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(Marine Fisheries) WWF-Pakistan Muhammad Moazzam Khan Technical Advisor (Marine Fisheries) WWF-Pakistan Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 14 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,2007 2001,1997,2008,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate 25 0.320.09 50 0.230.05 100 0.130.03 150 0.080.02 Years /decade Mean sea level rise at Arabian Sea It is found in coastal waters usually forming small schools. It is primarily caught by gillnet, however, at time it is harvested by purse seiners. Usually it is landed is fresh form and salted Saltwater intrusion in the estuaries SANHRO DHAND VEGETATION HIGH WATER LINE CHOLARI DHAND WATER BODY WATER BODY JATI DRAIN TIDAL LINK DRAIN SHAH SAMANDO CREEK 35.00 v v v PAKISTAN 30.00 v v J v u n e 1 v 9 0 i v 7 ch ra 25.00 Ka v v INDIA 20.00 J 2 u 9 n 8 e 1 N il o 1 r v 8 p . A 1 9 9 5 9 M 3 a 2 y 0 9 1 1 9 O 9 y c a 9 t o 15.00 M b e r 1 9 1 7 J u n e 1 36 v 9 9 9 . 1 N 8 ov ovemb N er 1922 10.00 A p r il 1 9 0 1 Dec. 1919 v 5.00 60.00 65.00 70.00 75.00 FIGURE 17. Track of Tropical Cyclones which entered circle of 300 nm radius centered on Karachi. Tropical Cyclones Tracks vs. Inensity 1985-2005 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Classification 2007 N. Ind Ocean Tropical Cyclones Max 6-hr Tropical Max Gust Cat. Sustained Landfall Cyclones (Kt) 6-hr (Kt) Akash 1 65 80 05/15 BD & MYN Gonu 5 140 170 06/06 Oman Yemyin TS 50 65 06/26 Pakistan 04B TS 45 55 05B TS 45 55 Sidr 4 135 165 11/15 BD Satellite Image + Observed Track (Tropical Cyclone Gonu) 4-5 June 2007 Observed Track CYCLONE PHET Damage in Oman RAIN IN BALOCHISTAN BY PHET AREA Rain (in mm) GWADAR 370 JIWANI 208 PASNI 139 DEATH TOLL BY CYCLONE PHET DEATH TOLL PAKISTAN 15 OMAN 24 INDIA 05 TOTAL 44 Tropical Cyclone Yemyin Rainfall Rate Observed Track Yemyin before Landfall JRA-25 Analysis Wind speed (m/s) + direction at 700 hPa Air Temp & Wind Vertical Profile 64E 00 UTC 26-06-2007 00 UTC 26-06-2007 Time Series Time Arabian Sea & Bay Bengal of & Bay Sea Arabian (1985 Average SST for June (1985 - 2007) - 31.00 2007) 30.50 for 30.00 SST 29.50 SST (celsius) SST 29.00 28.50 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Years Arabian Sea Bay of Bengal Linear (Arabian Sea) Linear (Bay of Bengal) Comparison of Sea Surface Temperature for Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea (2000 - 2007) Arabian sea is showing higher SST values compared to Bay of Bengal since 2000 Weather Related Changes in Arabian Sea . Higher SST in North Arabian sea is giving rise to formation of more frequent and intense Cyclones . Previously storms used to re-curve towards Rann of Kutch . Shift of track, under climate change, towards west indicates that Sindh-Makran coast may be affected in future . Yemyin landfall at Pasni is the recent example . Sea Level Rise will result in more destructive storm surges Area Affected by Sea Intrusion DISTRICT AREA (ha) / TALUKA (ha) Fully Partially Total Not Eroded Eroded Eroded Thatta 1,324,606 348,093 186,400 534,493 790,113 Shah Bundar 297,707 205,940 35,055 240,995 56,712 Ghora Bari 94,686 2,986 9,867 12,853 81,833 Kharo Chan 192,902 39,147 8,944 48,091 144,811 Mirpur Sakro 300,629 4,503 20,057 24,560 276,069 Jati 357,215 49,411 112,069 161,480 195,735 Keti Bundar 81,467 46,106 408 46,514 34,953 Badin 323,749 14,595 17,978 32,573 291,176 Golarchi 179,798 2,764 9,736 12,500 167,298 Badin 143,951 11,831 8,242 20,073 123,878 Total 1,648,355 392,688 204,378 597,066 1,051,289 Reconstructed catch data from 1950-2010 1,400 a) Industrial discards 1,200 Subsistence 1,000 Supplied to FAO ) 3 800 Artisanal 600 Catch ( t x10 ( Catch Industrial 400 200 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Reconstructed catch data from 1950-2010 1,400 b) Engraulidae 1,200 Penaeidae Istiophoridae 1,000 Carcharhinidae ) 3 Sciaenidae 800 Carangidae 600 Ariidae Catch ( t x 10 t x ( Catch 400 Scombridae Clupeidae 200 Other taxa 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year FLEET SIZE FLEET SIZE Trawlers Total 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Potential threats of Climate Change on Fisheries Higher seawater temperature Sea level rise Increase in frequency/intensity of cyclone Changes in precipitation quantity, location and timings El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) POTENTIAL THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES FACTORS EFFECTS IMPLICATIONS Higher estuarine Increased stratification Reduced fish stocks temperature Raised metabolic rates. Enhanced fish stocks and aquaculture Enhanced primary productivity. production Shift in location and size Potential loss of species or alteration in of the potential range of species composition. some species Reduced water quality Altered stocks and species composition Changes in timing and Potential loss species or shift in success of migration, composition spawning and peak abundance Higher seawater temperatures (0.6-0.7oC increase in tropical regions) POTENTIAL THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES FACTORS EFFECTS IMPLICATIONS Changes in sea More frequent HAB. Impact on abundance and species surface Less dissolved oxygen. composition of fish stocks temperature Altered ecosystems. Altered plankton composition Enhanced primary Changes species composition productivity Longer growing season. Increased production. Lower mortality in winters. Enhanced growth rates Higher seawater temperatures (0.6-0.7oC increase in tropical regions) POTENTIAL THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES FACTORS EFFECTS IMPLICATIONS Changes in sea Changes in timing and Potential loss of species or shift in surface success of migrations, composition temperature spawning and peak abundance. Change in location and Offset species composition size of suitable range for particular species Damage to coral reefs Reduced recruitment and habitat and other fragile damage ecosystem POTENTIAL THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES FACTORS EFFECTS IMPLICATIONS Changes in Changes in fish Altered abundance and composition of precipitation, migration and fish stocks quantity, location recruitment patterns as and timing. well as in recruitment success. Changes in fish Altered abundance, composition and migration and abundance of fish stocks. Fishermen recruitment pattern forced to migrate more and expend more effort. Lower water availability Conflict with other water users. POTENTIAL THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES FACTORS EFFECTS IMPLICATIONS Sea level rise Loss of land Loss of aquaculture. Changes to estuary Shifts in species abundance, distribution systems and composition of fish stocks Salt water infusion into Damage to capture fisheries. Reduced groundwater freshwater availability to a shift to brackish water species. Loss of coastal Reduced recruitment and stocks for ecosystems such as capture fisheries. Worsened exposure to mangrove forests. waves and storm surge and inundation of potential areas. Sea level rise (2.5 to 3.0 cm increase during last 50 years in Vietnam) POTENTIAL THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES FACTORS EFFECTS IMPLICATIONS Increase in Large wave and storm Impact on recruitment and stock. Higher frequency and/or surges. Flooding of direct risk to fishermen and higher capital intensity of potential areas. cost for infrastructure. storm Draught Lower water quality. Loss of fish stocks. Lower productivity. Salinity changes Changes in river flow Reduced fish stocks. Migration of fisherfolk. POTENTIAL THREATS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FISHERIES FACTORS EFFECTS IMPLICATIONS El Nino- Changed location and Changes in the distribution and Southern timing of ocean currents productivity of open sea fisheries Oscillation and upwelling alters nutrient supply in surface waters and primary productivity. Changed ocean Reduced productivity especially of reef temperature and fisheries bleached corals Altered rainfall patterns Sea impacts for precipitation trends, brings flood and drought drought and flooding. DISCERNABLE RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE Extension of distributional boundary of small pelagics Extension of depth of occurrence and Phenological changes Vivekanandan (2011) EXTENSION OF DISTRIBUTIONAL BOUNDARY OF SMALL PELAGICS Indian Oil Sardinella (Sardinella longiceps) Restricted distribution between latitude 8oN and 14oN and longitude 75oE and 77oE (Malabar upwelling zone along the southwest coast of India) Annual average sea surface temperature ranges from 27 to 29oC. Until 1985, almost the entire catch of oil sardine was from the Malabar upwelling zone The catch was very low or no catch from latitudes north of 14oN along the west coast EXTENSION OF DISTRIBUTIONAL BOUNDARY OF SMALL PELAGICS Indian Oil Sardinella (Sardinella longiceps) In the last two decades the catches from latitude above 14oN are increasing, contributing about 15% (2006) Surface waters of the Indian seas warming by 0.04 oC per decade Warmer tongue (27-28.5oC) of the surface waters is expanding to latitudes north of 14oN Enabling the oil sardine to extend their range to northern latitudes in both East and West coasts. Distribution of Indian Oil Sardinella CLIMATE RELATED EVENTS RESULTING IN INCREASED OIL SARDINELLAS PRODUCTION EXTENSION OF DISTRIBUTIONAL BOUNDARY OF SMALL PELAGICS Indian Oil Sardinella (Sardinella longiceps) Although Indian oil sardinella fisheries seems to be an important component of the small pelagic fisheries of Pakistan. However, recent increased landings especially along Gwader coast may be attributed to climate change !!! 2010 2007 2004 2001 1998 1995 1992 1989 1986 1983 1980 1977 1974 1971 1968 1965 1962 1959 1956 1953 1950 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 INDIAN
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