RAND Review, Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 2004
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Spring 2004 Vol. 28, No. 1 Get the Big Picture Editor-in-Chief RAND Review covers the big issues with an John Godges Associate Editor eye for the important details. Paul Steinberg Assistant Editor Christina Pitcher Proofreaders Miriam Polon Kelly Schwartz Art Director Ronald Miller Designer Eileen Delson La Russo Production Editor Denise Constantine Circulation Christine Troncoso Web Producer Brett Grodeck Editorial Board Dominic Brewer, David Egner, Jerrold Green, Bruce Hoffman, James Hosek, James Kahan, Iao Katagiri, Kevin McCarthy, Elizabeth McGlynn, K. Jack Riley, Shirley Ruhe, Mary Vaiana RAND Board of Trustees Ann McLaughlin Korologos (chairman), Bruce Karatz (vice chairman), Carl Bildt, Harold Brown, Frank C. Carlucci, Lovida H. Coleman, Jr., Robert Curvin, Pedro Jose Greer, Jr., Rita E. Hauser, Karen Elliott House, Jen-Hsun Huang, Paul G. Kaminski, Lydia H. Kennard, Philip Lader, Arthur Levitt, Lloyd N. Morrisett, Paul H. O’Neill, Amy B. Pascal, Patricia Salas Pineda, John Edward Porter, John S. Reed, Donald B. Rice, James E. Rohr, Jerry I. Speyer, James A. Thomson RAND Review is published periodically by the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit institution. The mission of the RAND Corporation is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. Opinions are those of the authors and do not reflect positions taken by RAND, its board, or its sponsors. LETTERS Send letters to: Editor, RAND Review, 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, or email [email protected]. PERMISSIONS For information about using mate- rial published in RAND Review, visit www.rand.org/ publications/permissions.html. COPIES For hard copies of RAND Review, call (877) 584-8642 (toll free) or (310) 451-7002 (outside the United States); send a fax to (310) 451-6915; or email [email protected]. REPORTS Most reports cited in these pages may be purchased. 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Message from the Editor former U.S. Army captain who served with Special Spring 2004 Vol. 28, No. 1 Forces in the Dominican Republic and then in AVietnam, who founded the RAND Corporation’s terrorism research program in 1972, and who worked for 4 News nine years as deputy chairman of one of the world’s • Positive social influences against smoking largest private investigative and security consulting firms, • Closing a disparity in depression Brian Michael Jenkins has had ample opportunity to • Varied levels of homeland preparedness observe crime and conflict from multiple vantage points. • South Korean attitudes toward America in flux His experiences make him uniquely qualified to assess • Trends that will alter the way we work America’s current approach to terrorists and other ene- mies. He finds it “obsolete.” Despite the fact that the Cold War ended more than 8 Perspectives ten years ago, that a gang of hijackers dramatically High Standards or No Standards? demonstrated the destructiveness of new modes of con- The unclear implications of “No Child Left flict more than two years ago, and that U.S. troops are Behind” dying daily at the hands of those who wield far less mili- tary might, we in the United States continue to view our enemies through the “narrow bores” of our traditional Five Pillars of Democracy military capabilities, Jenkins writes. We have adapted 10 How the West can promote an Islamic incrementally, and we remain powerful, but the transfor- reformation mations necessary in our planning and doing have been By Cheryl Benard impeded by the lack of transformation in our thinking. Jenkins would be the first to admit that many of his arguments have been made before, at least in piecemeal Redefining Counterterrorism fashion, by other authors at RAND and elsewhere, espe- The terrorist leader as CEO cially since Sept. 11, 2001. He believes, however, that the 14 By Bruce Hoffman message has yet to sink in that the new threats to national security represent not just temporary aberrations but fun- damental changes in the ecology of conflict. The root of his concern is neither any single U.S. COVER STORY administration nor any single component of our national Redefining the Enemy security structure but rather an accretion of outmoded 16 The world has changed, but our mindset has not habits of thought that pervade throughout the structure. By Brian Michael Jenkins Jenkins contends that we in America must reconsider our planning scenarios, reorganize our forces for rapid adap- tation to new situations, reorient our intelligence efforts so that we can “get smart fast,” and revivify our interna- Swollen Waistlines, tional alliances—but that each of these requirements pre- Swollen Costs supposes that we first rethink our assumptions. 24 Obesity worsens disabilities and weighs on —John Godges health budgets By Roland Sturm and Darius Lakdawalla Commentary 30 We Need a Vision for Wind Tunnels— Not Tunnel Vision By Philip S. Antón On the Cover An American soldier mans a gun atop an armored vehicle in the Khost area of Afghanistan near the Pakistani border in the early morning of March 30. U.S. troops were sweeping through the hardscrabble villages in the rugged region, searching for weapons and information as part of an effort to cut off hiding places for al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives. AP/WIDE WORLD PHOTOS/EMILIO MORENATTI RAND REVIEW / SPRING 2004 3 News African American Teens Are Less Likely to Become Regular Smokers Researchers know that early smok- try smoking early but then quit The study found that after age ing experimentation among teens is early on,” said Phyllis Ellickson, 13 or 14, the social environment of a known risk factor for escalation lead author of the study. African American youth includes to regular smoking later on, but is The study, published in the positive influences—such as a this true for all racial and ethnic February issue of the American stronger likelihood of communi- groups? A new RAND study indi- Journal of Public Health, tracked cating with parents about social cates that, compared with other more than 6,000 African Ameri- problems and of encountering teenagers, “African American youth can, white, Latino, and Asian parental disapproval of smoking— American youth for ten years, from that are strong enough to offset ages 13 to 23. other risk factors for smoking, such By age 13, a total of 69 percent as doing poorly in school. The social environment of of Latino and 62 percent of African “Our results suggest we might African American youth American youth in the study had be able to stop more young smok- tried smoking, compared with 52 ers from developing a regular habit includes positive influences percent of whites. But by age 15, by helping parents talk with their that are strong enough only 7 percent of the African children, improving family bonds, to offset other risk factors American teenagers were regular and dampening peer pressure to smokers, in contrast to about 20 smoke,” Ellickson said. ■ for smoking. percent of both whites and Latinos. New Interventions Lead to Improvements for Minorities Suffering from Depression Following on the heels of national to significant, long-lasting benefits The interventions made it easier calls for approaches to reduce for African American and Latino to obtain treatments—either med- health disparities between whites patients. ications or psychotherapy—if nec- and minorities, researchers at “These interventions signifi- essary. RAND and the University of Cali- cantly improved health in the long Among all participants, the fornia at Los Angeles have shown run, for historically underserved interventions caused a small overall that new interventions improve the minority groups at risk for poor improvement in depression out- way that primary care medical health outcomes,” said Kenneth comes. But the improvements practices treat depression, leading Wells, principal investigator of the among minorities were large study published in the April edi- enough to erase the disparities in tion of the Archives of General Psy- outcomes between minorities and chiatry. whites in standard care, particularly “These interventions As part of a random controlled in the psychotherapy-based version significantly improved health in trial, primary care practices across of the intervention. different sites in the United States Minorities continued to bene- the long run, for historically were assigned either to their usual fit from the intervention five years underserved minority groups care for depression or to interven- later. In fact, their improvement at at risk for poor health tions that provided the practices five years was the largest outcome and patients with education about improvement found in the study at outcomes.” depression treatments and resources. any time period. ■ 4 RAND REVIEW / SPRING 2004 WWW.RAND.ORG News “Frontline” Responders Vary in Preparedness for Terrorist Attacks Much of the responsibility for pro- access to federal intelligence infor- ing it filtered through the states,” tecting the American people against mation. In contrast, more than Davis said. terrorist attacks devolves to state three-fourths of state emergency Within each discipline (such as and local