Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu (Fiji) and Current Climatic Trends1
Melchior Mataki, Kanayathu C. Koshy, and Murari Lal 2
Abstract: In this paper we characterize the climate at Nadi and Suva in Fiji from 1961 to the present, providing a picture of ongoing climate trends. The focus is on surface observations of air temperature and rainfall, although some information on South Pacific Ocean climate is also discussed, given its relevance for Fiji. Our findings suggest that surface air temperatures have registered increasing trends at both Suva and Nadi (the two observatory sites in Fiji iden- tified as Weather Observing Stations under the global network of the World Meteorological Organization) during the period 1961–2003. There has been a steady increase in the number of days per year with warmer nighttime temper- atures in recent decades. The rise in annual mean surface air temperature over Suva was @1.2 C over the 43-yr period considered here (at a significantly in- creasing rate of 0.25 C per decade, which is 1.5 times higher than the trends in global average temperature increase during the past century). The rate of in- crease in annual mean surface air temperature at Nadi was 0.07 C per decade. No trend in annual mean rainfall has been observed, however, at either of the locations. Significant interannual variability in annual as well as summer rainfall observed at both sites (including extreme rainfall events during the 43-yr period) can largely be attributed to El Nin˜ o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and intraseasonal oscillations in the mean position of the South Pacific Convergence Zone.
Baseline climatological data charac- and precipitation) with earlier periods and terize climate during a recent period, serving hence detection of possible longer-term as a reference against which to compare both changes in climate. historical and likely future climate variations. By international meteorological convention, Climatological Normals the baseline climate is usually of 30 yr dura- tion. This is long enough to encompass In the last two scientific assessment reports characteristic interannual and interdecadal of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate variations in climate and to capture a range Change (IPCC) (IPCC 2001a,b), the period of short-term extreme climate events but still 1961–1990 was adopted as the climatological short enough to allow comparison (for the baseline, an official World Meteorological major climatic variables such as temperature Organization ‘‘normal’’ period. Convention- ally, these periods repeat at 30-yr intervals, 1 This study was undertaken as part of the activity the next being 1991–2020. Notwithstanding under the research project ‘‘Integrated Methods and this convention, with most climatological Models for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Adapta- data now available in digital form, it is a fairly tion to Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries’’ straightforward exercise to update 30-yr aver- funded by International START Secretariat, Washing- ages on a decadal basis, and some countries ton, D.C. Manuscript accepted 29 April 2005. 2 Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable have published climatological summaries for Development, The University of the South Pacific, P.O. the period 1971–2000. Box 1168, Laucala Bay Campus, Fiji Islands (fax: þ679- In selecting the baseline period, one issue 3232891; e-mail: [email protected]). to bear in mind is the closure of many manned weather stations worldwide during Pacific Science (2006), vol. 60, no. 1:49–68 the 1980s and 1990s and their partial replace- : 2006 by University of Hawai‘i Press ment with automatic weather stations. This All rights reserved has posed some problems for maintaining
49 50 PACIFIC SCIENCE . January 2006 high-quality, homogeneous records of cli- Zone, and rainfall distribution is largely con- mate in many regions. It has also reduced trolled by the large-scale cloud bands as- the total number of sites in the observational sociated with the convergence zone, the network, meaning that the station coverage migrating low pressure systems, the move- and density for the 1971–2000 data are often ment of the tropical upper tropospheric poorer than in the earlier (1961–1990) pe- troughs, and surface midlatitude systems riod. This paper therefore is confined to the such as cold fronts moving across from the baseline period of 1961–1990 as standard south. From November to April, the Fiji World Meteorological Organization clima- Islands are frequented by tropical cyclones tology in the analysis of ‘‘climatological nor- originating in the Pacific Ocean, which re- mals’’ of surface air temperature and rainfall sults in prolonged heavy rainfall and flooding at Nadi and Suva stations. of low-lying coastal areas. However, the weather in Fiji varies considerably between island regions. This is due to the dominant Geographic Location and Key Weather southeast trade winds, which helps clouds Characteristics form over the mountains on the southeastern Fiji consists of 18,376 km2 of land and in- side of the larger islands. cludes about 330 islands, of which about 100 Nadi is situated on the western side of Viti are inhabited. The largest island and popula- Levu (Fiji’s western division). The western tion center is Viti Levu, which has an area of division (Sigatoka to Rakiraki) is a relatively 10,388 km2 (Figure 1). Viti Levu is character- dry zone and is subject to large seasonal ized by high mountains, dry on the leeward and interannual climatic variation. The an- west side (Nadi) and wet on the windward nual rainfall in the dry zones averages around east side (Suva). Vanua Levu, located north- 200 cm. Typically, winter weather in the east of Viti Levu, is the second largest island Nadi region has clear or partly cloudy skies, and is slightly more than half the size of Viti much sunshine, a well-developed west to Levu. Taveuni lies to the east of Vanua Levu. northwesterly sea breeze by day (south- Equal in size to Taveuni is Kadavu, which lies easterlies are predominant at night and in all to the south of Viti Levu. Fiji’s remaining months except from August to March when islands are small and are divided into three wind is generally from the northwesterly main groups: Lomaiviti, Lau, and the Yasa- quarter), and relatively cool nights. In sum- was. mer, thunderstorm activity is common and Fiji lies in the South Pacific trade-wind responsible for brief spells of high-intensity belt of predominantly southeasterly winds. rainfall. Suva, the capital of Fiji, is situated The southeasterlies are relatively strong and on the wet eastern side of the island of Viti persistent in winter (between May and Octo- Levu (in Fiji’s central division where the an- ber). In summer (between November and nual rainfall ranges from 300 cm around the April) the winds are generally light and vari- coast to 600 cm on the higher mountains). able with a predominant sea breeze during The Fiji group of islands is surrounded by a the day. Winds from the northerly quarter huge body of water and is affected by global- are also quite common during this period and regional-scale climatic events such as El because the South Pacific Convergence Zone Nin˜ o and La Nin˜ a resulting from interannual lies just to the north of Fiji where the south- variations of the strength of the ‘‘Walker Cir- east trades and the divergent easterlies con- culation’’ over the equatorial Pacific Ocean verge. Fiji’s climate is tropical. Overall, and associated droughts and/or floods, tropi- temperatures in summer are slightly higher cal cyclones, and high waves. The islands than in the winter months as is the humidity have experienced extreme weather events re- and the resulting rainfall. The two seasons are cently. In 2003, tropical cyclone Ami devas- largely controlled by the north to south tated parts of Vanua Levu, Tavueni, and the movements of the South Pacific Convergence islands in the Lau Group. Heavy rain associ- Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu . Mataki et al. 51
Figure 1. The Fiji Islands showing location of Nadi and Suva sites on Viti Levu. ated with the cyclone brought widespread water and millions of dollars worth of dam- floods in Vanua Levu and other parts of the age. In 1998 western Viti Levu, northern Va- country. Floods of rare magnitude such as nua Levu, and islands in eastern Fiji suffered a one in the summer of 2000 occurred in west- severe drought that almost crippled the sugar ern Viti Levu leaving many homes under industry, stressing moisture-reliant and non- 52 PACIFIC SCIENCE . January 2006 heat-tolerant flora and fauna, resulting in loss in Namaka in Nadi (17.75 S, 177.45 E) and of biodiversity. The cost to the central gov- at Laucala Bay in Suva (18.09 S, 178.27 E) ernment for relief and recovery, such as food can be considered generally representative to and water, fertilizers, cane seeds, etc., was within 10 km of the two sites considered in hundreds of millions of dollars. this study. However, until now only fragmented The daily temperature and rainfall data studies on a few meteorological variables for the baseline period from 1961 to 1990 have been done on the climatological details were analyzed to obtain monthly and annual of Nadi and Suva, and no systematic study climatological means (also referred to as on the subject exists as a published document. ‘‘normals’’). Subsequently, a time series anal- A general account of the climate and weather ysis was carried out using the daily data for of Fiji was provided by Derrick (1951) identi- the period 1961 to 2003 to find monthly, sea- fying three classes of regional climate for the sonal, and annual anomalies and to investigate Fiji Islands. A similar treatment of the subject any significant changes in the trends and pe- was given by Twyford and Wright (1965) but riodicity in the surface air temperature and with lesser details. An updated and compre- rainfall of the two locations over the period hensive review of Fiji’s weather and climate on a seasonal, annual, and decadal basis. during the period from 1950 to 1975 was Further, the observed instances of and trends published by Prasad (1979). Some aspects of in extreme weather events such as number of the climate of the Nadi region for planning hot days, number of wet and dry spells, and purposes were also reported in Sharma recurrence periodicity of droughts and floods (1982) and Krishna (1989). Databases offering were examined as part of the climatology of mean baseline climatology and current trends the selected sites. in surface air temperature and rainfall at An attempt has also been made to interpret selected meteorological stations in Fiji are, and explain the observed trends, periodicity, however, crucial for assessing the impact of and extreme events on a seasonal, annual, any changes in climate and its variability on and decadal basis. For this purpose, we per- various sectors of the economy in the region. formed stringent statistical tests using analysis Keeping this in view, the findings on the of variance (ANOVA) (MINITAB and SPSS analysis carried out and reported here may software). Possible links between changes in provide a helpful reference. total precipitation and frequency of extremes were explored including the influences, if materials and methods any, due to El Nin˜ o and La Nin˜ a telecon- nections and the intraseasonal oscillations on The study reported here is based mainly on the position and strength of the South Pacific climatological observations made at Nadi Convergence Zone. To critically examine the (civil aviation compound, Korowai Road in relationship between El Nin˜ o–Southern Os- Namaka) and Suva (Laucala Bay) during the cillation (ENSO) events and the rainfall in period from 1961 to 2003. Although meteo- Nadi and Suva in this study, the years with rological data records exist from 1942 for cold and warm events during the 1961–2003 both stations at Fiji Meteorological Service, period were identified and seasonal mean sur- the data for the period 1942 to 1960 are con- face air temperatures and seasonal total rain- sidered not reliable because they have not fall amounts for those years were computed at undergone quality control checks and contain Nadi and Suva. A two-tailed significance test large gaps; hence in this study we did not use was performed on the differences between the that data. The Fiji Meteorological Service composite rainfalls for the samples represent- provided the daily data for maximum and ing the warm phases of El Nin˜ o versus that of minimum temperatures and rainfall for Suva the remaining (neutral plus La Nin˜ a) years and Nadi for the period from 1961 to 2003 and those representing the cold phases of La from its climate database. The meteorological Nin˜ a versus remaining (neutral plus El Nin˜ o) observations at the civil aviation compound years. Baseline Climatology of Viti Levu . Mataki et al. 53
results by about 1.6 C. This implies that the annual mean diurnal temperature range for Nadi (9.6 Climatological Surface Air Temperature and C) was larger than that for Suva (6.5 C) on Rainfall Normals an average. Moreover, the diurnal tempera- The mean monthly surface air temperatures ture range in July was about 1 C higher and their extremes as inferred from averaging than in January at Nadi, but the reverse is of daily data records collected for Nadi and true at Suva, suggesting a significant differ- Suva during the period from 1961 to 1990 ence in the microclimate of the two locations are depicted in Figure 2. The annual average examined in this study. surface temperature was 25.4 C at both Nadi Due to the influence of the surrounding and Suva, with January and February being ocean, changes in the surface air temperature the warmest months with average daily from day to day and from season to season at temperatures exceeding 27.0 C. The highest both these locations are, in general, relatively mean temperatures and their extremes at small. However, it is noteworthy that during Nadi (Table 1) occurred in January and the 1961–1990 period the lowest nighttime those at Suva occurred in February (Table surface air temperature at Nadi was recorded 2). The daily maximum temperatures peaked at 11.3 C on 7 August 1965, and the highest at higher than 32 C in February at both nighttime surface air temperature here was these locations. The nighttime temperatures recorded at 26.9 C on 3 February 1962 showed a high of 24 C or more in February (Table 1). At Suva, the lowest nighttime sur- at both Nadi and Suva. Both Nadi and Suva face air temperature was recorded at 13.3 C exhibited the lowest daily mean temperatures on 18 October 1965, and the highest night- in July. However, the mean nighttime tem- time surface air temperature was recorded at peratures for July in Suva (20.5 C) were 27.6 C on 24 March 1979 (Table 2). The higher than in Nadi (17.8 C) by about 2.5 highest daytime surface air temperature at C. The range of extremes in daily mean and Nadi was recorded at 36.7 C on 11 January maximum surface air temperatures was least 1987, and the lowest daytime surface air tem- in March and greatest in July at both loca- perature was recorded at 20.8 C on 2 August tions. The range of extremes in daily mini- 1965. At Suva, the highest daytime surface mum surface air temperature was also the air temperature was recorded at 34.5 Con least in March, but the range was greatest in 10 February 1987, and the lowest daytime July at Nadi with a secondary maximum in surface air temperature was recorded at 21.0 September; at Suva, the range of these ex- C on 18 June 1985. tremes was the least in March and greatest Rainfall in Fiji is highly variable and in May with a secondary maximum in Sep- mainly orographic (influenced by island to- tember. pography and the prevailing southeast trade Average annual mean daily surface air winds). The southeast trade winds are often temperatures were 25.4 C at both Suva and saturated with moisture, causing any high Nadi, and the range of extremes in the annual landmass lying in their path to receive large mean daily surface air temperature at these amounts of precipitation. The mountains of locations was also identical (high at 26.5 C Viti Levu create a wet climatic zone on their and low at 24.4 C). However, as is evident windward side and a dry climatic zone on from Tables 1 and 2, the average annual day- their leeward side. The climatological normal time maximum surface temperatures at Nadi for the period 1961–1990 shows that Suva (on the lee side of mountains) were @1.6 C (windward side) received an annual total rain- higher than at Suva (on the windward side). fall of 304 cm, but Nadi (leeward side) re- This anomaly was least during summer (0.3 ceived a total of only about 181 cm rainfall C in March) and more pronounced in winter annually on an average basis (Tables 1 and (2.2 C in July). It is interesting that the aver- 2). The fact that the total annual rainfall at age annual nighttime minimum surface tem- Nadi is only about 60% of that recorded at peratures at Nadi were lower than at Suva Suva highlights the dominating role of orog- 54 PACIFIC SCIENCE . January 2006
Figure 2. Climatological monthly normal (1961–1990, mean, high, and low) average surface air temperatures at (a) Nadi and (b) Suva. raphy in the spatial distribution of rainfall mal) in 1974 at Nadi. Similarly, the lowest over Viti Levu Island. The highest annual annual total rainfall for the period 1961– total rainfall for the period 1961–1990 was 1990 was recorded as about 181 cm (60% of recorded as 438 cm (144% of the normal) in the normal) in 1987 at Suva and about 86 cm 1975 at Suva and 298 cm (165% of the nor- (48% of the normal) in 1969 at Nadi. TABLE 1 Climatological Normals of Surface Temperature and Rainfall for Nadi (17.75 S, 177.45 E) Based on 1961–1990 Period
Parameters Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual