Revolutionizing Engineering Science Through Simulation
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Revolutionizing Engineering Science through Simulation May 2006 Report of the National Science Foundation Blue Ribbon Panel on Simulation-Based Engineering Science ii A Report of the National Science Foundation Blue Ribbon Panel on Simulation-Based Engineering Science Revolutionizing Engineering Science through Simulation May 2006 iii iv v vi THE NSF BLUE RIBBON PANEL ON SIMULATION-BASED ENGINEERING SCIENCE J. Tinsley Oden, Chair Associate Vice President for Research Director, Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences Cockrell Family Regents Chair in Engineering The University of Texas at Austin Ted Belytschko Walter P. Murphy Professor and McCormick Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering Northwestern University Jacob Fish The Rosalind and John J. Redfern, Jr.’33 Chaired Professor in Engineering Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Thomas J.R. Hughes Professor, Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics Computational and Applied Mathematics Chair III Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences The University of Texas at Austin Chris Johnson Director, Scientific Computing and Imaging Institute Co-Director, Center for Integrated Biomedical Computing Distinguished Professor, Computer Science Research Professor, Bioengineering Adjunct Professor, Physics University of Utah David Keyes Fu Foundation Professor of Applied Mathematics Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics Acting Director, Institute for Scientific Computing Research at LLNL Columbia University vii Alan Laub Director, Institute for Digital Research and Education Professor, Electrical Engineering / Mathematics University of California – Los Angeles Linda Petzold Chair, Department of Computer Science Professor, Department of Mechanical and Environmental Engineering Professor, Department of Computer Science Director, Computational Science and Engineering Program University of California, Santa Barbara David Srolovitz Department Chair, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Professor, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Professor, Princeton Institute for the Science and Technology of Materials Princeton University Sidney Yip Professor, Nuclear Engineering and Materials Science Engineering Computational and Systems Biology (CSBi) Massachusetts Institute of Technology Panel Administrative Coordinator: Jon Bass Deputy Director, Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences The University of Texas at Austin viii PREFACE This document is the final report of the findings and recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Panel on Simulation-Based Engineering Science. The report contains recommendations critical to the acceleration of advances in Simulation- Based Engineering Science (SBES), and it identifies several areas in which SBES can play a remarkable role in promoting developments vital to the health, security, and technological competitiveness of the nation. For over a decade, the nation's engineering and science communities have become increasingly aware that computer simulation is an indispensable tool for resolving a multitude of scientific and technological problems facing our country. To define the field of computer simulation more precisely and to assess its potential impact on important areas of engineering science, in April 2004 the NSF organized a workshop on SBES. Encouraged by the widespread interest in the results of the workshop, the Foundation appointed a Blue Ribbon Panel on Simulation-Based Engineering Science. The purpose of the Panel was to explore the challenges and potential benefits of SBES, as well as the barriers to its development. Furthermore, the Panel was tasked with making recommendations on how the discipline could be nurtured within academia, industry, national laboratories, and government agencies. A second workshop on SBES was held in September 2005, at which time the Panel received input on SBES from a broad constituency. Acknowledgements: The Panel has benefited from the advice and council of many individuals. The enthusiastic support of Drs. Richard Buckius and Ken Chong of NSF and Dr. John Brighton, formerly of NSF, is gratefully acknowledged. Valuable advice from the over 100 workshop attendees has also been factored into the findings and recommendations. In addition, a large group of experts outside the workshops have provided valuable commentary on the early drafts of this report. The Panel gratefully acknowledges the following individuals and institutions for providing the graphics that appear in this report: NASA’s Earth Observatory (Cover Image); Charles Taylor, Stanford University (Figure 1); Y. Zhang and C. Bajaj, University of Texas and the New York University School of Medicine, respectively (Figure 2); SCI, University of Utah (Figure 3); SCI, University of Utah, and J. Bell and V. Beckner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Figure 4); and the U.S. Department of Energy (Figure 5, a reproduction from the SCaLeS report). Particularly helpful in the preparation of this final report were the comments and advice of Drs. Chandrajit Bajaj, Larry Biegler, Mark ix Carpenter, Alok Chaturvedi, Weng Cho Chew, Frederica Darema, Omar Ghattas, George Hazelrigg, Craig Henriquez, Anthony Ingraffea, Kirk Jordan, Chandrika Kamath, Dimitri Kusnezov, Wing Kam Liu, Robert Moser, Habib Najm, Anthony Patera, Mark Rashid, Mark Shephard, Charles Taylor, Elizabeth Tornquist, Mary Wheeler, Daniel White, Jacob White, and David Young,. Although this report was prepared by a Panel of the National Science Foundation, all opinions, findings, and recommendations expressed here are those of the Panel and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. x CONTENTS PREFACE................................................................................................................ix CONTENTS ............................................................................................................xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................xiii 1.0 SBES: A National Priority for Tomorrow’s Engineering and Science .............1 2.0 THE PAYOFF: Driving Applications and Societal Benefits of SBES ................9 2.1 SBES in Medicine.............................................................................................9 2.2 SBES in Predictive Homeland Security ........................................................13 2.3 SBES in Energy and the Environment ..........................................................17 2.4 SBES in Materials ..........................................................................................18 2.5 SBES in Industrial and Defense Applications ...............................................22 3.0 CORE ISSUES: Challenges, Barriers, and Opportunities in SBES Research ..........................................................................................................29 3.1 The Tyranny of Scales: The Challenge of Multiscale Modeling and Simulation........................................................................................................29 3.2 Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification..............................33 3.3 Dynamic Simulation Systems, Sensors, Measurements, and Heterogeneous Simulations ...........................................................................37 3.4 New Vistas in Simulation Software...............................................................40 3.5 The Emergence of Big Data in Simulation and the Role of Visualization in SBES .....................................................................................44 3.6 Next-Generation Algorithms and Computational Performance...................49 4.0 THE CRISIS OF THE KNOWLEDGE EXPLOSION: SBES Education for Tomorrow’s Engineers and Scientists ............................................................53 5.0 CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................57 xi Appendix A: SBES Workshop Attendees..............................................................61 April 2004 Workshop ...........................................................................................61 September 2005 Workshop..............................................................p ....................62 BIBLIOGRAPHY.....................................................................................................63 xii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Simulation refers to the application of computational models to the study and prediction of physical events or the behavior of engineered systems. The development of computer simulation has drawn from a deep pool of scientific, mathematical, computational, and engineering knowledge and methodologies. With the depth of its intellectual development and its wide range of applications, computer simulation has emerged as a powerful tool, one that promises to revolutionize the way engineering and science are conducted in the twenty-first century. Computer simulation represents an extension of theoretical science in that it is based on mathematical models. Such models attempt to characterize the physical predictions or consequences of scientific theories. Simulation can be much more, however. For example, it can be used to explore new theories and to design new experiments to test these theories. Simulation also provides a powerful alternative to the techniques of experimental science and observation when phenomena are not observable or when measurements are impractical