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Home , Eliezer Yudkowsky, Engines of Creation, Futures studies

ESSAY .83 The Consequences of Physical : Can Humans Cope with Radically Extended Lifespans?

Bruce J. Klein Immortality Institute USA

Bruce J. Klein considers himself to be a fairly aver- Yet, social resistance to change is persistent. There homosapien, yet he believes his DNA is suicidal. In will always be some degree of resistance because of our order to overcome this problem, Klein hopes to eventu- evolutionary heritage. Our ancestors were successful ally shed his biological body for a more robust posthu- reproducers not because they took great risks. They man form. were successful on the whole because they were risk Kharin: How well are infinite lifespans matched to averse. Thus, has selected for humans who finite environmental resources? Given popular resistance were somewhat resistant to change but not totally to the most basic forms of genetic modification, can closed to opportunity. Once the benefits are made obvi- rely on and to keep pace with expand- ous however, resistance turns quickly to support. ing lifespans? Remember the clamoring3 over "test tube babies"? In short, Yes. I think we can keep pace with popu- In the early 1970's, nearly all bioethicists warned against lation growth and we can steward environmental in vitro fertilization (IVF) and 80% of the American public resources successfully. Chiefly because we've already opposed test-tube babies. Today, over 100,000 babies been successful thus far. Looking forward, because of exist - 200,000 worldwide, from IVF. And now about greater fine tuning and skill at the manipulation of mat- 80% of Americans support IVF. ter, we will improve. Kharin: In the that finite resources and infinite Creativity and ingenuity are infinite in capacity. So lifespans conflict with one another, to what extent is there long as we have something to do and are alive, there likely to be a trade-off between increasing lifespans and will always be problems to solve and better ways to increasing birthrates? Can we rely on the European pat- solve them. As humans strive for a better life, this drive tern of falling birthrates and increasing lifespans being will propel technology and requisite efficiency gains fur- repeated elsewhere? ther into the . Well, this question implies there is some inherent Granted, this doesn't preclude the possibility of "finite resource" problem. I tend to disagree. As alluded some catastrophic or unforeseen external or internal to in the first response, as long as humans seek a better event happening. Life, of course, has been devastated life, creativity and innovation will necessitate and result on numerous occasions by asteroid impacts and we in more efficiency and greater degrees of fine-tuning. seem to have the dangerous urge to blow each other This will lead to even more innovation, creation and effi- up. Yet, the 'engine' of creation1, as Eric Drexler's writes, ciencies. Pretty much what we see now, just more of it. continues to hum along. And as Ray Kurzweil2 rightly Extrapolate this pattern of improvement towards points out, it's all happening at an accelerating rate. some possible conclusion, and one can make some Journal of Studies, May 2004, 8(4): 83 - 88 Journal of Futures Studies

pretty far out . One is that we'll even- growing entrepreneurial drive, goods are now tually have control over every atom in the uni- being produced more cheaply and productivity verse. Moravec, Tipler, Perry and others have gains are being realized as centralized govern- postulated these futures, but I'll just say here ments tend to sell their monopolies that I believe it is theoretically possible. I would and assets to the private sector. also like to note that I believe we'll experience a Economist Fredrick Hayek said it best in "Singularity"4 from this process. But that's anoth- "The Road To Serfdom"6: er topic. Only since industrial freedom opened Also, while answering this question I hap- the path to the free use of new knowl- pened upon the following quote from a U.S. edge, only since everything could be News article by Jerry Taylor,5 a resource special- tried - if somebody could be found to ist at the free-market Cato Institute: back it at his own risk -- has science While it is counterintuitive to many made the great strides which in the people, natural resources are not fixed last 150 years have changed the face and finite; they are created by of the world. The result of this growth mankind, not by Mother Nature. Since surpassed all expectations. Wherever resources are a function of human the barriers to the Gee exercise of knowledge, and our stock of knowl- human ingenuity were removed, man edge has increased over , it should became rapidly able to satisfy ever- come as no surprise that the stock of widening ranges of desire. physical resources has also been Kharin: How much of a problem is access expanding. to the that are the "gateway" to Taylor goes on to give examples from the immortality, given the likely expense? In particu- oil industry, but I believe his overall assessment lar, won't economic inequality always bar access is correct and applicable to all areas of human for certain sections of the population? And in achievement. areas like and Canada with state funded In answer to your question about birth health services what is the likelihood of them rates, first if all, humans may not always want to even being offered? have children, or at least at such a fast and furi- There will always be differing degrees of ous clip. If people knew they could live for hun- quality in service and accessibility to health care. dreds even thousands of years in good health, Providing advanced health care services is an the drive to have children would certainly expensive and we're starting to see decline. some strain on the as we grow older Importantly, the introduction of the birth and live longer. However, the goal should not control pill in the 1960s has given women a to achieve some sort of perfect parity, rather we choice and gives us a hint at what is to come. If should work for a competitive balance. We not specifically because of increased lifespan in should allow the system to work to improve the few centuries, but surely a contributing itself. We should allow for competition, not factor, women are choosing to have fewer chil- impose overbearing regulation. Granted, a cer- dren later in life. Also the children they have are tain amount of regulation is needed, but the for the most part surviving. This is a big advance balance is always safer on the side of less, espe- over the past when many children died before cially in the long run. their first birthday. Today, the need to have But more specifically to the question of many children to ensure that at least some will "gateway" technologies and immortality; look- survive is not as important as it used to be. ing to examples in the past as a guide can be Overall the trend looks promising, espe- helpful. While, automobiles were only for the cially in the lesser developed countries where rich at the turn of the century; today, most we see a rise in the standard of living because of Americans of legal driving age have a car. I 84 free market expansion. Chiefly powered by a believe health and longevity care to be no differ- The Consequences of Physical Immortality

ent. Having access to health and my point of view. There is justifiable concern, technologies will be a universal want, because however, for its effectiveness. For instance, of this, the cost on a per person basis will drop there is a point after death where cellular dam- with demand. Free market forces are powerful age is to overwhelming and cryonics is useless. and work, just as they have worked with other Some have speculated this point to be two technologies (i.e. cars, televisions, , hours, maybe more. I'm not sure. But, as a safe- you name it). ty net, nothing is better than cryonics at pre- Kharin: Finally, inequality and social insta- serving the information of the brain after death. bility have always been closely linked and some As Ralph Merkle7 says, "Would I rather be in the have predicted that technologies like genetic control group, or the experimental group?" modification may lead to social unrest. How Also, cryonics is important for bringing the much of a concern is this? debate of immortality to a larger audience. As suggested above, a free market econo- When the Ted Williams'8 story hit, I believe it my with few restrictions will allow human inno- was overall good for cryonics. It gives people a vation to help with the dispersal of wanted common starting point, a common person to goods. Social unrest in the past was largely due associate with an idea. It has also raised impor- to overburdening regulations by governments. tant questions as to why someone would want Large corporate monopolies are a worrisome to preserve their body after death in the first possibility as well. I would not count out a sce- place. nario where one biotech company could posses Kharin: Another issue is that even with nan- the elixir for immortality. But the chances are otechnology to repair tissue damage; suspen- slim for a couple of reasons. sions may remain, since the charge fields used to a) The problem of aging is a complex one. store decay as entropy sets in during The disease of aging it's a multifaceted cryonic preservation, so that any re-animation intercellular problem. No one genetic, would be of a being devoid of memory, and by hormone, or stem cell therapy could extension personality. How significant an issue possibly solve the problems of aging. do you think this really is? So, no one company would likely have enough resources and manpower to The most powerful argument for the suc- corner the market. cess of cryonics is that nearly all decay stops b) The current system of government is when molecules are suspended in liquid nitro- sensitive to monopoly power (i.e. gen. Microsoft) and would quickly conspire, If preserved as soon after death as possi- especially with public support, to break ble, the tissues & brain cell (the information) up any life extension monopolies. when held at temperatures of -196 degrees Kharin: Cryonics seems to be a key theme Centigrade, will last for thousands of years. If for the immortality institute. However, this is a we haven't found a solution by then, it's proba- controversial area. In particular, it is argued that bly safe to assume something very bad hap- not only are suspension procedures not meaning- pened and concerns for cryonics patient will ful currently and that current cryonics facilities parish as well. are therefore essentially identical to Sutton Hoo Kharin: and genetics both or the Pyramids: elaborate tombs constructed seem important themes for the Institute, but both with a false expectation of an afterlife. Is this a are very politically sensitive areas. Realistically, fair view, and if so do you feel such facilities surely political and legal changes will always be damage the work of the Immortality Institute? one step ahead of scientific changes? Will these Not at all. Cryonics is a cornerstone in the technologies survive regulation? How much of a foundation of the modern immortalists' move- problem is it that advances in fields like cloning ment. Cryonics is a legitimate, tangible manifes- may be left to countries like China? tation of the human desire for continuance. Notoriously, politicians and lawyers fall There is nothing wrong with cryonics from behind when it comes to advancing technology. 85 Journal of Futures Studies

Only after public outrage or perhaps sensational ral selection, a mind that aspired to episodes do we push to enact promotive or immortality, whether it traces its prohibitive legislation (i.e. Raelians & cloning). beginnings to a mortal human being There is relatively little legislation control- or is a completely artificial creation, ling the really important technologies. The must be prepared to adapt constantly internet, for example while profoundly impor- from the inside. tant, remains untaxed. More importantly, AI I agree with Moravec. Biological minds are research is mostly overlooked for now, but its at a huge disadvantage. We have a hard time impact will be enormous. There has been no with change and self-improvement. It takes 10 public outcry to ban a potential "Hal", for exam- to 26 years of expensive education for humans ple, except from the likes of Bill Joy9 and a few to become educated in order to of benefit to others. AI represents much more of a threat society. on the other hand, can learn and/or benefit to humans than cloning ever will. (download) new skill in seconds. Kharin: John Wyndham suggested that Will a biological mind be incapable of liv- short term lifespans lead to short-term perspec- ing forever? I don't know for sure, it doesn't tives - how would we expect our conception of seem impossible. Some people feeling more the world and ourselves to change with expand- comfortable keeping their biological bodies. ed lifespans? One consequence of immortality Yet, they'd likely need nanobots11 residing with- might well be stasis, that it is the waxing and in them to fix oxidation damage, cancer and a waning of the generations that brings change myriad of other problems associated with old and progress, for example. Wouldn't even age. There's also the risk associated with walk- Einstein or Shakespeare run out of ideas eventu- ing around in delicate biologic bodies as well. ally? Personally, I opt out of biological bodies for an I doubt Einstein would have ever run out existence in a more durable substrate. of good ideas. He was still working on a unified Kharin: To what extent would someone be theory in the last day so of his life in 1955? We the same person after living for hundreds of still haven't found a unified theory nearly 50 years? Do you envisage a limit to our capacity years later. Would we expect Einstein, and for self-reinvention? those like him, if still alive, to simply stop asking No, there's no limit as far as I can tell. questions? We're different by the second, by the day, by Interestingly, let's say we somehow suc- the year without detrimental effect. Some of us ceeded in solving all the problems of the uni- even get better with time. Others get worse. verse. Wouldn't this lack of problems be a prob- But who's to judge really? It's a choice that lem itself? should be left up to the individual. If they Fittingly, writes in his prel- decide that they've had enough life, that's fine. ude to his book "Mind Children"10: It's their choice. No organization should have A mind would require many modifica- the power to keep anyone alive against his or tions to operate effectively after being her will. However, organizations should have rescued from the limitations of a mor- the freedom to offer information and sugges- tal body. Natural human mentality is tions about how to live longer. tuned for a life span's progression Kharin: The entire idea of evolution is the from impressionable plasticity to self- continual adaptation of organisms to their envi- assured rigidity, and thus is unpromis- ronment. Doesn't immortality run the risk of leav- ing material for immortality. It would ing us progressively more poorly adapted to a have to be reprogrammed for continu- changing environment? al adaptability to be long viable. Evolution is painfully slow and brutal. On Whereas a transient mortal organism the other hand, we have information technolo- can leave the task of adaptation to the gy, biotechnology, and now nanotechnology 86 external process of mutation and natu- that offers an alternative. I believe - The Consequences of Physical Immortality

ism is the logical progression in our evolution- Acquired knowledge is gained by individuals ary road toward greater intelligence and under- and thus retained for more years in tangible standing of the world. form. Knowledge can be passed on to younger Think of it. We are humans creating tech- generations in books, while at the same time nology of the physical world around us to retained in primary sources (authors). improve our lives in that physical world. Is that Life is much better by most measures since inherently bad? Should we not try to improve we've started to live longer. As we keep mar- our lives? How far do we go in either direction? kets free and government corruption to a mini- Can we just stop where we are now and say mum, the system works and improves itself. fine this is enough? As Bill Mckibben12, author of Kharin: The question of immortality raises the book titled "Enough", would suggest: questions about predicting our future develop- It is clear that these revolutionary technolo- ment. For example, the development of AI to gies are being driven by people with assist with nanotechnology. Assuming that the AI immortality, or something very near it, on is self-adaptive and evolutionary (and has their minds. In genetic engineering circles, greater capability than humans), would not the much talk in the last year has centered on imposition of constraints as envisaged by the promise of longer lives. As Danny Hillis, Eliezer's Friendly AI theory be interpreted as a a computer scientist, says, "I'm as fond of means of subjugation, thereby creating precisely my body as anyone, but if I can be 200 with the grounds for breaking the constraint? What a body of silicon, I'll take it." One odd thing are the prospects for immortality as set against is that it is precisely this same class of the prospect of an AI Sapiens at odds with the thinkers - hyper-rationalist scientists, who Neanderthals? have long sneered at religion as the refuge The question of AI is an important one. of the weak - who can't face the fact of their Our success or failure in designing a self- own mortality. But clearly their own dis- improving program will likely decide the future comfort with mortality goes so deep that success or failure of all life on . I agree with they will risk not only the dangers that come Eliezer's Friendliness theory.13 We must get this with genetic engineering, but even the loss right the first time around. of meaning that will attend this post-human The question of subjugation and con- future. straint is wrapped up in the discussion of creat- Kharin: Would not a society run by four ing AI. There is much contention about what is hundred-year-olds become extremely conserva- moral and ethical. I maintain however, that AI's tive? For example, would Jefferson have been development is inevitable. And as such it is able to deal with gay rights? Would Lord imperative upon us that we find some way to Palmerston have been able to make decisions on create it and stay alive in the process. contraception? As for immortality and AI, I would specu- Thomas Jefferson was president for two late that a successfully created AI would keep in terms, mainly in gratitude to Washington's mind the wants of humans. I speculate that the example. All presidents, except for Franklin D. greatest of all human wants is the desire to stay Roosevelt, followed this example. The 22nd alive. amendment made this a law. A society run by stodgy, inept 400 year olds would reflect badly on the underlying sys- Correspondence tem not necessarily the individuals running the PMB 118 - 408 19th St. North. system. I expect that over time there will be Birmingham, AL 35203 safe mechanisms in place to replace bad leaders USA with good ones. Much like what we have today Phone 205-833-5613 with on-violent presidential elections. Fax: 270-423-2601 Longer life is an overall good for society. [email protected] 87 Journal of Futures Studies

Notes 1. K. Eric Drexler - Engines of Creation: The Coming of Nanotechnology, http://www. foresight.org/EOC/ 2. - The Law of Accelerating Returns, http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/ art0134.html?printable=1 3. Test Tube Babies - A Revolutionary Birth, http://news.mpr.org/features/199711/20_smi ths_fertility/part7/section1.shtml 4. Singularity - The Singularity Institute, http://www.singinst.org/ 5. Jerry Taylor - "Are we running out of resources?" U.S. News - http://www. usnews.com/usnews/tech/nextnews/archive/ next030717.htm 6. Fredrick Hayek - "The Road To Serfdom" http://jim.com/hayek.htm 7. - http://www.merkle.com/cryo/ 8. Ted Williams - Cryonics Controversy: http://www.cryonics.org/ted.html 9. Bill Joy - "Why the future dosen't need us" http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy .html 10. H. Moravec - 'Mind Children' 1988 page 5 11. Nanobots - , Preparing for nanotechnology: http://www.foresight.org/ 12. McKibben: http://resurgence.gn.apc.org/ issues/mckibben212.htm 13. Eliezer Yudkowsky - "Creating Friendly AI 1.0" http://www.singinst.org/CFAI/

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