Land Use Policy 88 (2019) 104185 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Land Use Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol Influential factors and classification of cultivated land fragmentation, and implications for future land consolidation: A case study of Jiangsu Province T in eastern China ⁎ Jing Liua,b, Xiaobin Jina,b,c, , Weiyi Xua,b, Rui Suna,b, Bo Hana,b, Xuhong Yanga,b,c, Zhengming Gua,b, Cuilan Xud, Xueyan Suid, Yinkang Zhoua,b,c a School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Avenue, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210023, China b Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection, Ministry of Land and Resources, 163 Xianlin Avenue, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210023, China c Natural Resources Research Center, 163 Xianlin Avenue, Qixia District, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China d Jiangsu Province Land Development and Consolidation Center, 58 Shuiximen Street, Jianye District, Nanjing, 210024, China ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Cultivated land fragmentation (CLF) is one of the main obstacles hindering the development of agricultural Cultivated land fragmentation modernization and mechanization. Systematically exploring the general distribution characteristics, influential Regional differentiation factors and classification of CLF are of great significance for improving regional agricultural production capacity, fl In uential factors promoting resource conservation and intensive use, and ensuring national food security, especially at the re- Classification gional scale. In this study, we established a new conceptual index system using multivariable linear regression, Land consolidation geographical detectors, and magic cube model for CLF assessment as well as an analysis of the spatial differ- Jiangsu Province entiation characteristics, driving mechanism and management zoning trade-off of CLF in Jiangsu Province in eastern China based on multi-source data characterizing geographic, land-use and socio-economic information. The results showed that the connotation of CLF has spatial-scale characteristics due to the differences in func- tions positioning of cultivated land resources in macro-social security and micro-livelihood maintenance. At the national/regional scale, CLF mainly covers the natural (resource), spatial and utilization attributes of cultivated land. Based on this, the CLFI in Jiangsu presents a spatial pattern that gradually increases from north to south, with significant spatial differences. Besides, the CLFI within built-up areas is significantly higher than that outside built-up areas, and its fractal dimensions both within and outside the urban planning built-up areas show the spatial pattern of "spatial distribution > resource endowment > convenience of utilization". Furthermore, average plot size, the proportion of industry and service industry, gross domestic product, slope, grain output, and plot distance from town are the dominant factors driving the spatial differentiation of CLF, with the in- fluence power (q) is 0.472, 0.204, 0.133, 0.129, 0.097 and 0.084, respectively. Location conditions and socio- economic activities have significant effects on the spatial differentiation of CLF within the built-up areas while highlighting the role of rural settlements outside urban built-up areas on CLF. Finally, we propose a two-level zoning system for diminishing the CLF and optimizing the utilization of cultivated land resources in Jiangsu based on influencing factors and fragmentation characteristics. The findings of this study will assist the gov- ernment in developing appropriate regional context and land consolidation policies and coping strategies to CLF and food insecurity issues, and achieve sustainable development goals. 1. Introduction (Looga et al., 2018), which also implies that maximization of the pro- vision of products and services for human's increasing food demands More than half of the world's population (54%) currently lives in requires more rational and effective utilization of the finite global land urban areas, and this proportion is expected to grow to 66% by 2050 area and natural resources. (Masini et al., 2018). The rising population expects 70% higher food Cultivated land fragmentation (CLF) is a common agrarian feature production (by the year 2050) and more sustainable land management of many transition economies as well as developing countries (Niroula ⁎ Corresponding authors at: School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Avenue, Qixia District, Nanjing, 210023, China. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (J. Liu), [email protected] (X. Jin). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104185 Received 14 April 2019; Received in revised form 11 August 2019; Accepted 27 August 2019 0264-8377/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. J. Liu, et al. Land Use Policy 88 (2019) 104185 and Thapa, 2007; Falco et al., 2010). CLF has become a critical factor in et al., 2019), farms and households (Looga et al., 2018; Ntihinyurwa ensuring food security and sustainability of land resources in East Asia et al., 2019). While these studies work together to recognize the char- (Qi and Dang, 2018), especially for China where per capita cultivated acteristics of cultivated land resources and greatly expanded the land is only 0.08 ha, far below the global average of 0.20 ha per capita breadth and depth of this topic, there is still a great room for im- (Du et al., 2018; Jin et al., 2017). As a prominent feature in traditional provement in the following aspects due to limitations in technical agricultural production in China, CLF not only enriches production methods and data acquisition: diversification, reduces agricultural production risks, and increases farmers' income, but also causes a number of negative influences in- (1) The connotation of CLF needs to be improved. The social security cluding reducing the efficiency of agricultural production, wasting the function of cultivated land resources on macro-scale and the live- workforce in rural areas and improving production costs (Falco et al., lihood maintenance function on a micro-scale determine that the 2010), and then becomes a critical damper to China's agricultural characteristics of CLF vary significantly in different spatial scales modernization and scale development (Sun and Liu, 2010). Studies (e.g., national, regional or local scales, household levels). Currently, have shown that China's CLF wastes about 3%–10% of the effective the connotation of CLF mainly focuses on land property rights of the agricultural land area (Zhang et al., 1997), increases labor costs per ton farm, household, or individual levels. However, little attention has of grain production by 115 yuan and reduces land productivity by been paid to understanding the effects of natural, spatial, and uti- 15.3% (Bai et al., 2014). Meanwhile, the annual output of tuber crops lization properties of cultivated land resources on fragmentation, and wheat decreased by 9.8% and 6.5% respectively for each additional especially in the context of the spatial scales. plot (Wan and Cheng, 2001). (2) Indicators for assessing CLF are limited. Although CLF is mostly To further alleviate the negative influences of CLF, the Chinese understood as a high number of farmed plots or as a high number of government has focused on CLF control and management in recent plot co-owners (Ciaian et al., 2018), it is a more complex phe- years. The No.1 Document of the Central Committee put forward the nomenon. It includes the size distribution and shape of land plots, macro-strategic plan of "accelerating the development of land circula- the spatial distribution, and number of parcels, the distances be- tion and actively developing moderate-scale management" in 2017, tween plots and their uses or locations (Sundqvist and Lisa, 2006; marking a new era of transformation and development of China's tra- Latruffe and Piet, 2014). Because the quantification of several di- ditional agricultural production into the scale, intensive and modern mensions of CLF simultaneously is challenging (Ciaian et al., 2018), agriculture. As important land management and remediation instru- most studies measure CLF only based on one aspect (e.g., landscape ment, land consolidation (LC) has been shown to effectively tackle the patterns, the number of plots or their average size) (Sichoongwe CLF problem and promote agricultural modernization in many coun- et al., 2014), thereby the expansibility of CLF assessment is rela- tries across the world (FAO, 2004; Hartvigsen, 2015). The dominant tively weak. discourse is that fragmented land ownership and land use tend to be (3) The spatial scale of CLF associated with practical guidance needs to ineffective and unwanted, and LC is then a solution to this quandary be further expanded. Currently, the research on CLF is mostly fo- (Ntihinyurwa et al., 2019). Despite the close correlation between CLF cused on micro-scale constrained by data acquisition from house- and LC, little attention has been paid to the differences in regional holds surveys. Even if there are some individual case studies fo- patterns and directions of LC affected by regional differences of CLF and cusing on CLF across regions or countries (Niroula and Thapa, its influential factors, which thereby leading to the spatial mismatch 2005; Hartvigsen, 2014), to the best of our knowledge a compara- between LC practices and characteristics of arable land resources to tive study guiding the optimal utilization of cultivated land re- some extent, especially at the regional