COUNTRY RE PORT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

AFGHANISTAN NILS WÖRMER

March 2014 Democratic Handover in www.kas.de/ Afghanistan?

2014 PRESEDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE CRUCIAL

Successful presidential elections on 5 province, these have between nine and 29 April 2014 would produce the first demo- seats. Altogether almost 2,700 candidates, cratic handover in Afghanistan’s history. including about 300 women, are standing The vote also represents a milestone in for the 420 provincial council seats across the current transition phase. The organi- the country. sation and conduct of the election process and the extent of proven manipulation Significance of the elections will reveal a great deal about the progress of Afghan democratisation. Ensuring that Since the second half of 2013 the political the election can be held across the entire debate in and about Afghanistan has been country will also represent the ultimate dominated by two themes: the US-Afghan test for the Afghan security forces – Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) and the shortly before the withdrawal of NATO presidential elections. These two issues combat forces. Although the election pro- have lately overshadowed discussion about cess has rolled out promisingly, there is the central action areas for the transition still a danger of the ballot being post- phase (mid-2011 to the end of 2014) de- poned or so overshadowed by violence fined by the Afghan government and the and fraud as to leave the new Afghan international community : (1) governance president with minimal legitimacy. Three and corruption, (2) building national securi- candidates have forged ahead in recent ty forces, (3) regional cooperation (above weeks, but none can yet be regarded as a all with Iran and Pakistan), (4) reconcilia- clear favourite. tion and peace process, and (5) creating an economic perspective. Nonetheless, the On 5 April 2014 Afghanistan will hold its conduct and outcome of the presidential third presidential elections since the remov- elections will function as a barometer of al of the Taliban in autumn 2001. Hamid progress and deficits in the aforementioned Karzai, who served as interim president policy fields and decisively influence future (2002 to 2004) before being elected in 2004 developments in these central areas. and 2009, is not permitted to stand a third time. Successful elections would thus bring First of all, it will reveal to what extent the about the first democratic handover in Af- current government is willing and able to ghanistan’s history. In the eyes of the inter- organise free and fair elections and thus ful- national community the vote will have been fil its promises on good governance. Since successful if it is freer, fairer and more in- the beginning of the year the Afghan securi- clusive than the 2009 presidential election, ty forces have gone on the offensive to which was overshadowed by fraud, abuse of erode the insurgents’ resources and restrict power and violence. their radius of action. On election day the security forces will be forced to operate de- As well as a president, Afghans will also be fensively to protect polling stations and oth- electing the 34 provincial councils on 5 er facilities. Especially in the eyes of the Af- April. Depending on the population of the ghan population, these operations represent

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. an important indicator of the current consent of national parliaments in certain strength of the police, army and intelligence NATO member-states all also have to wait AFGHANISTAN service. Success in safeguarding more or until after the elections. Consequently, any NILS WÖRMER less nationwide elections and largely pre- significant delay in holding the elections venting spectacular, headline-grabbing at- would torpedo the required planning phase March 2014 tacks would boost the reputation and mo- for US and NATO post-2014 military en- rale of the army and police force. If the gagement in the country. This means that www.kas.de/afghanistan elections are also perceived as largely free, the future Afghanistan policy of the NATO fair and transparent, that would strengthen states and a part of the associated military respect for the institutions of the Afghan and development aid depend directly on the state. But if escalating violence prevents the shape of the election process. poll taking place at all in some parts of the country, or it is overshadowed by fraud and The election process abuse of power, the population will probably finally lose its faith in the political system. On 17 and 20 July 2013 President signed two laws regulating the pro- The regional powers of Iran and Pakistan cess and responsibilities for organising and will, like the leadership of the Afghan Tali- conducting the presidential elections: a ban, only decide their future political course general election law and the Law on the once it has become clear how the elections Structure, Duties and Authorities of the In- went and what the post-2014 NATO and US dependent Election Commission (IEC) and military presence will look like. An Afghani- the Independent Electoral Complaints stan with a legitimate president, strength- Commission (ECC).1 As required by the leg- ened political institutions and a US and islation, President Karzai on 29 July 2013 NATO military presence (even if heavily re- appointed a nine-member Independent duced) represents a completely different Election Commission. scenario than the same country after chaot- ic elections, with a severely damaged gov- In May 2013, even before the passage of ernment and an aborted Bilateral Security the election laws and the appointment of Agreement. the Independent Election Commission and the Independent Electoral Complaints So the shape of the election process will in- Commission, the Afghan government began fluence whether Iran and Pakistan choose to re-registering voters at the district level. pursue a cooperative or more aggressive The process was completed by November approach to the peace process and future 2013. The number eligible to vote is esti- stabilisation efforts by the international mated at about 12 million, out of a total community, and the extent of concessions population of approximately 30 million, alt- the Afghan Taliban may be willing to make. hough it is believed that up to 20 million The question of the outcome of the election, voting cards could be in circulation. More the election winner, is of secondary im- than three million of these were issued in portance in this connection. And because the latest registration phase in 2013, the the stance of outgoing President Karzai in rest originate from voter registrations in ad- recent months has tied the Bilateral Securi- vance of the 2004 and 2009 presidential ty Agreement to the elections, the shape of

the election process will influence the entire planning of Western military and civilian for 1 the period after 2014. Karzai is leaving it to Independent Election Commission of Af- his successor to sign (or reject) the Bilateral ghanistan. Security Agreement between Afghanistan http://www.iec.org.af/pdf/legalframework/l and the United States. That means that a aw/electorallaw_eng.pdf and parallel agreement between Afghanistan http://www.iec.org.af/pdf/legalframework/l and NATO, the necessary formal invitation aw/law_structure_iec_duties_authorities_en by the Afghan government, g.pdf. legitimisation of the new mission, and the

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. elections and the 2005 and 2010 parliamen- sults on 24 April and announcement of final tary elections.2 results on 14 May. Complaints about the AFGHANISTAN conduct of the election may be submitted NILS WÖRMER Altogether, according to the Independent between 7 and 27 April, for investigation by Election Commission, there will be 6,775 the Independent Electoral Complaints March 2014 polling stations across the country on 5 Commission by 7 May. If, as presently ex- April.3 Initially, in January, the Interior Min- pected, none of the candidates passes the www.kas.de/afghanistan istry declared that 414 polling stations 50 percent threshold in the first round, a would have to remain closed because of se- second round must be held 14 days after curity concerns. But shortly thereafter, on announcement of the first round final result 21 January, the Independent Election (in other words on 28 May) to decide be- Commission announced that 313 additional tween the two leading candidates. In this polling stations would be set up. Security event the announcement of a provisional circles in expect that about 5 percent result would be expected in mid-June and (in the worst case 10 percent) of the polling the final second round result not before the stations currently planned by the Independ- end of June. So even without delays in the ent Election Commission may have to be process the identity of the new Afghan pres- closed at the last minute or will remain un- ident will not be known until the beginning staffed on election day, and that voting at of the holy month of Ramadan.4 those locales will be impossible. In the event of one of the eleven presiden- The actual election process began on 16 tial candidates dying during the first or sec- September 2013 with a three-week regis- ond round or before the election result has tration phase for presidential candidates. By been announced, the constitution and elec- 6 October, 27 candidates had submitted ap- tion law stipulate that a new vote be held plications. On 16 November 2013, after with the surviving candidates within 30 several weeks of scrutiny, the Independent days. Election Commission published its final list of eleven approved candidates and their re- Candidates spective running mates for the posts of first and second vice-president. Thus since the The most prominent presidential candidates end of 2013 the attention of the Afghan are the 2009 runner-up and former foreign electorate and media has focused on 33 in- minister Dr. , former fi- dividuals in eleven three-person teams. nance minister Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, the recently retired foreign minister Zalmai Ras- According to the election law the presiden- soul,5 President Karzai’s older brother tial and vice-presidential candidates may Qayyum Karzai (who has since withdrawn campaign between 2 February and 2 April from the contest), Wahhabite-leaning for- 2014, followed by a 48-hour political cam- mer mujahideen leader Abdur Rab Rassul paign silence period before the first round of Sayyaf, former defence minister Rahim voting on 5 April. The timetable continues Wardak, and the former governor of Kanda- with publication of provisional election re-

2 Guardian, 3 February 2014. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/fe b/03/afghanistan-election-guide- 4 candidates-list. Ramadan is expected to begin on 28 June this year. 3 Independent Election Commission of Af- 5 ghanistan. All candidates had to resign their public http://www.iec.org.af/pdf/summary-pc-list- offices before submitting their applications eng.pdf. to the Independent Election Commission.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. har and Nangarhar provinces, Gul Agha The campaign Sherzai.6 AFGHANISTAN The 2014 election campaign differs signifi- NILS WÖRMER The compositions of the eleven three- cantly from its predecessor in 2009. The person candidate teams, which have been campaigns have become noticeably more March 2014 known since November 2013, are extremely sophisticated and professional. During the heterogeneous and in some cases represent first weeks the candidates concentrated www.kas.de/afghanistan curious political alliances. It would appear above all on Kabul, and held a series of de- that most of the presidential candidates bates and political talk shows to present have forged alliances with political adver- and defend their goals and programmes. saries or rivals in order to appeal to as This helped to stimulate popular interest in many as possible of the relevant political the elections, the candidates and to some camps and societal groups. Most candidate extent also the political issues. Fundamen- teams are thus composed of members of tally, it should be noted that more people, different ethnic groups, although it is con- especially from the younger generations, spicuous that there is only one non-Pashtun now ask about political ideas and differ- presidential candidate, the Tajik Abdullah ences, but the candidates’ programmes fre- Abdullah. He is also the only candidate quently remain threadbare and the substan- standing officially for a party, Jamiat-e Is- tive political issues are not at the centre of lami Afghanistan (Islamic Society of Afghan- the political debates. Almost all the candi- istan). All the other hopefuls registered as dates have promised to create jobs, fight independents. corruption, advance the peace talks and sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with The two main Islamist parties, Jamiat-e Is- the United States.7 lami Afghanistan and Hezb-e Islami Afghan- istan (Islamic Party of Afghanistan), which There are still considerable differences in were among the main protagonists in the political participation and knowledge about wars of the 1980s and 1990s, are repre- democracy between the urban centres and sented by prominent figures in various can- the villages. In many villages there is no didate teams. This underlines the marginal election campaigning at all, or it is conduct- role of political parties in this year’s elec- ed in a very traditional manner, with elec- tions: individuals and alliances of individuals tion helpers coming in person to hold meet- and networks are uppermost. From the an- ings for their candidate. Here, as in many nouncement of the final list in November other political and social questions, the 2013 until well into the campaign there was stark urban/rural contrast that characterises speculation that candidate teams would Afghanistan comes to the fore. break apart as presidential candidates fell out with their running mates. While that has In the course of the campaign four candi- not occurred to date, three presidential dates emerged relatively quickly as heavy- candidates have withdrawn in the course of weights: Abdullah Abdullah, Ashraf Ghani, March, thus reducing the field to eight (as Zalmai Rassoul and Qayyum Karzai. How- of 27 March). ever, from the outset either Qayyum Karzai or Zalmai Rassoul was expected to withdraw as both are close to President Karzai. Since Qayyum Karzai stepped down on 4 March

and called on his supporters to vote for Zalmai Rassoul, the latter has been regard- 6 The other candidates are Qutbuddin Helal (former negotiator for Gulbuddin Hek- 7 matyar’s Hezb-e Islami), Nader Naim (for- Only the outsider Qutbuddin Helal from mer chief of staff to the king), economist Hezb-e Islami criticises the Bilateral Securi- Hedayat Amin Arsala, and former member ty Agreement and refuses to say whether of parliament Mohammad Daud Sultanzoy. he would sign.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. ed as the candidate of Karzai’s political One success the Taliban can certainly claim camp. He would be expected to continue is the withdrawal of some of the few inter- AFGHANISTAN the (clientelist) policies of the outgoing national election observers after the 20 NILS WÖRMER president and leave existing patronage net- March attack on the Serena Hotel in Kabul. works largely untouched. For that reason March 2014 Zalmai Rassoul enjoys particularly strong Summary backing among state employees. This gives www.kas.de/afghanistan him supporters in all provinces, although With a three-way fight in prospect there will not necessarily a majority. Abdullah Abdul- already be a loser after the first round. lah has worked hard to win Pashtun voters, Here, and after any run-off, it will be crucial knowing he can be sure of strong support whether the loser accepts defeat or disputes among non- and having seen in the victory of one or more rivals. If the sec- 2009 that he cannot win without receiving ond- and third-placed candidates are very Pashtun votes. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has, close after the first round, protests must like Abdullah Abdullah, strong support definitely be expected. Even if there is little among younger voters, and has succeeded fraud, margins of several percentage points in drawing numerous smaller parties, politi- must be reckoned with. Clear-cut first- cians and influential council bodies (shuras) round results, with a discernible gap be- to his side. tween second and third place, would thus be beneficial for the election process, as it Observers in Kabul forecast that Abdullah would grant the run-off candidates greater Abdullah, Ashraf Ghani and Zalmai Rassoul legitimacy. will share about 90 percent of the votes be- tween them, with only 10 percent falling to With respect to the second round, there is a the other candidates. The withdrawals of possibility that one of the candidates will Rahim Wardak and Nader Naim on 16 and withdraw and thus considerably shorten the 26 March have not influenced the campaign election process, as occurred in 2009. This and will have minimal effect on the vote should naturally occur not, as five years shares of the other candidates. Lately, some ago, in protest at blatant ballot-stuffing, but Afghan observers – including members of all ideally as an amicable agreement between three campaign teams – see Abdullah Ab- the two remaining candidates. dullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai roughly neck-and-neck, clearly ahead of Zalmai Despite increasing insurgent attacks and Rassoul. numerous deficits and shortcomings,8 the election process thus far has been accepta- In a press release on 10 March the Taliban ble, in the sense that the problems many announced they would conduct attacks on observers had expected to occur (including polling stations and persons involved in or- moves by Karzai to postpone the election) ganising the election. They also threatened have not transpired. That in turn means voters and called for an election boycott. In that successful elections can still be held. security circles in Kabul there are differing On the other hand, the entire election pro- opinions about the insurgents’ ability to sig- cess hangs by a thread: The recent attacks nificantly harm the election process. Some in Kabul show that the Taliban and their al-

army, police and intelligence officers believe the resources and capacities of the Taliban 8 and other groups to be limited and see the See for example Afghanistan Analysts Afghan security forces strong enough to Network (AAN): http://www.afghanistan- largely prevent an escalation of violence on analysts.org/a-process-fast-and-patchy- 5 April. Others regard the recent increase in new-independent-elections-commission- attacks and bombings as an indication that announced and http://www.afghanistan- the insurgents will succeed in launching analysts.org/not-a-promising-start-the- their announced offensive with a sharp in- vetting-of-the-presidential-and-provincial- crease in violence during the decisive council-candidates. phase.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. lies still possess the capacity to conduct complex attacks in many parts of the coun- AFGHANISTAN try. The assassination of political leaders or NILS WÖRMER presidential candidates can never be fully excluded and could utterly disrupt the elec- March 2014 tion process. Or a wave of violence in the days before the vote could lead to a very www.kas.de/afghanistan low turn-out or the closure of many polling stations. The extent of vote-rigging is cur- rently unpredictable and ultimately remains a major uncertainty factor.