Executive summary November 2008

Research institutes from EU-27 plus Croatia and Turkey have been asked to analyse national positions on current developments in European politics, EU 27, Croatia and particularly, the Irish voters’ rejection of the Lisbon Treaty. This brief provides a Turkey are watching: summary of the Danish contribution to the EU-27 Watch no. 7, 2008 and with or without the concludes with a brief look to the comparative results of all the country Lisbon Treaty reports. The Irish No and the following uncertainty of the future of the Lisbon Treaty had a significant impact on the Danish opt-outs as it resulted in the postponement of the referendum plans to lift one or more of the four opt-outs. Furthermore, the positive attitude of the to abolish the opt-outs seemed to have decreased and by the time of writing the report, the only opt-out that Mette Buskjær Christensen the Danes were in favour of abolishing [email protected] was the defence policy opt-out. The www.diis.dk/mbc Danish Prime Minister, Anders Fogh

Rasmussen, was thought to be one of the favourite candidates for the position as President of the , but the Irish No might change the picture since his chances are believed to be related to his ability to remove the

Danish opt-outs.

In the remaining member states different implications of the Irish No for the future of Europe are discussed such as the slowdown of the process of enlargement, a two-speed EU and the communication gap between political EU-27 Watch is part of EU-CONSENT, a network of elites and citizens. Despite these negative excellence for joint research and teaching comprising implications, the strong consensus to more than 50 research institutes that addresses continue ratification irrespectively of the questions of the mutual reinforcing effects of Irish No marks a significant difference to deepening and widening of the EU. EU-CONSENT is the ratification crisis of 2005. supported by the ’s 6th Framework Programme.

DIIS BRIEF

INTRODUCTION The enlarged EU of 27 members is in a There is general agreement in the Danish process of reshaping its constitutional and Parliament (‘Folketing’) that reform of the political order, continuing membership talks Lisbon Treaty is not an option, since the with candidate countries, and taking on new treaty is already a political compromise obligations in international politics. The EU between competing interests; therefore, 25/27 Watch project sheds light on key changing the treaty text would open a issues and challenges of European ‘pandora’s box’ and (re)start a never-ending integration. Institutes from all 27 EU process. member states, and from Croatia and Turkey The Danish Prime Minister, Anders Fogh as well, are participating in the project. The Rasmussen, has recommended that Ireland aim is to give a fuller, comparative picture of negotiate opt-outs from the Lisbon Treaty, debates on European integration and current but should be cautious about ‘cherry picking’ developments in European politics in each from the document. The Danish model of of these countries. 1992 could be a model for Ireland. The In the new No. 7 edition of EU 27 Watch, 29 reference here is to the four Danish opt-outs research institutes were asked to analyse from 1992 that enabled to endorse national positions on the following issues: the after an initial thumbs- EU after the Irish referendum, French Presidency down to the referendum. and the future of the EU, public opinion and The Irish ‘No’ to the Lisbon Treaty also has European integration, political leadership in the a significant impact on the Danish opt-outs. EU, concentric circles around the EU, and the first Prior to the Lisbon Treaty referendum in ten years of the . Ireland, it seemed likely that the Danish opt- This brief summarizes the Danish outs regarding supranational co-operation on contribution to EU 27 Watch No. 7 by Justice and Home Affairs (JHA) and defence researchers at the Danish Institute for policy would be put to a referendum in International Studies (DIIS) - Maja Kluger autumn 2008. However, after the Irish Rasmussen and Jesper Kelstrup - and voters’ rejection of the Lisbon Treaty and concludes with a brief look at the the following uncertainty about the Treaty’s comparative results of all the country reports future, it is uncertain whether Denmark will (EU 27 Watch, Introduction, by Barbara have a referendum on one or more opt-outs Lippert and Tanja Leppik Bork). in the near future.

THE IRISH ‘NO’ AND THE IMPACT THE FRENCH PRESIDENCY’S ON THE DANISH OPT-OUTS AGENDA IS REGARDED AS AMBITIOUS IN DENMARK The Irish voters’ rejection of the Lisbon Treaty was met with disappointment by the With its wide focus on energy, defence and Danish government and the pro-EU parties, migration, in addition to the institutional but with enthusiasm by the parties and issues regarding the future of the Lisbon movements that oppose adoption of the Treaty, the French Presidency's agenda is treaty by Denmark without a referendum. considered ambitious in Denmark. The

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general expectation regarding the French PUBLIC OPINION AND Presidency is mixed. The Danish EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: government and parliament support the FOCUS ON DANISH OPT-OUTS priorities of the French Presidency on most points: The French focus on energy is seen According to the latest Eurobarometer as a welcome step for Denmark, which survey, the percentage of the Danish considers itself a front runner in the further population that has a positive image of the development of sustainable energy. EU is in line with the EU average. The Furthermore, prioritization of climate perception of the benefits of EU change is in tune with the global United membership is significantly above average in Nations Climate Change Conference Denmark (77 percent in Denmark vs. 54 ‘COP15’ to be held in Copenhagen in percent in the EU). No Danish poll has been December 2009. carried out in Denmark to measure the general perception of the EU in the spring The official Danish position towards of 2008. The Danish EU focus has recently developing the military dimension of been on the Danish opt-outs from European European Security and Defence Policy Security Defence Policy, Justice and Home (ESDP) and the intention of the French Affairs, the Euro, and Union citizenship. Presidency to strengthen ties with NATO According to a survey made by ‘Gallup’ are viewed as positive. The Danish from January 2008, there was support to government also supports the French abolish all three opt-outs: defence policy (60 immigration efforts and wants to enhance percent), JHA (58 percent), and the Euro (50 this area of EU co-operation. Yet, due to the pecent). Danes’ positive attitude toward heated Danish debate, the relatively tight abolishing the opt-outs seemed, however, to rules on family unification, and the Danish have decreased. According to a poll by EU opt-out from the JHA policy area, ‘Capacent Epinion’, Danes are presently in migration policy is a sensitive policy issue in favour of abolishing only the defence policy Denmark. opt-out. The Danish government and parliament support liberalizing the Common POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IN THE Agricultural Policy. This is, however, in EU: RASMUSSEN FOR PRESIDENT? opposition to French wishes to defend the In relation to political leadership in the EU, current model. While the ambitious agenda it is widely thought in Denmark that Prime may set EU in motion, it may be of concern Minister aspires to from a Danish point of view if Nicolas the position as President of the European Sarkozy creates too many unresolved EU Council, if he can gain the necessary support. issues before any possible referenda on the Besides Rasmussen, Britain’s Tony Blair and Danish opt-outs. Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg are thought to be favourites for the job; yet many, including the BBC, estimate Rasmussen to be a favourite for the job. The Prime Minister himself, however, has not formally announced his candidature.

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Rasmussen’s chances for beating his Southern ENP regions are centred on competitors are believed to be related to his counteracting radicalization, terrorism and ability to remove the Danish opt-outs. The political instability, whereas the challenges Euro opt-out is of special concern in this for the eastern ENP regions are related to regard as the French Secretary of State for securing human rights and freedom of the Europe, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, has declared that media and combating human trafficking. the President of the European Council should be from a country that participates THE FIRST TEN YEARS OF THE fully in EU’s economic cooperation. EURO Speculations about Rasmussen have received much attention in Denmark; but this is due Denmark does not participate in the third more to domestic speculations about the stage of European Economic and Monetary implications for Danish politics ‘after Prime Union, due to the Danish Euro opt-out. The Minister Rasmussen’ than to the concerns Danish , however, is closely tied to the and expectations about the outcome of the Euro through the fixed exchange rate policy possible introduction of a new political and Denmark’s participation in the fixed leadership structure in the EU. exchange rate cooperation, ERM II (Exchange Rate Mechanism two). Danes last CONCENTRIC CIRCLES AROUND voted on whether or not to adopt the Euro in 2000, when the measure was rejected by THE EU: TARGET AND ADAPT 53.2 percent of the voters. ENP TO DIFFERENT COUNTRIES AND REGIONS The discourse on the Euro prior to its introduction and in its infant years focused The Danish government finds that the mainly on uncertainty about how well the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Euro would perform, and on whether should be a merit-based system, in the sense Denmark could benefit at all from Euro that each country’s level of co-operation membership. Today – nearly ten years after with the EU depends on how willing and introducing the Euro – the debate has successful each ENP country has been in changed. The Euro has proven to be a undertaking reforms. This would open the strong and the European Central door for mutually permeable concentric Bank (ECB) to be a credible actor. circles, similar to EU’s policies towards the Disagreements now revolve on whether or Mediterranean, with different speeds of not it is beneficial for Denmark to pursue its integration depending on the speed of own monetary policy during a severe crisis democratic and market reforms undertaken involving asymmetric economic in each of the EU’s neighbouring countries. developments within the EU. The recently Generally, the Danish government finds it published DIIS investigation analyses the important to target and adapt the ENP to consequences of Denmark’s Euro opt-out the situation and challenges of individual from both an economic and political countries and regions. In this respect, perspective. It draws two main conclusions: Denmark sees different challenges and needs for the Southern ENP regions compared to 1. During stable economic periods, some those in the East. The challenges in the smaller but inevitable costs are incurred by not being a member.

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During unstable periods for the Danish opt-outs for Ireland were proposed by the economy, however, the costs of member states and discussed. The strong remaining outside the Eurozone are hard consensus that, this time, the ratification will to estimate, but they can be high. continue, despite the Irish ‘No’, marks a significant difference from the ratification 2. The Danish Euro opt-out’s greatest crisis of 2005. significance for Denmark is in relation to political influence on the development of In the member states, different implications EU’s economic and monetary policy. of the ‘No’ for the future of Europe are Denmark does not participate in the being discussed. Understandably, Croatia , which is presently the forum and Turkey fear becoming victims of the where agreement is reached on many current deadlock. In , Chancellor questions of broader economic relevance Merkel saw a dim future for enlargement, that also affect Denmark. Nor does and in France President Sarkozy underlined Denmark participate in the European that “to be able to open to the Balkans, to ’s Governing Council, Croatia, we need the Lisbon Treaty. If we which sets the Euro area’s interest rate want the enlargement, and we want the and therefore also the Danish interest enlargement, we need new institutions”. rate. The Irish ‘No’ also triggers fears or hopes in member states with regard to a two-speed The eight Danish parties in parliament are EU or an EU of internal concentric circles. split in half on whether to maintain or lift European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) the Danish Euro opt-out. The political will probably also survive, because the EU parties, business leaders and trade unions in lacks a consolidated strategic vision of how favour of lifting the Euro opt-out, believe to deal with its neighbours. While some that Euro membership will protect member states, like Poland, the Czech Denmark’s economy during economically Republic, , and Lithuania, insist that unstable periods and boost its influence there shall be no alternative to membership; within the European Union. However, the others speculate vaguely about privileged parties against introducing the Euro fear an partnership and about special status or erosion of Danish sovereignty; they are relations between the EU and neighbouring concerned that adopting the Euro would third countries. However, the country mean less say for Danes in how their reports on this issue were finalized before economy is managed. the Georgia-Russia crisis reminded the EU of lingering unresolved conflicts and brought new strains in relations with Russia. When looking at the questions of European THE COMPARATIVE PICTURE citizenship, the perceived communication The Irish 'No' in June 2008 was a blow to all gap and distance between the political elites expectations that the 10-year reform process and the citizens has developed into a of the treaty basis for the EU could now be permanent problem. The mainstream pro- concluded. Such routine solutions as EU parties lose out against both right-wing amendments, a second Irish referendum, or and left-wing sceptics and opponents.

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Interestingly, anti-EU and populist would. Economic tensions in an ever- tendencies in general seem not in sync with broader EU, which is strongly integrated the positive trends in public support for EU into the global finance system, cause concern integration in old member states (for in many member states. Therefore, the tenth example, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands) anniversary of the Euro on 1 January 2009 and new ones (for example, Poland, will probably occasion mixed comments on Romania). In Estonia, fear of Russia triggers its successes, which, depending on the a high level of support, while the idea of the success of the joint EU response to the EU as a protector against the storms of global financial crisis, may be superseded by globalization is a source of support in France pressing concerns over high prices and and Luxembourg. Opposite trends are inflation in nearly all member states. reported in Austria, Finland, Hungary, Italy This new edition of EU 27 Watch shows that and the UK. The reports offer different life without the Lisbon Treaty has a negative explanations for the low level of support: in impact on many of the 27 member states. Hungary for example, the low level of Furthermore, the process of enlargement has support is explained by a lack of information been postponed or slowed down, to the and the fact that “living standards in great disappointment of the candidate Hungary have hardly improved” during the countries. In the Danish case, a referendum last four years; while the low level of support to lift at least one of the four opt-outs was in Austria is seen as a sign of a “very deep- on the agenda for autumn 2008, until Irish rooted scepticism of the Austrian population voters rejected the Lisbon treaty. However, towards the European Union”. It will be EU institutions and EU governments are important to see, for example in connection trained in sub-optimal solutions, and with the elections in recalling that the Lisbon Treaty is already a June 2009, whether EU citizens will develop plan B seems to mitigate the damage so that more stable attitudes towards the EU or will it is less frightening this time. Reading and vote in a more volatile way. analysing the country reports is reassuring, in The soon ten-year-old Euro, the common the sense that EU remains robust even when currency of the EU, does not appear to the tides of European integration sweep contribute significantly to the development away some of the castles built on too high of a common , as some had hoped it expectations.

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