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Heliopolis Housing & Development Heliopolis Housing & Development Egypt Equities | Real Estate | Initiation of Coverage Sunday, 24 July 2016 A conditional turnaround story in the making — Buy PT: EGP86.2 Initiate with Buy/High Risk High Risk ETR: +73% • Sizeable, prime-located land bank is the primary valuation driver in our view. HELI (EGP) vs. EGX30 Rebased • Old concerns (inefficient business model, slow land monetization) starting to abate … Stock Details Volume (RHS) HELI EGX30 Rebased Last price (EGP) 49.84 • … but key concerns remain: the government control and unclear strategy. mn 52-W High (EGP) 56.30 • Presales and revenues to grow by 7-year CAGRs of 65% and 26%, respectively. 60.00 0.90 52-W Low (EGP) 36.00 0.80 50.00 6M -ADVT (EGPmn) 5.57 0.70 • We estimate HELI’s NAV at EGP62.2/share, implying a P/NAV of 0.80x. 12.1 40.00 0.60 % Chg: M oM • We initiate coverage on HELI with Buy/High Risk and PT of EGP86.2/share (ETR: +73%), 0.50 % Chg: YoY -1.01 30.00 85% of which comes from “unlaunched” land. 0.40 % Chg: YTD -0.1 20.00 0.30 M ubasher Ticker HELI.EGX 0.20 Business model has long been inefficient mainly Initiate with Buy/High Risk; PT EGP86.2/share 10.00 Bloomberg Ticker HELI EY 0.10 due to slow land monetization: Heliopolis Housing (+73%): We set a price target (PT) for HELI at 0.00 - Capital Details & Development (HELI.EGX) has long had an EGP86.2/share (+73% upside), using a DCF-based No. of Shares (mn) 111.3 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 M kt Cap (EGPmn) 5,545.1 Jun-16 inefficient business model, thus missing significant sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation model with a Jan-16 Mar-16 Feb-16 Aug-15 Dec-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 May-16 opportunities to exploit the booming real estate WACC of 20.1%. Our base case scenario assumes M kt. Cap (USDmn) 624.3 sector in Egypt over the last few years. Today, we that HELI will develop or co-develop its remaining Free Float (%) 27.1% think HELI’s strategy is still inefficient given that: unlaunched land bank. To account for any possible EGP mn 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016e 2017e 2018e change in HELI’s strategy over the coming years, we • Land sale is the main source of revenues and its Pre-sales 480 474 426 547 1,090 1,950 maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, which examined worst and best case scenarios, resulting in Revenues 338 420 481 683 540 811 would negatively affect its cash cycle. This strategy a valuation range between EGP63.7/share and had forced the company to depend on short-term 111.8/share, respectively. We also estimated HELI’s Net Income 136 184 205 344 154 334 borrowing to finance the construction of its small NAV at EGP62.2/share, implying a P/NAV of 0.80x Revenues Growth (%) 36.3% 24.2% 14.5% 42.2% (21.1%) 50.4% development properties. based on the current stock price, and 1.42x based on Net Income Growth (%) 25.0% 35.7% 11.4% 68.1% (55.3%) 117.0% our PT. Thus, we initiate coverage on HELI with a • It would take HELI some 138 years to totally Gross Profit Margin (%) 59.9% 60.5% 62.7% 69.8% 70.0% 85.2% Buy/High Risk rating. We see room for further PT develop its 25.2mn sqm, assuming its historical rate Net Margin (%) 40.1% 43.8% 42.6% 50.4% 28.5% 41.2% upgrades if the company takes serious steps to of land monetization remains the same. complete its turnaround story by monetizing its land Net Debt (Cash) 174 202 225 136 367 121 … thus, some steps were taken, suggesting a bank at a faster rate. EPS (EGP) 1.22 1.65 1.84 3.09 1.38 3.00 turnaround story could be in the making: HELI BVPS (EGP) 3.46 4.11 4.59 6.44 6.27 8.59 started to shift its strategy towards a more efficient Major investment rationales: (1) Sizeable, free- PER (x) 16.4x 23.4x 30.4x 14.6x 36.0x 16.6x business model, which could shape its turnaround disputed land bank without mandatory development story over the coming years. This shift is evident in: schedule, (2) shifting to a more efficient business PBV (x) 5.8x 9.4x 12.2x 7.0x 7.9x 5.8x model (off-plan sale and co-development * Fiscal year ends in June • Agreeing with SODIC (OCDI.EGX) to co-develop 655 agreements), and (3) benefiting from strong demand Source: Company reports, MubasherTrade Research estimates feddans in New Heliopolis City. Also, attracting new for middle-income housing units. co-developers for its other land plots will positively affect HELI’s valuation. Key risks: (1) Slow land monetization with unclear strategy for most of the remaining raw unlaunched • Adopting an “off-plan sale” model and planning to Mahmoud Ibrahim land bank, (2) high exposure to change in land Senior Equity Analyst double its paid-in capital. prices, and (3) concentration risk. • Paying EGP135mn to execute part of the external Mubasher International infrastructure works in Helio Park. [email protected] Page 1 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at [email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document. Heliopolis Housing & Development| Egypt | Initiation of Coverage Sunday, 24 July 2016 Table of Contents Corporate Profile 3 • Corporate Structure 3 • Land bank 4 Financial Summary 5 Projects’ Details 6 • New Heliopolis City 6 • Helio Park 7 • Land scattered in Heliopolis 8 • Nozha El-Obour 8 • Investment properties 9 • Project locations 10 Valuation 11 • 655 feddans land plot (co-development with SODIC) 14 • New Heliopolis City (NHC) after excluding 655 feddans land plot 15 • Helio Park 17 • land plots and developments in Heliopolis district 19 • Nozha El-Obour 19 • Investment properties 20 • Net Asset Value (NAV) 21 • Investment rationale and key risks 23 Business Model 24 Appendix | Legal Disputes 26 Page 2 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at [email protected]. Please read the important disclosure and disclaimer at the end of this document. Heliopolis Housing & Development| Egypt | Initiation of Coverage Sunday, 24 July 2016 Corporate Profile Corporate structure Heliopolis Housing & Development (HELI.EGX), a 72.3% subsidiary of government-owned the National Company for Construction & Development, was established as a real estate developer in 1906. HELI’s operations include land Heliopolis reclamation and subdivision, residential real estate development and management, and real estate properties purchase, sale and rental. Currently, HELI, one of Cairo’s oldest developers, is shifting its business model from a pure land seller to a Housing & Development developer with progressive land monetization and clear strategy. HELI’s shares have been listed on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) since May 1995. At present, HELI has an authorized capital of EGP200mn and a paid-in capital of EGP111mn distributed over 111mn shares at a par value of EGP1/share. Development Properties Investment Properties We see HELI organized under two key segments: development properties and investment properties. I. Development Properties: HELI has 25.2mn sqm of well-located and dispute-free land bank, located in East Cairo. The company has four key projects: (1) New Heliopolis City, (2) Helio Park, (3) legacy land plots scattered in Heliopolis, most New Heliopolis City Merryland Park of which are located in the eastern side of Almaza Airport, and (4) Nozha El-Obour. (NHC) II. Investment Properties: HELI generates rental income from (1) Merryland Park, (2) Tivoli Heliopolis, and (3) other properties subject to the old rental law. 655 feddans Merryland (co-developed Casino Key milestones with SODIC) Date Event Remaining Showland Casino 1906 The establishment of HELI. land in NHC 1995 HELI obtained ownership of the New Heliopolis City land by virtue of Presidential Decree No. 193 for 1995. Child Park May-95 HELI was floated on EGX. Helio Park Oct-03 The government allocated 1,695 feddans of land plot to HELI to construct the Helio Park project. Aug-08 Magic Dreams stopped paying HELI due rent of the Merryland Casino. Feb-13 Magic Dreams stopped paying HELI due rent of the Child Park. Heliopolis Feb-14 HELI obtained a ministerial approval on Helio Park's first project plan. Tivoli Jun-14 HELI revealed its intention to double its paid-in capital. Oct-14 Halting raw land sales. Square 1258 Mar-15 HELI’s BOD approved to enter into co-development agreements. May-15 HELI signed a preliminary settlement to end the dispute with Magic Dreams (the old tenant of Merryland Casino). Other Properties Fourth (Old Rental Law) May-15 HELI launched an auction to co-develop 655-feddan land (via a revenue-sharing agreement). Neighborhood Jul-15 Court verdict to hand over the National Democratic Party’s (NDP) building to HELI. HELI secured approval of the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency to continue in the development works in Sep-15 Eastern side of Merryland Park. Almaza Airport Dec-15 SODIC was awarded HELI’s project for developing a 655-feddan land in New Heliopolis City. Jan-16 HELI co-founded a real estate marketing company with a 5% stake. Mar-16 HELI signed the contract to co-develop 655-feddan land with SODIC. Nozha El-Obour Jun-16 HELI evicts Magic Dreams from Merryland Casino. Source: Company reports Source: Company reports Page 3 For more information on MubasherTrade, please visit our website at www.MubasherTrade.com or contact us at [email protected].
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