A Sensitivity Analysis of the Value of a Life Year Estimates
journal of global health Economics in “Global Health 2035”: a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates PAPERS VIEWPOINTS Angela Y Chang1, Lisa A Robinson2,3, 2,3,4 Background In “Global health 2035: a world converging within a James K Hammitt , Stephen C generation,” The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) 2 Resch adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well–being. 1 Department of Global Health and Population, To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the Boston, MA, USA value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- 2 Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, and middle–income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life MA, USA expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. 3 Center for Risk Analysis, Harvard T.H. Chan Methods The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in popu- School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA lation life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for chil- 4 Toulouse School of Economics, University of dren ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate Toulouse Capitole, Toulouse, France to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. Findings We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs.
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