ANALYSIS OF LAG TIME FOR DECEMBER 2014 FLOOD INCCIDENT IN RIVER BASIN,

NURUL FATYHAH BINTI BAHARUDDIN

Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for award of the degree of Bachelor of Civil Engineering (Hons)

Faculty of Civil Engineering & Earth Resources UNIVERSITI MALAYSIA

JANUARY 2016

vi

ABSTRACT

Kelantan River Basin is highly vulnerable to the risk of flood. Frequent flooding can cause a lot of cost property damages and losses of lives. December 2014 flood event was on an unprecedented scale due to extreme rain rate rainfall. The water level increase rapidly and the local people do not expected the situation become worst. These research focus of analysing lag time, (∆t) for flood event in Basin occurred during the end of December 2014 (from 20 until 31). The research area covered the area that effected during the flood event; Gua Musang, , Tanah Merah, and . In this research, Auto-estimator method was used to derived hourly rain rate satellite-based rainfall data from satellite image of top of cloud temperature data taken from the public domain meanwhile the water level data obtained from Department of Irrigation & Drainage (DID).In addition, rain gauge hourly rainfall from DID also taken for comparison against satellite-based rainfall data. The estimated value and measured value shows a very good agreement (r = 0.905 to 0.99). The regression line fitted through origin has a slope of 0.811 to 1.134 the dataset. In this research there are three places to measure the water level starts from the upstream basin; Tangga Krai, Jambatan Guillemard and Tambatan DiRaja. From the analysis of the time series graphs of rainfall and river water levels show a lag time between the occurrence of first extreme rainfall in the upstream with water rising to the level of danger were 3,9 and 28 hours in Tangga Krai, Jambatan Guillemard and Tambatan DiRaja, respectively. Neglecting the lag time between rainfall and water level rise to dangerous level at Tangga Krai, it found that the lag time between the water level of danger at Tangga Krai and Jambatan Guillemard, also between Tangga Krai and Tambatan DiRaja were 6 and 17 hour. It comparable with DID records. On top of that, the satellite-based data from public domain able to be used for the flood forecasting in future will give benefit to relevant parties in future to ensure the systematic planning in flood management system.

vii

ABSTRAK

Lembangan Sungai Kelantan amat terdedah kepada risiko banjir. Banjir yang kerap boleh menyebabkan banyak kerosakan harta benda dan kehilangan nyawa. Banjir pada Disember 2014 dikatakan berada di dalam skala yang belum pernah berlaku sebelum ini dan disebabkan oleh kadar hujan melampau hujan. Paras air meningkat dengan cepat dan penduduk tidak menjangka keadaan menjadi teruk. Tumpuan penyelidikan ini adalah untuk menganalisis masa lag, (Δt) bagi kejadian banjir di Lembangan Sungai Kelantan yang berlaku pada akhir Disember 2014 (dari 20 hingga 31). Kawasan kajian meliputi kawasan yang terjejas teruk semasa kejadian banjir; Gua Musang, Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas dan Kota Bharu. Dalam kajian ini, kaedah Auto-estimator digunakan untuk mendapatkan data hujan berasaskan satelit. Kadar hujan setiap jam yang diperolehi daripada imej satelit dari data suhu awan yang diambil dari domain awam, sementara itu data paras air yang diperolehi daripada Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran (JPS). Di samping itu, data hujan setiap jam dari JPS juga diambil untuk perbandingan terhadap data hujan berasaskan satelit. Data yang dianggar dan data diukur menunjukkan perbandingan yang sangat baik (r = 0.905 - 0.99). Garis regresi melalui titik asal menunjukkan kecerunan 0.811-1.134 dataset. Dalam kajian ini terdapat tiga tempat untuk mengukur paras air bermula dari lembangan hulu; Tangga Krai, Jambatan Guillemard dan Tambatan DiRaja. Daripada analisis graf siri masa hujan dan air sungai peringkat menunjukkan jarak masa antara berlakunya hujan lebat pertama di hulu sungai dengan air yang semakin meningkat ke tahap yang bahaya adalah selama 3, 9 dan 28 jam di Tangga Krai, Jambatan Guillemard dan Tambatan DiRaja. Dengan mengabaikan jarak masa di antara hujan dan paras air meningkat ke tahap berbahaya di Tangga Krai, didapati bahawa jarak masa di antara paras air bahaya di Tangga Krai dan Jambatan Guillemard, juga antara Tangga Krai dan Tambatan DiRaja adalah selama 6 dan 17 jam. Data ini selari dengan JPS rekod. Selain itu, data yang berasaskan satelit dari domain awam dapat digunakan untuk ramalan banjir pada masa akan datang akan memberi manfaat kepada pihak yang berkaitan pada masa akan datang bagi memastikan perancangan yang sistematik dalam sistem pengurusan banjir.

viii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page TITLE PAGE SUPERVISOR’S DECLARATION ii STUDENTS’S DECLARATION iii DEDICATION iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v ABSTRACT vi ABSTRAK vii TABLE OF CONTENTS viii LIST OF TABLES xi LIST OF FIGURES xii LIST OF SYMBOLS xiv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xv

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Problem Statement 3 1.3 Objectives 6 1.4 Scope of Study 6 1.5 Study Area 7 1.6 Significant of Study 9 1.7 Thesis Structure 9

CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Flood in Kelantan 11 2.3 Chronology Of The Flood In Kelantan In December 2014 12 2.4 Flood routing 17 2.5 Satellite-based rainfall data 18

ix

2.6 Auto-estimator Method 19 2.6.1 Precipitation Rate Equations 19 2.7 Summary 20

CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY

3.1 Methodology 21 3.2 Study Area 23 3.3 Data Collecting 24 3.4 Pre-processing 27 3.5 Processing 28 3.4.1 Auto-estimator Method 28 3.4.2 Statistical Correlation 29 3.4.3 Descriptive Statistics 29 3.6 Output 32 3.7 Summary 32

CHAPTER 4 RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS

4.1 Introduction 33 4.2 Validation Analysis 34 4.3 Lag Time (∆ t) of Water Level Increment 40 4.4 Lag Time (∆T) Analysis 42 4.3.1 Lag time (∆t) of water level in Tangga Krai Flow 42 with the influence of rainfall rate at Gua Musang and Kuala Krai. 4.3.2 Lag time (∆t) of water level in Jambatan Guillemard 44 Flow with the influence of rainfall rate at Gua Musang, Kuala Krai and Tanah Merah. 4.3.3 Lag time (∆t) of water level in Tambatan DiRaja 46 Flow with the influence of rainfall rate at Gua Musang, Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and

x

Kota Bharu. 4.5 Summary 48

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 Conclusion 49 5.2 Evaluation for Objective 50 5.2.1 Sub-objective 1:To validate satellite-based rainfall 50 data 5.2.2 Sub-objective 2: To analyse lag time (∆ t), of rainfall 50 incident with the water level at Kelantan River Basin 5.2 Recommendations for Future Research 51

REFERENCES 52 APPENDICES

A Daily water level data for Kelantan River Basin 56 B Daily Rainfall data for Jeti Kastam/Tambatan DiRaja 61 C Satellite-based rainfall & water level data for Tangga Krai 67 Flow D Satellite-based rainfall & water level data for Jambatan 74 Guillemard Flow

xi

LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Title Page

3.1 Population and area of major cities in Kelantan 24

3.2 Selected water level dataset by DID (21 December 2014) 28

3.3 Rainfall rate using Auto-Estimator method at Gua Musang 29

(20 December 2014)

4.1 Lag time of Tangga Krai Flow Influence by Gua Musang 42

and Kuala Krai Rainfall Rates

4.2 Lag time of Jambatan Guillemard Flow Influence by Gua 44

Musang, Kuala Krai and Tanah Merah Rainfall Rates

4.3 Lag time of Tambatan DiRaja Flow Influence by Gua 46

Musang, Kuala Krai , Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota

Bharu Rainfall Rates

xii

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No. Title Page

1.1 Flood in Kelantan 2

1.2 Flood Article 3

1.3 Flood Article 4

1.4 Flood Article 4

1.5 Flood Article 5

1.6 Flood Article 5

1.7 The Kelantan River Basin Boundary 8

2.1 Pam station at Kuala Krai under water during flood 12

2.2 The area near to Tambatan DiRaja on December 24. 13

2.3 The view of Kuala Krai district on December 25 14

2.4 The view of SMK on December 25 14

2.5 The view of Stadium Sultan Muhammad IV 15

2.6 The riverbank area at Dataran Air Muleh, Pasir Mas 16

2.7 The water overflows the riverbank at Dataran Air Muleh, Pasir 16

Mas

3.1 Flow diagram of Research Methodology 22

3.2 Water Level Dataset Retrieved from D.I.D website 24

3.3 Onsite Rainfall Dataset Retrieved from D.I.D website 25

3.4 The interface of Satellite base Dataset (IR4) 25

3.5 Time-series graph for 20 December 2014 30

3.6 Time-series graph for 31 December 2014 30

3.7 Time-series graph for Tangga Krai Flow 31

xiii

3.8 Time-series graph for Jambatan Guillemard Flow 31

3.9 Time-series graph for Tambatan DiRaja Flow 31

4.1 Correlation of rainfall rate for 20 December 2014 34

4.2 Correlation of rainfall rate for 21 December 2014 35

4.3 Correlation of rainfall rate for 22 December 2014 36

4.4 Correlation of rainfall rate for 23 December 2014 37

4.5 Correlation of rainfall rate for 24 December 2014 38

4.6 Correlation of rainfall rate for 25 December 2014 40

4.7 Lag time for water level of Kelantan River Basin based on DID 41

dataset

4.8 Lag Time for Tangga Krai flow 43

4.9 Lag Time for Jambatan Guillemard flow 45

4.10 Lag Time for Tambatan DiRaja flow 47

xiv

LIST OF SYMBOLS

∆t Lag Time

xv

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

DID Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia

JPS Jabatan Pengaliran & Saliran Malaysia

BH Berita Harian

UM Utusan Malaysia

NSC National Security Council

TSD The Sun Daily

PR Precipitation Radar

1

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Flood defined as a situation where water flows exceed the carrying capacity of a river resulting in overflows over the river banks (Goh, 1981). Another definition of a flood is considered to be unusually high stage of the river. It is often described as that stage at which the stream channel becomes filled and above which it overflows its banks (Saul, 1992). Normally, this overflow happens when heavy rain takes place non- stop for a long period time at certain location. It will cause place that usually dries be overflow with water. It situation may also bring death and properties damage. 90% of population who affected by natural hazards are subjected to flood (Haider, 2006)

The most devastating natural disaster experienced in Malaysia is flood. The flooding of Malaysian rivers is mainly due to the high amount of rainfall in river basins. Malaysia is a tropical country, receiving more than 2 500mm of rain annually. There are total of 189 river basins with the main channels flowing directly to the throughout Malaysia, including and (89 of the river basins are in Peninsula Malaysia, 78 in Sabah and 22 in Sarawak), and 85 of them are prone to recurrent flooding. The estimated area vulnerable to flood disaster is approximately 9% of the total Malaysia area, and is affecting almost 4.82 million people which is around 22% of the total population of the country (DID, 2009).

2

In Malaysia history prior December2014 flood incident, the massive flood occurred in 1886, 1967, 1971, 2007, and 2008 and lately this situation has continuously worsened. One of the severest is the December 2006 and January 2007 floods, the rescue and recovery departments has learn a lot of experiences as a results of these floods (Barton, 1994, Drabek, 1995, Ewen et al., 2007 and Tompkins et al., 2008 ).

Kelantan on the other hand has faced a number of severe floods over several past years and its vulnerability to these resulted from the rapid urban development of the Kelantan. The flood incident in December 2014 was the worst (Figure 1.1) The impacts of river flooding are even more damaging and effect economic activities and the livelihoods of people in the area.

Figure 1.1: Flood in Kelantan

Source: zulkarnainh.wordpress.com (2015)

3

1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Flooding is a natural event, and no matter how hard a government or society tried to minimize or to stop it completely (FRMP 2012). Due to unexpected flood in December 2014, the villagers that lived in effected area do not have enough time to move to the higher place since the transportation cannot be used and the main roads also inundation with water. The situations become worst during 25 December 2014 when water level increase rapidly at the downstream area such as Pasir Mas and Kota Bharu. During that period most of the locals at the downstream area did not expected the increasing of water level will cause flood at their area.

In December 2014 due to extreme rainfall rate, flood event hit almost 90 percent of Kelantan state; only a few district in Kelantan did not affected with the flood. Figures 1.2 to 1.6 are some of the articles from the local newspaper about flood in Kelantan. The articles show the difficulty faces by the villagers during the flood occur. The daily activities were disturbed and it causes a huge amount of losses. Due to the high water level and strong current flow, some of the affected area not able connected and the aid not able extended to the victim. It is necessity for flood forecasting in a practical way to save lives and property. The possibility of satellite-based rainfall data from public domain to be use together with water level data from DID to determine the lag time of between extreme rainfall rate and increasing of water level should be study.

Figure 1.2 Flood Article (Berita Harian, Dec. 2014)

4

Figure 1.3 Flood Article (Utusan, Dec. 2014)

Figure 1.4 Flood Article (MalaysiaKini, Dec. 2014)

5

Figure 1.5 Flood Article (Says, Dec. 2014)

Figure 1.6 Flood Article (Utusan Online, Dec. 2014)

6

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF STUDY

The main objective of the study was to analyse of lag time for December 2014 flood incident in Kelantan River Basin. To achieve the main objective of this study, there were specific objectives to accomplish as follow;

1. To estimate and validate satellite-based rainfall data, and

2. To analyse lag time (∆ t), of rainfall incident with the water level at Kelantan River Basin.

1.4 SCOPE OF STUDY

This study was limited to the following: a. The study area was limited to affected areas along Kelantan River Basin during flood in December 2014 which is Gua Musang, Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota Bharu (Fig 1.7). b. The period of study was limited from 20 December until 31 December 2014. c. Satellite based rainfall data downloaded from public domain were used as hour-rainfall data d. The water level data and onsite rainfall data obtained from Department of Irrigation & Drainage Malaysia

7

1.5 STUDY AREA

Kelantan River Basin is located in the north eastern part of Peninsular Malaysia. The river is about 248 km long and drains an area of 13,100 km2, occupying more than 85% of the State of Kelantan. It divides into the Galas and Lebir Rivers near Kuala Krai, about 100 km from the river mouth. The Kelantan River system flows northward passing through such major towns as Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota Bharu, before finally discharging into the South China Sea (Figure 1.7).

The basin has an annual rainfall of about 2,500 mm much of which occurs during the North-East Monsoon between mid-October and mid-January. The mean annual temperature at Kota Bharu is 27.5° C with mean relative humidity of 81%. The mean flow of the Kelantan River measured at Guillemard Bridge is 557.5 m3/s (DID, 2009).

December 2014, Kelantan experience the heavy flood. The flood was known as “Bah Kuning” (yellow flood) as the brown and muddy coloured of water. As much as 255 mm (10 inches) of rain fall in 24 hours between December 21 and 22 in the east coast states, according to the (MMD, 2014). It had further worsened the flood in the states. On December 23, the Malaysian Meteorological Department issued a high level warning of heavy rain in parts of peninsular Malaysia. Adding to that, the high tide phenomenon which are influenced by the moon were also identified as one of the major contributors for the heavy flood in December 2014.

The area which damage from the flood event was covered near to the major rives at the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The area along Kelantan River system which is Kuala Krai, Tanah Merah, Pasir Mas and Kota Bharu effected badly during flood incident in December 2014. The National Security Council reports that the total number of displaced flood victims around the 158,476 (MKN, 2014).

8

Figure 1.7 The Kelantan River Basin Boundary

9

1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY

From this study, the pattern of the rainfall and the water level at Kelantan River Basin during the flood 2014 incident can be determined. Beside the pattern of time travelling of the flood flow also can be determine. Therefore, the comprehensive planning can be made to ensure all the villagers can be alert to make preparation and planning with any possible of flood incident in future. The data is importance and can be used for the authorized party such as Department of Drainage and Irrigation (DID) or Kelantan State Government for future development.

1.7 THESIS STRUCTURE

This research comprises of five chapters. The first chapter consists of introduction section. It states the background, problem statement, objectives of study, scope of study and lastly the significant of study. For chapter two, the key terms in- purpose for this research are described and also the literature review that related and suitable for this research. Chapter three explains the research methodology for research data collected and the method of data analysis to be employed. For chapter four, the results obtained from study area and year of study were presented and the analysis from the result was discussed. Finally, chapter five comprises the conclusion from the overall chapter and relates some recommendations for future work on research field.

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 INTRODUCTION

A flood issue is synonym with the community especially for those who live in East Coast area of Peninsular Malaysia which is Kelantan, and Pahang state. In Kelantan, flooding is the most devastating natural hazard that usually occurs during end of the year. Flood takes hours or even days to develop, the resident have time to prepare for moving to the higher place. There are many factor causes the flood. The high rainfall intensity, the design of drainage that not enough to support the demand and also the water discharge system that has been disturbed by human activity such as human development and deforestation are several factor that cause the flood.

Over the year, flood leaves a very huge impact and causes suffering to human life and loss of materials and properties. Floods are the most common occurring natural disaster that affects human and its surrounding environment (Gebeyehu, 1989). The flood hazard comprises many aspects including structural and tensional damage, loss of life and property, contamination of food, water and other material, disruption of socio- economic activity including transport and communication, and in some cases the spoiling of agricultural land (Jamaluddin, 1985).

11

2.2 FLOODS IN KELANTAN

Hydrological Kelantan River Basin is one of the areas in Malaysia that experienced frequent flooding. The major flood episode happen in 1967 caused the area to be declared as Emergency Area as 84 percent of residents of Kelantan State were affected and a lot destruction of basic facilities such as roads and hospitals (Low, 1983; Sham, 1973). The floods that occur in Kelantan in 1967 also known as “Bah Merah” (red flood) as the water, which inundated almost all parts of the state, was reddish in colour, a departure from the usual milk tea or brown-coloured water. In a research article by Sham Sani (1974), about 84.0 percent of the population in Kelantan were affected and at least 20.0 percent or 125,000 people had to be moved to safer grounds. Damage was estimated to be in the region of RM 30,000,000. The National Security Council (NSC) confirmed the massive flood that hit Kelantan was the worst in the history of the state. Water levels of the recent floods superseded the floods of 1967.According to the council’s report, the water level of Sungai Kelantan at Tambatan DiRaja, which has a danger level of 25 metres, reached 34.17 metres last month compared to 29.70 metres in 2004 and 33.61 metres in 1967.The levels at Tangga Krai, which has a danger level of 5 metres, reached 7.03 metres compared to 6.70 metres in 2004 and 6.22 metres in 1967.Kampung Manek Urai, Kampung Manjur and Kampung Karangan in Kelantan as among the worst-hit areas during the floods that inundated the east coast of the peninsula, with houses and villages in ruins.

12

2.3 CHRONOLOGY OF THE FLOOD IN KELANTAN IN DECEMBER 2014

The New Age (TNA,12 Jan 2015) reported that the torrential rains that began on the 17th of December, 2014, led to flash flooding and forced 3390 people in Kuala Krai, Kelantan, to flee their homes. Later, three days of continuous heavy rain fell from the 21st to the 23rd of December, 2014, in Gua Musang. This was a record-setting rainfall of 1295 mm, equivalent to the amount of rain usually seen in a span of 64 days. As a result, the water levels of three major rivers, the Sungai Galas at , the Sungai Lebir at Tualang and the Sungai Kelantan, rose drastically above the water levels considered dangerous. Figure 2.1 shows the situations of flood at one of main road at Kuala Krai.

The local newspaper, The Sun Daily (TSD, 5 Jan 2015) has recorded the chronology of the flood at Kelantan started since December, 17 where the low area in Kuala Krai and start affected by floods, the flood evacuees rose to 2,084 people during that day. In December 20, TSD reported that the number of evacuees in Kelantan increasing drastically from 15,002 on December 19 to 19,186. 22 main roads closed in Kelantan with the total evacuees increase to 20,709 people at 84 evacuation centre during December 23.

Figure 2.1 Pam station at Kuala Krai under water during flood

(Source: The Sun Daily, Dec. 2014)

13

Another local newspaper, Utusan Online (28 December 2014) reported that during December 25, Kelantan state is almost paralyzed when the water of the Sungai Kelantan start overflow into the Kota Bharu city in the afternoon. Even until 10 pm on 24 December, the water flow was getting extremely fast and accelerated at high rate, it has submerged the whole riverbank area of Kelantan River and overflow to the town. The authorities also issued an immediate warning siren and evacuation order to residents in the vicinity. The affected areas are Kampung Kota, Kampung Sireh, Jalan Che Su, Jalan Post Office Lama, Jalan Tok Hakim, Bunut Payung and Tambatan DiRaja (Figure 2.2).

Figure 2.2 The area near to Tambatan DiRaja on December 24.

(Source: Utusan Online, Dec. 2014)

An article from Berita Harian (BH) on December 25, Kuala Krai district was reported totally lost under water on December 25 (Figure 2.3). Almost 500 victims trapped at Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Manek Urai, Kuala Krai. The victims have evacuated to the school since 20 December and the water level keeps increasing until it reaches the third level of the school. Bad weather and strong currents flow become the reason for the rescue team failed to do the rescue operation for the victim at the school (Figure 2.4). The total evacuees increase to 30,687 people at 9 districts with 146 evacuation centre opened during December 24.