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India Daily, February 27, 2017

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India Daily, February 27, 2017 INDIA DAILY February 27, 2017 India 23-Feb 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Sensex 28,893 0.1 5.5 11.7 Nifty 8,940 0.1 5.5 12.2 Contents Global/Regional indices Dow Jones 20,822 0.1 3.6 8.7 Special Reports Nasdaq Composite 5,845 0.2 3.3 8.3 Strategy FTSE 7,244 (0.4) 0.8 5.9 Strategy: La-la land Nikkei 19,101 (0.9) (1.9) 3.9 Hang Seng 23,966 (0.6) 2.6 5.5 Strategy: The future of savings in India: Watch it grow, not glow, Part 2 KOSPI 2,085 (0.4) 0.1 5.6 Value traded – India Strategy: The price of clean, cool air, Part 2 Cash (NSE+BSE) 363 286 156 Daily Alerts Derivatives (NSE) 9,590 5,203 5,365 Deri. open interest 3,849 3,071 3,111 Sector alerts Automobiles: Southern India was immune to demonetization: State-wise auto sales trend Forex/money market Change, basis points Consumer Products: Month in review - January 2017: Promotions recede as 23-Feb 1-day 1-mo 3-mo RM inflation inches up Rs/US$ 66.8 (14) (139) (174) 10yr govt bond, % 7.4 - 56 93 Energy: To integrate, merge or privatize? Net investment (US$ mn) 22-Feb MTD CYTD (1,170 FIIs 38 2,903 ) MFs 133 881 6,955 Top movers Change, % Best performers 23-Feb 1-day 1-mo 3-mo JPA IN Equity 14.8 6.1 40.5 103.4 JSP IN Equity 116.6 5.8 47.0 74.9 IDEA IN Equity 119.6 6.2 53.3 62.4 TTAN IN Equity 433.0 (1.6) 16.1 36.9 DLFU IN Equity 148.9 1.9 9.8 32.5 Worst performers DIVI IN Equity 749.6 (0.2) 5.8 (35.1) ARBP IN Equity 666.3 (1.8) (6.6) (10.0) DRRD IN Equity 2887.4 (0.5) (3.6) (8.9) CRG IN Equity 67.6 1.3 0.7 (8.2) UBBL IN Equity 786.1 (0.7) (3.3) (8.0) For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. INDIA Strategy Portfolio FEBRUARY 27, 2017 UPDATE BSE-30: 28,893 La-la land. (1) General bullishness around global equities and (2) sector- and company- specific developments or anticipated events have further (1) reduced the reward-risk balance for the broader Indian market and (2) removed some of the few remaining areas of ‘positive’ mispricing in the Indian market. In our view, corporate banks are one of the few remaining sectors with favorable gap between price and value. The broad Indian market looks fully valued at 17.6X March 2018E ‘EPS’. QUICK NUMBERS General bullishness around global equities reduces reward-risk balance in general MSCI DM index up The general bullishness around global equities has resulted in strong performance of most DM 8%, MSCI EM 10% and EM markets over the past three months. In particular, EMs have bounced back from their and India 14% in December 2016 lows (see Exhibit 1), helped by the USD weakness over this period (see Exhibit the past three 2). The Indian market has outperformed other EMs over the past one month (see Exhibit 3) months helped by (1) limited perceived impact of demonetization and (2) several sector- and company- specific developments and expected events, which have been received well by the market. Nifty-50 Index at 17.6X FY2018E ‘EPS’ AXSB, HDFCB, RIL and telecom stocks rally on technical factors and expected positive events and 15X FY2019E ‘EPS’ The strong rally in a few large cap. stocks such as AXSB, BHARTI, HDFCB, IDEA and RIL has reduced the appeal of some of our recommended names (HDFCB and RIL). Also, valuations may Nifty-50 Index net have run ahead of fundamentals in the case of AXSB and telecom stocks on expectations of profits to grow (1) corporate action in the case of AXSB and (2) better pricing in the telecom sector post 19.5% and 16% for industry consolidation. AXSB trades at 2.3X FY2018E BV despite likely increase in NPLs in its FY2018E and corporate loan book. BHARTI and IDEA trade at over 2X FY2018-19E BV on very low or FY2019E negative RoEs. Certain corporate banks offer favorable gap between price and value Any government-backed resolution of NPLs may result in a significant re-rating of corporate banks. Banks seem to have broadly recognized bad loans and NPL formation may have peaked (see Exhibit 4) but they face significant challenges to resolve the bad loans. In our view, a joint private-government initiative may work with the private sector providing the capital and expertise to manage the bad loans and the government’s legal backing to the PSUs to enable them to make suitable ‘haircuts’ to bad loans. Meanwhile, (1) strong global steel prices and profitability may lead to improved cash flows, deleveraging and even potential upgrades; most steel assets are NPLs in the books of banks and (2) signing of PPAs by state governments may Sanjeev Prasad result in low slippages in the power sector; most are standard assets in the books of banks. ICICIBC and SBI have the right ingredients for significant re-rating Sunita Baldawa We see ICICI and SBI as good plays on (1) ongoing corporate deleveraging, (2) peaking of stressed assets (recognition) and potential government efforts towards resolution, (3) potential Anindya Bhowmik normalization of credit costs (LLPs) from 2HFY18, (4) possible upgrades in stressed assets in the steel sector that can bridge the current large gap between adjusted and reported book, (5) the structural shift towards retail lending given their strong liability franchise, which can support their transition to low-yield, low-risk retail lending businesses without a meaningful erosion in their NIMs, RoAs and RoEs and (6) financial savings; both have very good non-bank businesses in asset management and life insurance. For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Strategy India Changes to Model Portfolio Exhibit 5 is our revised Model Portfolio. We reduce (1) weight on HDFCB by 200 bps to 800 bps noting the stock’s strong performance and full valuations (3.7X FY2018E BV and 3.2X FY2019E BV) and (2) weights on NTPC and PWGR by 100 bps each to 200 bps and 300 bps respectively. NTPC and PWGR stocks have delivered strong performance over the past 24 months and we see lower upside to our fair values for the stocks. Also, we see (1) limited scope for meaningful interest rate declines as the bulk of rate cuts may be largely over in the current economic cycle and (2) regulatory overhang from likely reduction to regulated returns for regulated generation and transmission assets for the next regulatory cycle (starting April 1, 2019). We add ARBP to the model portfolio with a weight of 200 bps noting its inexpensive valuations at 14.4X FY2018E EPS and 12.9X FY2019E EPS, which adequately factor in potential pricing pressure in the US, in our view. We note that ARBP has (1) a well-diversified portfolio in the US as its top-20 products contribute only 40% of its US revenues and (2) a strong pipeline of filings for new products. We increase weight on (1) SBI by 100 bps to 800 bps and (2) IOCL by 100 bps to 300 bps; IOCL trades at 10X FY2018E EPS, about 30% discount to its downstream oil peers BPCL and HPCL. We struggle to find meaningful value in our coverage universe with very few stocks offering meaningful upside to our 12-month fair valuations based on FY2019E earnings. The broad Indian market looks quite fairly valued (see Exhibits 6-7 for valuation of the Nifty-50 Index) and we model 19.5% and 16% growth in the net profits of the Nifty-50 Index for FY2018 and FY2019. We would clarify that we are not confident about a strong economic recovery and our projected strong growth in net profits of the Nifty-50 Index largely reflects (1) normalization of profits in the Indian banking sector with lower LLPs for FY2018E and FY2019E and (2) recovery in global commodity prices in 2HFY17, which will result in higher profits for the energy and metals & mining stocks under our coverage. As can be seen in Exhibit 8, the banking, energy and metals & mining sectors account for 62% of the incremental profits of the Nifty-50 Index in FY2018. Lastly, these sectors trade at significantly lower multiples versus the market’s as can be seen in Exhibit 9. Exhibit 1: Both DMs and EMs have performed strongly since late December 2016 Performance of MSCI EM Index and MSCI World Index in past five years (base=100) MSCI World MSCI EM 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Jul-12 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-13 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-16 Jan-13 Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3 India Strategy Exhibit 2: US dollar has weakened against major currencies since December 2016 Trend in dollar index (X) DXY 104 102 100 98 96 94 92 90 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jun-16 Feb-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Sep-16 Apr-16 Dec-16 Nov-16 Mar-16 Aug-16 May-16 Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities Exhibit 3: EMs have rebounded in the past three months and India has outperformed other EMs Performance (not annualized) of emerging and developed markets over period of time (%) % change in local currency % change in USD 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr 5-yr 1-mo 3-mo 6-mo 1-yr 3-yr 5-yr Developed markets Australia 3 6 4 17 7 35 5 10 5 24 (8) (3) France 1 8 11 16 12 41 (1) 8 3 10 (14) 10 Germany 3 12 13 27 24 74 1 12 5 21 (5) 36 Hong Kong 6 7 6 25 7 13 6 7 6 25 7 13 Japan 1 7 17 21 30 101 3 5 4 20 18 44 Singapore 4 10 9 17 1 5 4 11 4 16 (10) (7) UK 1 7 7 22 7 23 2 7 0 9 (20) (4) US (Dow Jones) 5 9 12 26 29 60 5 9 12 26 29 60 US (S&P500) 4 7 9 23 29 73 4 7 9 23 29 73 MSCI World 3 8 6 20 11 42 Emerging markets Brazil 7 11 20 62 46 5 10 22 25 109 11 (42) India 7 11 3 26 45 64 9 14 3 29 35 20 Indonesia 2 3 (1) 15 15 38 2 5 (1) 16 1 (6) Korea 2 6 3 10 8 4 5 10 1 18 1 3 Malaysia 3 5 2 2 (7) 10 2 5 (8) (4) (31) (26) Mexico 3 5 (0) 10 20 25 9 7 (10)
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