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Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool Final Report for the ‘Plant Sure Environmentally Safe Ornamental Plant Scheme Plant’ Project

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Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool Final Report for the ‘Plant Sure Environmentally Safe Ornamental Plant Scheme Plant’ Project Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool Final Report for the ‘Plant Sure Environmentally Safe Ornamental Plant Scheme Plant’ project Nola Hancock, Victoria Graham, Vanessa Adams, Tim Maher, Anthony Manea and Michelle Leishman Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University 22 March 2018 Please cite this publication as: Hancock, N., Graham, V., Adams, V., Maher, T., Manea, A. and Leishman, M. (2018). Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool Final Report for the ‘Plant Sure Environmentally Safe Ornamental Plant Scheme Plant’ project. Macquarie University, Sydney For further correspondence contact: [email protected] i Table of Contents Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................... ii List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ iii Acronyms Used in This Report ............................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. iv Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. v Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 Weed Risk Assessment Tools ....................................................................................................... 2 Scope of project .......................................................................................................................... 2 Objectives ................................................................................................................................... 3 Methods ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Identification of plant risk assessment tools ................................................................................. 3 Design & development of the plant risk assessment tool .............................................................. 4 Invasive plants listing - scientific name .................................................................................. 6 Prohibited invasive plants ........................................................................................................ 6 Restricted invasive plants ........................................................................................................ 6 Weed species of Western Australia ......................................................................................... 6 Testing the accuracy of the risk assessment tool ........................................................................... 9 Results & Recommendations ................................................................................................. 12 Results of the OPDST accuracy testing ........................................................................................ 12 Recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 18 References............................................................................................................................... 20 Appendix 1............................................................................................................................... 22 Appendix 2............................................................................................................................... 23 Appendix 3............................................................................................................................... 27 Appendix 4............................................................................................................................... 28 ii List of Figures Figure 1: Flow chart showing the screening process used to generate the list of weed risk assessment tools that were assessed against the review criteria. ...................... 4 Figure 2. Frequency histogram of the scores of the 58 species evaluated in the trial of the Plant Sure Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool divided into categories of invasive or non-invasive to assess accuracy of the tool. Invasive species are those that have been reported as being invasive anywhere globally. Non-invasive represents species not reported as invasive anywhere globally. ............................. 12 Figure 3. The scores of the 58 species evaluated in the trial of the Plant Sure Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool, categorised in NSW as invasive, naturalised and non-naturalised .............................................................................. 13 Figure 4. Scatter plot showing the correlation between the pre-screen score and the main screen score for the 58 plants assessed in the trial of the Plant Sure Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool. ............................................................... 14 List of Tables Table 1. Commonwealth and State weed lists of noxious weeds and prohibited plants .. 6 Table 2: List of the 58 species evaluated in the trial assessment. ................................. 10 Table 3. Comparison of the pre-screen and main screen results. ................................. 14 Table 4. Response rates of the 24 questions included in the Plant Sure Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool. ................................................................................... 15 Table 5. Example of a risk matrix to be completed after the evaluation process ........... 17 iii Acronyms Used in This Report OPDST Ornamental Plant Decision Support Tool NSW New South Wales RFQ Request for Quotation PRE Plant Right Evaluation Tool WRA Weed Risk Assessment Acknowledgements This research was funded by the Environmental Trust via a grant administered by a consortium led by the Nursery & Garden Industry NSW & ACT (NGINA) and by the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage. iv Executive Summary Invasive species incur significant costs to natural environments and economies. The latest Australia State of the Environment Report (2016) describes the impact of invasive species as undiminishing and increasing when combined with other stressors (Cresswell and Murphy 2017). Horticulture accounts for a substantial proportion of the plant species introduced into Australia (Gallagher & Leishman 2015), and the horticultural industry is the source of the majority of exotics that have become invasive. Whilst strict importation controls currently regulate the arrival of new exotic plant species, the sale of existing exotics is not regulated and there is the potential that some of these will become garden ‘escapees’ and invasive. The Plant Sure Environmentally Safe Ornamental Plant Scheme project is a collaborative undertaking that aims to limit the supply or discourage the use of non- native plants with high potential for invasiveness. This report introduces the Plant Sure Decision Support Tool (OPDST) and follows on from Maher et al (2017) wherein the development process of the OPDST is discussed. The Plant Right Evaluation Tool (PRE) (Conser et al 2015) was identified as the most suitable template for the Plant Sure OPDST. Several modifications were made to the PRE to adjust for Australian conditions and to fit the requirements of the Plant Sure project. The key modifications were: I. A pre-screen assessment was added to circumvent a full assessment if the plant is listed on any Commonwealth, State or Territory prohibited plant list or if it scores 8 or greater in the pre-screen questions; II. The inclusion of questions that assess species against the bioclimatic zones of the target region (NSW); III. A cultivar tool was added as an extension. The first question in the main tool draws out cultivars to be evaluated using the cultivar-specific tool; IV. Consideration of hybridisation potential of the species based on available evidence of other species in the genus hybridising with invasive species in the target region; and V. An assessment to identify if the area of climate suitability for the species is projected to increase under climate change. The tool was designed to balance the amount of time it takes to complete (i.e. the number of questions) and the statistical ability to predict invasiveness. For example, the final set of questions only retained plant biological questions (e.g. seed size and plant form) that contributed most to statistical prediction. In summary, the OPDST is a series of 24 questions that evaluates and accepts or rejects species according to their risk of invasiveness. The OPDST achieved 100% accuracy in evaluating 58 trial species; either rejecting them as invasive or accepting them as non-invasive, excluding four species requiring further evaluation. There was a v high average response rate for all questions (90%), and on average it took 115 minutes- to complete one evaluation. Whilst the tool is easy to use and can be adapted to any scheme environment, its effectiveness is limited by the quality and quantity of data that is sourced and available. It is therefore recommended that assessments are undertaken and verified by a panel of experts and that completed assessments
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