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Reevaluating the Global Digital Divide: Socio-Demographic and Conflict

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Reevaluating the Global Digital Divide: Socio-Demographic and Conflict Reevaluating the Global Digital Divide: Socio-Demographic and Conflict Barriers to the Internet Revolution* Kristopher K. Robison, Northern Illinois University Edward M. Crenshaw, Ohio State University The Global Digital Divide (GDD) in Internet and related forms of information technologies has gained some press and scholarly attention in recent years. Although the contours and causes of Internet diffusion around the globe are now better under- stood, a number of questions and avenues remain unanswered or unexplored, particu- larly concerning the role of socio-demographic structures and even conflict processes on Internet diffusion. This study addresses the current state of the digital divide and sheds new light on the barriers that continue to inhibit developing nations’ lag with the West in Internet connectivity. Focusing on a large sample of the world’s develop- ing nations, this project finds that although the GDD is narrowing, the gap is still large and that specific demographic properties (high fertility) and conflict processes threaten to keep many societies in the periphery of cyberspace. The authors also find that urban agglomerations work to amplify Internet demand over time and that matur- ing economies may no longer require democratization as a pathway to Internet devel- opment. Implications of these findings and future directions of research are briefly discussed. Within the past 20 years the world has witnessed the emergence of an entirely new form of social interaction made possible by the blending of tele- communications and computer technologies we call the ‘‘Internet.’’ Although many promises have been made about the benefits of free-flowing information to the globe’s have-nots, the stark reality has been that conventional economic and political divides translate into a Global Digital Divide (GDD). Previous research on the global diffusion of information technologies (ITs) demon- strates that Internet usage is not driven entirely by affluence but also by important social and political structures historically characteristic of the West. Developing nations that want to see an increase in Internet connectivity may therefore require a confluence of social, economic, and political factors such as affluence, political and economic freedoms, and technological culture. As many lag behind the West in these and other ways the question remains as to how long will this GDD linger. Sociological Inquiry, Vol. 80, No. 1, February 2010, 34–62 Ó 2010 Alpha Kappa Delta DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-682X.2009.00315.x REEVALUATING THE GLOBAL DIGITAL DIVIDE 35 This digital gap has not gone unnoticed, of course. Numerous journalists, scholars, governments, and non-governmental agencies have focused on the causes of and solutions to the GDD. Undoubtedly this attention has influenced the promotion and funding of Internet deployment across the globe. Work by the United Nations, including two summits on the GDD (2003 ⁄ 2005), has been instrumental in drawing attention to this gap, and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) has been active in fostering research on the digital. Indeed, there have been some successes in this top–down approach; the World Bank recently reported that the GDD is narrowing (BBC 2005; UN 2005). Nevertheless, in spite of these efforts and ongoing development and democratization in some parts of the developing world, the GDD persists and thus the important question for both developing communities and Internet researchers is simply, why? This project attempts to further deepen our understanding of this ongoing divide in several ways that fill important gaps in the empirical literature. Little research has considered the ground-level social factors that play a role in Internet deployment; most scholarship focuses primarily on national aggrega- tions of economic or political variables. For example, no previous research has considered the impact of political violence on Internet development even though it is widely acknowledged that political violence adversely affects entire economies (Seonjou and Meernika 2005). Furthermore, few scholars have considered whether specific demographic trends play a central role in affecting Internet capacity. In addition, most research has only part of the story about the connection of both economics and politics to Internet develop- ment. We maintain that development forces now trump political openness in their impacts on Internet growth. Next, we first discuss the persisting and in some cases growing GDD and then move toward a theoretic discussion of previously unexplored contextual barriers that inhibit the global diffusion of the Internet. Finally, we generate and empirically test several hypotheses on a sample of the world’s nations. The Growing Relevance of Internet Diffusion As a rapidly maturing global technology, the Internet is having an increasing impact on the world’s economic, political, and social affairs. The primary scholarly focus has been on the economic impact of advanced tele- communications (Cronin et al. 1991; Dholakia and Bari 1994; Saunders, Warford, and Wellenius 1994). Telecommunications minimize both costs and uncertainty governing the distribution of goods and services in a high mass consumption society (Hudson 1997; Hufbauer 1996; Rostow 1990). As with transportation arteries, telecommunication’s major economic impact is through the efficiency it provides in transitions. Previous research demonstrates a likely 36 KRISTOPHER K. ROBISON AND EDWARD M. CRENSHAW causal relationship between telecommunications and economic development. (Cronin et al. 1991; Dholakia and Bari 1994; Madden and Savage 2000; Saunders, Warford, and Wellenius 1994). As a form of telecommunications that is more extensive and revolutionary in depth and breadth of data trans- mission, the Internet is especially important for the global economy. Even peripheral areas of the world are not unaffected by the Internet; anecdotes abound about the Internet’s and even mobile phone’s usefulness to poor farm- ers in India and Africa for market information (Kamarck 2008). Although there is little cross-national empirical work linking political and social outcomes with Internet connectivity, it stands to reason that IT such as the Internet should play a significant role in social mobilization, the emer- gence ⁄ strengthening of civil societies, and the international constraints on states that follow from the interdependence of ‘‘world polity.’’ For instance, Baber (2002) notes how civil society has been strengthened in Singapore by Web sites devoted to constitutional rights, various social movements, and opposition parties. Others note the pros and cons of Internet connectivity in international activism against the forces of economic globalization (Clark and Themudo 2005). Another mechanism whereby the Internet may build partici- patory democracy is the growing necessity of governmental service Web sites, or ‘‘virtual cities’’ (Fernandez-Maldonado 2005). As the Internet increases interaction between government and its citizens, opportunities for activism and reform multiply over time. As scholars’ and the public’s awareness of the advantages of the digital revolution grows, so too has our understanding of the gap that separates the digital haves from the have-nots. The West’s dominance of the Internet—in terms of both supply and consumer demand—is widely acknowledged; however, that dominance is shrinking as the foregoing evidence suggests. State of the GDD First, data to date demonstrate the increase in IT demand at the global level. Figure 1 presents the explosive rate of growth in Internet use, broadband subscription, and mobile phone technologies—the tools of cyberspace—across the globe between 1990 and 2007. Since 1990, the number of Internet users per 100 has increased from a global average of nearly 2 to over 24 in 2007. Over the same time period, mobile phone usage grew from under 1 per 100 individuals on average to over 64, whereas broadband subscribership went from a low of 1 per 100 to almost 8 between 2000 and 2007. Notably, the higher prevalence of mobile phone usage further paves the way for Internet usage as voice and data transmission become more and more fused in hand- held devices. Clearly, since the mid-1990s the IT revolution has gained speed with no apparent plateau in sight. Given the benefits growing digitalization America (for both 1995and and also 2007). as theterms ratio of of the Internet users percent of increase each in regiontant to Internet regional Internet and users users national perthe in disparities prevalence 1,000 North in of IT from digital accessconfers 1995 inequities. around upon Nonetheless, to the populations, these globe. 2007 this trend lines graph cloak might impor- convey a sense of optimism about whose rates have almost reached parity withhalf-way mark North of America the atrates level .95 in achieved or 2007. by In 95 NorthHowever, fact, per- America. sub-Saharan’s to rates dategrew are the a at entire mere 11,000 developing .07grown world percent or over has whereas 7 yet the Middle percent100,000 to same Eastern of reach percent time rates the North between period topped American Canada). 1995 at 13,000 For and (only) percent. example, 2007regions 1,108 the whereas percent. North is North African Sub-Saharan American closingFirst, Internet rates rates the the user have data gap rate for grew with 1995 a and North whopping 2007 America suggests (i.e., the every the single United one of States the and world’s Internet & Mobile Phone Users (per 100) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 Table 1 illustrates the GDD as it exists across the world’s regions in Not surprisingly the sole exception to this disparity is Western Europe, 1990 International Growth in Information Technology: 1990–2007. 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 REEVALUATING THE GLOBAL DIGITAL DIVIDE 37 1997 Figure 1 1 Several comments follow from this table. 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Mobile Phone Users per 100 per Users Phone Mobile 2003 Broadband InternetUsers per 2004 Internet Users per 100 100 2005 2006 2007 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Broadband Users (per 100) 38 KRISTOPHER K. ROBISON AND EDWARD M.
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