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Predatory Politics and Struggles of Peacemaking in Somalia

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Predatory Politics and Struggles of Peacemaking in Somalia PREDATORY POLITICS AND STRUGGLES OF PEACEMAKING IN SOMALIA by Roba D. Sharamo A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Conflict Analysis and Resolution Chair of Committee ! l "J._­ Graduate Program Director /'; ". ,j; .•.. '. 11f''? "', ".r,,; \ !"'::~:::~ "x..A4;/'\...A:r~.u,v ·)(...\..A.. A, c \.A.. Dean, School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution /'\ /1 If. '"1", I Date: \,~;'.AJ::\ \ j L .:~,)( # Summer Semester 2012 f \ George Mason University Fairfax, VA Predatory Politics and Struggles of Peacemaking in Somalia A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University by Roba D Sharamo Masters of Arts Brandeis University, 2002 Bachelor of Environmental Studies Kenyatta University, 1998 Director: Andrea Bartoli, Professor School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution Summer Semester 2012 George Mason University Fairfax, VA This work is licensed under a creative commons attribution-noderivs 3.0 unported license. ii DEDICATION This is dedicated to my beloved wife, Tunne. I extend a special tribute to sweet memories of my dad, Duba Sharamo and mum, Darare Duba for instilling in me a deep sense of commitment, discipline and desire for western education. This is also dedicated to the late Professor Wallace Warfield, a member of my Committee who unfortunately is not with us today. Finally, in a special way, I also dedicate this work to the thousands of victims and survivors of the excruciating civil war in Somalia. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are so many things that I am grateful for in the finalizing of this dissertation. First, I would like to thank the Almighty God for according me good health, strength, determination and the capability to accomplish this project. Second, I would like to thank my dear wife, brothers, sisters, in-laws and their families for their support, understanding and prayers. Third, a special gratitude to my Dissertation Committee: chair, Professor Terrence Lyons, and members Professor Thomas Flores and Professor Hazel McFerson for their intellectual and professional guidance and support to make this happen. Their intellectual push unleashed the best in me. Fourth, I would like to thank Mrs. Wendolyn Clarke for her support and editing assistance and colleagues at George Mason University‘s Sally Evans and staff of the Department of Information Technology for their invaluable formatting help. Fifth, I would like to thank my Somali friends, notably: Mohamed Yarrow, Khadija Ali, Hussein Halane and many others for facilitating and sharing their experiences and critical contacts – which contributed significantly to the success of the field work. Equally, gratitude goes to the various respondents for agreeing to share their experiences in the arduous search for peace in Somalia. Finally, many thanks to the leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kenya, the Institute for Security Studies and the United Nations Development Programme (Kenya) for their support and facilitation during the period of research and writing of this dissertation. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ................................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. viii List of Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................ix Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................ xii Chapter 1 Introduction to the Study ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1Background to the Study ........................................................................................................................ 4 1.2 Dynamics between the Political Economy of Conflict and Peace Processes ........................................ 8 1.2.1: Problem Statement ........................................................................................................................ 8 1.2.2 Operationalization of Key Concepts and Terms .......................................................................... 15 1.3 An Overview of the Research Methodology ....................................................................................... 19 1.3.1 Description of the Selected Case Study ....................................................................................... 19 1.3.2 Research Methods ........................................................................................................................ 22 1.3.3 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 26 Chapter 2 Political Economy of Civil Wars and Peace Processes ................................................................. 28 2.1 Theoretical Framework: Understanding the Political Economy of Civil Wars ................................... 28 2.1.1 Theories of Rebellion: Revisiting the Greed and Grievance Debates .......................................... 33 2.2 Transformative Capacities of News Wars ........................................................................................... 41 2.3 Shadow states and Institutionalization of War Economies ................................................................. 47 2.4 Understanding Wartime Rebel Institutions ......................................................................................... 58 2.5 Civil War Peacemaking: Role of Negotiations in Civil War Termination .......................................... 70 2.5.1 Conditions Favoring Successful Peace Negotiations: Ripeness Theory Revisited ...................... 72 2.5.2 Barriers to the Negotiation Process ............................................................................................. 79 2.6 Conclusion: Establishing the Gap in the Literature ............................................................................. 82 Chapter 3 Dynamics of State Collapse and Experiences of Early Peace Negotiations in Somalia ............... 86 3.1 The Path to Collapse and Overview of the Conflict ............................................................................ 86 3.2 Overview of the Early Interventions ................................................................................................. 102 v 3.3 The Turbulent Search for Peace ........................................................................................................ 114 3.4 The genesis, dynamics and promise of the Arta peace process ......................................................... 120 3.4.1 Troubles and Challenges of the Arta Peace Process .................................................................. 133 3.4.2 The imminent collapse of the TNG and the search of a successor regime ................................ 150 3.5 Genesis and the Promise of the Mbagathi Peace Process .................................................................. 156 3.5.1 Structure, Phases and Outcomes ................................................................................................ 162 3.6 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 179 Chapter 4 Predatory Politics and Struggles of Peacemaking in Somalia ..................................................... 181 4.1 Structure and Anatomy of Somalia‘s Predatory War Economies ..................................................... 182 4.1.1 Characteristics and Typology of Somali Wartime Actors ......................................................... 182 4.1.2 Institutionalization of Predation and Wartime Actors‘ Economic Agendas .............................. 187 4.1.3 Regional Administrative Structures and Resource Endowments ............................................... 194 4.1.4 Rings of Predation in Somalia: Sources of Revenue ................................................................. 203 4.1.5 Beyond the Veil of Clan Labels: Social Logic of Predation ...................................................... 266 4.2 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 280 Chapter 5 Impact on the Mbagathi Peace Process ....................................................................................... 281 5.1 The Trappings of Rewarding Predations and Entrenched Economic Agendas ................................. 284 5.2 Domination by the Lords of War over Civilian Institutions .............................................................. 294 5.3 Strong Parties not Necessarily a Panacea to Peace ........................................................................... 300 5.4 Violence as a Strategy for Predation and Spoiling Peace .................................................................. 302 5.5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 308 Chapter 6 Summary and Discussions
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