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Southern Russia Versus the Global Crisis

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Southern Russia Versus the Global Crisis The Federal Districts of the Russian Federation (RF) Northwest Far East Central Urals Volga Southern Siberian Southern Federal District (SFD) Rostov-on-Don Krasnodar Krai Rostov region Volgograd region Republic of Adygeya Stavropol Krai Republic of Kalmykia Karachaevo-Cherkessia Republic Astrakhan Kabardino-Balkaria Republic region Republic of North Ossetia-Alania Chechen Republic Republic of Ingushetia Republic of Dagestan Federal Education Agency Institute of the National Economy Rostov State Economics University Dr. Vasily Vysokov Southern Russia Versus the Global Crisis A Theoretical and Practical Handbook Rostov-on-Don, 2009 UDC 811.111(075)+338(075) Reviewers: Doctor of Economics, Professor, Honoured Academic V.S. Zolotarev Doctor of Economics, Professor O.G. Semenyuta Translator: Emily Justice Dr. Vasily Vysokov Southern Russia Versus the Global Crisis: A Theoretical and Practical Handbook — Rostov-on-Don: Institute of the National Economy, Rostov State Economics University, 2009 — 154 pages. ISBN 978-5-7972-1398-7 This book presents an analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on the regional economy, taking as its example the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation. Drawing on a detailed analysis of statistical data, Dr. Vysokov gives an overview of the development of southern Russia in the pre-crisis years of 2004–2008, highlighting the region’s strengths and weaknesses. Statistical indicators for the first half of 2009 show that the region is retaining its advantages during the crisis. Analysing the development of the current global crisis in terms of economic dynamics theory and the laws of money circulation and their influence on supply and demand, the author explains how companies in southern Russia can use the crisis to increase their competitiveness in the post- crisis economy. He also examines in detail the development and implementation of post-crisis development programmes, using Center-Invest Bank as an example. The presence or absence of post- crisis development programmes is the main determinant of success in overcoming crisis conditions. In all spheres of the economy, post-crisis development programmes should be based on best international practice, and the public sector is no exception. In his final chapter, Dr. Vysokov bases his proposals for the post-crisis development of the banking system on principles of sustainable development. This book will be an up-to-date aid for students, teachers, business people and civil servants who wish to study the characteristics of the crisis, monitor statistical indicators by sector and region, and gain an understanding of how to produce a post-crisis development programme and organise a business at regional level during a time of global crisis. UDC 811.111(075)+338(075) ISBN 978-5-7972-1398-7 © Dr. Vasily Vysokov, 2009 © Institute of the National Economy Rostov State Economics University, 2009 Contents Dr. Vasily Vysokov Southern Russia Versus the Global Crisis Author’s Foreword ............................................................. 6 Part 1. Southern Russia: Development Vector ............. 8 1.1. Introduction ................................................................ 8 1.2. Development Vector .................................................10 1.3. Population ..................................................................11 1.4. Producers ...................................................................13 1.4.1. Industry ...............................................................13 1.4.2. Agriculture ......................................................... 14 1.4.3. Construction .......................................................18 1.4.4. Transport and Telecommunications .............. 20 1.5. Consumer Market .................................................... 21 1.5.1. Personal Income and Expenditure, Wages ... 21 1.6. Labour Market .......................................................... 25 1.6.1. Unemployment .................................................. 25 1.6.2. Education ........................................................... 26 1.7. Foreign Trade .............................................................27 1.8. SMEs ........................................................................... 28 1.9. Investment ................................................................. 30 1.10. Finances ................................................................... 32 3 Part 2. Southern Russia Versus the Global Crisis ......35 2.1. How Can We Survive the Crisis? ...........................35 2.2. Southern Russia in 2008: Results .........................41 2.3. The Russian Government’s Anti-Crisis Measures: Focus for Southern Russia ..................44 2.4. Problems in Production. January 2009 ...............48 2.5. Southern Russia Q1 2009: Picks Itself Up Again................................................51 2.6. Southern Russia in January-May 2009: Life Continues .......................................................... 54 2.7. Southern Russia’s Markets in 1H 2009 .................61 Part 3. The Sustainable Bank for Southern Russia .... 73 3.1. Introduction .............................................................. 73 3.2. Corporate Governance ............................................ 75 3.3. Mission, Strategy, and Business Planning ........... 80 3.4. Financial Accounting and Reporting .................... 84 3.5. Independent Ratings ............................................... 85 3.6. Sustainable Development Business Model.......... 85 3.7. Lending to the Real Sector ..................................... 88 3.7.1. Services for Business Customers .................... 88 3.7.2. SMEs ................................................................... 90 3.7.3. Energy-Efficiency Financial Engineering ..... 92 3.7.4. Agribusiness ...................................................... 95 3.8. Retail Business ......................................................... 97 4 Contents 3.9. Operations Development ........................................ 99 3.9.1. Developing the Information System .............100 3.9.2. Expansion of the Branch Network ................102 3.9.3. Internal Control ...............................................106 3.9.4. Risk Management ............................................109 3.10. Center-Invest Bank’s Post-Crisis Development Model .........................115 3.11. The Sustainable Bank for Southern Russia ......117 Part 4. Sustainable Banking as the Basis for the Post-Crisis Banking System ............................ 124 4.1. A G20 for 139 ......................................................... 124 4.2. The Banking Business ............................................127 4.3. A Sustainable Banking Business ...........................130 4.4. Payments and Settlements ....................................132 4.5. Investment Financing .............................................133 4.6. Market Interactions ................................................135 4.7. Market Regulation ..................................................136 4.8. Independent Opinions ...........................................137 4.9. Self-Regulation .......................................................141 4.10. Planning Sustainable Development.................. 144 4.11. Sustainably Nurturing Personnel ...................... 145 4.12. Operations Development .................................... 146 4.13. Product Development ..........................................147 4.14. International Anti-Crisis Marketing ................. 148 5 Author’s Foreword On different occasions, I have happened to hear opinions which reflect the mind set of the people of Russia: 1.“Even the deepest crisis is not universal.” (1998) 2.“The crisis only exists for foolish people.” (2008) There is an important practical corollary to these statements: “T he crisis will end as soon as you have produced your own post-crisis development programme”. In Russia, people in official circles began talking about the crisis at the end of September 2008; already by early October, Center-Invest Bank had devised a post-crisis development programme for its customers. When company owners and managers learnt about this programme, they showed new-found confidence: “Yes, difficult times lie ahead, no one will be buying haute couture, but everyone will be buying the jeans made by my factory!” “I shouldn’t count on any new boats being built, but they’ll be repairing their old ones in my yard!” “Only 40% of meat packing factories will survive, but those that do will be buying my casing to make their sausages!” Encouraged by this optimism, Center-Invest Bank presented its pro- gramme “Southern Russia Versus the Global Crisis” to its western partners in Frankfurt, Cologne and London. They all reacted with a mixture of unmistakeable interest, envy and hope when they heard of the confidence of the business community of southern Russian. 6 Author’s Foreword I was invited by Bloomberg to speak live on their television show, which for several months had been broadcasting a “thriller” about the global crisis. After my live interview, the company’s journalists gathered in a small room with questions for me and one request ”Please tell us, where exactly is this southern Russia”. To satisfy their interest, and, moreover, the wishes of our customers and partners, we decided to describe in more detail the process of developing and implementing the programme “Southern Russia Versus the Global Crisis”. Using our experience of implementing
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