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World Affairs Summer 2020 (April – June) Vol 24 No 2 1 2 World Affairs Summer 2020 (April – June) Vol 24 No 2 World Affairs International Advisory Board

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World Affairs Summer 2020 (April – June) Vol 24 No 2 1 2 World Affairs Summer 2020 (April – June) Vol 24 No 2 World Affairs International Advisory Board W ORLD AFFAIRS VOLUME TWENTY FOUR • NUMBER TWO SUMMER 2020 (APRIL-JUNE) The Journal of International Issues of International The Journal DECLINE, CRISIS AND RESET THE ONGOING TRANSITION SUDHANSHU TRIPATHI RAVI PRATAP SINGH SHAHZADA RAHIM ANDREY VOLODIN PAOLO RAIMONDI EVOLVING SOCIAL AND REGIONAL SYMPTOMS APRIL-JUNE 2020 VOL 24 NO 2 VOL APRIL-JUNE 2020 TAYE DEMISSIE BESHI AND RANVINDERJIT KAUR KANIKA SANSANWAL AND RAHUL KAMATH SANCHITA BHATTACHARYA SUYASH CHANDAK “The world is the great gymnasium where we come to make ourselves strong.” – Swami Vivekananda Quintessence Fragrances Limited, headquartered in UK with manufacturing in UK, India, Hong Kong & China. Creation centres in Newhaven and Mumbai, creating innovative sensory experiences. Specialists in fine fragrances, soaps, toiletries and air care. Clients in 25 countries. Quintessence Fragrances Ltd Unit 2A, Hawthorn Industrial Estate, Avis Way, Newhaven East Sussex BN9 0DJ, United Kingdom Tel.: +44 (0) 1273 519000, Mobile: +44 (0) 7711 007318 Website: www.quintessencefragrances.com Quintessence Fragrances Pvt. Ltd A-31, Phase 1, MEPZ-SEZ, Special Economic Zone, Tambaram, Chennai - 600045 Tel.: 091 44 22622325, Fax: +91 44 22622327 Quintessence Fragrances Ltd 1/17, Prabhadevi Industrial Estate, 402 Veer Savarkar Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400025 Tel: 91 22 66225959/24314806, Fax 91 22 24367031 URL: www.goldfieldfragrances.com, Email: [email protected] WORLD AFFAIRS The Journal of International Issues SUMMER (APRIL-JUNE) 2020 PUBLISHER CHANDA SINGH EDITOR CHANDA SINGH CONSULTING EDITOR KIRAN KHOSLA Editorial Advisory Board CONVENER Côme Carpentier de Gourdon, France Moonis Ahmar, Pakistan; Ravi Bhoothalingam, India; Erika Drucker, Switzerland; Vladimir Kulikov, Russia; Eijiro Noda, Japan; C V Ranganathan, India; Mohamed B Alolaimy, Egypt MANAGER CHANDRIKA VIJAYAN SUBSCRIPTIONS & SALES RAM DUTTA TYAGI PRODUCTION EXECUTIVE KRISHAN PAWAR DESIGN CONSULTANTS DAVE CHANG, VIVEK SAHNI PRINTERS PROCESS AND SPOT REGISTERED OFFICE KAPUR SOLAR FARM, BIJWASAN, NAJAFGARH ROAD, P O KAPAS HERA, NEW DELHI 110 097, INDIA PHONE: 91 11 4081 7494, 2462 8994 CORRESPONDENCE THE EDITOR ADDRESS WORLD AFFAIRS D - 322, DEFENCE COLONY, NEW DELHI - 110 024. INDIA PHONE : 91 11 4652 6956, 4081 7494, 2462 8994 EMAIL: [email protected], [email protected] WEBSITE: www.worldaffairsjournal.com, www.worldaffairsjournal.in World Affairs, The Journal of International Issues is published quarterly Copyright © World Affairs, The Journal of International Issues. For advertising details contact Phone 91 11 4652 6956, 4081 7494 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmit- ted by any means, electrical, mechanical or otherwise, without first seeking the written permission of the publishers or due acknowledgement. World Affairs is an open forum which encourages all points of view. However, views expressed in its pages are the contributors’ own and do not represent the opinions or policies of World Affairs. Manuscripts should be sent to: The Editor, World Affairs, D-322, Defence Colony, New Delhi 110 024, India. The editor will consider only original manuscripts received, and take no responsibility in accepting them. They will be returned only if accompanied by appropriate postage. Printed and published by Chanda Singh on behalf of Kapur Surya Foundation, Bijwasan, Najafgarh Road, P O Kapas Hera, New Delhi-110 097. Printed at Process and Spot, C-112/3, Naraina Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi 110 028 and published at Kapur Solar Farm, Bijwasan, Najafgarh Road, P O Kapas Hera, New Delhi-110 097. Editor: Chanda Singh. RNI NO 55516/92 ISSN 0971—8052 Price : ` 700/- Online ISSN : 0974-0937 WORLD AFFAIRS SUMMER 2020 (APRIL – JUNE) VOL 24 NO 2 1 2 WORLD AFFAIRS SUMMER 2020 (APRIL – JUNE) VOL 24 NO 2 WORLD AFFAIRS INTERNATIONAL ADVISORY BOARD ANINDITA N BALSLEV Philosopher, Author, Aarhus, Denmark VASANT K Bawa Author, Historian, Activist; Former Member of the Indian Administrative Service, Hyderabad, India JOHAN GALTUNG Director, Professor, Peace Studies, Transcend, France JAMSHYD N GODREJ Managing Director, Godrej & Boyce Mfg Co Ltd, Mumbai, India TIBERIO GRAZIANI President, International Institute for Global Analysis “Vision and Global Trends”, Rome, Italy JORGE HEINE Public Policy Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Non-resident Senior Fellow, Center for China and Globalization, Visiting Professor, University of Sichuan, China HAZEL HENDERSON Evolutionary Economist, Author, Editor, The United Nations: Policy and Financing Alternatives, USA EVGYENY KOZHOKIN Vice-Director for Research MGIMO, University of the RF MFA, Moscow, Russia TERRY MOLLNER Chairman, Trusteeship Institute, USA KAPILA VATSYAYAN Chairperson, India International Centre–Asia Project; Member, Executive Board UNESCO; Former Secretary, Department of Arts, Ministry of Human Resource Development, New Delhi, India VLADIMIR I YAKUNIN Co-Chairman, World Public Forum, Dialogue of Civilisations, Director of Political Sciences, Head of State Policy, Faculty of Political Sciences, Lomonosov University, Moscow, Russia ZHANG YUNLING Director of International Studies, Professor of International Eco- nomic, CASS, Beijing, China WORLD AFFAIRS SUMMER 2020 (APRIL – JUNE) VOL 24 NO 2 3 CONTENTS VOL. 24 NO. 2 SUMMER 2020 DECLINE, CRISIS AND RESET THE ONGOING TRANSITION THE RETURN OF HISTORY 10 WORLD POLITICS IN THE EARLY TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY Andrey Volodin focuses on global processes that took shape in the last quarter of the twentieth century. The logic of their continuation has decisively affected the megatrends of modern world politics. Today, the existential problem faced by the world is the search for a new global consensus, with a collective security system covering all of humanity at its core. BRICS AND THE THREAT OF A NEW GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS 38 Paolo Raimondi lays out a comprehensive panorama of the global economic situation as it was on the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic and points out major weaknesses and crises brewing in the public and private sectors of the world’s biggest economies. He calls for the creation of a new global monetary architecture. THE IMPERATIVES OF NATIONAL SECURITY VIS-À-VIS 56 GLOBALISATION Sudhanshu Tripathi examines the ongoing debate over the mounting challenges before national security against a backdrop of globalisation and liberalisation. He also analyses the potential threats to global peace and security that may affect different nations and cancel out the benefits of the ongoing globalisation process. 4 WORLD AFFAIRS SUMMER 2020 (APRIL – JUNE) VOL 24 NO 2 COMBATTING DIFFERENT FACETS OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM 68 A FORMIDABLE TASK IN A COMPLEX SCENARIO Ravi Pratap Singh analyses the different types of terrorism and its international ramifications, the genesis of Islamic terror and the equally dangerous trends of leftist right wing terrorism as well as the limitations of democracy when confronted by terrorism. He makes a case for a multipronged inclusive strategy as well as strengthening of the intelligence and security apparatus as long-term means for combatting terrorism. RUSSIA GEOPOLITICS AND EURASIA 90 AN ANALYTICAL STUDY OF RUSSIA’S ROLE IN EURASIAN INTEGRATION Eurasia in the context of geography refers to a single continent encompassing vast territories of Europe and Asia while the political context refers to its historical, cultural and political interconnections. Shahzada Rahim Abbas analyses Russian geopolitical thinking in the creation of a Eurasian Union to counter the hegemony of the Atlanticists. He also examines Russia’s role in the reintegration of the post-Soviet space. EVOLVING SOCIAL AND REGIONAL SYMPTOMS THE UNSPOKEN CONFLICT OF WESTERN SAHARA 106 Western Sahara has been the most populous and largest non-self- governing territory since 1963. Conflict in the area is mainly between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. Kanika Sansanwal and Rahul Kamath analyse the claims of the Sahrawi, including their demand for self-determination. They also offer possible formulae to end the conflict, keeping in mind the best interests of all disputants. WORLD AFFAIRS SUMMER 2020 (APRIL – JUNE) VOL 24 NO 2 5 TACKLING VENEZUELA’S HYPERINFLATION 120 Suyash Chandak highlights some of the major factors accounting for Venezuela’s economic crisis and hyperinflation, rooted in the almost exclusive dependency of the country on oil exports as well as profligate and corrupt public policies. He asserts that a reform of the monetary system would require a change of government and necessitate international assistance to bring back confidence in the national currency and economy. CITIZENS’ TRUST IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT 128 EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA Through a questionnaire administered to a cross-section of Ethiopian society in Bahir Dar, Taye Demissie Beshi and Ranvinderjit Kaur analyse peoples’ trust in local government. Their findings reveal a low level of trust and while gender, age and political affiliation influence the level of trust in the local administration, the educational level and income do not. VIOLENCE ON WOMEN 142 AN “ACCEPTABLE” ASSERTION IN PAKISTAN Women in Pakistan live in a world structured by strict codes of family ties, religion and tribal customs. In recent years, pervasive repression and violence have literally pushed women back into their homes for fear of reprisals. Sanchita Bhattacharya asserts that Pakistan today is juggling between repressive customs and borrowed modernisation, causing
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