DOCSLIB.ORG

Reimagining Grid Resilience a Framework for Addressing Catastrophic Threats to the US Electricity Grid in an Era of Transformational Change

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Reimagining Grid Resilience a Framework for Addressing Catastrophic Threats to the US Electricity Grid in an Era of Transformational Change Reimagining Grid Resilience A Framework For Addressing Catastrophic Threats to the US Electricity Grid in an Era of Transformational Change BY MARK DYSON AND BECKY LI AUTHORS & ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AUTHORS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Mark Dyson, Becky Li The authors thank the following individuals for offering their insights and perspectives on this work: * Authors listed alphabetically. All authors from Rocky Mountain Institute unless otherwise noted. Grant Glazer, Rocky Mountain Institute Leia Guccione, Rocky Mountain Institute Richard Li, Rocky Mountain Institute CONTACTS Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute Mark Dyson, [email protected] James Newcomb, Rocky Mountain Institute Becky Li, [email protected] Lauren Shwisberg, Rocky Mountain Institute Chaz Teplin, Rocky Mountain Institute SUGGESTED CITATION Mark Dyson and Becky Li, Reimagining Grid The authors would also like to thank the group of utility Resilience, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2020, http:// industry practitioners, national security stakeholders, www.rmi.org/insight/reimagining-grid-resilience. technology developers, and other experts who supported development of concepts explored in All images from iStock unless otherwise noted. this study during a two-day workshop in December 2018. We are also thankful to the Smith Richardson Foundation for funding the research that supports this publication. All views presented in this study are solely the responsibility of the authors. ABOUT ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI)—an independent nonprofit founded in 1982—transforms global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, and secure low-carbon future. It engages businesses, communities, institutions, and entrepreneurs to accelerate the adoption of market-based solutions that cost-effectively shift from fossil fuels to efficiency and renewables. RMI has offices in Basalt and Boulder, Colorado; New York City; the San Francisco Bay Area; Washington, D.C.; and Beijing. TABLE OF CONTENTS ES 1 2 3 Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 6 1. Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................12 2. Vulnerabilities of Today’s Grid .................................................................................................................... 17 Power System Value Chain And Resilience Interdependencies ........................................................................... 18 Existing Approaches to Ensuring Grid Security .............................................................................................................................. 20 3. Catastrophic Risks to Grid Security ..........................................................................................................27 Extreme Weather and Natural Disasters ........................................................................................................................................... 29 Physical Attacks .........................................................................................................................................................................................31 Cyberattacks ..............................................................................................................................................................................................32 Geomagnetic Disturbances and Electromagnetic Pulse Attacks ................................................................................................34 Common Trends Across Catastrophic Risks .................................................................................................................................... 36 4. Technologies Reshaping the US Grid .....................................................................................................37 Fuel and Generation ................................................................................................................................................................................39 Transmission and Distribution .............................................................................................................................................................. 40 Customer-Sited Technologies ................................................................................................................................................................41 4 5 6 7 5. Assessing Grid Resilience in a Changing System ..............................................................................42 A New Framework for Addressing Resilience Risks .......................................................................................................................43 Evaluating Current Resilience Interventions .................................................................................................................................... 50 Emerging Interventions: Overview ..................................................................................................................................................... 54 6. Principles and Recommendations for Improving Grid Resilience ................................................62 7. Case Study: Resilience Options for Public Safety Power Shutoffs .............................................. 66 Endnotes ................................................................................................................................................................72 Executive Summary Executive Summary Since its origins at the beginning of the last century, at risk from rapidly evolving threats from both the electricity system has been a critical driver of US malicious attacks and natural disasters. Long-term, economic growth and prosperity. Today, its importance large-area grid outages driven by severe weather has grown exponentially, with the increasing prevalence alone now cause tens of billions of dollars in damage and importance of internet-based services within all to the US economy each year, and this threat is only sectors of the economy, and growing momentum to one of many that are growing in impact and likelihood. electrify vehicle and building heating energy use. But what happens when the grid goes down? A grid Grid planners and operators have long managed outage can mean not being able to access critical this inherent vulnerability through redundancy and health services, water supply, communications, and hardening of critical equipment but are unable to more, negatively affecting people’s well-being and our completely avoid outage risks. Exhibit ES1 illustrates country’s economic growth. the components of the grid value chain, and in particular the dependence of electricity access to end- Unfortunately, the US grid, generally defined by a use customers on the continued operation of each linear, one-way flow of electricity and economic value component of the chain, from fuel supplies, to central- from central-station generators to end-use customers, station generation, to transmission and distribution. If was developed in an era dominated by economies of any of these components within the grid is disrupted, scale of fossil-fuel power plants. It is now increasingly end-users face outages. EXHIBIT ES1 Grid Architecture and Vulnerabilities Associated with Each Component of the Grid Value Chain Fuel supply disruptions disable CASCADING FAILURE generation facilities Generation failures limit CASCADING FAILURE power supply to transmission Transmission outages CASCADING FAILURE disable wide service areas End-use services rely on operation of all upstream components REIMAGINING GRID RESILIENCE IN THE CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION | 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY And the number of outages is growing. Emerging Exhibit ES2 summarizes four categories of catastrophic human-made threats and natural disasters are threats to the power grid. They vary in the extent to compounding the risk of catastrophic, long-term which they are understood by industry practitioners outages across the power grid and the economy and policymakers, but each has the potential to disrupt it supports. In recent years, malicious actors have access to electricity across wide regions, for days demonstrated the potential for physical attacks as to months at a time (potentially longer), with severe well as cyberattacks on grid infrastructure to wreak consequences for the US economy. havoc on human safety, economic activity, and political stability. Natural disasters including solar storms and Importantly, there are other categories of threats climate change-driven extreme weather have caused not specifically covered in this study, but which long-duration outages for millions of customers across have largely similar effects on the ability of grid wide swaths of North America. infrastructure to deliver electricity to end-use EXHIBIT ES2 Grid Architecture and Vulnerabilities Associated with Each Component of the Grid Value Chain Extreme Weather Physical Attacks Cyberattacks Electromagnetic and Natural Pulse Attacks Disasters and Geomagnetic Disturbances Hurricanes, Bombings, shootings, Deliberate An electromagnetic superstorms, wire cutting, arson. exploitation of pulse (EMP) is cold spells, high computer systems in caused by high- winds, wildfires, order to gain control altitude detonation Examples/Definition earthquakes. of or damage the grid. of a nuclear device. A geomagnetic disturbance
Load more

Recommended publications
  • (Nxpowerlite).Ppt
    MAP/Ming Professorship, Engineering School, Stanford University, 29 March 2007 CEE 173L/273L: Advanced Energy End-Use Efficiency Public Lectures in Advanced Energy Efficiency: 4. Implementation “To be truly radical is to make hope possible, not despair convincing.” — Raymond Williams Amory B. Lovins Chairman and Chief Scientist Rocky Mountain Institute www .rmi.org [email protected] Copyright © 2007 Stanford University. All rights reserved. Distribution licensed to Rocky Mountain Institute. Osage (Iowa) municipal utilities ◊ 11 employees serving ~3,800 population ◊ A decade of demand-side management advice to homes and small businesses: Prepaid all the debt and built a $2.5M emergency fund Cut the rates 5 times in 5 y (by 1/3 real, to 1/2 IA av.) Kept existing factories competitive & attracted two more Kept >$1,000/household-y in town, supporting local jobs and multipliers Made Osage noticeably more prosperous than comparable neighboring towns ◊ If you can’t keep the bathtub full because the water keeps running out…do you need a bigger water-heater, or do you need a plug? U.S. energy/GDP already cut 46%, to very nearly the 1976 “soft path” 250 primary energy consumption (quadrillion BTU/year) 200 "hard path" projected by industry and government ~1975 government USEIA Annual 150 Energy Outlook actual total actual total energy saved 86 q/y = Reference Case, consumption 2004 and 2006 reported by USEIAconsumption 2.12× 2005 oil 100 "soft path" proposed by Lovins, Foreign Affairs , Fall 1976 coal gas oil and gas 50 soft technologies oil
    [Show full text]
  • University of Cincinnati
    UNIVERSITY OF CINCINNATI 05/29/08 Date:___________________ Carl Sterner I, _________________________________________________________, hereby submit this work as part of the requirements for the degree of: Master in: Architecture It is entitled: A Sustainable Pattern Language: A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Design This work and its defense approved by: Chair: T_om__ _Bible___________________________ Elizabeth______ _Riorden________________________ Michael_____ _Zaretsky_________________________ _______________________________ _______________________________ A Sustainable Pattern Language: A Comprehensive Approach to Sustainable Design Carl S. Sterner Bachelor of Architecture University of Cincinnati, 2006 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Architecture University of Cincinnati College of Design, Architecture, Art & Planning School of Architecture & Interior Design Committee Members: G. Thomas Bible Elizabeth Riorden Michael Zaretsky May 2008 Copyright © 2008 by Carl S. Sterner All rights reserved. Please direct reprint requests and questions to: Carl S. Sterner, [email protected] Abstract Sustainable design as presently prac- ticed focuses on technical solutions, ignoring the socio-cultural dimensions of sustainability. A truly sustainable society will require substantial change to our economic structure and social order. Architecture must therefore en- gage both the social and technical di- mensions of sustainability. This thesis attempts to understand the architectural implications
    [Show full text]
  • How to Retire Early Making Accelerated Coal Phaseout Feasible and Just “Possible Quote on the Report/Research Topic Here
    M OUN KY T C A I O N R I N E STIT U T How To Retire Early Making Accelerated Coal Phaseout Feasible and Just “Possible quote on the report/research topic here. Et que prorpos et, consedi dolupta spicid quam nus qui audipit verumet usdandi genima venimagni sandiat iatur? Quia volorror ad quossimet ulpa seque ab il min coraeribus aut repudis esto magnientus, sum nos ea erum es samuscimus mo quodissimus qui ute et landis aut enisque volor alitate essed molupidunt voluptat qui coressin nulparumqui rerem re pa et haria nonsedit dere voluptam vene es eum volorep eribusanim rem est, as explitas sinis essus con con praeperit quunt.” —Name of the person being quoted Authors & Acknowledgments Authors Paul Bodnar, Matthew Gray (Carbon Tracker Initiative), Tamara Grbusic, Steve Herz (Sierra Club), Amanda Lonsdale (Magnitude Global Finance), Sam Mardell, Caroline Ott, Sriya Sundaresan (Carbon Tracker Initiative), Uday Varadarajan (Rocky Mountain Institute and Stanford Sustainable Finance Initiative) * Authors listed alphabetically. All authors from Rocky Mountain Institute unless otherwise noted. Contacts Caroline Ott, [email protected] Matthew Gray, [email protected] Steve Herz, [email protected] Suggested Citation Paul Bodnar, Matthew Gray, Tamara Grbusic, Steve Herz, Amanda Lonsdale, Sam Mardell, Caroline Ott, Sriya Sundaresan, and Uday Varadarajan, How to Retire Early: Making Accelerated Coal Phaseout Feasible and Just, Rocky Mountain Institute, 2020, https://rmi.org/insight/how-to-retire-early. Images courtesy of iStock unless otherwise noted. Acknowledgments This report has benefited from the input of over 60 individuals from over 30 institutions. For a complete list of individuals who informed this report, please see the acknowledgments on pages 54 and 55.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report 2019–2020
    annual report 2019–2020 Energy Solutions for the Decisive Decade M OUN KY T C A I O N R IN S T E Rocky Mountain Institute Annual Report 2019/2020TIT U1 04 Letter from Our CEO 08 Introducing RMI’s New Global Programs 10 Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Contents. 2 Rocky Mountain Institute Annual Report 2019/2020 Cover image courtesy of Unsplash/Cassie Matias 14 54 Amory Lovins: Making the Board of Trustees Future a Reality 22 62 Think, Do, Scale Thank You, Donors! 50 104 Financials Our Locations Rocky Mountain Institute Annual Report 2019/2020 3 4 Rocky Mountain Institute Annual Report 2019/2020 Letter from Our CEO There is no doubt that humanity has been dealt a difficult hand in 2020. A global pandemic and resulting economic instability have sown tremendous uncertainty for now and for the future. Record- breaking natural disasters—hurricanes, floods, and wildfires—have devastated communities resulting in deep personal suffering. Meanwhile, we have entered the decisive decade for our Earth’s climate—with just ten years to halve global emissions to meet the goals set by the Paris Agreement before we cause irreparable damage to our planet and all life it supports. In spite of these immense challenges, when I reflect on this past year I am inspired by the resilience and hope we’ve experienced at Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI). This is evidenced through impact made possible by the enduring support of our donors and tenacious partnership of other NGOs, companies, cities, states, and countries working together to drive a clean, prosperous, and secure low-carbon future.
    [Show full text]
  • Cleaner Energy, Greener Profits
    Cleaner Energy, Greener Profits: Fuel Cells as Cost-Effective Distributed Energy Resources Contents: Executive Summary . 2 By Joel N. Swisher, Ph.D., P.E. Introduction . 4 Rocky Mountain Institute Fuel cells: A small, clean,reliable This publication and its underlying research were funded power source . 6 by the grants from the W. Alton Jones Foundation, What is different Pew Charitable Trusts, and Energy Foundation. about today’s electricity problems? The author, a civil and mechanical engineer with a . 8 Stanford doctorate in civil and environmental engineering, is an authority on distributed generation Changing Trends in and leads RMI’s Energy and Resource Services team. the Electricity Industry . 9 Small is profitable: the economic benefits of distributed generation . 13 Early markets and commercialization paths . 32 Cleaner Energy, Greener Profits Executive Summary The electric power industry is undergoing centrally focused “generation-transmission- major changes that are reshaping the traditional distribution” companies into a more heteroge- roles of utilities, creating opportunities for new neous structure. The new industry will be made technologies, and redefining the scope and up of companies fulfilling various traditional character of government regulation. These roles, including independent power producers, changes are arising out of the interaction of electric service providers, energy brokers and several driving forces: marketers, transmission operators, and local distribution companies. • An emerging technological shift could offer distributed generation sources economic One of the most promising and exciting distrib- benefits unavailable to traditional, central- uted generation (DG) options is fuel cell ized sources of electricity. technology, which converts fuel to electricity at • Regulatory and public policy support is high efficiency, without combustion, and with growing for competition over traditional negligible emissions.
    [Show full text]
  • NATURAL CAPITALISM by Christopher Juniper
    Rocky Mountain Institute/volume xvii #1/spring 2001 RMISolutions newsletter F ROZEN ASSETS? ALASKAN OIL’S THREAT TO NATIONAL NERGY ECURITY E S by Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins “We must continue, I believe, to safeguard the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, one of the last truly wild places on Earth—the Serengeti of the Americas.” —PRESIDENT CLINTON, JANUARY 17, 2001 The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. photo: Galen Rowell S YOU READ THIS ISSUE OF RMI improve but compromise national energy Solutions, Congress is debating security and economic vitality, especially CONTENTS whether the oil potential when compared with alternatives that ben- A HYPERCAR MAKES ITS MOVE ... page 4 beneath the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge efit both and improve the environment. (ANWR) in Alaska is worth the environ- THE NATCAP CONSUMER ..... page 6 mental damage caused by extracting and FOLLOW THE MONEY burning it. Largely unexamined so far are First, the economics of drilling for Refuge A LETTER FROM OZ ....... page 8 more basic questions: Is it profitable? Is it oil look as unrewarding as its politics. For GDS IN EUROPE ........ page 10 necessary? Is drilling a good idea? Is there a the oil industry to invest, the Refuge must better way? hold a lot of oil, and the oil must sell for a BILL BROWNING,HONORARY AIA . page 11 The rationale for drilling in the Refuge is to high enough price for long enough to DEAR ROCKY .......... page 12 find a domestic oil supply, income for recover costs and earn profits. When JOHN TODD—WATER DOCTOR .. page 14 Alaska, and profit for private firms.
    [Show full text]
  • Rmisolutions F a L L 2 0 0 2 SIP
    Rocky Mountain Institute/volume xviii #3/Fall 2002 RRMMIISSoooolllluuuuttttiioioioonnnnssss newsletter S m all is Pro f it a ble Today’s electricity problems—and costs— are in the grid B y A mory B. Lovins For the first century of electrical power, as Profitable: and Jeremy Heiman generating plants became larger and more The Hidden centralized, delivery of power became Economic lectricity has been so successful more and more dependent on the grid. Benefits of providing the energy needs of citi- Driven by demand that escalated as costs Making Electrical Resources the Right Ezens and industry that many of us declined, the size of power plants grew Size, written by RMI cofounder and CEO can’t imagine life without it. Flip a switch, during the first years of the 20th century. Amory Lovins and six coauthors. Small Is a light comes on. Spin a dial, a fan begins The complexity and size of the grid Profitable builds on the assertion central to whirling. Crank a knob and a pump starts increased at the same time. But by the Lovins’s groundbreaking 1977 work, Soft pushing. Electricity has become a pervasive early 1990s, it was Energy Paths, arguing that energy efficien- and essential force in modern life because clear that utilities cy and cheaper electricity from small, it is a versatile, convenient, controllable, were no longer put- renewable sources of energy will gradually clean-to-use, and generally reliable form of ting many large replace the output of large, centralized fos- energy. Although only about one-sixth of power plants in their sil fuel-powered generating stations and the total energy delivered in the United shopping carts.
    [Show full text]
  • A WORLD of OPPORTUNITY Greening Energy in China and Beyond
    SUMMER 2016 VOL. 9 NO. 1 A WORLD OF OPPORTUNITY Greening Energy in China and Beyond HELPING CHINA INNOVATE NEW ENERGY SOLUTIONS TAKING CLEAN ENERGY TO O Y M UN ARBON DEVELOPING NATIONS K T C C A I O N R PLUS: AMORY’S ANGLE, RMI’S I W N E A M INNOVATION CENTER, AND MORE STIT U T R R O O TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMER 2016 /VOL. 9 NO. 1 GOING GLOBAL GOING GLOBAL CLEARING THE AIR IN CHINA AFFORDABLE, CLEAN ELECTRICITY FOR ALL Rocky Mountain Institute works with China to peak carbon emissions early and low, and to follow a clean energy pathway Rocky Mountain Institute’s work in sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean improves people’s well-being 14 for its large and growing economy 22 Table of Contents Table 1 Summer 2016 COLUMNS & DEPARTMENTS CEO LETTER MY RMI WALK THE WALK GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY: EXPANDING RECIPE FOR LASTING CHANGE: JOHN 33 YEARS OF IMPACT: LONGTIME Our Printing and Paper OUR IMPACT IN CHINA, AFRICA, THE “MAC” MCQUOWN ON WHAT MAKES STAFFER MICHAEL KINSLEY RETIRES. This issue of Solutions Journal is printed on elemental 02 HIS INFLUENCE CARRIES ON chlorine-free paper. Specifically, it is #2 FSC-certified CARIBBEAN, AND BEYOND 10 RMI TICK 28 CPC Matte Book and FSC-certified CPC Matter Cover, Sappi Papers in Minnesota, sourced from SFI-certified pulp. Using certified paper products promotes environmentally appropriate and economically viable AMORY’S ANGLE QUESTION & ANSWER INNOVATION BEACON management of the world’s forests. SOFT ENERGY PATHS: LESSONS OF GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE: MARIA VAN RMI’S INNOVATION CENTER: 5 REASONS THE FIRST 40 YEARS DER HOEVEN ON ENERGY SECURITY, IT’S THE OFFICE OF THE FUTURE 04 12 ENERGY ACCESS, AND COLLABORATION 30 Staff Editorial Director – Cindie Baker Writer/Editor – Laurie Guevara-Stone Writer/Editor – David Labrador RMI-CWR IN BRIEF GOING GLOBAL : cover iStock.com; left, iStock.com; right, courtesy Off-Grid:Electric left, iStock.com; iStock.com; cover : Art Director – Romy Purshouse NEWS FROM AROUND THE A PARTNER’S PERSPECTIVE: Lead Designer – Marijke Jongbloed 09 INSTITUTE 20 MR.
    [Show full text]
  • Electric Vehicles As Distributed Energy Resources
    ELECTRIC VEHICLES AS DISTRIBUTED ENERGY RESOURCES BY GARRETT FITZGERALD, CHRIS NELDER, AND JAMES NEWCOMB O Y M UN ARBON K T C C A I O N R I W N E A M STIT U T R R O O AUTHORS & ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AUTHORS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Garrett Fitzgerald, Chris Nelder, and James Newcomb The authors thank the following individuals and e-Lab * Authors listed alphabetically. All authors are from member organizations for offering their insights and Rocky Mountain Institute unless otherwise noted. perspectives on this work, which does not necessarily reflect their views. ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTORS Jim Lazar, Regulatory Assistance Project Rich Sedano, Regulatory Assistance Project Riley Allen, Regulatory Assistance Project Sarah Keay-Bright, Regulatory Assistance Project Jim Avery, San Diego Gas & Electric CONTACTS Greg Haddow, San Diego Gas & Electric Chris Nelder ([email protected]) San Diego Gas & Electric Load Analysis Group James Newcomb ([email protected]) Noel Crisostomo, California Public Utilities Commission Jonathan Walker, Rocky Mountain Institute SUGGESTED CITATION Chris Nelder, James Newcomb, and Garrett Fitzgerald, The authors also thank the following additional Electric Vehicles as Distributed Energy Resources individuals and organizations for offering their insights (Rocky Mountain Institute, 2016), and perspectives on this work: http://www.rmi.org/pdf_evs_as_DERs. Joel R. Pointon, JRP Charge Joyce McLaren, National Renewable Energy Laboratory DISCLAIMER e-Lab is a joint collaboration, convened by RMI, with participationfrom stakeholders across the electricity Editorial Director: Cindie Baker industry. e-Lab is not a consensus organization, and Editor: David Labrador the views expressed in this document are not intended Art Director: Romy Purshouse to represent those of any individual e-Lab member or Images courtesy of iStock unless otherwise noted.
    [Show full text]
  • What Can We Do to Fix the Climate Problem? AMORY B
    What can we do to fix the climate problem? AMORY B. LOVINS, CEO, ROCKY MOUNTAIN INSTITUTE (WWW.RMI.ORG) Invited draft for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 31 Oct 2006, which printed a condensation Climate protection, like the Hubble Space Telescope’s mirror, got spoiled by a sign error: in fact, climate solutions are not costly but profitable, because saving fuel costs less than buying fuel. Many leading companies are making billions of dollars’ profit by cutting their carbon intensity or emissions at rates of 5–8%/y.1 When politicians who lament climate protection’s supposed costs, burdens, and sacrifices join the parallel universe of practitioners who routinely achieve profits, jobs, and competitive advantage by wasting less fuel, the political obstacles will dissolve. Stabilizing carbon emissions requires only increasing energy productivity ($ GDP per GJ) by 2%/y rather than the canonically assumed 1%/y; stabilizing climate needs only ~3%/y. The U.S. has long achieved ~3%/y; California, a point faster; China, a point faster still for >20 y (until 1997, then nearly 8%/y to 2001, then a temporary reversal). Raising global adoption to ~3%/y will be profitable and not so difficult if we pay careful attention to “barrier-busting”—turning the 60–80 known market failures in buying energy efficiency into business opportunities.2 Energy efficiency is not the only, but certainly the main, tool for profitable climate protection, and indeed could suffice if pursued to its full modern potential, typically with expanding rather than diminishing returns (i.e., radical savings at lower capital cost, now demonstrated in a couple of dozen sectors but awaiting a revolution in design pedagogy and practice).3 Detailed assess- ments show how to save half of U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • How Big Is the Energy Efficiency Resource?
    Environmental Research Letters EDITORIAL • OPEN ACCESS How big is the energy efficiency resource? To cite this article: Amory B Lovins 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 090401 View the article online for updates and enhancements. This content was downloaded from IP address 147.202.68.137 on 06/05/2019 at 16:06 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 090401 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad965 EDITORIAL How big is the energy efficiency resource? OPEN ACCESS Amory B Lovins PUBLISHED Rocky Mountain Institute, 22830 Two Rivers Road, Basalt CO 81621, United States of America 18 September 2018 E-mail: [email protected] Original content from this Keywords: increasing returns, efficiency, climate, integrative design, whole systems, expanding returns work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Abstract Any further distribution of Most economic theorists assume that energy efficiency—the biggest global provider of energy services—is a this work must maintain attribution to the limited and dwindling resource whose price- and policy-driven adoption will inevitably deplete its potential author(s) and the title of and raise its cost. Influenced by that theoretical construct, most traditional analysts and deployers of energy the work, journal citation and DOI. efficiency see and exploit only a modest fraction of the worthwhile efficiency resource, saving less and paying more than they should. Yet empirically, modern energy efficiency is, and shows every sign of durably remaining, an expanding-quantity, declining-cost resource. Its adoption is constrained by major but correctable market failures and increasingly motivated by positive externalities. Most importantly, in both newbuild and retrofit applications, its quantity is severalfold larger and its cost lower than most in the energy and climate communities realize.
    [Show full text]
  • Energy Efficiency, Taxonomic Overview
    Copyright (c) 2004 Rocky Mountain Institute. All rights reserved. Licensed to and first published in: A.B. Lovins, "Energy Efficiency, Taxonomic Overview," Encyclopedia of Energy 2:383-401 (2004), 6 vols., San Diego and Oxford (UK): Elsevier, www.elsevier.com/locate/encycofenergy (hard copy) and www.sciencedirect.com/science/referenceworks/012176480X (downloadable). This article is RMI Publication #E04-02 and can be downloaded free from: www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid171.php#E04-02 Please note the following updates to the published article: p. 396, col. 2, full para. 2 ("Perhaps..."): The vehicle efficiency stated is from a simulation of on-road performance, obtained by multiplying each vector in the standard EPA test cycles by 1.3. The equivalent EPA adjusted efficiency (the kind used for official efficiency ratings and shown on the window stickers of market vehicles) is 2.06 L-equivalent per 100 km, 48.5 km/L-equivalent, or 114 miles per U.S. gallon-equivalent. Resimulation in 2004 with a gasoline hybrid-electric powertrain as efficient as that of the 2004 Toyota Prius, and conservatively adjusted to all-wheel-drive operation like the fuel-cell version, yields simulated EPA adjusted efficiency of 3.56 L/100 km, 28.1 km/L, or 66 miles per U.S. gallon. p. 397, col. 2, line 5: for 8.6 read 6. p. 401, col. 2, lines 3-6: the Lovins et al. 2002 reference Small Is Profitable can be obtained at least cost via www.smallisprofitable.org. p. 401, col. 2, lines 7-10: the Lovins et al. 2004 reference should read: Lovins, A.B., Datta, E.K., Bustnes, O.-E., Koomey, J.G., & Glasgow, N.
    [Show full text]