MicroHoo: Lessons from a takeover attempt Nihat Aktas, Eric de Bodt, and Richard Roll This draft: July 14, 2010 ABSTRACT On February 1, 2008, Microsoft offered $43.7 billion for Yahoo. This was a milestone in the Microsoft versus Google battle to control the internet search industry and the related online advertising market. We provide an in-depth analysis of this failed takeover attempt. We attempt to identify the sources of overbidding (signaling, hubris-overconfidence, rational overpayment) and we show that the corporate control market has a disciplinary dimension but of an incidental and latent nature. Our results highlight the existence of takeover anticipation premiums in the stock prices of the potential targets. JEL classification: G34 Keywords: Overbidding; Competitive advantage; Rational overpayment; Latent competition Aktas de Bodt Roll Univ. Lille Nord de EMLYON Business UCLA Anderson France School 110 Westwood Plaza ECCCS Address 23 av. Guy de Collongue Los Angeles, CA 90095- 1 place Déliot - BP381 69130 Ecully 1481 59020 Lille Cédex France USA France Voice +33-4-7833-7847 +33-3-2090-7477 +1-310-825-6118 Fax +33-4-7833-7928 +33-3-2090-7629 +1-310-206-8404 E-mail
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[email protected] lille2.fr 1 MicroHoo: Lessons from a takeover attempt 1. Introduction Fast Internet access, software as a service, cloud computing, netbooks, mobile platforms, one-line application stores,…, the first decade of the twenty-first century brought all the ingredients of a new technological revolution. These new technologies share one common denominator: the Internet. Two large competitors are face to face.