DT Derrick Brown, Auburn

2020 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

APRIL 8, 2020

NFL Draft 2020 Scouting Report: DT Derrick Brown, Auburn

*DL grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

I keep seeing Derrick Brown going as a top 10 overall pick in EVERY rankings service or mock draft. After previewing him in summer of 2019 and then again pre-2020 Senior Bowl/Combine time and then looking at our computer scouting models and then watching game tape deeper – I can only ask, aggravatedly…”Why?” Why is he a top 10 overall universally? I don’t get it.

First off, there are a couple of other defensive tackle prospects just as big, but more athletic…or a bit smaller but more athletic, and all more productive in college. There’s a pool of nice/solid DT prospects – so why Derrick Brown clearly above them all? His Combine was not great…his times in speed-agility. His college numbers were nothing special. What is it?

I think what we have here is -- a five-star prospect from high school, proclaimed as great for a few years out of the SEC, and playing for a highly respected program…thus all the elements are there for ‘hive mind hype’. I mean, South Carolina DT prospect Javon Kinlaw is RIGHT THERE in the SEC and is as good/better – why isn’t he 50/50 ahead of Brown on mocks? Why does brown go top 10 over Kinlaw in like 90%+ of the mocks?

The ‘he’s supposed to be this good’ and ‘they say…’ herd mentality pushes this but then add to that Brown is a terrific young man – the 2019 CLASS Award winner for all of college football…the award for top performance on the field + in the class room + in the community. Why wouldn’t we love him? How could you disagree on him being the best DT prospect?

Sure, I’d want my fictional daughter to marry him but I’m not sure I want to use a top 10 or top 30 or top 100 overall draft pick on him. He’s a great guy/human, but as a player, I see two issues here…

1) The Combine

Running a 5.16 40-time is ‘slow’ for a DT, and I get he is 326 pounds (so, for that size he’s fairly fast) but he’s still moving at a 5.16 (1.78 10-yard) clip. Utah 330-pound DT Leki Fotu ran a 5.15/1.80, similar time – should he be a top 10 pick?

Maybe Brown isn’t as 40-time fast, but DTs don’t run 40-yards…maybe he’s more agile (you ask)? Of all the DT prospects at the 2020 NFL Combine…Brown posted the slowest three-cone at 8.22.

I’m not saying Brown is a bust because of these slow speed-agility times, but I am saying you’re not getting an elite athlete with your (supposed) top 10 pick here. He moves well for his size. He’s a big guy. So, maybe his tape is better…and that will show how he ‘powers’ his way to greatness?

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2020 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

APRIL 8, 2020

#2) The Tape

I focused on Brown’s games vs. LSU and Alabama to get a real feel for him versus NFL-level interior linemen. I walked away with this simple thought/statement to try to summarize him/his play – “Nice surge…and then done.”

“Nice surge…and then done.”

What does this mean?

Brown gets a nice jump off the snap. A fair amount of times he gets that initial surge and knocks his blocker backwards a step or two…and then is a handful to holdoff as he surges. But he usually does get contained and locked up and the play happens wherever it happens, as Brown is a bystander. The initial surge looks cool/promising. The surge might have him make a play or two in a game, but mostly it is all surge…then nothing. He has a burst and then the energy meter drains fast, and the play is over without Brown having any impact.

Against LSU 2020, he played a 3-4 NT role mostly. In the 1st-half he was sending the opposing center or guard back a step or two a bunch…it looked great but didn’t result in any real problem for LSU running their offense. In the 2nd-half, there was no winning surge like the 1st-half. He expended all his energy in the 1st-half, it seemed. It’s asking a lot for a big slow guy to give 150% every snap. When Brown does, he wears down quickly…as you would expect. He’s not a great athlete (in this context), and any 300+ pounder is in jeopardy of burning out too quickly…that’s why they rotate D-Linemen a bunch in the NFL…and then how valuable is a guy playing 60% of the snaps on the D-Line? Top 10 in the draft/highly paid? Or are you better drafting big, disposable, interchangeable bodies later in a draft?

Against LSU 2020, when he moved out to 4-3 DE for some snaps…he was useless. A guy with no speed or agility trying to rush a tackle using force and moving slow off the edge…it doesn’t work.

Against Alabama 2020, Brown was worse. He was playing 4-3 DT and the Crimson Tide OGs and OTs ate him alive/neutralized him with ease. He was credited with 3.5 TFLs in that game, nearly 30%+ of his entire TFL count in 2019 – but I swear, I saw one TFL and that was it. He did get his hands on someone else’s TFL, so he probably got credit for that. A statistician must have been a huge fan, because outside of 1-2 plays, I didn’t see Brown do anything…it’s like he was barely there. It looked like his best game, statistically/on paper…but I thought he was nonexistent on the tape. He couldn’t beat the Alabama linemen the best snap he ever played, like 99% of the time he was not a factor…but this is the guy who is going top 10 overall? A bad Combine numbers guy who has a decent surge but nothing else? You could’ve signed Andrew Billings as a free agent this year and gotten a way stronger surge guy.

Some NFL team is about to spend way too much draft capital and payroll on a really solid, but non- impactful DT prospect who is a really nice guy.

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2020 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

APRIL 8, 2020

Derrick Brown, Through the Lens of Our DT Scouting Algorithm:

46 career games…12.5 career sacks? That’s pretty weak for a supposed all-world DT prospect. Kentucky’s little-known/lauded DT Calvin Taylor (who we have a scouting report on/posted) had 8.5 sacks in SEC play in one season (2019)…and he’s a 6’8”/310 former high school hoops star, but he gets no media play but Brown is top 10 in the NFL Draft? OK, makes a ton of sense…

Javon Kinlaw, also from the SEC, had 10.0 sacks the last two seasons (22 games). Why are Kinlaw and Taylor more effective getting to the QB in the same conference? With Kinlaw getting doubled a bunch.

Brown did nab 33 TFLs in his 46-game career, but that runs 0.72 TFLs per game. The other top SEC DTs I mentioned had about the same pace the last two years of them starting (.65-.70 per game ranges).

Again, I’m not saying Brown is bad…just trying to say we might need to pump the brakes on his hype.

2020 NFL Combine Data:

6’4.5”/326, 9” hands, 34.25” arms

5.16 40-time, 1.78 three-cone

4.79 shuttle, 8.22 three-cone (worst among all Combine DT prospects)

28 bench reps, 27” vertical, 9’0” broad jump

The Historical DT Prospects to Whom Derrick Brown Most Compares Within Our System:

If Brown is the next Linval Joseph, you’d be fine with that…but would you spend a top 10 NFL Draft pick?

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2020 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

APRIL 8, 2020

DT Last First Draft College H W Power Speed Pass Tackle NT Grade Yr Strgth Agility Rusher rating Profile 7.268 Brown Derrick 2020 Auburn 76.5 326 10.62 4.13 7.05 8.65 8.20 6.429 Joseph Linval 2010 E. Carolina 76.4 328 10.52 3.62 5.63 6.31 10.00 5.587 Simon Deon 2015 NW State 76.3 321 9.37 5.55 4.13 6.22 8.24 5.173 Williams Xavier 2015 N. Iowa 73.6 320 8.77 3.82 6.96 7.33 7.26 4.820 Nix III Louis 2014 Notre Dame 74.3 331 8.61 0.74 3.58 5.53 8.65 1.872 Pierce Michael 2016 Samford 72.3 329 7.78 3.89 3.64 3.57 8.36 4.746 Kerr Zach 2014 Delaware 73.3 326 8.08 4.14 4.11 6.33 7.71

*A score of 8.00+ is where we see a stronger correlation of DTs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system, and indicates a greater probability of becoming an NFL elite DT.

All of the DT ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances.

Power-Strength Metrics = A combination of several measurements. An attempt to classify the DT prospect as more of a battle-in-the-trenches type of DT, and/or a DT prospect who has nose tackle capabilities.

Speed-Agility Metrics = A combination of several speed, agility, size measurements. A unique measuring system to look for DTs who profile for quickness, and/or a DT prospect who might have some DE capabilities.

Pass-Rusher Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify whether a particular DT is likely to achieve high sack totals in the NFL. We know the ‘system’/scheme the DT goes on to play in has a part in future success...but so do the player’s skills and performance history.

Tackling Rating = A combination of physical measurables, and college performance, graded historically for future NFL profiling. In the simplest of terms, this is an attempt to classify the DT as one more likely to be involved in a heavy amount of tackles, tackles for a loss, and forced fumbles. Lower scoring DTs in this sub-category tend to be more pure ‘pluggers’, and not as active on the stat sheet. It also gives some insight of the ‘toughness’ of a player, if it is possible to quantify that (this is our attempt to).

NT Profile = This is an attempt to show which of these DT prospects has a profile to become a pure nose tackle/‘space-eater’ in the middle. It is not a 1–10 scale rating of a prospect’s skill/profile, it’s an attempt to point us in a direction of what this DT can be useful as (or not). Some DT prospects will grade off the charts on the NT profile, essentially a worst-case scenario of “put him in the middle and just let him be a wall.” There is NFL value in that ‘ability’.

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2020 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

APRIL 8, 2020

2020 NFL Draft Outlook:

I keep seeing that he’s top 10 overall projection, but so was Alabama DT Jonathan Allen a few years ago…considered top 5 even. Allen then fell to #18 overall, in a shocking draft day development. Sometimes these slower 40-time DTs get overhyped by the media and then reality strikes.

If I were an NFL GM, I’d love to have Brown as a 3-4 DT/NT for me team – but I just am NOT paying a top 10 or top 100 price for a generically good/big DT/NT.

NFL Outlook:

Brown is NFL-worthy. He’ll be a starter. He’ll be forgotten in short order like many Auburn-Alabama DT hype guys of the past few years. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player, just a badly overvalued asset.

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Signature______Date______4/8/2020

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