Essentials for the Post-Pandemic Bank Risk Operations Must Be Reconfigured to Reflect New Why Extreme Digitization Is a Must for Financial Services Realities
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Expert Insights Essentials for the post- pandemic bank Why extreme digitization is a must for financial services Experts on this topic Sarah Diamond Sarah is the Global Managing Director, Banking and Financial Markets, for IBM. She is responsible for IBM’s Global Managing Director, relationship with major financial services firms, helping IBM Banking and Financial Markets them transform their businesses to respond to the linkedin.com/in/sarah-diamond- changing regulatory, business, and technology 044a99 landscapes. Sarah helped launch the Watson Financial [email protected] Services group and is Vice Chair, Promontory Financial Group, an IBM Company. Anthony Lipp Anthony is the Global Head of Strategy for Banking and Financial Markets at IBM. In his current role, he supports Global Head of Strategy, the development and execution of IBM’s business strategy IBM Banking and Financial Markets for serving banking and financial markets clients worldwide. linkedin.com/in/lippanthony He has diverse industry and consulting experience serving [email protected] top management on major strategy, organizational, and enterprise transformation initiatives in the financial services. He is a member of the IBM Industry Academy. Likhit Wagle Likhit is the General Manager of the Global Banking Industry at IBM. He has led and advised financial services General Manager, clients globally on business transformation programs that IBM Global Banking Industry have realized major improvements in client net promoter linkedin.com/in/likhit-wagle- scores, revenue growth, and bottom-line profitability. He 8a3a2416 is a member of the IBM Industry Academy. [email protected] Randy Walker Randy is the Global Managing Director of the IBM Financial Services Sector and is responsible for the IBM Financial Global Managing Director, Services business, helping banking, financial markets, and IBM Financial Services Sector insurance clients innovate and transform their businesses linkedin.com/in/randy-walker to respond to swiftly changing industry needs. [email protected] Paolo Sironi Paolo is the Global Research Leader in Banking and Finance at the IBM Institute for Business Value. He is responsible for Global Research Leader, providing business expertise and strategic thinking to Banking and Finance, executives with financial institutions, startups, and IBM Institute for Business Value regulators. An author on quantitative finance, digital linkedin.com/in/thepsironi transformation, and economics theory, he is a member of [email protected] the IBM Industry Academy. @thepsironi The authors thank Pablo Suarez and Seun Onodipe for their contributions in developing this report. Key takeaways The different normal: Forging Financial institutions need to master the future of financial services extreme digitization to succeed in the The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed thousands of lives, post-pandemic environment. stricken many more ill, and devastated entire economies. In response, many financial institutions have safeguarded The social and economic consequences of employees, enabled alternative working models, focused COVID-19 will make the post-crisis normal on business continuity and resilience, and learned new an enduring reality. These ramifications ways of serving customers. are accelerating the arrival of an uncertain Yet, the post-pandemic economic environment is future, inviting banks to lead “through the unexplored terrain. Case in point: depending on the scale of dark” by transforming business models and government assistance, credit defaults could be higher than during the 2008 global financial crisis. Lower interest strengthening operations through secured rates could prevail, potentially accelerating compressed cloud access, advanced automation, and the net interest margins and impacting a key revenue stream simplification of processes and products. for banks. The new normal for financial services could compel banks The different normal touches every to embrace continual reinvention of their business models corner—virtual and otherwise—of financial and solutions. How should banks manage costs, transform operations, and use technologies such as AI and cloud to institutions. impact innovation and the digital delivery of products and Organizations need to adopt both a holistic services? All are in play. It could be a matter of survival. perspective and a granular approach. They need to transform operations end-to-end A sobering assessment of future to achieve structural cost savings, succeed uncertainty: The recession and its with extreme digitization on the cloud, and ramifications achieve operational resiliency. The Great Lockdown put the profitability of most firms The “data-driven bank” will be based under unprecedented stress. It has triggered a global on the “data-enabled client.” economic downturn that endangers the very sustainability of entire industries, such as travel and hospitality. Innovative financial institutions will redesign customer proximity not only by using data Facing elevated uncertainty, firms may be cautious. Reduced consumption and weaker business investment to personalize their offers, but by infusing could drive the biggest immediate impact. Lower inventory interactions with artificial intelligence accumulations could arise from supply shock and (AI). This model generates new value, diminished demand. A dysfunctional global supply chain could weaken the economic outlook of developing markets understanding how digital relationships can and increase the risk of countries defaulting on their debts. truly create closeness and positive impact even during crises such as a pandemic lockdown. 1 The shape of the post-pandemic recovery will not be identical across industries and regional economies. The shape of the post-pandemic recovery will not be option of stretching lending capabilities and accelerating identical across industries and regional economies. And it their active roles in the recovery. Banks are instrumental could take a variety of forms, all influenced by the potential to the effective transmission of monetary policies and for future periodic lockdowns and growing political stimulus packages, helping businesses to progress toward uncertainties. For example, overall early expectations were recovery and restore consumer confidence. of a “V-shaped” recovery—with a shock to the economy and a displacement of output, but growth eventually rebounds, The initial perception has been that financial services and annual growth rates absorb that shock. could, on average, withstand the global shock better than in the 2008 global financial crisis, having already done However, where the shock persists, recovery predictions substantial homework in that aftermath. In particular, the have shifted to a “U-shaped” recession. While the initial European banking system engaged in sustained de-risking growth path resumes, some output loss is permanent. An and restructuring of credit portfolios from 2014 post-crisis “L-shaped” recession, where the crisis does significant peaks of nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios to end-of-2019 structural damage to supply or demand, could be imminent. levels. According to the European Banking Authority, Irish Certain regions or industries may even face a “W-shaped” banks reduced their credit portfolios from 21.6 percent to recovery, with multiple sharp declines and rises. 4.6 percent. Italy moved from 17.0 percent to 7.9 percent. On average, the euro zone halved aggregate NPL ratios Clearly, governments and central banks made headlines from 6.5 percent to 3.0 percent (see Figure 1).1 in their attempts to stabilize economic and social systems with unprecedented stimulus packages, granting banks the Figure 1 NPL ratios by country in June 2015 and June 2019 (%) indicate sustained de-risking2 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Greece Cyprus Portugal Italy Ireland Spain France Austria The Germany United European Netherlands kingdom Union NPL ratio June 2015 NPL ratio June 2019 Source: European Banking Authority 2 But is this the calm before the storm? The plummeting of interest rates In June 2019, Andrea Enria, Chair of the European Central Interest rate margins for US and UK banks are getting Bank’s Supervisory Board, had already warned, “We have squeezed, after the price for risk, by the re-emergence of to solve the issue of NPLs while the economy is still zero-to-negative interest rates and the flattening of yield resilient. If banks have to sail into the next storm with too curves, as has already happened in Europe and Japan many NPLs on their balance sheets, they will be less able to through the 2008 global financial crisis. weather it and come out safely on the other side.”3 The Federal Reserve System (“the Fed”) reduced interest What lies ahead is not reassuring. Financial services need rates by a total of 150 basis points (bps) in two emergency to plan for the worst. The current deterioration of economic meetings in March 2020, taking the federal funds rate to conditions could well transform a sudden recession into an 0-to-0.25 percent, along with USD 700 billion in asset 5 economic depression.4 purchases. These and other measures were meant to stimulate the US economy. The last time the Fed reduced rates this aggressively was in 2008, and the rates were suppressed until 2015 (see Figure 2).6 The implication: we could linger in a low-interest-rate environment for some time. Figure 2 To promote US economic growth, the Effective Federal Fund Rates were suppressed from 2008 through 20157 Basis points 600 500 400