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COUNTRY RE PORT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. AFGHANISTAN NILS WÖRMER March 2014 Democratic Handover in www.kas.de/afghanistan Afghanistan? 2014 PRESEDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE CRUCIAL Successful presidential elections on 5 province, these have between nine and 29 April 2014 would produce the first demo- seats. Altogether almost 2,700 candidates, cratic handover in Afghanistan’s history. including about 300 women, are standing The vote also represents a milestone in for the 420 provincial council seats across the current transition phase. The organi- the country. sation and conduct of the election process and the extent of proven manipulation Significance of the elections will reveal a great deal about the progress of Afghan democratisation. Ensuring that Since the second half of 2013 the political the election can be held across the entire debate in and about Afghanistan has been country will also represent the ultimate dominated by two themes: the US-Afghan test for the Afghan security forces – Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) and the shortly before the withdrawal of NATO presidential elections. These two issues combat forces. Although the election pro- have lately overshadowed discussion about cess has rolled out promisingly, there is the central action areas for the transition still a danger of the ballot being post- phase (mid-2011 to the end of 2014) de- poned or so overshadowed by violence fined by the Afghan government and the and fraud as to leave the new Afghan international community : (1) governance president with minimal legitimacy. Three and corruption, (2) building national securi- candidates have forged ahead in recent ty forces, (3) regional cooperation (above weeks, but none can yet be regarded as a all with Iran and Pakistan), (4) reconcilia- clear favourite. tion and peace process, and (5) creating an economic perspective. Nonetheless, the On 5 April 2014 Afghanistan will hold its conduct and outcome of the presidential third presidential elections since the remov- elections will function as a barometer of al of the Taliban in autumn 2001. Hamid progress and deficits in the aforementioned Karzai, who served as interim president policy fields and decisively influence future (2002 to 2004) before being elected in 2004 developments in these central areas. and 2009, is not permitted to stand a third time. Successful elections would thus bring First of all, it will reveal to what extent the about the first democratic handover in Af- current government is willing and able to ghanistan’s history. In the eyes of the inter- organise free and fair elections and thus ful- national community the vote will have been fil its promises on good governance. Since successful if it is freer, fairer and more in- the beginning of the year the Afghan securi- clusive than the 2009 presidential election, ty forces have gone on the offensive to which was overshadowed by fraud, abuse of erode the insurgents’ resources and restrict power and violence. their radius of action. On election day the security forces will be forced to operate de- As well as a president, Afghans will also be fensively to protect polling stations and oth- electing the 34 provincial councils on 5 er facilities. Especially in the eyes of the Af- April. Depending on the population of the ghan population, these operations represent 2 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. an important indicator of the current consent of national parliaments in certain strength of the police, army and intelligence NATO member-states all also have to wait AFGHANISTAN service. Success in safeguarding more or until after the elections. Consequently, any NILS WÖRMER less nationwide elections and largely pre- significant delay in holding the elections venting spectacular, headline-grabbing at- would torpedo the required planning phase March 2014 tacks would boost the reputation and mo- for US and NATO post-2014 military en- rale of the army and police force. If the gagement in the country. This means that www.kas.de/afghanistan elections are also perceived as largely free, the future Afghanistan policy of the NATO fair and transparent, that would strengthen states and a part of the associated military respect for the institutions of the Afghan and development aid depend directly on the state. But if escalating violence prevents the shape of the election process. poll taking place at all in some parts of the country, or it is overshadowed by fraud and The election process abuse of power, the population will probably finally lose its faith in the political system. On 17 and 20 July 2013 President Hamid Karzai signed two laws regulating the pro- The regional powers of Iran and Pakistan cess and responsibilities for organising and will, like the leadership of the Afghan Tali- conducting the presidential elections: a ban, only decide their future political course general election law and the Law on the once it has become clear how the elections Structure, Duties and Authorities of the In- went and what the post-2014 NATO and US dependent Election Commission (IEC) and military presence will look like. An Afghani- the Independent Electoral Complaints stan with a legitimate president, strength- Commission (ECC).1 As required by the leg- ened political institutions and a US and islation, President Karzai on 29 July 2013 NATO military presence (even if heavily re- appointed a nine-member Independent duced) represents a completely different Election Commission. scenario than the same country after chaot- ic elections, with a severely damaged gov- In May 2013, even before the passage of ernment and an aborted Bilateral Security the election laws and the appointment of Agreement. the Independent Election Commission and the Independent Electoral Complaints So the shape of the election process will in- Commission, the Afghan government began fluence whether Iran and Pakistan choose to re-registering voters at the district level. pursue a cooperative or more aggressive The process was completed by November approach to the peace process and future 2013. The number eligible to vote is esti- stabilisation efforts by the international mated at about 12 million, out of a total community, and the extent of concessions population of approximately 30 million, alt- the Afghan Taliban may be willing to make. hough it is believed that up to 20 million The question of the outcome of the election, voting cards could be in circulation. More the election winner, is of secondary im- than three million of these were issued in portance in this connection. And because the latest registration phase in 2013, the the stance of outgoing President Karzai in rest originate from voter registrations in ad- recent months has tied the Bilateral Securi- vance of the 2004 and 2009 presidential ty Agreement to the elections, the shape of the election process will influence the entire planning of Western military and civilian for the period after 2014. Karzai is leaving it to 1 Independent Election Commission of Af- his successor to sign (or reject) the Bilateral ghanistan. Security Agreement between Afghanistan http://www.iec.org.af/pdf/legalframework/l and the United States. That means that a aw/electorallaw_eng.pdf and parallel agreement between Afghanistan http://www.iec.org.af/pdf/legalframework/l and NATO, the necessary formal invitation aw/law_structure_iec_duties_authorities_en by the Afghan government, United Nations g.pdf. legitimisation of the new mission, and the 3 Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. elections and the 2005 and 2010 parliamen- sults on 24 April and announcement of final tary elections.2 results on 14 May. Complaints about the AFGHANISTAN conduct of the election may be submitted NILS WÖRMER Altogether, according to the Independent between 7 and 27 April, for investigation by Election Commission, there will be 6,775 the Independent Electoral Complaints March 2014 polling stations across the country on 5 Commission by 7 May. If, as presently ex- April.3 Initially, in January, the Interior Min- pected, none of the candidates passes the www.kas.de/afghanistan istry declared that 414 polling stations 50 percent threshold in the first round, a would have to remain closed because of se- second round must be held 14 days after curity concerns. But shortly thereafter, on announcement of the first round final result 21 January, the Independent Election (in other words on 28 May) to decide be- Commission announced that 313 additional tween the two leading candidates. In this polling stations would be set up. Security event the announcement of a provisional circles in Kabul expect that about 5 percent result would be expected in mid-June and (in the worst case 10 percent) of the polling the final second round result not before the stations currently planned by the Independ- end of June. So even without delays in the ent Election Commission may have to be process the identity of the new Afghan pres- closed at the last minute or will remain un- ident will not be known until the beginning staffed on election day, and that voting at of the holy month of Ramadan.4 those locales will be impossible. In the event of one of the eleven presiden- The actual election process began on 16 tial candidates dying during the first or sec- September 2013 with a three-week regis- ond round or before the election result has tration phase for presidential candidates. By been announced, the constitution and elec- 6 October, 27 candidates had submitted ap- tion law stipulate that a new vote be held plications. On 16 November 2013, after with the surviving candidates within 30 several weeks of scrutiny, the Independent days. Election Commission published its final list of eleven approved candidates and their re- Candidates spective running mates for the posts of first and second vice-president. Thus since the The most prominent presidential candidates end of 2013 the attention of the Afghan are the 2009 runner-up and former foreign electorate and media has focused on 33 in- minister Dr.