A&A 569, A47 (2014) Astronomy DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201423966 & c ESO 2014 Astrophysics Monte Carlo methods to calculate impact probabilities? H. Rickman1;2, T. Wisniowski´ 1, P. Wajer1, R. Gabryszewski1, and G. B. Valsecchi3;4 1 P.A.S. Space Research Center, Bartycka 18A, 00-716 Warszawa, Poland e-mail:
[email protected] 2 Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Box 516, 75120 Uppsala, Sweden 3 IAPS-INAF, via Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Roma, Italy 4 IFAC-CNR, via Madonna del Piano 10, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino (FI), Italy Received 9 April 2014 / Accepted 28 June 2014 ABSTRACT Context. Unraveling the events that took place in the solar system during the period known as the late heavy bombardment requires the interpretation of the cratered surfaces of the Moon and terrestrial planets. This, in turn, requires good estimates of the statistical impact probabilities for different source populations of projectiles, a subject that has received relatively little attention, since the works of Öpik(1951, Proc. R. Irish Acad. Sect. A, 54, 165) and Wetherill(1967, J. Geophys. Res., 72, 2429). Aims. We aim to work around the limitations of the Öpik and Wetherill formulae, which are caused by singularities due to zero denominators under special circumstances. Using modern computers, it is possible to make good estimates of impact probabilities by means of Monte Carlo simulations, and in this work, we explore the available options. Methods. We describe three basic methods to derive the average impact probability for a projectile with a given semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination with respect to a target planet on an elliptic orbit.