table 4.9 – Occupation Types 4-12 Table 4.10 – Mean Household Income 2005 4-13 Table 5.1 – Location of dwellings by sub-area (2001) 5-1 Table 5.2 - % Increase in Dwellings (2001/02-2005/06) 5-2 Table 5.3 – Dwelling type by sub-area (2001) 5-3 Table 5.4 – People in Communal Establishments (2001) 5-5 Table 5.5 – Tenure (2001) 5-6 Table 5.6 – Persons per Room (2001) 5-8 Table 5.7 – Occupancy Rating by sub-area (2001) 5-9 Table 5.8 – Households with access to central heating/bathroom (2001) 5-9 Table 5.9 – Condition of Dwellings (2004) 5-10 Table 5.10 – Potential dwellings by sub-area 5-12 Table 6.1 – Overall House Price Increases (1998 Q4 – 2005 Q4) 6-3 Table 7.1 – Total estimated households 2006 7-4 Table 7.2 – Comparison of estimated households figure 7-4 Table 7.3 – Total existing households planning to move within the next year 7-5 Table 7.4 – Reasons why households cannot move by destination (%) 7-6 Table 7.5 – Location preference of those that wish to move 7-7 Table 7.6 – Location preference within East Riding 7-7 Table 7.7 – Potential dwellings identified in the Housing Land Position Statement 2006 7-8 Table 7.8 – Property type preference of current households that wish to move (%) 7-9 Table 7.9 –Property type Preference including newly forming households (%) 7-9 Table 7.10 – Current provision of stock in East Riding (%) 7-10 Table 7.11 – Tenure Preference including newly forming households (%) 7-11 Table 7.12 – Tenure of stock - 2001 Census (%) 7-12 Table 7.13 – Preference of Number of Bedrooms (%) 7-12 Table 7.14 – Current provision of stock by number of bedrooms – 2001 Census (%) 7-13 Table 7.15 - Housing Market Pressure Analysis 7-14 Table 8.1 - Parishes sampled in the household survey and sample error 8-2 Table 8.2 - ODPM Needs Assessment Summary 8-3 ii East Riding HMAS Final Report.doc East Riding of Yorkshire Housing Needs and Market Assessment Table 8.3 - Summary of current housing need in the East Riding 8-4 Table 8.4 - Housing need by tenure 8-5 Table 8.5 - Households who moved into social rented accommodation as they were in housing need 8-11 Table 8.6 - Reasons for moving into social rented accommodation 8-11 Table 8.7 - Average annual amount of affordable stock available for new households by settlement, designation (general/older person) and property size 8-12 Table 8.8 - Annual affordable dwelling requirements by area, designation, type and size 8-15 Table 8.9 - Affordable housing tenure preferences by Planning area 8-16 Table 8.10 - Affordable housing preferences by property size and tenure (Social Rented)8-17 Table 8.11 - Affordable housing preferences by property size and tenure (Intermediate) 8-18 Table 8.12 - Intermediate tenure prices and distribution of what could be afforded 8-20 Table 8.13 - Summary of the affordability of sub-market property prices (% who can afford market housing) 8-20 Table 8.14 - Intermediate tenure preferences 8-21 Table 8.15 - Affordable Housing Tenure Definitions 8-21 Table 8.16 - Existing households on housing register by market area and ward 8-24 Table 8.17 - Affordable housing development in the East Riding from 2001/2 8-25 Table 8.18 - Older person households’ aids/adaptations requirements 8-26 Table 8.19 - Older person households’ support requirements 8-26 Table 8.20 - Older persons’ options considered relevant now or in the next five years 8-27 Table 8.21 - Illness/disability in the East Riding 8-28 Table 8.22 - Residence of lower –income key workers 8-29 Table 8.23 - Tenure preferences of key workers 8-30 Table 8.24 - Population ethnicity in East Riding 8-31 Table 8.25 - Ethnicity and housing need 8-32 iii East Riding HMAS Final Report.doc East Riding of Yorkshire Housing Needs and Market Assessment List of Figures Figure 3.1 – Plan of East Riding and Neighbouring Authorities 3-2 Figure 3.2 – Housing Market Areas 3-6 Figure 3.3 - % of Migration from Goole to each sub area 3-8 Figure 3.4 - % of in Migration to Goole from each sub area 3-9 Figure 3.5 - % of out Commuting from Goole to each sub area 3-9 Figure 3.6 - % of Migration from Hull Borders to each sub area 3-10 Figure 3.7 - % of in Migration to Hull Borders from each sub area 3-11 Figure 3.8 - % of out Commuting from Hull Borders to each sub area 3-11 Figure 3.9 - % of Migration from Holderness to each sub area 3-12 Figure 3.10 - % of in Migration to Holderness from each sub area 3-13 Figure 3.11 - % of out Commuting from Holderness to each sub area 3-13 Figure 3.12 - % of Migration from Wolds to each sub area 3-14 Figure 3.13 - % of in Migration to Wolds from each sub area 3-15 Figure 3.14 - % of out Commuting from Wolds to each sub area 3-15 Figure 3.15 - % of Migration from Beverley to each sub area 3-16 Figure 3.16 - % of in Migration to Beverley from each sub area 3-17 Figure 3.17 - % of out Commuting from Beverley to each sub area 3-17 Figure 3.18 - % of Migration from Bridlington to each sub area 3-18 Figure 3.19 - % of in Migration to Bridlington from each sub area 3-19 Figure 3.20 - % of out Commuting from Bridlington to each sub area 3-19 Figure 4.1 – Demographic Structure of East Riding 2001 4-2 Figure 4.2 – Age Structure in East Riding 2001 4-3 Figure 4.3 – Percentage increase in population 1982-2002 4-4 Figure 4.4 – Proportion of People living at the same Address 2000-2001 4-5 Figure 4.5 – Household Type 4-8 Figure 4.6 – Working Age Population 4-9 Figure 4.7 - % Unemployed 2001 4-10 Figure 4.8 – Proportion of jobs by sector within each sub-area (2004) 4-11 Figure 4.9 – Occupation (% of those of Working Age) 4-12 Figure 6.1 – Average Property Prices – East Riding 6-2 Figure 6.2 – Average Property Prices Goole 6-3 Figure 6.3 – Average Property Prices – Hull Borders 6-5 Figure 6.4 – Average Property Prices - Holderness 6-7 Figure 6.5 – Average Property Prices - Wolds 6-8 Figure 6.6 – Average Property Prices - Beverley 6-10 Figure 6.7 – Average Property Prices - Bridlington 6-11 Figure 6.8 – Comparison of rural and urban house prices 6-12 iv East Riding HMAS Final Report.doc East Riding of Yorkshire Housing Needs and Market Assessment APPENDICES APPENDIX A – SUPPLY OF DWELLINGS APPENDIX B – LIST OF ESTATE AGENTS APPENDIX C – HOUSING NEEDS BY PARISH APPENDIX D – SUMMARY OF WORKSHOP v East Riding HMAS Final Report.doc East Riding of Yorkshire Housing Needs and Market Assessment GLOSSARY BME Black/Minority Ethnic Group CORE Continuous Recording System – organisation which collects housing statistics from Housing Associations and Local Authorities CRDP City Region Development Programme – refers to the CRDP for Hull which aims to regenerate the city DCLG Department for Communities and Local Government – new name for ODPM DETR Department for the Environment, Transport and the Regions (now DCLG) DPD Development Plan Document – prepared by local authorities and outlines the key development goals of the Local Development Framework DS Development Strategy Settlement – policy within East Riding and Kingston upon Hull Joint Structure Plan DTLR Department for Transport, Local Government and Regions (now DCLG) ERYC East Riding of Yorkshire Council GOYH Government Office for Yorkshire and the Humber – the Regional Office HA Housing Association HMR Housing Market Renewal – process of public sector intervention, in partnership with others, to sustain areas of low demand for housing, in this case, Hull HRA Housing Revenue Account – account displaying all income related to public sector housing Hull CC Kingston upon Hull City Council IMD Indices of Multiple Deprivation – quality of life indicator which includes employment, health, income, education, living environment and other factors IPG Interim Policy Guidance in this case for the Managed Release of Residential Development Site, produced in response to new national