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Mali, 2016 Agricultural Season 2016 Agricultural Season Resulting from All Possible Planting Opportunities for Each Pixel

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Mali, 2016 Agricultural Season 2016 Agricultural Season Resulting from All Possible Planting Opportunities for Each Pixel Africa RiskView END OF SEASON REPORT | MALI (2016) This Africa RiskView End of Season Report is a publication by the African Risk Capacity (ARC). The report discusses Africa RiskView’s estimates of rainfall, drought and population affected, comparing them to information from the ground and from external sources. It also provides the basis of a validation exercise of Africa RiskView, which is conducted in each country at the end of an insured season. This exercise aims at reviewing the performance of the model and ensuring that the country’s drought risk is accurately reproduced by Africa RiskView for drought monitoring and insurance coverage. Highlights: Rainfall: Affected Populations: Overall good performance of the 2016 rainy season, with nor- Africa RiskView estimates that around 530,000 people were mal to above normal cumulative rainfall totals at national and affected by drought conditions in localised areas of central and regional level. However, localised areas in central and north- north-eastern Mali; this figure remains below the modelled eastern Mali experienced erratic rainfall and an early end of historical average of around 1.1 million people. the season with little to no rainfall in October 2016. ARC Risk Pool: Drought: Due to the overall good performance of the season and de- The end-of-season WRSI values were in line with the bench- spite localised drought impacts in central and north-eastern mark selected by the country in most of Mali, with the excep- Mali, the trigger for a payout from ARC Ltd was not reached at tion of some areas in the central and north-eastern parts of the end of the 2016 agricultural season. the country, where below benchmark WRSI values prevailed at the end of the 2016 agricultural season. Rainfall national and regional level, the season started on time in May, The rainy season in Mali lasts from May to October. During the and progressed with normal to above normal rainfall until the end 2016 season, the cumulative rainfall totals varied significantly of the season in October. In parts of central (Segou) and north- across the country, in line with the expected geographical varia- eastern Mali (Gao, Tombouctou), the season ended earlier than tions. In south-western Mali, particularly in Sikasso and the south- normal, with below normal rainfall in October. At département ern parts of Kayes and Koulikoro regions, over 1,000 mm of rain (admin 2) level, the rainfall data highlights some localised issues in were received (and up to over 1,200 mm in some parts of Sikasso). central and north-eastern Mali. In Yorosso (northern Sikasso), San Further north, in the northern parts of Kayes and Koulikoro, rain- and Tominan (south-eastern Segou), some rainfall deficits were fall was generally between 600 and 1,000 mm, while it was slightly recorded during the second half of the season. Similarly, Gourma- lower (500-700 mm) in central Mali, namely in Segou, Mopti and Rharous and Tomboctou in eastern Tombouctou region experi- north-western Koulikoro. In the north-eastern parts of the country enced erratic rainfall and an early end of the season with little to (southern Tombouctou and Gao), drier conditions prevailed, with no rain in October 2016. cumulative rainfall totals between 200 and 500 mm. Compared to Drought the long-term average (1983-2015), satellite rainfall estimates The in-country Technical Working Group (TWG) customised Africa suggest that normal to above normal rains were received through- RiskView to model the impact of drought on maize, an increasingly out the country. In parts of south-western Mali (Sikasso), up to important staple crops in Mali. The planting window, during which over 150% of the long-term average was received. Similarly, Gao farmers usually plant their crops, lasts from late May to early July and southern Tomboctou regions in north-eastern Mali recorded in southern Mali, early June to mid-July in the central parts of the 150% to over 200% of average rainfall during the 2016 season. country and from mid-June to late July in the north. The TWG Regarding the spatial and temporal distribution of the rains, an chose to use an average aggregation method for the WRSI, which analysis of dekadal (10-day) rainfall estimates suggests that at means Africa RiskView uses the average end-of-season WRSI value For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org Africa RiskView END OF SEASON REPORT | MALI (2016) Cumulative rainfall in mm, Cumulative rainfall in % of 1983-2015 average, 21 May-31 Oct 2016, Mali (ARC2) 21 May-31 Oct 2016, Mali (ARC2) End-of-season WRSI, Mali, End-of-season WRSI compared to 2015, Mali, 2016 agricultural season 2016 agricultural season resulting from all possible planting opportunities for each pixel. pockets of below benchmark WRSI values can be found in parts of central Mali, particularly in southern Segou, eastern koulikoro and According to Africa RiskView, the water requirements of the north-western Sikasso, as well as in most agricultural areas in reference crop (maize) were fully satisfied in parts of south- Tomboctou. Above benchmark values prevailed in most of Gao. It western Mali, particularly in Sikasso, northern and southern Kayes is important to note that the 2015 season performed well in most and southern and western Koulikoro. In the central parts of the of Mali, according to Africa RiskView and reports from the ground, country (central Kayes, eastern Koulikoro, Mopti and Segou), and therefore the benchmark is higher than average WRSI condi- average WRSI values (80-95) prevailed, based on FEWS NET’s tions calculated over several past years. WRSI classification, with pockets of mediocre WRSI values (60-80) in northern Segou and northern Mopti. Africa RiskView estimates Africa RiskView’s WRSI calculations are slightly than FEWS NET’s that the maize water requirements were not satisfied in the north regional WRSI model, which indicates that average to very good -eastern parts of the country (southern Tomboctou and Gao). WRSI values prevailed at the end of October in most of Mali. According to FEWS NET, the WRSI was in line with or better than Compared to the benchmark selected by the TWG to model nor- the median year, with the exception of localised areas in central mal conditions in the country, which was defined as the previous Mali. FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), a composite indicator year, the season performed normally in most of Mali. However, For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org Africa RiskView END OF SEASON REPORT | MALI (2016) Estimated population affected by drought, Estimated population affected by drought, Mali, 2016 agricultural season Mali, 1983-2016 based on vegetation and temperature information, also suggests 2016, found that 180,000 people were severely food insecure that the conditions for crop development were positive through- (Phase 3 or worse) at the time of the analysis. This figure was out most of the 2016 agricultural season. projected to increase to around 500,000 people for the peak lean season. The most affected areas were found to be the north- Information on agricultural production used for the 2016 Cadre eastern parts of Mali (Tombouctou, Gao and Kidal regions), due to Harmonisé exercise suggests that the 2016 agricultural season the impact of civil insecurity in these regions. In some parts of experienced a normal to above normal performance. Nonetheless, central and south-western Mali, localised dry conditions, floods localised production shortfalls were reports due to poor rains, and other factors were cited as main factors affecting food insecu- floods and other factors (pests etc.). Overall, an 11% increase in rity. crop production is expected compared to 2015, at the national level. ARC Risk Pool Affected Populations Mali has been a member of the ARC Risk Pool since 2015/16. During the current pool, the country did not receive a payout, Based on the customisation of Africa RiskView, around 4.2 million given that the attachment level selected by the Government of people are vulnerable to drought in Mali. Of these, the model Mali (the equivalent of around 1.2 million people drought affected estimates that nearly 530,000 people are affected by drought people as modelled by Africa RiskView) was not reached. conditions at the end of the 2016 season. These are located most- ly in central Mali, namely in Koutiala (95,000 people) and Yorosso The in-country Technical Working Group with support from the (45,000) départements in north-west Sikasso, Barouéli (10,000), ARC Secretariat is currently reviewing the customisation of Africa Bla (48,000), San (145,000) and Tominian (92,000) in southern RiskView in view of Mali’s participation in the 2017/18 ARC Risk Segou, Koulikoro département in south-eastern Koulikoro region Pool. The exercise aims at reviewing the drought index parame- (5,000), as well as in Gourma-Rharous (5,000) and Tombouctou ters used by the model, as well as updating input data such as the (85,000) départements in Tombouctou region in the north-east. vulnerability profile and poverty information used by Africa Compared to historical drought years modelled by Africa RiskView. Potential improvements to the model will help ensure RiskView, it appears that the number of people affected in 2016 that drought risks are accurately reproduced for drought monitor- remains below the modelled historical average of around 1.1 ing and insurance coverage and that the modelling continues to million people. Mali’s major droughts occurred in the 1980s and
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