Republic of Moldova, Between Geography and Geopolitics

Home , Andrian Candu, Pavel Filip

Foreign Policy Association together with Friedrich- Ebert-Stiftung offer you a newsletter on foreign policy and European integration issues of the Republic of Moldova. The newsletter is part of the “Foreign Policy Dialogue” joint Project. NEWSLETTER MONTHLY BULLETIN NOVEMBER 2018 NR.10 (152) Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates The newsletter is developed by Sorina Ştefârţă, editor-coordinator

TOPICS OF THE EDITION: 1. Igor Dodon, President of the Republic of Moldova: ”In the field of foreign policy, I will insist on balance in the relations with the West and the East” 2. Editorial by Victoria Bucătaru, Executive director, Foreign Policy Association:“The more ways, the less Euro-integration” 3. Anatolie Golea, political analyst:“The 24th February elections could be contested way before the Election Day”

News in Brief The Republic of Moldova reconfirms the support and recognition of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, as well as its right to use international Republic of Moldova, between waters. This is the position expressed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration in Chisinau on Monday, November 26, on the conflict that broke out the previous day at the Azov Sea between Russia and Ukraine. Also the Parliament Speaker Andrian Candu strongly condemned Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine: “I urge the international community to apply geography and geopolitics all instruments of international law to prevent the escalation of the situation in the Kerch Strait area. We are sympathising with Ukraine and are supporting its right to use territorial waters according to the international law norms” wrote the speaker on his Facebook, on Monday. The same day, November 26, several global actors expressed concern about events in the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait, with the involvement of Russian and Ukrainian navy. The Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko urged Russia to immediately “release” the Ukrainian navy men and their captured ships, while the Kiev Supreme Rada met the request of the head of state to impose Martial Law in the neighbouring country Ukraine.

The real rapprochement between the Republic of Moldova and Romania is done through concrete projects, in the interests of the citizens of our states”, Prime Minister Pavel Filip said at a joint meeting of the two countries’ governments. He particularly appreciated Romania’s support in implementing the reforms and continuing the European path of our country. In the context of the bilateral agenda, Pavel Filip and his counterpart, Viorica Dăncilă, reviewed the successful joint projects on the social and cultural-humanitarian dimension: renovation of hundreds of kindergartens in the Republic of Moldova, donation of school buses, renovation of the Organ Hall, the National Art Museum in Chisinau, and the “B. P. Haşdeu” Theatre from Cahul. At the same time, the two officials mentioned that, Kerch Strait, 25 November 2018. Only 800 km distance from Chisinau... for a greater rapprochement between our countries, there is a need to speed up the projects aimed at interconnection of the electronic communications, energy and transport infrastructure. In this respect, Sorina Ștefârță On Sunday, November 25, was in the morning ... Prime Ministers Pavel Filip and Viorica Dăncilă insisted this world was focused For in the evening of the on the need to launch the second phase of the construction of the Ungheni-Chisinau pipeline and The last week of autumn on Brexit. Meanwhile, in same day – November to start the projects for building the bridges over the th Prut River. has shown us once again an extraordinary meeting 25 - the world was again

At the same meeting, the two Cabinets of Ministers that things in the world of the EU Council in thinking of war as a result agreed on a roadmap for the implementation of joint projects, and setting deadlines and responsibilities for often evolve faster and Brussels, the leaders of the confrontation each sector. The agreed documents include agreements in a different way than of the 27 EU member between the Russian and on cooperation in the field of tourism; education and culture; assistance and consular protection for we would imagine. And states (without London, the Ukrainian military persons with dual citizenship; health and medical science; relations with the diaspora; promotion of the fact the world is big already) approved the navy, produced on the entrepreneurship, economic and corporate cooperation; promotion of cooperation in business on third markets; doesn’t mean it does not agreement on the exit of Azov Sea in the Kerch creation/ activity of joint patrol teams at the common state border, etc. Also, a Joint Declaration on the lifting affect us... the United Kingdom from Strait. In the evening of of roaming charges was signed. the European Union. That the following day, the

Verkhovna Rada in Kiev approved the Decree of the Ukrainian In the field of foreign policy, I will President Petro Poroshenko, which had imposed Martial Law in Ukraine, including in the regions of Odessa and insist on balance in the relations Vinnitsa, neighbouring Transnistria ...

What is happening in Chisinau in with the West and the East relation to these global and regional developments? Chisinau is busy with ... Igor Dodon, President of the Republic of Moldova elections, to quote the political analyst Anatolie Golea - and this consumes all Mr President, it has just been two our time. What else is happening? - years since you became head of state. delayed reactions or traditional silence. How would you characterize this For example, President Klaus Iohannis period? What are the successes and seemed to be pleased with the Brexit failures - of yours, of the country, and of Agreement, on the grounds that the the society? “rights of the Romanians” are protected. We are silent - perhaps because we These two years have been an don’t have cousins in England, or important period, which de facto perhaps simply because they don’t vote paved the way for the next stage - the for “the right people”… As for the recent takeover of the governance by the socialist and ‘statalist’ left at the next Russian-Ukrainian tensions, in addition parliamentary elections. From 2014 to the fact that the officials’ reactions onwards, the socialists have obtained were quite late, they didn’t answer the step by step a strong fraction in question which, let’s admit, is worrying Parliament, then a large fraction in the everybody: what is going to happen in n November 13 this year, there Chisinau Municipal Council, then the the case it happens?.. Owere two years since the Socialist country’s president. We are also going leader Igor Dodon became President to get the parliamentary majority in President Igor Dodon, who marked two of the Republic of Moldova as a result 2019 and then things in the country years in office in November, is the key of a universal ballot organized after will change very quickly and for the protagonist of the current edition of a 16-year break (when the head of better. As far as my successes as head the newsletter. He is optimistic about state was elected by Parliament). Like of state are concerned, I presented the Moldovan foreign policy, especially two years ago, when the difference them all in a comprehensive activity due to the concept of balance in was made by few percent, Igor Dodon report a few months ago. The next relations with the East and the West remains a personality adored by one report will be made public at the that he strongly committed to promote part of the population and challenged end of December and will provide a in the relations with the country’s by another, also because of his often- comprehensive review of these two partners. tough message in relation to the West, years of activity. against the background of a very It’s a geopolitical approach that has the warm relationship with Moscow. At I am the president of all those right to life. Only the geography tells us the same time, Igor Dodon says he had who want a Moldova which is a balanced external position in these some figures, e.g. that London is 2600 ‘statalist’, neutral, territorially kilometres away from Chisinau, Kiev – years, restoring the “friendship with 500 km, and Kerci - just 800km. If we Russia” and opting for “a balance in integral, Christian, and think we are far away and things there relations with the East and the West”. balanced... don’t affect us... blessed we are. But it Read in the interview below about the is important to remember that Tiraspol foreign policy and the role that the To what extent have you succeeded is only at 70km distance from Chisinau. head of state intends to play in the in becoming a president for all? If so, in coming years in this respect. which way? If not, why not?

For all those who want a Moldova those who jeopardize the security and imbalance in the export and import which is ‘statalist’, neutral, territorially integrity of their countries - you will see markets, to the detriment of the integral, Christian, balanced, and the that we still have a long way to reach the domestic producer. The situation has heart of the Moldovan people? I think degree of “tolerance” of the authorities to be corrected, because thousands of I have become the president of those of those states in similar cases... If you Moldovan producers bear enormous people. And I also believe that many of are trying to be the advocate of the losses every year. So, we will get back the citizens who once had only right- sexual minorities, I urge you to tell me to the agreement when we get the wing, pro-European and unionist options in which way homosexuals, the LGBT parliamentary majority in 2019, and appreciate my actions and gestures in movement contribute in general to the there is no doubt that, following the the area of domestic and foreign policy. internal cohesion of our country? Or, on negotiations with Brussels, it is going to be Being a president for all is an intention, the contrary, to what extent does my re-drafted and adapted to the economic a way, a commitment as a head of state, promotion of the values of the traditional needs of the Republic of Moldova. and an objective I’ve always followed, family constitute an act of intolerance even though nowhere in the world this vis-à-vis those minorities? You can do it Otherwise, with regard to the objective has been ever and by anyone in writing in any article on your portals fight against the oligarchy and the 100% fulfilled ... I would also like to if you have any arguments and desire relationship of the Presidency with mention that before I took the office of for it. I reiterate: I will continue to firmly the executive and legislative powers, head of state, but especially after that, advocate for our statehood and territorial everyone saw it that in my capacity I’ve had hundreds of meetings with integrity and for the values of the as head of state I opposed whenever the citizens of the Republic of Moldova traditional family. It is my right as a citizen it was possible the initiatives that I - during my visits in the raions and and my duty as the country’s president to considered inappropriate. Although my villages of the country, in the context protect these values against any threats legal powers have been reduced, I have of communication with the diaspora, whether “minority” or not. taken political stance and have stood when I was abroad - I have responded to firmly against the abusive actions of the multiple concrete, social and economic We will return to the Agreement Democratic government in power, with demands. And today I am emotionally in 2019 when we get the whom I’ve had many confrontations. It pleased that I could meet most of those is precisely because of my opposition requests. So, ask those citizens if I am parliamentary majority to the government - as much as my their president and you will get the most Have you succeeded or not to fulfil powers have allowed me – that I’ve objective answer. your key commitments such as fighting been suspended several times with the the oligarchy or denouncing the help of the Government and the docile In this context, to what extent do your Association Agreement with the EU? Constitutional Court… critical and sometimes even intolerant What have been the reforms that you attitude towards certain categories of have focused on over these years and In addition, if you look at the agenda of persons or minority groups contribute where, de facto, have you been ignored this legislature, you will find out that most to the internal cohesion of our country? by the executive and legislative powers? of the social and economic initiatives of the Socialist MPs have been rejected If you refer to the virulent Cancellation of the Association by the pro-European parliamentary unionists, to those who advocate for Agreement with the EU has not been majority solely on political grounds and the disappearance of the Republic announced as an objective in the despite the fact they were very useful of Moldova through its territorial presidential election campaign. In for citizens. There are dozens of projects annexation, I declare that in my attitude addition, it is also outside the remit of ... So, obviously, with such an approach towards them I only respect the the presidential institution. Personally, of the majority, we only have to wait for Constitution of the country and fulfil my however, I have expressed on several the time when we finally remove it from political duties of being the guarantor occasions my critical position on several power. I think you will agree with me that of sovereignty and of protecting the components of this Agreement, in over the last years the government has authenticity of the Moldovan people. particular, on the economic aspect. compromised itself definitively and that, The major problem of the Agreement despite all the administrative levers and By the way, I would advise you to is that it was unconditionally accepted media sources it has benefited from, it investigate how “tolerant” Romanians, without taking into account the interests has failed to increase its social support. Hungarians or Spaniards are towards of our country. This has led to a serious This creates serious prerequisites for

Monthly Bulletin, Nr. 10 (152), November 2018 64, Sciusev str. MD-2012, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Tel-Fax: +373 22 21 09 86 Website: www.ape.md E-mail: [email protected] NOVEMBER 2018 4Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates the change of power on February 24 - a On the Transnistrian issue, it is Moreover, similar signals are being change that we all want. wise that we are working with sent also by countries in the West. But the main geopolitical actors it depends a lot on the political will At the meeting with the in Chisinau if we use this window of representatives of the diplomatic corps opportunity or not. How pleased are you with the latest accredited in Chisinau in early October, developments in the Transnistrian you reiterated your conviction that What will be your position in the settlement? Could the unfreezing of the the foreign policy of the Republic of event of a new federalization project relations with Ukraine bring a positive Moldova has to be equally balanced for the Republic of Moldova, as many element in the dialogue with Tiraspol? with the East and the West. How experts say it is in the making in the are you ensuring this balance, in the Kremlin? What about the Russian Some tensions have disappeared and situation where the paths have led military presence? past animosities have been diminished you to the East? What should be our in the Chisinau-Tiraspol relations. priorities in the East/ the West? First of all, federalization, as a system And in such conflicts, it is positive of state organization, is a concept of old when things do not get worse and the I was present there, where the traditions that was successfully applied a regions sop moving away from each Republic of Moldova most needed few centuries ago. Let us remember that other. And I want to assure you that, me, where the serious foreign federalists contributed to the founding in these years, some Transnistrian policy mistakes made by the current of the United States of America. alienation processes have been stopped. Democratic government had to be Switzerland, and Russia, even Germany The role of the Russian Federation is corrected. I reiterate that if I hadn’t (where your organization resides) are especially important here as well as been personally and seriously involved federative countries and it is not ruled the fact that Ukraine has understood it in restoring the good relations with the out that certain European countries is better to contribute to maintaining Russian Federation, our country would with regions requiring broad autonomy the Transnistrian region in the sphere have had huge economic and social will choose the federalization path. of influence of Chisinau. At my first losses. However, I have managed to So, it would be better not to turn the meeting with the Kiev senior officials relaunch a large part of our exports to federalization idea into an ideological on this issue, I will present my vision Russia as well as to achieve amnesty scarecrow as such an approach cannot regarding further developments in the for tens and thousands of Moldovan be embraced by any serious and Transnistrian settlement. I am convinced migrants working in this country. Also, objective analytical or journalistic that the Ukrainian side will appreciate we have maintained an agreeable centers ... Then any such project - how I will present the perspectives. level of Moldovan-Russian diplomatic federalization or whatever it may be relations and we have identified new called- will have to be accepted and Will you continue to deny Russia’s dimensions for economic cooperation approved both by Chisinau and Tiraspol. status as aggressor state in the 1992 in the near future. We had important So, again, it is not right to insinuate that conflict in the Republic of Moldova and meetings also with the Western leaders Moscow is imposing it on us. Nobody in the current conflict in Ukraine? in the EU. I’ve been received on an imposes anything, and, in general, we official visit by the Pope of Rome, who is are not the old ones to accept such Throwing stones is a matter of the the leading moral authority of the West polices either by the East or the West ... past. Now it is time to collect the stones and I had bilateral talks with the French As far as my position as head of state is and to understand the importance President Emmanuel Macron, who concerned, I am going to support those of this as a society. We can no longer invited me to visit France officially. We projects that will ensure a smooth, afford to live with the past, and if we have established very positive and warm organic and realistic integration of the want to solve some fundamental state relations with the Turkish leader Recep Transnistrian region into the country’s problems such as the Transnistrian one Tayyip Erdogan. Those who are following body. it is wise that we work positively and my presidential work may notice that I efficiently with the main geopolitical am striving to maintain regular dialogue actors that can help us. One of them is About the case of Turkish with representatives and various political the Russian Federation and I want to tell teachers ask SIS and the leaders in various Western countries. My you with all responsibility that today it wish is to ensure a balance in the foreign parliamentary majority wants complete and peaceful resolution policy of the Republic of Moldova, to in accordance with the international correct the imbalance created in 2009 by In October you attended the Erevan framework of the Transnistrian conflict. the Euro-union governments. Francophonie Summit and in November

Monthly Bulletin, Nr. 10 (152), November 2018 64, Sciusev str. MD-2012, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Tel-Fax: +373 22 21 09 86 Website: www.ape.md E-mail: [email protected] NOVEMBER 2018 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates 5 you went to Paris at the invitation of subordination behaviour which is (SIS), a structure subordinated to the Elisee tenant. What was this visit compromising for the sovereignty of the Parliament. For, as early as December about? What did you discuss with Mr. Republic of Moldova. Ironically, all these 2016, the SIS was abusively transferred Emmanuel Macron - a convinced pro- governments have disappointed mostly from the subordination of the head European and a devoted promoter of the Westerners. of state to that of the so-called pro- individual freedoms? European parliamentary majority in For the next year I have several goals order to prevent me from any control Both in Erevan and in Paris I talked that I’m going to announce at the over this very important institution. not only with Emmanuel Macron, right time. We need also to take into but also with other important heads account the impact of the parliamentary Ever since September I asked for the of state, including the US President elections whose results may seriously most complete information on this case Donald Trump. Generally speaking, influence my political emphasis in 2019. to inform myself on all the premises the spectrum of the dialogue is vast So it’s early to give details ... Certainly and arguments that have led to such and addresses aspects specific to the the statehood, the resolution of the a tough gesture towards the Turkish relations between the Republic of Transnistrian problem, promotion of citizens, but not even today can I say Moldova and the countries represented a balanced foreign policy, interethnic I have complete knowledge of the by the leaders I am discussing with. One conciliation, protection of the Christian situation. So, I recommend that you of the key issues I am addressing is, of and of the traditional family values will read the questions to those who control course, the territorial reunification of always remain in the top of my priorities. today the force bodies in the Republic our country through the final settlement By the way, we declared 2019 the Year of of Moldova, including the SIS, the so- of the Transnistrian issue in a format the Family and we are going to develop called pro-European parliamentary that excludes any forced scenario and a very serious national programme to majority, in order to learn from them corresponds fully to the international support families, promote natality, and how it happened that the SIS which is standards and practices. I want to assure good education of children. entirely subordinated to the parliament you that this issue arouses vivid interest organized such an operation in such a among all country leaders, whether from The drama of Turkish teachers style. Europe and pro-European ones, from from the “Orizont” High School may Eurasia or from more distant realms. accompany you both internally and Obviously, I addressed the issue during externally. How are you going to the visit to Chisinau of the President What is on your external relations manage this problem that you are Recep Erdogan. He told me that was a agenda? What will be the priorities accused of by a part of the society secret service investigation. Therefore, of the Presidency and to what extent and that you claim not to be your please don’t seek direct or indirect will they be synchronized with the responsibility? Did you discuss this issue links between the aforementioned case Government priorities? during your meeting with the Turkish and the renovation of the Presidency President Recep Erdogan who has building, which was destroyed on 7 April In recent months, I have made my visited Chisinau recently? 2009 by the pro-European and unionist stance on foreign policy very clear forces in a coup attempt. Renovation - balance in relations with the West I have already answered this question, of the building was officially discussed and the East. Let us re-establish good but I see that I have to repeat myself. in 2017 during the Moldovan-Turkish relations with the Russian Federation Unfortunately, some citizens and dialogue and is an initiative of the (seriously damaged by the Euro-unionist even media have become victims of Turkish side, in particular, of the Turkish governments) and at the same time manipulations launched in the public President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. keep our partnerships with the Western space right after the Turkish citizens countries in a mutually respectable were detained. In reality, the Presidency In order not to split the society format. You probably realize that has nothing to do with the detention and create confusion, May 9 such a foreign policy priority doesn’t and expulsion of teachers, and any correspond to the Government strategy accusations against the presidential should be the Victory Day which, on the contrary, is promoting a institution - such as violation of human furious propaganda campaign against rights or hidden arrangements with In the autumn, at the meeting of the Russia and burning enough bridges to Turkish officials - are totally groundless. CIS Heads of State Council in Dushanbe, the East that I’m trying to restore. And I also want to remind you that the you spoke of the need for a strategy in the relationship with the West all the detention operation was carried out by for a “common Europe from Lisbon governments since 2009 had a servant, the Security and Intelligence Service to Vladivostok.” Is it about bringing

Europe to the CIS or expanding CIS in parliamentary elections? What are the Both the “pro-Moldova” doctrine and Europe? minimum and maximum goals? the idea of the referendum for reducing the number of MPs as well as other initiatives Let’s just not limit ourselves to clichés, I think the things may develop along of the PDM, including those of the Chisinau especially when it comes to geopolitics. three basic scenarios. According to the Municipal Council, is direct plagiarism of If it was possible a few decades ago to first scenario, which is very likely, the either the PSRM projects or mine as head of bring together different countries and Socialists take over the government state. This means the democrats are in crisis regions in the EU format, why cannot with their own forces and assume the of ideas, do not have their own consistent we admit that in the future it will be leadership of the state according to political vision, no longer enjoy the support possible to build an enlarged geopolitical the priorities they announced at the of the right-wing electorate, which is why space common to the EU and the November 18th Assembly, when tens they are trying to expand to the left. De CIS, without any of these entities to of thousands of people approved the facto, the honesty of the PDM is very easy be assimilated by the other one and programmatic, socioeconomic and to test through two or three concrete disappear? I have referred namely to political theses proposed by PSRM. The questions. If you are pro-Moldova, do you such an extended project that doesn’t second scenario is about a new Euro- accept the “History of Moldova” course in have a center of gravity at one or Unionist coalition with the support and schools? Do you accept to ban by law the another pole, but operates on the basis direct pressure of the West, as it was in anti-state and anti-Moldovan unionism? of parity, respect and mutual interest. 2009-2010 and 2014. A kind of AEI 4. This Do you agree to leave intact the art. 13 of means creating a post-election coalition the Moldovan Constitution on Moldovan In this context - and in the context of between PDM, PAS, and PDA. For there language, a language spoken by most the law you announced you are going were situations before when right-wing Moldovans? to promulgate - do you really think that parties fought between themselves 9 May as Europe Day excludes 9 May before the elections, pretending to be I am afraid we will receive negative as Victory Day? Perhaps, instead of irreconcilable enemies, and then created answers to these questions, because splitting, this day could be a day of civic “concrete alliances.” After all, the third in reality, the Democrats are just unification? scenario involves early elections, in camouflaging themselves, borrowing the event that neither the Socialists ideas from others in order to be more In order not to create division and separately nor PDM + PAS + PDA succeed attractive before elections. But who confusion and not to hurt the feelings of in forming the Government. The fate of else believes them?! All their electoral hundreds of thousands of people who such early elections is hard to predict, but support is due to the administrative associate the 9th of May with holy memories I am absolutely convinced that the PSRM leverages they exert on officials, but in of relatives who went through the war will have an improved electoral result, elections people will vote as they know, and of victory and liberation from fascism, because the people are fed up with the not as dictated from above. and precisely in order not to undo the chaos, with the anti-social governments importance of a deep-rooted holiday and of the Euro-Unionists, and with all sorts of How do you see the country you are replace it with another for which there are conjuncture coalitions. leading but also the world in two years’ no collective feelings yet, I did not agree to time, at least at the end of your first promulgate this law. May 9th is the Victory So if it is to answer the question directly, presidential term? Day, the day that symbolizes the struggle of the maximum goal is to take over the our grandparents and grand grandparents government with a majority of the Moldova has a future! Here’s the against the fascists, at the cost of so many Socialists in the legislative forum, while forecast for two or twenty years, or human lives, so many injured and grieving the minimum goal is to have sufficient decades and decades ahead. I hope victims ... And it is neither ethical nor moral mandates and enough influence to people’s life will be more decent, and to diminish the exclusiveness of this holiday prevent a new, disastrous Euro-unionist there will be more people at home, and by doubling or tripling it with other holidays Alliance for the Republic of Moldova. the country will start the process of on the same day. territorial integration, the society will act The new “pro-Moldova” doctrine in solidarity and reconciliation with itself For the upcoming elections, our announced on October 21st this year by and with others. I hope it is so and we goal is to take over the government PDM seems to be inspired by the PSRM will be working for that. messages. Is this change of optics an electoral threat to your party? How do Thank you for the interview. What are your plans, your strategy you explain this turn of the PDM - if we and your expectations from the 2019 can call it a turn? Sorina Ștefârță

Victoria Bucătaru, light prey for those who have obscure Executive director, Foreign Policy interests and need a bridge to attack the Association country’s immediate neighbours: Romania and Ukraine. The East-West controversy in the public discourse of the political elites in Chisinau Romania is the first gateway to Europe is finally taking new shape after years of for East Europeans, and due to its NATO wondering how to handle the geopolitical membership, it is also the main fortress factor and influences. De facto, the insular that provides regional and European policy of the Republic of Moldova which security. Ukraine, in turn, being neither is currently promoted and which bears an a member of the EU nor of NATO and authoritarian character, relying on serious having a direct border with the “big democratic slippages, seems to have bear”, became, on the one hand, its first changed its narrative. Moreover, today and easiest victim, and on the other we speak less about the European or Eurasian way, invoking hand, the original protection shield for us as well as for the instead the “Pro-Moldova” course - the “fourth way”... European Union. De facto, the recent clashes between the Russian Federation and Ukraine in the Black Sea Basin, the Less than a decade has passed since the Republic of Moldova disputes over the Kerch Strait and the Azov Sea are just a welcomed in Chisinau the exponents of the great Euro- few consequences of the less efficient management of the Atlantic powers, showing major interest in taking over the situation in 2014, which has led to the annexation of the values and the functioning principles of the democratic states Crimea. The East-West controversy, as well as the geopolitical with tradition. The visits of Chancellor Angela Merkel and influences, no longer have a theoretical or intellectual interest, Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden, have not only but turn into profound existential problems with state survival astonished the society, which was still accustomed to the notes. Russian leaders (who, by the way, still have top positions in Moldovan preferences), but also have offered the hope of a Existential is also the state of affairs of the Republic of democratic transition that could be completed. But it wasn’t to Moldova, which in times of regional or international crises, happen, unfortunately, as things started to degrade. chooses to aggravate its situation through the inability to formulate its needs, but also to strategically manage the Moreover, the recent visits of the Belarusian leader Aleksandr relations with its partners ready to offer their assistance. Lukashenko and of the Turkish President Recep Erdoğan - who Leaving aside the relationship with the EU, we recall that in somehow substituted the Euro-Atlantic leaders that seem 2014 there was no common voice of the Chisinau authorities, to have refused to come to Chisinau - do change the reality. political elites of our country, condemning the annexation There can be various reasons for that: from unreformed of the Crimea. And there is still no common voice, after four political elites and society with deep Soviet convictions to years, to condemn the assaults in the Black Sea basin. the disillusion of colour or “social media” revolutions. That we cannot know exactly. But one thing is certain now: in the It is difficult to understand where this is the internal politics course of a few months, the pro-European message has been or foreign policy, or geopolitical calculations, or simple distorted and excluded from internal and external policy geostrategic assumptions. However, it is rather clear that this priorities. The consequences are clear - we are progressively is about personal preferences or group interests and even moving away from the European dream, we are becoming political interests. And it is also clear this has nothing to do even more vulnerable and, as a result, we are turning into a with the sense of representativeness of people.

Monthly Bulletin, Nr. 10 (152), November 2018 64, Sciusev str. MD-2012, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Tel-Fax: +373 22 21 09 86 Website: www.ape.md E-mail: [email protected] NOVEMBER 2018 8Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates The 24th February elections could be contested way before the Election Day Anatolie Golea, political analyst

natolie Golea is a reference name failure to recognize the elections for the Ain the field of political expertise Chisinau mayoralty is a decision of the in the Republic of Moldova and a judiciary and not one of the government commentator (and executive director) – more young people say they will be of the Infotag news agency, who leaving the country. And some of them has accustomed us, every weekend, are already doing it... So I find it difficult for quite some years already, to his to say what is happening today in the interviews with representatives of the Republic of Moldova. The politicians are domestic political class. It happens at preparing for elections, that’s what’s the talk-show “Friday with Anatolie happening. And until then, there are still Golea” on the RTR Moldova, one of the a few things that the government needs few Russian-language TV programmes to sort out. that is trying to present the viewers with a different perspective on the The Governance is continuing to political phenomena in our country. defy the development partners About these phenomena and their “interpretation” I have found out with Romania, the pro-European and the What are these things? from Anatoly Golea himself in this pro-Euro-Asian - finally end up in a single interview... way: leaving the country in search of a First of all, the capital amnesty (it is better life. And I’m afraid the fourth way until February 1 in order to manage until Mr. Golea, what are your thoughts is not different from the other three, the elections); privatizations (possibly about back home after the talk show? because it will lead us nowhere. The there will be more than “Air Moldova”); What do your guests, the future news that the pace of migration of the the small tax reform that came into force candidates for the parliament, say country has slowed down is no longer on 1 October (we will see it later what - where is the Republic of Moldova relevant, even if we admit they are true. the consequences at the macro-financial heading to? Because in the case of a three-million level will be, but for people and the population, there is simply no one left to economy it is beneficial) or the wage I have the impression that they too migrate. increases on 1 December (although don’t know exactly where the Republic such reforms are normally implemented of Moldova is going to and precisely People are continuing to leave the from 1 January). The effects of the latter because of this they are trying to invent country - and the first picture is the one will only be felt after the New Year, so new ways of developing the country, of a family with four children that the precisely closer to the election day. strategies, even doctrines, although TVs have reported about in their news. Where from will they get money after the word “doctrines” is too much said. Six people at once! the elections? I do not know - I don’t Doctrines have been just a few in history rule out that they are acting according to and saying that you have launched a I’ve also seen the news and it speaks “either we win or ... after elections come doctrine is, at least, ambitious. The about people’s (un) trust in what is what may”. But for now, I think these Republic of Moldova should have other happening here. I’m following this reforms that have been well thought out ambitions - to defend its citizens, to exodus on the basis of social networks in terms of party strategy will have their create decent living conditions at home and above all, based on the reaction say in the electoral process. so that the people don’t leave the of young people. After every defiant country. Because all these ways the gesture of the government - and you However, these “well-thought-out” governors speak about - the unification cannot say it, for example, that the strategies are equally well-criticized

Monthly Bulletin, Nr. 10 (152), November 2018 64, Sciusev str. MD-2012, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Tel-Fax: +373 22 21 09 86 Website: www.ape.md E-mail: [email protected] NOVEMBER 2018 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates 9 by the European partners on whom on capital amnesty, the citizenship by talks only about collaboration with the at least formally, the government is investments, and so on. So there is no East and the West. This message is being relying on. Is it rational to put so much doubt that the stake is the election and promoted almost daily. emphasis on party strategies and to maintaining power. The new coalition ignore everything else? and the government will be formed Europe from Vladivostok to Lisbon no earlier than at the end of April, with the centre of gravity in Chisinau... The current government has and in May elections will take place in consciously damaged the relations with the European Parliament, with all the Yes, the presidency has been the European partners - relationships processes stemming from it: the new improvising a lot lately ... But getting that have been meticulously built for EU Legislature, the new composition of back to the ‘pro-Moldova’ I think the years ... When they tried but failed the European Commission, etc. In the Democratic Party has tried to take to find common language on the autumn, at best, Brussels will remember over this message because it seemed modification of the electoral system, about the Republic of Moldova. And to be less compromised. For neither they neglected completely the opinion here the stake I think is simple. They will the Socialists nor the Communists of the Venice Commission, the OSCE, go to Brussels and say, “Look, we are have compromised this idea insofar as the European Union and of all other the government chosen by the people. the so-called European parties have development partners. I have the Let’s start from a white page, start from compromised the European course or feeling that it was then that they made scratch. We stopped the coming of the unionist parties have compromised the decision: our goal is to win the Russian tanks, we didn’t allow Dodon the unionist idea. In addition, this election and we will see it after what to ride on a white horse in Chisinau fourth way is also a stretched hand we can do about it. And we could see and Moldova, it is us that the people to Igor Dodon, who has said that the what followed after - harsh statements, chose and it is with us that you need to Socialists can only create coalitions with cancelling of the electoral results in negotiate. And it is also desirable to give ‘pro-Moldova” parties. Now Dodon has Chisinau. They actually got their feet us money”. obviously also changed saying the PDM in the door: we don’t recognize it and is not genuinely “pro-Moldova”. Let’s that’s it!.. And that happened when This “Pro-Moldova” was wait and see, but these two parties have we had perhaps the most sympathetic originally the Communists’ idea somewhat met each other halfway. Igor and correct elections, applauded for Dodon says they are open to cooperate having succeeded in detaching from the Phantasmagorical stakes, as if there is with both the East and the West; PDM geopolitical message. But this foot in the no memory in Brussels. By the way, why says they are “pro-Moldova”, which door was a defiance of both domestic did Igor Dodon allow to be deprived of means the same thing... But how the and foreign public opinion. the ‘pro-Moldova’ idea as originally this things are going to change after the has been his idea? elections and where they will get the It is true that in the EU, today, no money to cover the expenses which are discussion on the Republic of Moldova This ‘pro-Moldova’ was originally really very high, nobody knows that. takes place without reminding us of the Communists’ idea. Well back in the cancellation of results of the local 2008, PCRM included in the party’s Perhaps, from the investments by elections. The most recent proof to that statute that they had to achieve the citizenship... is the November 14 Resolution of the European modernization of the Republic European Parliament. of Moldova according to European We do not know and I’m afraid standards. This meant ‘pro-Moldova’. we will not find out who are the de The Resolution from 14 November Afterwards, on August 27, 2017, on facto beneficiaries of this initiative. is a logical continuation of the one Independence Day, Igor Dodon came Sometimes I have the impression it has from 5 July. Very tough, both confirm up with a pro-Moldova prominent been adopted for some well-known once more that the 100 million euros message, which, in his opinion, meant people who had to legalise their capital. - which, for a year or so is coming and statehood, neutrality and Euro-Asian In the EU, during about five-year period, not longer coming to Chisinau - will only integration, but also openness to the about 6,000 people have been granted come here provided we pass the test of West. Because after 2016, when he citizenship by investment in countries the next elections. For the time being, won the presidential seat, promising to such as Great Britain, Malta, Cyprus, however, the government continues to denounce the Association Agreement which provide some serious fiscal defy the development partners – it has with the European Union, Igor Dodon is facilities. That is why, personally, I don’t adopted the small tax reform, the law no longer talking about denunciation. He think they will be queuing to receive the

citizenship of the Republic of Moldova. in her message in Tbilisi at the end of for two years at least... But seriously, Probably there will be Arabs, some the summer when she spoke about I do not think the socialists aren’t Russians... Probably a certain amount of “different type of relations” with the EU sufficiently visible. On the contrary, money is going to come, but that will not for Georgia and Ukraine. This “silence” they act very well on their traditional be that significant as to save the budget. speaks volumes- we risk to become segments in the territory. In Chisinau, This is going to be the concern of the even more “unobserved” for a longer for example, they build playgrounds and next government, which will also be with time. It is much harder to restore the sports grounds as well as lay asphalt in the PDM participation. relationships than to ruin them. But the yards and streets on the municipal it seems that no one has thought of it budget, the PSRM candidates being What could and should this when, out of big urgency, they altered present everywhere. The candidates for government do in order to improve at the electoral system, an action followed the Parliamentary elections have already least a little bit its image externally? by more and more derogations from been announced, which is a violation Could adherence to the Magnitsky Pact democratic norms. as the election campaign is starting be a solution, for example? only on December 24th. The candidates Instead, they are trying to are already in the territory, working I do not think a gesture of this kind demonstrate their attachment to the with people. The Democratic Party, would mean anything. European idea through referendums on to my surprise, has not nominated its this subject... candidates yet. It seems they think it is Moldova’s file exists, it’s not too early and that we are going to have going to disappear and nobody The initiative of the speaker Andrian very many surprises until the elections. Candu’s on a referendum on European Very many. is going to tear sheets from it integration was more of a blackmail against other pro-European parties. PDM Elections could be invalidated You’ve mentioned the Chisinau’s stake understands it very well that a possible by local courts anywhere in starting everything from scratch in referendum on this issue in the February the relationship with the EU after the 2019 elections could be a disaster for Do you mean controversial and European elections in May. How easy is PDM as well. That would mean to throw dubious candidates? Is this a surprise, to get a “carte blanche”? the ball in the court of Igor Dodon since we already have a condemned and of the Socialist Party, who would mayor and everyone is happy? I don’t believe it, but it seems enormously want such a poll in order to the political technologists of the mobilize the anti-European electorate We are going to have dubious Democratic Party do. I often speak in elections. So I think this initiative was candidates, that’s what I think. And, with the Europeans, who are smiling ad hoc announced in Parliament, after in the given context, I don’t rule out diplomatically hearing such ideas. which, in two days’ time, at the “great that on February 24, 2019, we could The file of the Republic of Moldova national assembly of the Democrats” on face an absolutely new situation when exists, it’s not going to disappear and October 21, nothing was said about the the elections will not be monitored by nobody is going to tear sheets from referendum. And I think they will never international bodies seriously on the it; all the “achievements” are going to talk about it... By the way, when Mr voting day, because they are going to remain intact. Also in Brussels, with the Candu made the announcement about be recognized as fraudulent before elections, the mid-level officials will not the referendum, he didn’t mention the that. It is going to happen if integrity change - so they will remember who, word “consultative”. Instead, Mr. Dodon certificates are not issued to certain what, how and why they did in Chisinau. did. candidates, others are not registered, In addition, I am convinced that the new while candidates such as Ilan Shor will composition of the European Parliament What should Igor Dodon do to propel be admitted. I feel that by February will be much more Eurosceptic, and himself? For speaking in terms of 24th lots of strange, antidemocratic more careful with the money for the image, the Democratic Party seems to and anti-European things are going to EU neighbours. So it is going to be a be more visible now. happen, like in the story of the “Open lot harder and the “carte blanche” is Dialogue” which tells us that if it is not not going to help us. Remember, for Well, the Socialists organized a protest removed from the electoral race, the example, how elegantly Chancellor on November 18th in Chisinau against Opposition will surely be harassed. In Angela Merkel treated us with silence the oligarchs they have been fighting addition, a very dangerous precedent

was created at the Chisinau mayoral that no European commissioners or Russian-Ukrainian military escalation? elections, when a de facto validated vote officials from Brussels or Strasbourg was cancelled. Let us imagine what can have visited Moldova recently. At the The Moldovan diplomacy has reacted. happen in the 51 constituencies! We will same time, Mr Dodon’s visits are not so Prime Minister Pavel Filip and Speaker not even be able to follow closely what full of content and also the Presidency Andrian Candu made statements. But I is happening in Vulcanesti or Gagauzia, hasn’t had many guests over the last do not think that’s enough. It seems (and let alone Transnistria. Elections two years. Yes, certain circumstances this is confirmed by sociological surveys) could be invalidated by local courts have been created- the summits we are not fully aware of the risks and anywhere. Under the law, if elections that have been largely formal - the challenges to state security, which can are declared void in more than 1/3 of traditional Francophonie, the Paris arise both from the unresolved conflict the constituencies - in 17 out of 51 – Forum dedicated to the end of the First on the Nistru and the unstable regional early general elections are announced. World War, to which Emmanuel Macron situation. And in the situation where, But if the elections are invalidated in invited around 100 Heads of State from de facto, we don’t have a functional 15 constituencies, that is going to be around the world. But that is too little army, we don’t have modern weapons OK. And then, what is going to happen for a pro-active foreign policy. Personally, to ensure the security and defense next? Who guarantees that in the case I see nothing wrong with the fact that capability of the state ... More than a candidate doesn’t suit the Power, they Igor Dodon meets with the President that - we argue with our neighbours, the are not going to invalidate the results of of the Russian Federation and tries to president of the Republic of Moldova the elections and organize new elections solve certain problems or with other doesn’t speak to his counterparts over or, possibly, they are not going to presidents if this is not to the detriment the Prut and Nistru, and the political recognize as winner the candidate who of the country and does not end up with class is promoting a stupid neutrality comes second? the extradition of certain teachers. What on the right bank of the Nistru, while is really bad, however, is the fact that the military applications with the use of What could be the local electoral head of state has failed to establish any modern weapons are taking place on impact of President Dodon’s activation friendly relations or cooperation with the left bank of the river... We need a on the international stage on his party? Romania and Ukraine. There is a saying secured security, and not a declared one. Is it an ambition or a strategy? that you cannot choose your neighbours And the reform of the army should be or your parents. It seems, however, real, not mimicked. They have declared Igor Dodon likes to be a traveling that President Dodon is working for his the transfer to a professional army and president, and he is happy to accept electorate, for whom it is not a serious contract-based enrolment. For now, any invitation - either private or official. thing that, at the presidential level, however, no one knows whether this But the problem remains: the foreign we have no relationship with either army is going to be just “professional” or partners have great suspicions about Bucharest or Kiev. also functional... Moldova, and President Igor Dodon, because of his often pro-Eastern Speaking of Kiev, what should Thank you for the interview. and anti-EU discourse, is part of this Moldovan diplomacy and possibly the problem. You have probably noticed head of state do as a result of the new Sorina Ștefârță

The opinions expressed in the newsletter are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) or of the Foreign Policy Association (APE).

Foreign Policy Association (APE) is a non-governmental organization committed to supporting the integration of the Republic of Moldova into the European Union and facilitating the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict in the context of the country Europeanization. APE was established in fall 2003 by a group of well-known experts, public personalities and former senior officials and diplomats, all of them reunited by their commitment to contribute with their expertise and experience to formulating and promoting by the Republic of Moldova of a coherent, credible and efficient foreign policy.

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is a German social democratic political foundation, whose purpose is to promote the principles and foundations of democracy, peace, international understanding and cooperation. FES fulfils its mandate in the spirit of social democracy, dedicating itself to the public debate and finding in a transparent

Monthly Bulletin, Nr. 10 (152),manner, November social2018 democratic solutions to current and future problems of the society. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has 64, Sciusev str. MD-2012, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova, Tel-Fax: +373 22 21 09 86 Website: www.ape.md E-mail:been [email protected] active in the Republic of Moldova since October 2002.