Kosovo Security Force Post 2012

American University in Kosova Rochester Institute of Technology “Submitted as a Capstone Project Report in partial fulfillment of a Master of Science in Professional Studies at the Rochester Institute of Technology” Kosovo Security Force Post 2012 Sinan Geci Masters of Science Degree in Professional Studies Center for Multidisciplinary Studies Rochester Institute of Technology and American University in Kosova May 6, 2011 Kosovo Security Force Post 2012 Page 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgement………………………………………………………………………………...5 List of Abbreviations ……………………………………………………………………………..6 Executive Summary……………………………………………………………………………….7 1. A Short Military History in the Western Balkans ……………………………………………..9 1.1 North Atlantic Treaty Organization – NATO and its immense role in Kosovo……..13 2. Kosovo Security Force Historical Background……………………………………………….17 2.1 Post Independence Period in Kosovo ……………………………………………….18 2.2. Security Vacuum in Kosovo………………………………………………………...19 2.3. Stand up of the Kosovo Security Force …………………………………………….20 2.4. KFOR Reduction and the Threat to Kosovo ………………………………………..22 3. Regional Comparison of the Security Forces/Military and the Relevance to Kosovo………..24 3.1. Learning from Neighbouring Countries……………………………………………..26 4. Survey analysis conducted in the Ministry of Kosovo Security Force and with the Members of Assembly.………………………………………………………………………………..29 5. Reach Full Operational Capabilities (FOC) as Soon as Possible……………………………..41 5.1 Recommendation: Equipment to Enhance KSF Capability………………………….42 6. Constitutional Review in Kosovo: Establish the Kosovo Defense Force……………………..45 6.1. Comparative approach with other Balkan States and the Establishment of the Kosovo Defense Force…………………………………………………………….46 6.2: Missions and Tasks of KSF ………………………………………………………..49 7. KSF Defense Budget Scenarios 2012 – 2017…………………………………………………51 7.1. KSF Budget 2009 – 2011…………………..............................................................51 7.2 Medium Term Expenditure Framework 2011- 2013……………………………......53 7.3 Long Term Expenditure or Investment 2014- 2015: Kosovo in NATO…………….55 8. Final Discussion and Recommendations……………………………………………………...57 8.1 Kosovo Security Force and its Full Operational Capability…………………..……57 8.2 Post 2012 KSF Mandate………………..…………………………………………..58 Kosovo Security Force Post 2012 Page 3 8.3 New Legislation for Kosovo’s Defense Force ……………………………………..59 8.4 Strategic Regional Compatibility: Euroatlantic Integration……………………......60 8.5 Future Defense Budget Enhancement ………………………………..…………….60 LIST OF REFERENCES………………………………………………………………………...63 APPENDIX A. Questions conducted with the personnel in the Ministry for the Kosovo Security Force; Question 1 was sent to 108 Members of Assembly of the Republic of Kosovo ………………………………………………………………………...67 APPENDIX B. Armed/Security Forces in Eight Western Balkan States………………………..70 APPENDIX C. Military/Security Expenditure in Eight Western Balkan States………………...73 List of Figures Figure 1.1 Ethnic Albania Before Balkan Wars 1912-1913……………………………………..10 Figure 1.2: Balkan Borders Alterations Before and After Balkan Wars 1912-1913…………….11 Figure 1.3. Former Yugoslav Federation Before and After Breakup……………………………15 Figure 1.4. Kosovo in the World………………………………………………………………...15 Figure 2.1: KFOR Personnel Reduction 1999 – 2010…………………………………………...20 Figure 2.2: KSF Build Up 2009-2010…………………………………………………………...21 Figure 3.1: Where Kosovo Stands in European Military/ Security Capabilities ………………..27 Figure 4.1: The Following Response Come from Questions Sent to the Members of the Assembly of Kosovo……………………………………………………………….29 Figure 4.2: The Following Responses Come from Questions Posed to the MKSF Personnel…..30 Figure 4.3: Kosovo Actions as KFOR Reduces its Troops………...……………………………31 Figure 4.4: What Kosovo Needs to do After 2012……………………..………………………..31 Figure 4.5: Will KSF go Through Another Transformation After 2012 …………………...…...32 Figure 4.6: KSF Capacity Enhancement ………………………………………………………...33 Kosovo Security Force Post 2012 Page 4 Figure 4.7: KSF Issues After KFOR is no Longer Operational in Kosovo ……………………..33 Figure 4.8: Kosovo in Regional Security Cooperation Initiatives ………………………………34 Figure 4.9: KSF Appropriate Personnel After 2012……………………………………………..34 Figure 4.10: What is Most Important for KSF After 2012 ..…………………………………….35 Figure 4.11: KSF Needs in the Next Two Years ………………………………………………..36 Figure 4.12: KSF Needs in the Next Four Years…………………………………………….…..36 Figure 6.1: Military Personnel Comparison in Eight Western Balkan Countries………………..47 Figure 7.1: Kosovo Security Force Expenditures 2009 – 2011 (Million Euros)………………...52 Figure 7.2 Security Force Expenditure (% of GDP) in Kosovo ………………………………...52 Figure 7.3. Military/Security Expenditure (% of GDP) in Eight Western Balkan Countries……54 Figure 7.4 Bulgarian Armed Forces Personnel…………………………………………………..56 Figure 7.5 Romanian Armed Forces Personnel………………………………………………….56 Figure 8.1. Military/Security Expenditure (% of GDP) in Eight Western Balkan Countries……61 List of Tables Table 2.1: MKSF/KSF Personnel and Profile……………………………………………………22 Table 4.1: Major findings from the Capstone Project Survey…………………………………...37 Table 5.1: KSF composition……………………………………………………………………..42 Table 6.1: Military Personnel in Eight Western Balkan Countries (Based on the last available data) ……………………………………………………………………….47 Table 7.1: MKSF/KSF budget trends …………………………………………………………...51 Table 7.2: Mid-term Expenditure Framework 2011- 2013………………………………………53 Table 8.1: Assumption of Annual GDP Growth and Annual Budget Increase for KSF/Defense Force 2011 – 2017 ………………………………………………………………......62 Kosovo Security Force Post 2012 Page 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Capstone Project would not be complete without acknowledgement of all of those who gave me support in this Capstone Project. They provided me with all necessary preconditions for this project to be productively completed. First, and foremost, I would like thank my supervising Capstone instructor and mentor, Dr. Brian Bowen. I would like to express my humble gratitude to Dr. Bowen for his guidance, patience during my countless consultations as I progressed, and for his invaluable expertise offered to me on this Capstone Project. I would like to thank my Capstone Consultants, Bill Wechsler, PhD, and Mr. Tafil Avdiu. Mr. Avdiu has offered to me for this Capstone Project his many years of military expertise. I would like to thank my family for supporting me both emotionally and financially whenever I needed them. I would also like to thank my fiancée for her lack of complaint and her precious support during my studies at AUK. Finally, I would like to thank the USAID for giving me the scholarship and the opportunity to be taught by extraordinary RIT instructors. I thank all the RIT instructors including the AUK President, Dr. Hall. Kosovo Security Force Post 2012 Page 6 List of Abbreviations A 5 Adriatic Charter CIA Central Intelligence Agency C2 Control and command DCAF The Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces EU European Union FOC Full Operational Capabilities GDP Gross Domestic Product ISAF International Security Assistance Force IMP International Military Presence ISSR Internal Security Sector Review KCC Kosova Chamber of Commerce KCSS Kosovar Centre for Security Studies KSF Kosovo Security Force KLA Kosovo Liberation Army KP Kosovo Police KPC Kosovo Protection Corps MA Members of the Assembly MKSF Ministry for Kosovo Security Force NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation PfP Partnership for Peace RTK Radio Television of Kosovo SSR Security Sector Reform UNDP United Nations Development Program Kosovo Security Force Post 2012 Page 7 Executive Summary Since the end of the last war in Kosovo, June 1999, Kosovo has been under the sole defense of thousands of NATO troops who have had the task and duty from security and public order to border security and protection of all residents. Given the fact that NATO and KFOR troops are reducing their presence in Kosovo rapidly, the latter needs to act and strengthen its own security and defense capability in order not to allow any security vacuum in the territory of the Republic of Kosovo in the post 2012 period. Kosovo has been through security challenges, from having no security structure to building up a modern security force whose mandate is mostly non-conventional military duties, but only humanitarian and civil protection tasks and missions. However, this Capstone Project recommends the following actions to the Government of Kosovo: 1. KSF has to reach full operational capabilities (FOC) as soon as possible 2. Implement constitutional review Kosovo’s Future Defense Force 3. To accelerate strategic regional compatibility: euroatlantic integration initiatives starting from membership into Adriatic Charter (Figure 4.8) 4. Consider the defense budget scenarios 2012 – 2017 , raging from € 41,032,553 to € 86,182,381 Assumption of Annual GDP Growth and Annual Budget Increase for KSF/Defense Force 2011 – 2017 4.5% GDP annual growth in 4.5% annual budget increase 16% annual budget increase Kosovo for KSF/Defense Force to till 2017 to nearly reach the reflect the GDP growth average 1.8% of GDP of seven Western Balkan Countries military expenditures 2011 – € 3.80 Billion 2011 – € 35,372,891 2011 – € 35,372,891 2012 – € 3.97 Billion 2012 – € 36,964,671 2012 – € 41,032,553 2013 – € 4.14 Billion 2013 – € 38,628,081 2013 – € 47,597,762 2014 – € 4.33 Billion 2014 – € 40,366,344 2014 – € 55,213,404 2015 – € 4.53 Billion 2015 – € 42,182,830 2015 – € 64,047,548

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