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Climate Change Impacts CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Josh Pederson / SIMoN NOAA Matt Wilson/Jay Clark, NOAA NMFS AFSC NMFSNMFS Southwest Southwest Fisheries Fisheries Science Science Center Center GULF OF THE FARALLONES AND CORDELL BANK NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARIES Report of a Joint Working Group of the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries Advisory Councils Editors John Largier, Brian Cheng, and Kelley Higgason June 2010 Working Group Members Sarah Allen, Point Reyes National Seashore Bob Breen, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Advisory Council Jenifer Dugan, Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara Brian Gaylord, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Edwin Grosholz, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Daphne Hatch, Golden Gate National Recreation Area Tessa Hill, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Jaime Jahncke, PRBO Conservation Science; CBNMS Advisory Council Judith Kildow, Ocean Economics Program Raphael Kudela, University of California, Santa Cruz John Largier (Chair), UC Davis; Bodega Marine Lab; GFNMS Advisory Council Lance Morgan, Marine Conservation Biology Institute; CBNMS Advisory Council David Revell, Philip Williams and Associates David Reynolds, National Weather Service Frank Schwing, National Marine Fisheries Service William Sydeman, Farallon Institute John Takekawa, United States Geological Survey Staff to the Working Group Brian Cheng, Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank national marine sanctuaries; UC Davis Kelley Higgason, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Sanctuary Superintendents Maria Brown, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Dan Howard, Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary Acknowledgements The editors would like to thank the Influential Scientific Information (ISI) Reviewers who donated their time and expertise as peer reviewers of this document: Sam Johnson, United States Geological Survey Adam Parris, Bay Conservation and Development Commission Curt Storlazzi, United States Geological Survey Adrienne Sutton, Oregon State University, PISCO The editors would also like to thank NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries for providing funding support toward the coordination of this document, and all of the agencies, organizations, and institutions involved that provided numerous in-kind staff hours toward the completion of this document. i Contributors Josh Adams, United States Geological Survey Sarah Allen, Point Reyes National Seashore Dane Behrens, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Steven Bograd, National Marine Fisheries Service Russell Bradley, PRBO Conservation Science Bob Breen, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Advisory Council Brian Cheng, Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank national marine sanctuaries; UC Davis James Cloern, United States Geological Survey Jeffrey Dorman, University of California, Berkeley Jenifer Dugan, Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara Meredith Elliot, PRBO Conservation Science Marisol Garcia-Reyes, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Brian Gaylord, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Mike Graham, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories Edwin Grosholz, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Daphne Hatch, Golden Gate National Recreation Area Annaliese Hettinger, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Kelley Higgason, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Tessa Hill, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Julie Howar, PRBO Conservation Science Jaime Jahncke, PRBO Conservation Science; CBNMS Advisory Council Heather Kerkering, Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System Judith Kildow, Ocean Economics Program Raphael Kudela, University of California, Santa Cruz John Largier, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab; GFNMS Advisory Council Lance Morgan, Marine Conservation Biology Institute; CBNMS Advisory Council Kerry Nickols, University of California, Davis; Bodega Marine Lab Tim Reed, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary David Revell, Philip Williams and Associates Karen Reyna, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary David Reynolds, National Weather Service Jan Roletto, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Jennifer Roth, PRBO Conservation Science Mary Jane Schramm, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Frank Schwing, National Marine Fisheries Service William Sydeman, Farallon Institute John Takekawa, United States Geological Survey Sage Tezak, Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary Pete Warzybok, PRBO Conservation Science ii Table of Contents Executive Summary........................................................................................................................ 1 1. Introduction................................................................................................................................. 8 2. Background............................................................................................................................... 10 3. Physical Effects of Climate Change ......................................................................................... 13 3.1 Atmosphere......................................................................................................................... 14 3.1.1 Wind............................................................................................................................. 15 3.1.2 Storms .......................................................................................................................... 16 3.1.3 Clouds .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 Precipitation and Land Runoff............................................................................................ 17 3.3 Ocean Currents and Waves................................................................................................. 19 3.3.1 Ocean Circulation ........................................................................................................ 20 3.3.2 Waves........................................................................................................................... 21 3.3.3 Coastal Upwelling........................................................................................................ 23 3.3.4 Estuarine Circulation ................................................................................................... 25 3.4 Sea Level Rise..................................................................................................................... 27 3.5 Coastal Erosion ................................................................................................................... 32 3.6 Ocean Water Properties ...................................................................................................... 34 3.6.1 Temperature ................................................................................................................. 34 3.6.2 Ocean Acidification ..................................................................................................... 37 3.6.3 Salinity ......................................................................................................................... 40 3.6.4 Nutrients....................................................................................................................... 40 3.6.5 Dissolved Oxygen........................................................................................................ 41 4. Responses in Biological Processes ........................................................................................... 43 4.1 Physiology .......................................................................................................................... 43 4.2 Range Shifts........................................................................................................................ 45 4.3 Phenology ........................................................................................................................... 47 4.4 Population Connectivity...................................................................................................... 48 4.5 Evolutionary Response ....................................................................................................... 49 5. Responses in Marine Organisms............................................................................................... 50 5.1 Plankton .............................................................................................................................. 50 5.2 Macroalgae and Plants ........................................................................................................ 53 5.3 Invertebrates........................................................................................................................ 55 5.4 Fish...................................................................................................................................... 57 5.5 Seabirds............................................................................................................................... 59 5.6 Marine Mammals................................................................................................................ 60 6. Responses in Marine Habitats..................................................................................................
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