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A Year of Consolidation

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A Year of Consolidation Economic Insights Economics | July 12015 2014/15: A Year of Consolidation Economic & financial perspectives Unfulfilled expectations: Total returns on Australian shares (All Ordinaries Accumulation index) grew by 5.7 per cent over 2014/15 after rising by 17.6 per cent in 2013/14 (20-year average +10.3 per cent). Notably, back in late April, the total return index was at record highs and on track to 14.5 per cent annual gains. Other returns higher: Returns on dwellings grew by 14.1 per cent in 2014/15 with returns on government bonds up by 5.8 per cent. So for the second year, bonds, property and shares have all lifted. The report is useful to assist investors to start planning for 2015/16 What does it all mean? In late April, total returns on Australian shares (shares prices and dividends) were at record highs. And the ASX 200 was on the cusp of breaking through 6,000 points. But a raft of jitters served to drag the sharemarket lower over the final two months of the 2015 financial year. So, 2014/15 can be best described as a year of consolidation for investors. Greece returned to haunt investors. Interest rates were trimmed to all-time lows. A stimulatory Federal Budget was unveiled. China continued to rebalance its economy, as did Australia. The US Federal Reserve still hadn’t decided to lift interest rates. And higher bond yields served to check the upward progress of global sharemarkets. But despite the challenges, returns on shares, residential property and bonds all lifted over the past year while interest rates and the Aussie dollar ended lower than a year ago. And the record economic expansion continued. The economy probably grew by around 2.5 per cent in 2014/15 and we expect growth of around 3.0 per cent in 2015/16. Underlying inflation may lift from 2.25 per cent to 2.75 per cent over the coming financial year while unemployment may ease modestly from 6 per cent currently to around 5.5 per cent. Overall, you would describe the economic and financial performance as good, but not great. Investment returns lifted again despite challenges and inflation remained under control. And record low interest rates, budget stimulus and a lower dollar all served to maintain the record economic expansion. Craig James – Chief Economist (Author) Produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report. The report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individual’s objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. In the case of certain securities Commonwealth Bank of Australia is or may be the only market maker. This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 a wholly owned but not guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This report is approved and distributed in the UK by Commonwealth Bank of Australia incorporated in Australia with limited liability. Registered in England No. BR250 and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This report does not purport to be a complete statement or summary. For the purpose of the FCA rules, this report and related services are not intended for private customers and are not available to them. Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report. Economic Insights: A Year of Consolidation What does the data show? International economy The International Monetary Fund estimates that the global economy grew by 3.4 per cent in 2014, just below the long-term average growth rate of 3.6 per cent. In April the IMF estimated the global economy would grow by 3.5 per cent in 2015 and 3.8 per cent in 2016. China is tipped to grow by 6.8 per cent this year after 7.4 per cent growth in 2014. The IMF expects the US economy to grow by 3.1 per cent in both 2015 and 2016 after 2.4 per cent growth in 2014. Domestic economy The Australian economy grew by 2.5 per cent in both 2012/13 and 2013/14 and will probably grow by around 2.5 per cent in 2014/15. In the year to March 2015 the economy grew by 2.3 per cent – below the decade average of 2.8 per cent and the 15-year average of 3.0 per cent. The inflation rate stands at 1.3 per cent with the underlying rate at 2.3 per cent. For 2014/15 as a whole, the headline rate of inflation should be around 1.8 per cent with the underlying rate around 2.3 per cent. In June 2014 the jobless rate was 6.1 per cent and the latest rate (May 2015) is 6.0 per cent. Interest rates The cash rate fell to a record low of 2.00 per cent, down from 2.50 per cent at the end of June 2014, and courtesy of quarter per cent rate cuts in February and May 2015. The market-determined 90-day bank bill rate fell from 2.79 per cent to 2.15 per cent over 2014/15. Yields on the long bond – 10-year government bond – held between 2.32 per cent and 3.73 per cent. Long-bond yields hit record lows on March 26 and ended 2014/15 near 3.00 per cent. Currencies The Aussie dollar fell by around 23 per cent (Australian dollars per US dollar) over 2014/15. When measured the other way, in US dollars per Australian dollar, the decline for the Aussie was 18.5 per cent. The Aussie started the year around US95 cents and ended the year near US76.80 cents. We have calculated that the Aussie was the 18th weakest against the US dollar of 117 currencies tracked. The strongest currencies were the Guatemalan quetzal (up 1.8 per cent), Costa Rican colón (up 1.7 per cent) and Maldives rufiyaa (up 1.6 per cent). Weakest currencies were the Russian rouble (down 64 per cent), Syrian pound (down 45 per cent) and Brazilian peso (down 41 per cent). In the six months of 2015, the Aussie dollar fell by around 7 per cent against the US dollar, making it the 34th weakest of 117 currencies tracked. The strongest currencies were the Swiss franc (up 7 per cent), Seychelles rupee (up 6.7 per cent) and Malawi kwacha (up 5.3 per cent). Weakest currencies were the Ghanaian cedi (down 41 per cent), Azerbaijani manat (down 33 per cent) and Madagascar ariary (down 24 per cent). July 1 2015 2 Economic Insights: A Year of Consolidation The high for the Aussie dollar in 2014/15 was US95.04c on July 1 2014 and the low was US75.30 cents on April 2 2015. Commodities The Commodity Research Bureau index of commodities prices fell by around 28 per cent over 2014/15, under- performing the Aussie dollar (down around 23 per cent). In terms of those commodities with particular relevance to investors or the economy as a whole, crude oil (down 43 per cent in 2014/15, nickel (down 37 per cent), iron ore (down 37 per cent), copper (down 18 per cent), thermal coal (down 14 per cent), gold (down around 11 per cent) and beef (down 1 per cent). Amongst the gains has been wool (up 24 per cent in Australian dollar terms) and wheat (up 3 per cent). Sharemarket The Australian sharemarket started 2014/15 with the All Ordinaries at 5,382.0 and the ASX200 at 5,395.7. The All Ords ended the year at 5,451.2 points (up 1.3 per cent) with the ASX200 at 5,459.0 (up 1.2 per cent). Mid-sized companies out-performed over 2014/15 with the MidCap50 index up by 7.0 per cent, ahead of the 0.8 per cent growth of the large cap ASX50 index and the 2.8 per cent fall of the smaller company index, the Small Ordinaries. Of the 21 current industry sub-sectors, 14 sectors rose over 2014/15. The key under-performer was Energy, down by 23.7 per cent, followed by Capital Goods (down 23.1 per cent) and Media (down 19.4 per cent). Strongest growth was recorded by Consumer Durable & Apparel sector (up 42.1 per cent), followed by Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology (up 29.6 per cent) and Transportation (up 25.8 per cent). The large Banks sector lifted by just 0.1 per cent with the Resources sector down 19.8 per cent (largely Materials & Energy) but the A-REIT sector (Property Trusts) rose by 15.5 per cent. We estimate that Australia was 41st of 73 global bourses over 2014/15, or a little worse than the mid-point of bourses.
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