Energy Savings Forecast of Solid- State Lighting in General Illumination Applications
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Energy Savings Forecast of Solid- State Lighting in General Illumination Applications December 2019 (This page intentionally left blank) 2018 ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST OF SOLID-STATE LIGHTING IN GENERAL ILLUMINATION APPLICATIONS Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency, contractor, or subcontractor thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. ii 2018 ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST OF SOLID-STATE LIGHTING IN GENERAL ILLUMINATION APPLICATIONS Comments The Energy Department is interested in feedback or comments on the materials presented in this document. Please write to Brian Walker, Lighting Program Manager: Brian Walker Lighting Program Manager U.S. Department of Energy 1000 Independence Avenue SW Washington, DC 20585-0121 Prepared By This report was prepared by: Navigant Consulting, Inc. 1200 19th Street NW, Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 Authors The authors of this report are: Navigant Consulting, Inc. Mary Yamada Julie Penning Seth Schober Kyung Lee Clay Elliott iii 2018 ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST OF SOLID-STATE LIGHTING IN GENERAL ILLUMINATION APPLICATIONS Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable guidance and input provided during the preparation of this report. Dr. James R. Brodrick of the U.S. Department of Energy, Building Technologies Office offered day-to- day oversight of this assignment, helping to shape the approach, execution, and documentation. The authors are also grateful to the follow list of contributors. Their feedback, guidance, and review proved invaluable in preparing the estimates contained in this report. Tony Adams Evergreen Consulting Group Norman Bardsley Bardsley Consulting Emily Bowers International Association of Lighting Designers Joel Chaddock National Energy Technology Laboratory Erika Gupta U.S. Department of Energy Roy Harvey Osram Sylvania Stephen Irving Lutron Kelley Gordon Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Marc Ledbetter Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Karen Marchese Akoya Dan Mellinger Energy Futures Group Levin Nock DesignLights Consortium Ravi Parikh RAB Lighting, Inc. Morgan Pattison SSLS, Inc. Michael Poplawski Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Dr. Karma Sawyer U.S. Department of Energy Mudit Saxena Vistar Energy Consulting Pauravi Shah Pacific Gas and Electric Company Bob Smith Eaton Wen-Lin Tsao Cisco Systems Chris Wolgamott Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance Scott Ziegenfus Hubbell Lighting, Inc. The DesignLights Consortium and Pacific Gas and Electric Company worked with TRC Energy Services and Vistar Energy Consulting to develop an Advanced Lighting Controls Energy Estimator tool. This tool uses the best available data and methodologies to estimate energy savings for layered lighting controls and automatically calculate savings compared to existing conditions and several energy codes. The U.S. Department of Energy acknowledges and appreciates their assistance in developing the methodology for the lighting controls energy savings component of the lighting market model. iv 2018 ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST OF SOLID-STATE LIGHTING IN GENERAL ILLUMINATION APPLICATIONS List of Acronyms and Abbreviations AEO Annual Energy Outlook BR Bulged Reflector BTU British Thermal Unit CCT Correlated Color Temperature CFL Compact Fluorescent Lamp CFR Code of Federal Regulations Com Commercial DALI Digital Addressable Lighting Interface DLC DesignLights Consortium DOE U.S. Department of Energy EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration EISA Energy Independence and Security Act EMS Energy Management Systems EPAct Energy Policy Act EPCA Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 GSFL General Service Fluorescent Lamp HID High Intensity Discharge HPS High Pressure Sodium Ind Industrial IRL Incandescent Reflector Lamp kWh Kilowatt-hour LBNL Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LED Lighting-Emitting Diode LLLC Luminaire Level Lighting Controls lm Lumen LMC Lighting Market Characterization LPS Low Pressure Sodium MH Metal Halide MSB Medium Screw Base MR Multifaceted Reflector MV Mercury Vapor NEMS National Energy Modeling System NEEA Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance O&M Operation and Maintenance Out Outdoor PAR Parabolic Aluminized Reflector Quad Quadrillion British Thermal Units R Reflector Res Residential SSL Solid-State Lighting tBTU Trillion British Thermal Units TWh Terrawatt-hour U.S. United States W Watt v 2018 ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST OF SOLID-STATE LIGHTING IN GENERAL ILLUMINATION APPLICATIONS (This page intentionally left blank) vi 2018 ENERGY SAVINGS FORECAST OF SOLID-STATE LIGHTING IN GENERAL ILLUMINATION APPLICATIONS Executive Summary In 2017, the total energy consumption in the United States (U.S.) was 96.8 quadrillion British thermal units (BTU), or quads, of primary energy according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2018. (1) Roughly 38% of this energy was consumed for electricity use. (1) The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solid-State Lighting (SSL) Program estimated that in 2017, lighting consumed approximately 6 quads of energy1 and accounted for 6% of the total energy and 16% of the total electricity consumed in the U.S. in 2017.2 Light-emitting diodes (LEDs), a type of SSL, are revolutionizing the lighting market. LEDs have surpassed, or matched, all conventional lighting technologies in terms of energy efficiency, lifetime, versatility, and color quality, and, due to their increasing cost competitiveness, LEDs are successfully competing in a wide variety of lighting applications. Going forward, LED technology is expected to continue to improve, with increasing efficacy and decreasing prices while enabling new opportunities for lighting design and energy savings. Among its various activities, DOE has supported studies forecasting the market penetration of LEDs in general illumination applications since 2002. These forecasts provide a comprehensive overview of the expected path of LED adoption within the U.S. and estimate the energy savings offered by LED products out to year 2035. This, the eighth iteration of the Energy Savings Forecast of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications report, presents the results of the 2018 U.S. lighting market model. This study forecasts the expected annual lighting energy consumption based on three different scenarios: No SSL A hypothetical scenario that assumes LED technology never entered the lighting market. LED lamps and luminaires are not available for competition, only conventional incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high intensity discharge sources. The No SSL scenario is used as the reference condition from which LED lamp and luminaire energy savings are calculated. Current SSL Path The expected future path for LED lamps and luminaires given continuation of current levels of solid-state lighting (SSL) investment and effort from DOE and industry stakeholders. DOE SSL Program Goals The future path for SSL given the DOE goals outlined in the annual SSL R&D Plan are met, representing the ultimate potential of what DOE has determined is technically feasible in the given time frame. The Current SSL Path scenario estimates the expected future adoption of LED lighting based on historical data and the current trajectory for the technology. The DOE SSL Program Goals scenario estimates the potential future adoption of LED lighting based on what DOE has determined is technically feasible in the given time frame, but would require additional efforts and funds to meet these goals. The hypothetical “No SSL” scenario, as indicated above, is used as a reference condition from which SSL energy savings are calculated for both the Current SSL Path and DOE SSL Program Goals scenarios. The model created for this report, the lighting market model, assumes the market adoption of LED lighting technology is driven primarily by projected improvements in product efficacy and price, as well as established technology diffusion rates. In 2017, the lighting market model estimates that LED penetration reached about 19% of all lighting installations, enabling 1.1 quadrillion British thermal units (quads) in energy savings.1 By the end of the analysis period, LEDs are anticipated to hold the majority of lighting installations in each of the submarkets examined, comprising 84% of all unit installations. Of the submarkets examined, the lighting market model anticipates that the LED penetration will grow the most in low and high bay and linear fixture submarkets between 2017 and 2035. These are submarkets where the LED penetration is currently low but there is significant potential for growth due to potential savings. While those applications experience the largest growth, the area and roadway, parking, and building exterior