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Are U.S. Student Loans the «Next Bubble»?

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Are U.S. Student Loans the «Next Bubble»? Are U.S. Student Loans the «Next Bubble»? Omar Abdel Rahman 1 April 2013 A thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Science in Management, Technology and Economics Accepted by Prof. Didier Sornette / Supervised by Dr. Peter Cauwels ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank Prof. Didier Sornette for the opportunity of writing this thesis under the supervision of the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks at ETH Zurich. Moreover, I thank Dr. Peter Cauwels for suggesting the very interesting, yet challenging topic and supervising the thesis; without his support for my ideas, his prompt availability for discussion and the flexibility he gave me, this work would have been much more difficult to conduct. Furthermore, I thank Mr. Rafael Mar- tinez and Ms. Sabrina Marchal from BNP Paribas Fortis in Brussels for the valuable discussion input in our phone conference and the frequent supply of new material regarding the topic which would have been very difficult to acquire otherwise. Last but not least, I thank Ms. Donna Bellflower and Mr. Daniel Pollard from the Operations Performance Division of the U.S. Department of Education in Washington for their detailed answers to my questions re- garding Federal student loans. DECLARATION I hereby declare that this written work is original work that I alone have authored and written in my own words. With the signature I declare that I have been informed regarding normal ac- ademic citation rules and that I have read and understood the information on ―Citation Eti- quette‖. The citation conventions usual to the discipline in question here have been respected. The work may be tested electronically for plagiarism. Omar Abdel Rahman Mendoza, 12 April 2013 REMARK The abbreviation n.d. used in many references stands for no date and is used mainly for websites and online data sources that do not have explicit publication dates. This is in accordance with the APA Style Guide Version 6, as explained at http://www.apastyle.org/learn/faqs/cite- website-material.aspx ABSTRACT The question of this thesis is the sustainability and potential adverse effects of the rapidly growing U.S. student loan debt that surpassed $1 trillion in outstanding debt in 2012. This is addressed through several sub-questions: (a) A broad overview of the U.S. higher educa- tion system shows how trends such as enrolment growth and tuition increases at universi- ties, inter alia, have led to the recently strongly increasing student loan borrowing. (b) A literature review and own calculations regarding the ―return on investment in education‖ show that higher education does pay off on average but that the heterogeneity of labour market outcomes renders returns negative for some groups. Consequently, student loan borrowing is highly risky, e.g. for those pursuing certain degree majors. (c) A comprehen- sive overview of the financial aid system for higher education and the outstanding loan portfolio, both of Federal and private student loans, concludes that the vast majority of the student loan credit risk is borne by the government and that the private sector influ- ence on student loans is diminishing due to a slowdown in private lending and a switch from guaranteed to direct Federal student loan lending. Therefore, the private market for securities backed by student loans is shrinking. (d) While different risk indicators all high- light a rising number of distressed borrowers, contrarian developments such as a lower general household indebtedness, the recent availability of income-based repayment and falling enrolments at risky for-profit institutions make predictions about future default rates very difficult. (e) A comparison between the current student loan and the pre-2008 mortgage markets along features such as lending procedures, government influence and market size concludes that student loans do not pose a systemic risk for the broader econ- omy in the same way mortgages did. Overall, the thesis concludes that a (hard to quantify) part of recent student loan borrowing was unsustainable given the labour market outlook for many graduates, but large losses on the lender side are very unlikely and developments on the borrower side (income based repayment, public scrutiny of for-profit education, a possible private student loan dischargeability etc.) suggest a trend reversal for current and future distressed borrowers. TABLE OF CONTENTS AKNOWLEDGMENTS ________________________________________________ 2 DECLARATION ______________________________________________________ 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS _______________________________________________ 4 MOTIVATION _______________________________________________________ 7 I – HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE UNITED STATES ____________________ 9 A Brief History _____________________________________________________________________ 9 The Current U.S. Education System ___________________________________________________ 11 Postsecondary Education ____________________________________________________________ 12 Vocational Education ______________________________________________________________ 13 Academic Degrees _________________________________________________________________ 14 Postsecondary Institutions ___________________________________________________________ 15 Admission _______________________________________________________________________ 16 Enrolment _______________________________________________________________________ 17 Institution Level and Control ________________________________________________________ 18 Revenues and Expenditures __________________________________________________________ 20 Cost of Attendance ________________________________________________________________ 22 II – RETURNS TO HIGHER EDUCATION _____________________________ 25 Labour Market Outcomes ___________________________________________________________ 25 Theories __________________________________________________________________________ 26 Human Capital Theory _____________________________________________________________ 27 Education Premium and Income Inequality ______________________________________________ 31 Lifetime Degree Value ______________________________________________________________ 32 Signalling ________________________________________________________________________ 36 Conclusion ______________________________________________________________________ 37 Broader Benefits of Higher Education _________________________________________________ 37 Private Benefits ___________________________________________________________________ 37 Positive Externalities _______________________________________________________________ 37 III – STUDENT AID MECHANICS _____________________________________ 39 Government Financial Aid Programmes ________________________________________________ 39 Aid Application and Financial Need ___________________________________________________ 40 Dependent vs. Independent Students __________________________________________________ 41 Pell Grants ______________________________________________________________________ 41 Other Grants and Tax Credits ________________________________________________________ 41 Stafford Loans____________________________________________________________________ 42 PLUS Loans _____________________________________________________________________ 43 Other Federal Loans _______________________________________________________________ 44 Consolidation Loans _______________________________________________________________ 44 Trends ___________________________________________________________________________ 45 TABLE OF CONTENTS Federal Student Loan Operations _____________________________________________________ 46 Grace and Repayment Plans _________________________________________________________ 46 Deferment and Forbearance _________________________________________________________ 48 Loan Forgiveness _________________________________________________________________ 48 Delinquency, Collection, Default, Rehabilitation __________________________________________ 49 FFEL Programme Specifics _________________________________________________________ 50 FDSL Programme Specifics _________________________________________________________ 52 Temporary Loan Purchase Authority __________________________________________________ 52 Federal Loan Portfolio ______________________________________________________________ 53 Federal Loan Funding ______________________________________________________________ 53 Subsidy Estimates _________________________________________________________________ 54 Outstanding Loans ________________________________________________________________ 57 Private Student Loan Specifics _______________________________________________________ 58 Lending ________________________________________________________________________ 59 Co-Signing ______________________________________________________________________ 60 Grace, Repayment, Deferment, Forbearance _____________________________________________ 61 Default and Consolidation __________________________________________________________ 62 Total Outstanding _________________________________________________________________ 62 Student Loan ABS __________________________________________________________________ 63 Credit Enhancement _______________________________________________________________ 64 ABS Risk Management _____________________________________________________________ 65 Market Overview _________________________________________________________________ 66 IV – STUDENT LOAN CREDIT RISK __________________________________ 68 Risk Indicators ____________________________________________________________________
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