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Socio-Economic and Environmental Assessment Morice Land and Resource Management Plan A Component of British Columbia’s Land Use Strategy Socio‐Economic & Environmental Assessment Ministry of Agriculture and Lands Integrated Land Management Bureau June 2008 Reporting Date This Socio-Economic and Environmental Assessment (SEEA) report was prepared in February 2007 based on data extracted from a socio-economic assessment (SEA) report and environmental risk assessment (ERA) completed in 2004, and analyses and updates undertaken in August 2006. It was undertaken to support decision making on the Morice LRMP announced in July 2007. Acknowledgments The SEA part of the report and the integration of the SEA and ERA into the SEEA were prepared by Pierce Lefebvre Consulting for the Ministry of Agriculture and Lands and the Integrated Land Management Bureau (ILMB). The ERA was prepared by Allan Edie and Associates for the Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, and ILMB. Direction and editorial input on the SEEA was provided by Jim Johnston and Ian McLachlan of the Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, Crown Land Administration Division and Geoff Recknell of the Integrated Land Management Bureau. Valuable comments on SEEA drafts were provided by Steve Gordon, Norman Marcy and Sara Dickinson. In addition to the work by Pierce Lefebvre Consulting and Allan Edie and Associates this SEEA report draws heavily on two sources of data: firstly GIS data, maps and assistance supplied by William Elliot of GeoBorealis and Loretta Malkow of the ILMB-GEOBC Spatial Analytical Services Branch; and secondly timber supply analyses conducted by Andrew Fall of Gowlland Technologies. A number of sector representatives were interviewed and greatly assisted the assessment. In developing the socio-economic estimates prepared for this study, the consultants have made several forecasts and assumptions utilizing information gathered under the time and resource constraints imposed on this study. Socio-economic impact assessments are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, particularly as forecasts extend over periods of several decades. The forecasts and assumptions utilized herein are thought to be reasonable and suitable for the purposes of this analysis, but should not be relied upon for other purposes. The analysis was carried out in general accordance with the methods and requirements presented in the Ministry of Agriculture and Lands document titled Guidelines for Socio-Economic and Environmental Assessment (SEEA). Pierce Lefebvre Consulting 3705 West 18th Ave. Vancouver, BC V6S 1B3 Tel: (604) 224-0648 Fax: (604) 224-5722 [email protected] Pierce Lefebvre Consulting Socio-Economic and Environmental Assessment of the Morice Land and Resource Management Plan TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...............................................................................................................i 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 OVERVIEW OF MORICE PLAN AREA POPULATION AND ECONOMY ......................................... 2 1.3 KEY ELEMENTS OF THE MORICE LRMP............................................................................... 4 2 PRIMARY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR IMPLICATIONS............................................................... 8 2.1 FORESTRY ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 Forest Industry Overview .......................................................................................... 8 2.1.2 LRMP Resource Management Zones and Timber Harvesting Land Base.............. 10 2.1.3 LRMP Benefits to the Forest Sector........................................................................ 11 2.1.4 Potential Timber Supply Volume Impacts of the LRMP........................................... 12 2.1.5 Socio-Economic Impacts Associated with Reduced Timber Harvest Flows............ 14 2.1.6 Potential Timber Supply Volume Impacts of Water Management Area .................. 17 2.1.7 Potential Timber Harvesting Cost Impacts .............................................................. 17 2.2 MINERALS ........................................................................................................................ 19 2.3 AGRICULTURE .................................................................................................................. 24 2.3.1 LRMP Implications for Agriculture ........................................................................... 25 2.4 ENERGY........................................................................................................................... 26 2.4.1 Oil and Gas................................................................................................................ 26 2.4.2 Hydroelectric Power ................................................................................................ 27 2.5 TRAPPING ........................................................................................................................ 28 2.6 BOTANICAL FOREST PRODUCTS........................................................................................ 28 3 BACKCOUNTRY TOURISM IMPLICATIONS ...................................................................... 30 3.1 OVERVIEW OF BACKCOUNTRY TOURISM............................................................................ 30 3.2 BASE CASE MANAGEMENT REGIME................................................................................... 30 3.3 LRMP IMPLICATIONS FOR BACKCOUNTRY TOURISM .......................................................... 31 3.3.1 LRMP Implications for Guide-Outfitting ................................................................... 32 3.3.2 LRMP Implications for Guided Angling.................................................................... 34 3.3.3 LRMP Implications for Other Adventure Tourism.................................................... 36 3.3.4 LRMP Implications for Tourism Potential ................................................................ 37 4 RECREATION ACTIVITIES IMPLICATIONS........................................................................ 39 4.1 OVERVIEW OF RECREATION ACTIVITIES ............................................................................ 39 4.2 BASE CASE MANAGEMENT REGIME................................................................................... 41 4.3 LRMP IMPLICATIONS FOR THE RECREATION SECTOR ........................................................ 41 5 PLAN AREA COMMUNITIES/ SETTLEMENTS IMPLICATIONS ........................................ 44 5.1 OVERVIEW OF PLAN AREA COMMUNITIES/ SETTLEMENTS .................................................. 44 5.2 FORESTRY IMPLICATIONS OF THE LRMP FOR PLAN AREA COMMUNITIES/ SETTLEMENTS.... 45 Pierce Lefebvre Consulting 5.3 OTHER IMPLICATIONS OF THE LRMP FOR PLAN AREA COMMUNITIES/ SETTLEMENTS ......... 48 6 SPECIFIC FIRST NATIONS IMPLICATIONS ....................................................................... 51 6.1 OVERVIEW OF FIRST NATIONS COMMUNITIES .................................................................... 51 6.2 BASE CASE MANAGEMENT REGIME................................................................................... 52 6.3 LRMP IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRST NATIONS......................................................................... 53 6.3.1 Area Statistics for First Nations Cultural Values...................................................... 53 6.3.2 Implications of General Management Direction....................................................... 54 6.3.3 Implications of Protected Areas and Area Specific Management Zones................. 55 7 ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES IMPLICATIONS ..................................................................... 57 7.1 ECOSYSTEM REPRESENTATION ........................................................................................ 58 7.2 RISK TO ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES .................................................................................... 59 8 INTEGRATION OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS.......... 65 9 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................... 75 9.1 NET ECONOMIC VALUE IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................... 75 9.2 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IMPLICATIONS.......................................................................... 75 9.3 SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS....................................................................................................... 76 9.4 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS ........................................................................................ 76 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Distribution of THLB Across Morice LRMP Management Zones............................. 10 Table 2 Socio-Economic Impacts Associated with a Decline in Morice TSA Harvest Flows 16 Table 3 Existing and Past Metallic Mineral Activity in Morice LRMP Protected Areas......... 21 Table 4 Indicators of Metallic Mineral Potential in Morice LRMP Protected Areas .............. 22 Table 5 Metallic Mineral Indictors in Morice LRMP Water Management Area ..................... 23 Table 6 Morice LRMP Selected Area Statistics for Agriculture ............................................ 25 Table 7 Target Area of Land Available for Expansion of Agriculture
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