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The Centenary of Latvia's Foreign Affairs

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The Centenary of Latvia's Foreign Affairs THE CENTENARY OF LATVIA’S FOREIGN AFFAIRS SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE THE CENTENARY OF LATVIA’S FOREIGN AFFAIRS SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE THE CENTENARY OF LATVIA’S FOREIGN AFFAIRS SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE The Centenary of Latvia’s Foreign Affairs: Scenarios for the Future” continues the series of publications on ideas, activities and personalities in Latvia’s foreign policy. This book provides an assessment of the future international environment and future trends in Latvia’s foreign policy in 10 years and in 30 years. The authors anticipate and examine the possible difficulties and advantages the Latvian state will face in the spheres of diplomacy, the economy, energy, security, the image of the state, and migration, as well as the choices it will have to make within the context of the globalization process, geopolitical challenges and communities of like- minded nations. Authors: Māris Andžāns, Daunis Auers, Mārtiņš Āboliņš, Reinis Āboltiņš, Edijs Bošs, Kārlis Bukovskis, Mārtiņš Daugulis, Ivars Ījabs, Didzis Kļaviņš, Agnese Lāce, Nils Muižnieks, Andris Sprūds, Valters Ščerbinskis Scientific editors: Kārlis Bukovskis, Andris Sprūds, Valters Ščerbinskis, Scientific reviewers: Daina Bleiere, Inna Šteinbuka This publication and public debates have been supported by the Saeima of the Republic of Latvia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Latvia. The authors are solely responsible for the content of individual articles. The opinions expressed by the authors should not be construed as representing those of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, project supporters or partners, other government institutions or entities. Cover design: Kristīne Plūksna-Zvagule Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns Translations into English for selected articles: Language learning and translation centre “Bābele” English language editing for selected articles: Talis Saule Archdeacon ISBN 978-9934-567-31-5 © Authors, 2018 UDK 327(474.3) © Translations: Bābele, 2018 Ce565 © Cover design: Kristīne Plūksna-Zvagule, 2018 © Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns, 2018 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 2018 Contents VALTERS ŠČERBINSKIS, ANDRIS SPRŪDS, KĀRLIS BUKOVSKIS An Introduction to the Future? ..........................................7 IVARS ĪJABS Latvia and Globalization ...............................................11 KĀRLIS BUKOVSKIS Latvia in Like-Minded Communities: The European Union and the Euroatlantic Partnership ...................26 EDIJS BOŠS Latvia and the Regional Great Powers: Towards 2050 ....................43 MĀRIS ANDŽĀNS The Security of Latvia in a Predictably Unpredictable International Environment .............................................60 DIDZIS KĻAVIŅŠ The Transformation of Diplomatic Practice ..............................74 DAUNIS AUERS Who Are We? Latvia’s International Image Today and Tomorrow ........96 AGNESE LĀCE Migration Trends and Latvia’s Foreign Policy: Can We and Do We Want to Learn from the Experience of Other Countries? .........114 MĀRTIŅŠ ĀBOLIŅŠ The Future of the World Trade System and Latvia’s Prospects ...........134 MĀRTIŅŠ DAUGULIS Foreign Policy of a Smart State: Technological Opportunities and Challenges in Latvia of Tomorrow . 155 REINIS ĀBOLTIŅŠ The Energy Sector in Latvia: The Kind We Are Not Yet Familiar With . .175 NILS MUIŽNIEKS Latvia Facing an Uncertain Future .....................................195 About the Authors ....................................................203 An Introduction to the Future? VALTERS ŠČERBINSKIS, ANDRIS SPRŪDS, KĀRLIS BUKOVSKIS The centenary of the Latvian state has fostered Latvian connection with their independence and given Latvia valuable experience with international relations. The Latvian foreign service has played an important role as a promoter of independence and statesmanship during this intricate period. The foreign policy process, the changing circumstances and factors, as well as national, regional, and global influence on an emerging new state, are all intertwined with the personalities and viewpoints of Latvian foreign policy makers. While preparing the Latvian Institute of International Affairs’ first two books on the centenary, we have tried to point out some new aspects in the foreign policy process and provide innovative analyses of the events by looking at past and present successes and failures, as well as flaws. We have not only tried to find out how it happened, but are also focused on trying to understand the reasons why. On the one hand, this third book on the centenary of Latvian foreign policy produced by the Latvian Institute of International Affairs is a logical continuation of two former books, ideas, and personalities, as well as work and personalities. On the other hand, this book could just as well serve as an addition to any attempt in telling the current and future stories of Latvia. It is always a challenge for scholars to talk about the future cautiously and using academic terminology. However, the reader will be able to compare the given prognoses with reality at the moment and in the years to come. More importantly, the reader will be able to receive a competent view of unfolding events as compiled by experts, or in several cases from the perspective of different potential scenarios. What is our country going to look like in both 10 and 30 years? Which tendencies make us think about certain courses of events, or possible difficulties and advantages? Finally, what is going to happen to Latvia in 30 years? The authors of 11 chapters in this book provide their points of view. The authors of the book were attempting to give innovative analyses and provide a view as to how the international environment could look in both 7 2028 and 2048. Each and every author, based on their expertise and point of view, provides scenarios about a probable world into which Latvia is going to have to implement its foreign policy during the next decade, and well into the middle of the 21st century. This task required both ingenuity and an ability to foresee the development of upcoming events, and was carried out with the help of different disciplines and theories. Being aware of the difficulty of the task at hand, the authors were encouraged to stimulate readers philosophically and cast aside cautiousness so that the book would promote discussions, as well as warn decision makers and the Latvian society about possible negative scenarios. In his publication, Ivars Ījabs gives a conceptual overview of Latvia’s relationship with both globalization itself and potential further developments that result from it. The effect of globalization is obvious both individually and from the perspective of the state. The author states that “The fact that the effect is going to be substantial should not even be argued about”. I. Ījabs focuses on economic, cultural (especially on matters concerning identity), and democratic factors. How are these notions transformed in terms of globalization, and what is their effect on foreign policy decisions in the world and in Latvia? Kārlis Bukovskis is focusing on Latvia’s future within like-minded communities, i.e. the European Union and the Euroatlantic partnership. The author proposes three scenarios: where like-minded communities are weakened and falling apart, where they continue to exist in a complex multi- speed condition, and where they continue an active and homogeneous integration. K. Bukovskis examines how Latvia can ensure its statehood and development as a result of intergovernmental and supranational interaction, which has always dominated not only processes of European integration, but also Euroatlantic relations. Edijs Bošs examines the policy of Latvia and other regional superpowers by looking at the policy of Russia, the United States, China, Germany, and the rest of the European Union. He takes into consideration foreign policy and economic tendency developments and provides a future vision for Latvia. The presence of all world superpowers in terms of globalization, even in the Baltics, has become an important factor. Based on an analysis of current circumstances, E. Bošs provides both positive and negative foreign policy development scenarios. The title of Māris Andžāns chapter,The Security of Latvia in a Predictably Unpredictable International Environment, steers the reader into a multiple dimension interaction in which the future is difficult to predict. The author 8 bravely provides his vision for the future, taking into consideration the rapid development of technology. The publication also provides two alternative future scenarios – an optimistic one and a less optimistic one. The author states the various factors that must exist for these scenarios to come true. The chapter by Didzis Kļaviņš deals with changes in practical diplomacy, as well as its transformation in current circumstances and the foreseeable future. The author evaluates how digital technologies are affecting diplomatic forms of communication. He gives his point of view about the change in the modus operandi of diplomatic representations, the importance of trade development, as well as new technologies, e.g. the influence of artificial intelligence on ensuring diplomatic processes. Daunis Auers writes about Latvia’s international image today and in the future. The author analyzes the correlation between trade and state brand, looking at the influence of governments, values, history, tourism, innovation, and immigration on Latvia’s image. D. Auers’ publication adds to the future view on foreign policy by providing insight
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