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Annual Report 2018 Annual Report 2018 NOTES Annual Report 2018 Annual Report 2018 NOTES The Annual Report for 2018 was examined and approved by the National Bank of Romania Board on 7 June 2019 and was submitted to the Parliament of Romania pursuant to Law No. 312/2004 on the Statute of the National Bank of Romania. Some of the data for the period covered are provisional and will be updated as appropriate in the subsequent publications of the National Bank of Romania. Totals may not add up and minor differences from the percentage changes in charts and tables may occur, due to rounding. The source of data used in charts and tables was indicated only when data were provided by other institutions. All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. National Bank of Romania, 25 Lipscani Street, postal code 030031, Bucharest Telephone: +4021/312 43 75; Fax: +4021/314 97 52 Website: http://www.bnr.ro ISSN 1453-3928 (print) ISSN 1584-0921 (online) ISSN 1584-0921 (e-Pub) Contents Overview 8 Chapter 1. Global environment and domestic macroeconomic developments 16 1. Global environment 17 2. Domestic macroeconomic developments 20 2.1. Economic activity 20 Box 1. Assessment of the impact of the EU structural and cohesion funds on economic growth 21 Box 2. The impact of foreign direct investment in the Romanian economy 27 2.2. Prices and costs 41 2.3. Fiscal developments 46 Chapter 2. The National Bank of Romania within the European System of Central Banks, EU-level bodies and fora 50 1. NBR participation in European structures 51 1.1. Participation in the ECB General Council meetings 52 1.2. NBR participation in the enlarged meetings of ESCB structures and substructures 52 1.3. NBR participation in the ESRB 52 1.4. NBR participation in technical cooperation activities 53 Box 3. Technical cooperation 53 1.5. NBR participation in structures of the EU Council and of the EC 55 1.6. NBR participation in the process of transposing, implementing and notifying EU legislation 55 1.7. Dissemination of the information acquired by the NBR representatives during their participation in European structures 56 1.8. NBR participation in the joint working platform with government authorities on European affairs 56 2. Developments in economic, financial and banking policies at European level 57 2.1. The European Semester 57 2.2. Developments in the establishment of a European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS) 58 Box 4. NBR involvement in the preparation and exercise of the rotating Presidency of the EU Council 59 3. EU medium-term financial assistance 62 Chapter 3. Monetary policy of the National Bank of Romania 64 1. Policy objective 65 2. Policy decisions 65 Box 5. The monetary policy stances of the major central banks and of those in the region in 2018 66 Box 6. Credit to the private sector and liquidity in the economy 76 3. Use of monetary policy instruments 83 4. Policy outlook 87 Box 7. Changes over time in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Evidence based on vector autoregressive models 89 Chapter 4. Financial stability 96 1. The NBR’s role in implementing macroprudential framework 97 2. Main assessments on financial stability 99 2.1. Indebtedness of non-financial corporations and households 100 Box 8. Calibration of the measure to set the maximum level of indebtedness 104 2.2. Banking sector 105 2.3. Non-bank financial sector 112 2.4. Financial markets 112 3. Instruments supportive of prudential supervision and financial stability 114 3.1. Central Credit Register 114 3.2. Payment Incidents Register 117 Chapter 5. Licensing and regulation of financial institutions 118 1. Licensing and notification of financial institutions 119 2. Regulatory framework for credit institutions 120 3. Legal framework for institutions within the regulatory scope of the National Bank of Romania 122 4. Regulatory guidelines in 2019 124 Chapter 6. Prudential supervision of financial institutions 128 1. Supervision of credit institutions 129 1.1. Size and structure of the banking sector 129 1.2. Performance of the banking sector 131 1.3. Assessment of banking risks 138 2. Supervision of guarantee schemes 142 3. Supervision of non-bank financial institutions, payment institutions and electronic money institutions 142 3.1. Non-bank financial institutions 143 3.2. Payment institutions 146 3.3. Electronic money institutions 147 4. Monitoring the application of international sanctions, prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing 147 Chapter 7. Strengthening the bank resolution function of the National Bank of Romania 152 1. Planning and preparing the resolution 153 1.1. Current activity of resolution planning 153 1.2. Reporting system for resolution planning 155 2. Resolution framework 156 2.1. Contributions to regulatory developments in the field of bank resolution at EU level 156 2.2. Contributions to negotiations concerning the legislative initiatives at EU level 156 2.3. Methodology to identify the critical functions provided by credit institutions 156 2.4. Developing the procedural framework/policies 157 3. Cooperation with national authorities, European institutions and other authorities 158 4. Resolution Fund 159 4.1. Setting the annual contributions of credit institutions to the Bank Resolution Fund 159 4.2. Bank Resolution Fund resources 160 5. Resolution guidelines in 2019 160 Chapter 8. Currency issue 162 1. Developments in currency outside banks 163 2. NBR’s cash payments and collections in its relation with credit institutions/the State Treasury 165 3. Currency processing and withdrawal from circulation of unfit currency 167 4. Numismatic issues 167 5. Detected leu counterfeits 168 Chapter 9. Payment and settlement systems 170 1. ReGIS 171 2. SaFIR 173 3. TARGET2-România 174 4. Authorisation and oversight of payment and settlement systems 177 Box 9. The management of cyber risks to payment systems 177 Chapter 10. Management of international reserves 180 1. Developments in Romania’s international reserves in 2018 181 2. Management of international reserves in a tense global economic and financial environment, marked by heightened uncertainty 182 2.1. External economic and financial developments 182 2.2. The manner to achieve strategic goals 184 Chapter 11. Romania’s balance of payments and international investment position 186 1. Current account and capital account 187 2. Financial account 189 3. Romania’s international investment position – main components 190 Chapter 12. International financial relations 194 1. International Monetary Fund 195 2. World Bank Group 196 3. Bank for International Settlements 197 4. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development 197 5. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 198 6. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 198 7. Participation of the National Bank of Romania in foreign institutions and organisations 198 Chapter 13. The convergence of the Romanian economy and the EU economic governance framework 200 1. Romania’s progress towards convergence 201 Box 10. The activity of the National Committee for Substantiation of the National Euro Changeover Plan 206 2. Developments in the European Union’s economic governance 208 Chapter 14. External communication of the National Bank of Romania 216 1. Public relations 217 2. Financial education 224 Chapter 15. Statistics and economic research 232 1. Statistical activity 233 2. Economic research 234 2.1. Macroeconomic modelling 234 2.2. Financial stability 237 2.3. Economic papers and analyses 239 2.4. Guidelines and objectives of the research activity in 2019 241 Chapter 16. Legal activity of the National Bank of Romania 244 Chapter 17. The institutional framework and the organisation of the National Bank of Romania 250 1. Decision-making bodies and corporate governance 251 Members of the National Bank of Romania Board 252 2. The relationship of the NBR with the Parliament of Romania and other state institutions 258 3. Organisational developments 263 3.1. Human resources management 263 3.2. Information technology 264 Organisation Chart of the National Bank of Romania as at 31 December 2018 268 Chapter 18. Financial statements of the National Bank of Romania as at 31 December 2018 270 1. Overview 271 2. Recognition of monetary policy operations 272 3. Recognition of foreign currency asset/liability management operations 273 4. Effects of changes in the exchange rates and in the market prices of international reserve assets 274 5. Conclusions 275 National Bank of Romania Financial Statements 31 December 2018 (audited by Ernst & Young Assurance Services) 277 Independent auditor’s Report 279 Balance sheet as at 31 December 2018 282 Income statement for the year ended 31 December 2018 284 Notes to the financial statements for the year ended at 31 December 2018 285 Statistical section 317 Abbreviations 326 Tables 327 Charts 328 Overview In 2018, in a context marked by a slight slowdown in global expansion and heightened uncertainty, Romania’s economy increased by 4.1 percent. The 2.9 percentage point slower growth rate than the post-crisis high seen in 2017 was not, however, accompanied by alleviating tensions surrounding macroeconomic equilibria. The advance in domestic absorption beyond the economy’s potential drove imports higher, given that consumer demand, even though its dynamics moderated, remained robust amid income policy measures and a larger structural labour shortage. With imports outpacing exports, the current account deficit widened up to 4.5 percent of GDP. The evolution raises concerns as most of the EU Member States reported either current account surpluses or low deficits and net flows of foreign direct investment, albeit relatively stable, held a lower share in external deficit financing in 2018. The general government deficit stood at the 3 percent-of-GDP ceiling set forth in the Stability and Growth Pact, with fiscal policy failing also in 2018 to pursue a countercyclical stance. Similarly to a year earlier, annual inflation rate stood at 3.3 percent, i.e.
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