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Foreign Policy Research Institute E-Notes A Catalyst for Ideas Distributed via Email and Posted at www.fpri.org January 2011 MEXICO’S 2011 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON POLICY By George Grayson George W. Grayson is the Class of 1938 Professor at the College of William & Mary, an associate scholar at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a senior associate at Center for Strategic & International Studies, and a board member of the Center for Immigration Studies. He has made more than 200 research trips to Mexico, and his recent publications include La Familia Drug Cartel: Implications for U.S.-Mexican Security (Strategic Studies Institute, the U.S. Army War College, 2010) and Mexico: Narco Violence and a Failed State? (Transaction, 2009). • Mexico’s six gubernatorial elections this year will set the stage for the 2012 presidential contest and determine whether the once-dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) can continue its come-back. • Of greatest importance is the July 3 face-off in Mexico State where Governor Enrique Peña Nieto is determined to name his successor—not only to project his policies into the future, but to gain even more momentum in his race for Los Pinos presidential residence. • The center-right National Action Party (PAN), which successfully collaborated with the Left to win three governorships in 2010, is seeking to forge a coalition that can defeat Peña Nieto’s dauphin; although the president of the leftist-nationalist Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) favors such an accord, self-proclaimed “Legitimate President” Andrés Manuel López Obrador and other key figures are dedicated to thwarting a coalition. • Surging narco-violence poses a threat to candidates across-the-board, even as Peña Nieto has begun to hint at his approach to fighting organized crime should he capture the presidency. • During his last months in power, President Felipe Calderón has focused on configuring a “Security NAFTA” to closely integrate U.S.-Mexican initiatives against organized crime so that a future chief executive cannot dismantle the bilateral framework established during his six-year term. INTRODUCTION The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which lost the presidency in 2000 after dominating the top spot for 71 years, exuded optimism that bordered on hubris at the beginning of last year. After all, the self-proclaimed “revolutionary party” had increased its seats in the 500-member Chamber of Deputies from 106 members in 2006 to 237 members in the mid-2009 elections; had raised its number of governors to 19 of 32 state executives with victories in Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Yucatán, which President Felipe Calderon’s National Action Party (PAN) considered its bailiwicks; and had forged an agreement among the top aspirants for Los Pinos presidential residence: the extremely popular Mexico State Governor Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN), 44, über-Senator Manlio Fabio Beltrones, 58, and party chief Beatriz Paredes Rangel, 55, agreed to forgo low blows or zancadillas as they pursued their goal. Paredes went so far as to predict that her party would sweep the boards, capturing the dozen governorships in play. “Since 2007 we are the number-one national political force, and in 2010 we will make straight ‘A’s, because we will win 12 statehouses,” she emphasized. 1 1 . Quoted in “Paredes: en 2010 ganaremos todo,” NoticiasDurango.com , May 30, 2010. When the dust settled at the end of the year, the PRI had won nine of these positions. However, pragmatic leaders of the PAN (César Nava Vázquez) and the leftist-national Democratic Revolutionary Party or PRD (Jesús Ortega Martínez) had cooperated to forge several PAN-Left amalgams with President Calderón’s blessing. These disparate coalitions achieved success in the PRI’s erstwhile strongholds of Oaxaca, Puebla, and Sinaloa; in addition, alliance standard-bearers made robust showings in Hidalgo and Veracruz. Such defeats and near-losses sounded a wake-up call at the revolutionary party’s headquarters where Peña Nieto, eager to project the image of a “New PRI,” will install outgoing Coahuila Governor Humberto Moreira Valdés as party president in March, even as Paredes contemplated a bid for mayor of Mexico City, a post she lost to the Left’s Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon in 2006. The flamboyant Moreira, 44, has earned recognition because of his loyalty to the Mexico State governor, his support from fellow state executives, his superb ability to organize the PRI in home stand, and his links to the SNTE Teacher’s Union headed by the redoubtable Elba Esther “ La Profesora " Gordillo Morales. 2 To accentuate the passing of the torch to a new generation, the PRI selected as its secretary-general, Cristina Díaz Salazar, 52, the gregarious mayor of Guadalupe, Nuevo Leon, a municipality that suffers acute narco-violence. The specter of more PAN-Left ententes sparked the main headache for Peña Nieto and Moreira. Their greatest concern focused on Mexico State (Edomex), which embraces the nation’s largest pool of voters (15 million), boasts a world-class industrial base, abounds in gubernatorial wannabes, and represents a microcosm of the country—with large cities that border the Federal District (DF), posh suburban neighborhoods, a burgeoning middle class, and zones of severe poverty, including communities of Otomi, Nahua, Tlahuica, and other indigenous peoples. This essay will first explore briefly the state contests, paying particular attention to the Mexico State donnybrook. Secondly, it will discuss the impact of these contests on the presidential race, and finally it will examine the importance of upcoming elections for Mexico’s regime and its fight against organized crime. I. State Elections Guerrero (January 30): Contenders • Manual Añove Baños, 53, outgoing mayor of Acapulco, who is a strong ally of Manlio Fabio Beltrones and enjoys the backing of “The Better Times for Guerrero” alliance composed of the PRI; the Green Ecological Party (PVEM), a virtual family business run by the González clan; 3 and the National Alliance Party (PANAL), founded in 2005 by one of the most powerful union leaders in the Americas, Gordillo Morales. • Ángel Aguirre Rivero, former PRI interim governor (1996-98), who is supported by “Guerrero Nos Une” (“Guerrero Unites Us”) coalition comprised of the PRD; the leftist Workers Party (PT) and the Convergencia Party (PC), both of which have joined forces with the messianic Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), a populist who still claims that fraud produced his thin “loss” to Calderón and continues to barnstorm the country as its “legitimate president.” • Marcos Efrén Parra Gómez, mid-50s, former PAN mayor of Taxco (1996-99), state coordinator for Calderón’s campaign, and an official with the Mexican Social Security Institute. Analysis : This race pits two PRI dinosaurs against each other. Aguirre Rivero, whom Peña Nieto initially endorsed, dropped out of his party’s race at the eleventh hour when it became evident that he could not win its nomination. He resurfaced as the PRD-PT-PC contender. Both men have blemished political records: the former replaced as governor his ally Rubén Figueroa Alcocer, 4 who was forced to resign in mid-1995 in the wake of the Aguas Blancas massacre in which 17 protesting peasants 2 . Senator Beltrones, one of the nation’s most savvy politicians and a rival of Peña Nieto’s for the presidency, could have won the PRI leadership post had he declared his candidacy in mid-2010; however, he was blindsided by Peña Nieto’s ability to mobilize support for Moreira, especially among recently elected governors. 3 . Jorge González Torres, a former PRI activist, founded the party in 1991; his son, Sen. Jorge Emilio González Martínez, known as the “El Niño Verde” (“The Green Child”), now controls the non-ideological PVEM, which enters alliances to advance its economic and political interests. 4 . The notorious Figueroa has cast his lot with Añorve Baños. were killed and 21 injured. The latter, as mayor of Acapulco, has seen the so-called “Pearl of the Pacific” suffer acute pollution, ubiquitous street crime, and escalating narco-violence. On January 8, 2011 gunmen killed 25 people in Acapulco, decapitating 15 of the victims. A poll published on January 24 in El Universal newspaper found Aguirre Rivero (50 percent) leading his cousin, Añove Baños (43 percent), with Parra Gómez far behind (7 percent). In his race to succeed Calderón, Peña Nieto faces a win-win situation in Guerrero. Although Aguirre Rivero competed as an opposition candidate, he profited from EPN’s early endorsement and will throw his weight behind the Mexico State governor next year; 5 Añorve Baños, for whom EPN campaigned in the run-up to the January 30 contest, will back his party’s presidential nominee. 6 Meanwhile, the two camps are exchanging charges. Aguirre Rivero’s team claims that the PRI mayor of Chilpancingo, the state capital, was involved in thrashing his campaign workers and supplying public vehicles to Añorve Baños operators. For their part, Añorve Baños’ cadres accuse rivals of illegally distributing a plastic card or “ la cumpliadora ,” (roughly “the fulfillment”), which supposedly entitles recipients to social benefits. 7 They also accused the PRD of murdering the PRI’s representative in the small town of El Paraíso on January 24, according to CNN Mexico . Baja California Sur (February 6: Governor, 21 state legislators, and 5 mayors): Gubernatorial Contenders • Luis Armando Díaz, mid-40s, former secretary of government; backed by the extremely unpopular outgoing governor Narciso Agúndez Montaño, the PRD, and the PT. • Marcos Antonio Covarrubias Villaseñor, 43, federal deputy elected by the PRD who accepted the nomination of “The Alliance is With You” comprised of the PAN and the local, leftist Party of the Socialist Revolution (PRS). • Ricardo Barroso Agramont, 30, former PRI state president and grandson of former Governor Félix Agramont Cota, who is running under the banner of “United for Baja California Sur” comprised of the PRI and the PVEM; on January 12, Martín Inzunza Tamayo, nominee of the Convergencia Party threw his modest support to Barroso.